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[Thick Thighs Save Lives]

End of the live service domination and market saturation

Live services will continue to be massively successful and dominate top played and grossing charts, undoubtedly, but not every studio will want to develop a live service game anymore. Developers and publishers will pivot back to premium game development. Oversaturation in the PC and console markets is evident, with a handful of titles monopolizing playtime; 60% of playtime is eaten up by 19 games and 75% by the top 33 by playtime.

Entering a fiercely competitive market, especially for live service projects, gaming companies face challenges in 2024. Many live service games in the pipeline will hit the market, each vying for success. The industry, having swiftly descended from the engagement peaks of 2020 and 2021, is undergoing restructuring, making funding for massive projects a lower priority. Venture capital is scarce, making it more challenging for independent studios to secure funding.

New hardware, more layoffs, AI in game dev: Analyst predictions for 2024

Every year, we turn to a panel of trusted analysts to ask them what they see coming down the road, and ask them to asse…

www.gamesindustry.biz

 

[Giallo Corsa]

One can only hope

 

[hemo memo]

I would cry from happiness

 

[StereoVsn]

You can’t just “pivot”. AAA game development takes 5-8 years now. If they pivot in 2024, we will see next games as either cross gen or exclusive for next gen consoles.

 

[Bernoulli]

The only Good GAAS is Fortnite, nothing else comes close and never will

 

[winjer]

I hope this will become true.
But knowing the industry for so many decades, it's more likely most CEO will continue to burn millions trying to gamble on the GaaS, until something sticks

 

[DenchDeckard]

please be true!

 

[Robb]

Developers and publishers will pivot back to premium game development.

 

[GHG]

I think we are already witnessing the destruction in relation to this. The point around saturation is real.

More studios will fall victim.

 

[Guilty_AI]

The end is nigh Men_in_Boxes

 

[Topher]

 

[Punished Miku]

Pretty similar to the MMO gold rush / bust. Anything that is extensively time intensive will only support a few big players. All the rest will require massive investment to even attempt to get in, and then huge chance of it failing.

 

[Godot25]

I doubt that. I mean. Yeah. Live service business is tough one to break into, but if you manage to break into it, you are in for goldmine. No big publisher will resist that temptation. Also. It's good to get you live service going in 2024 before GTA VI will come in 2025 and kill almost everything. Not to mention, it's almost impossible to pivot away once you have production going.

But I can see that many smaller devs/publishers will be more cautions.

Also, kudos to Jimbo for getting on live service train at exact "right" time

 

[poppabk]

It does have some of that same feel as the MMO rush. The only problem is that AAA doesn't seem like a safer bet.

 

[clarky]

Not a chance. Shits here to stay like it or not.

The cost of developing a AAA pay once and done type deal are way too expensive these days. See Spiderman costs compared to Spiderman 2. Your game doesn't sell in the millions and you are toast.

They need multiple revenue streams, You don't need to be Fortnite to make money in the GAAS space.

 

[Doctor Hades]

As long as publishers continue to release a steady stream of quality single player games then I personally could not care less about what happens with live service games as I do not play them and have no interest in playing them.

My only concern was with Sony and the news that they were focusing more on live service titles as the reason I considered the PS4 and now the PS5 as my favourite gaming consoles is because of the quality of the single player games. However, I understand that developers like Naughty Dog have cancelled their live service The Last of Us game due to concerns about post-release support so I can only hope that other publishers follow suit. However, I recall reading that Sony are considering releasing an MMORPG based on the Horizon franchise, again something I would have no interest in.

The problem with live service games for me is that they require far too much time to play and are usually rife with microtransactions, season passes and all the other crap that makes it feel like you have paid for only a small part of the overall game.

 

[Tomi]

Thank god

Live service games are trash, and i hope they all will die soon

Give us more Elden Ring, rdr 2 , horizon, last of us games!!!

 

[Xtib81]

Please be true. One of the worst trends in gaming History.

 

[vaibhavpisal]

Live service elements are not terribly interesting. Am playing Fallout 76, i dont even visit their shop.

One aspect I do like about such games is seemingly endless content. If you like something, you can play for long time.

Also, map and atmosphere in FO76 is basically perfected after years of iteration. Getting strong Fallout 2 vibes from big landmarks.

 

[amigastar]

Is GTA V Online a Live Service game?

 

[Naked Lunch]

I dont see it.
Its all the youngsters play these days. Its all they know about gaming really.

 

[Gojiira]

As much as I wish every game was Elden Ring,Baldurs Gate 3,Metal Gear,Resident Evil 2-4-7-8 etc I cant help but think games like the rumoured Horizon MMO is just a perfect idea, if all it sets out to be is a huge scale Monster Hunter with Machines with that kind of armour/weapon crafting it would be amazing and ironically much closer to the original pitch. Im not a huge fan of GaaS but there could be some genuinely good ones besides Fortnite.

 

[vaibhavpisal]

Is GTA V Online a Live Service game?

I think so, yes.

Live service as I understand has elements that change on weekly basis like quests, cosmetic items etc.

 

[MagiusNecros]

The only Good GAAS is Fortnite, nothing else comes close and never will

It's actually Deep Rock Galactic. Thanks for the laugh.

 

[Damigos]

I am dreaming about the death of live service gatcha mobile sh*t freemium free to pay microdlc surprise mechanics lootbox battlepass and every other tragic bullsh*t of a category that exists for a lot of time.
I hope 2024 will end them all.

 

[Felessan]

Pretty similar to the MMO gold rush / bust. Anything that is extensively time intensive will only support a few big players. All the rest will require massive investment to even attempt to get in, and then huge chance of it failing.

You know that MOBA is a spinnoff of MMO.
Western pure MMO on decline, they just lack drive and ideas, eastern one doing just fine, especially after they moved to crossplatform with mobiles.

with a handful of titles monopolizing playtime; 60% of playtime is eaten up by 19 games and 75% by the top 33 by playtime

Whats funny is that this ratio actually ease up over time, games become diversified (in a good way) and playerbase spread across. 10 years ago it was way worse that it is now.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

The hatred for Live Service games on NeoGaf is immature and unreasonable.

Many Live Service games show how excellent the Live Service model can be, i.e. Warframe, and No Man's Sky. Players of those games have been consistently and increasingly delighted by the steady stream of new content updates.

Heck, there are a few indie games I've fucking loved that I wish were Live Service in that they provided a steady stream of content updates; Astroneer and Subnautica.

Not all Live Service games are MP shooters, MMO-lites, or even MP in general.

Sony's Live Service push has caused some of you here to completely shit the bed. I get it. Out of all the Live Service games they've shown and announced so far, only Helldivers 2 looks interesting (primarily because it's not a PvP thing, but a MP PvE game). Sony's Live Service push should have targeted PvE/PvP games like Genshin Impact and GTA Online.

That said, it doesn't mean all Live Service games are shit or of no value. Sea Of Thieves players are another example of gamers who have seen a game go from throw-away trash to addictive AF. The Live Service model is good when done well in games that people actually want to play, i.e. PvE and Co-Op PvE, instead of every dev chasing trends and making MP extraction shooters or MP PvP Battle Royale games.

 

[clarky]

Is GTA V Online a Live Service game?

Any game that changes over time, new maps, modes, skins etc i'd say is a live service title.

Personally I don't see the issue when done right. Miles better than the old expansion/map pack way of doing things.

The issue is these days is the way they seem to sell you unfinished products with content ripped out only to the drip feed it back into the game over the course of "seasons"

Like I said if a game launches feature complete with what is expected (or is FTP), THEN adds stuff over time for "free", funded buy MTX then I really don't see the problem. Problem is this very rarely happens.

 

[Kupfer]

Hopefully in 20 - 30 years the new gamers will be taught about this dark era of gaming by a fat bearded Youtuber.
Afterwards, they'll share this information in the school playground, laugh at the stupidity of gamers from the 2010s and 2020s and go to the nearest gamestore together to check out the latest physical releases because their parents raised their kids with values that matter

 

[Doctor Hades]

Is GTA V Online a Live Service game?

Absolutely, yes. A live service game to me is basically any game that can only be played online, whether solo or with other players, so that includes MMORPGs and games like Diablo IV, Destiny 2 and GTA Online. GTA V is a separate single player game though which comes with GTA Online.

 

[vaibhavpisal]

The hatred for Live Service games on NeoGaf is immature and unreasonable.

Many Live Service games show how excellent the Live Service model can be, i.e. Warframe, and No Man's Sky. Players of those games have been consistently and increasingly delighted by the steady stream of new content updates.

Heck, there are a few indie games I've fucking loved that I wish were Live Service in that they provided a steady stream of content updates; Astroneer and Subnautica.

Not all Live Service games are MP shooters, MMO-lites, or even MP in general.

Sony's Live Service push has caused some of you here to completely shit the bed. I get it. Out of all the Live Service games they've shown and announced so far, only Helldivers 2 looks interesting (primarily because it's not a PvP thing, but a MP PvE game). Sony's Live Service push should have targeted PvE/PvP games like Genshin Impact and GTA Online.

That said, it doesn't mean all Live Service games are shit or of no value. Sea Of Thieves players are another example of gamers who have seen a game go from throw-away trash to addictive AF. The Live Service model is good when done well in games that people actually want to play, i.e. PvE and Co-Op PvE, instead of every dev chasing trends and making MP extraction shooters or MP PvP Battle Royale games.

I think updating game over time is GAAS.

Live service game means daily/weekly quests, cosmetics etc.

I don’t think GAAS will ever go away at this point, as long as internet exists.

 

[MAX PAYMENT]

What will they say when GTA 6 comes out and again becomes a runaway success with GTA6 online live service?

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

I think updating game over time is GAAS.

Live service game means daily/weekly quests, cosmetics etc.

I don’t think GAAS will ever go away at this point, as long as internet exists.

GaaS and Live Service mean the same thing. They're synonyms. There is no distinction between the two.

What will they say when GTA 6 comes out and again becomes a runaway success with GTA6 online live service?

They'll say the same thing. The market is currently oversaturated with Live Service games. That doesn't mean that one of the single most successful Live Service games won't do well.

Similar to how the next game from Genshin Impact dev will kill it, generating billions per mostly from Chinese and Asian markets. The biggest games will launch sequels/successor titles and still do well. But new entrants who haven't made a name for themselves in the space will struggle.

 

[midnightAI]

Wrong, if anything it will increase due to breakthroughs in AI over the next few years (not sure I want it, but it will hapen)

 

[Roberts]

The only Good GAAS is Fortnite, nothing else comes close and never will

Sea of Thieves and Grounded say hi!

 

[Shubh_C63]

They will move to a hybrid model like GTA5

Epic Single player experience, Another meaty expansion and then pivot into GaaS within the same game with microtransactions.

 

[vaibhavpisal]

GaaS and Live Service mean the same thing. They're synonyms. There is no distinction between the two.

There has to be a distinction between something like Fortnite and Grounded.

One is updated over time, other offers new activities daily/weekly.

 

[Quasicat]

I dont see it.
Its all the youngsters play these days. Its all they know about gaming really.

I’ve taught in a middle/high school for the past 20 years and that’s where I think they are targeting. 10 or more years ago my students exclusively used emulators as a free source of gaming, but now they are all on either Fortnite, Roblox, or Minecraft.
I don’t think that the hardcore market is who they are aiming towards, as my gaming friends rarely touch them but my casual friends play Fortnite once or twice a week…usually on their laptops.
Selfishly, I hope Fortnite doesn’t go away anytime soon as I am able to socialize with my friends that live further away from while doing more than just talking on the phone. When I’m not playing with my friends, I’m playing AAA single player games.

 

[Clear]

Industry analysts are usually completely wrong, so I'd take any such prognostications with a truckload of salt.

Especially when they take big swings at trends i.e. "the death of consoles", the "fait accompli of MS' dominance" it nearly always ends with a whiff.

 

[Ar¢tos]

You can’t just “pivot”. AAA game development takes 5-8 years now. If they pivot in 2024, we will see next games as either cross gen or exclusive for next gen consoles.

Not all games need to be AAA. I would be very happy with less AAA and a new growth of AA and episodic games.

 

[Deerock71]

Not all games need to be AAA. I would be very happy with less AAA and a new growth of AA and episodic games.

 

[Doctor Hades]

What will they say when GTA 6 comes out and again becomes a runaway success with GTA6 online live service?

My worry with GTA 6 is that it will be a live service only game that combines the single player and online modes rather than keeping them separate like GTA V and Red Dead Redemption 2.

GTA V was great but, unlike GTA IV, the game never received any DLC expansion packs, and I was never interested in playing GTA Online (in fact, I have never played it despite having bought GTA V multiple times for different consoles and my PC).

 

[Crew511A]

The hatred for Live Service games on NeoGaf is immature and unreasonable.

Many Live Service games show how excellent the Live Service model can be, i.e. Warframe, and No Man's Sky. Players of those games have been consistently and increasingly delighted by the steady stream of new content updates.

Heck, there are a few indie games I've fucking loved that I wish were Live Service in that they provided a steady stream of content updates; Astroneer and Subnautica.

Not all Live Service games are MP shooters, MMO-lites, or even MP in general.

Sony's Live Service push has caused some of you here to completely shit the bed. I get it. Out of all the Live Service games they've shown and announced so far, only Helldivers 2 looks interesting (primarily because it's not a PvP thing, but a MP PvE game). Sony's Live Service push should have targeted PvE/PvP games like Genshin Impact and GTA Online.

That said, it doesn't mean all Live Service games are shit or of no value. Sea Of Thieves players are another example of gamers who have seen a game go from throw-away trash to addictive AF. The Live Service model is good when done well in games that people actually want to play, i.e. PvE and Co-Op PvE, instead of every dev chasing trends and making MP extraction shooters or MP PvP Battle Royale games.

I think you're correct, in theory. Like communism, GAAS sounds good on paper, but it doesn't work in the real world very often. For every game that did it well, you've got dozens of games like Exo-Primal and Halo Infinite that either forgot the "Service" part or were ruined by greed.

 

[twilo99]

The only Good GAAS is Fortnite, nothing else comes close and never will

What’s different about Fortnite? They all follow the same model..

 

[Hohenheim]

I don't think that I have actually played a live service game.. apart from a few minutes in Fortnite with my kid.

I feel that "premium" game development is very much on fire even with all the focus on live service stuff on the side, but if even more developers focus more on delivering great experiences that you buy upfront, and accept that their games are meant to be enjoyed for an x amount of hours, instead of all that never ending stuff with micros and seasons and battle passes and shit, that's awesome news to me!

 

[MAX PAYMENT]

My worry with GTA 6 is that it will be a live service only game that combines the single player and online modes rather than keeping them separate like GTA V and Red Dead Redemption 2.

GTA V was great but, unlike GTA IV, the game never received any DLC expansion packs, and I was never interested in playing GTA Online (in fact, I have never played it despite having bought GTA V multiple times for different consoles and my PC).

I feel you. I tried it a couple times and experienced nothing but loading screens and confusion. Mind boggling to me that it continually makes as much as it does with that mode.

 

[BlackTron]

The end is nigh Men_in_Boxes

He's going to ruthlessly fight this notion, and TBH I think I'd agree with him as long as he doesn't grossly overstate it (who are we kidding, he will).

Live Service is here to stay and when it's successful, it's really freaking successful. At the same time, it's likely that studios won't be able to sustain chasing a golden goose, and make more normal games for a more reliable return on investment as well.

 

[Morrie’s wig shop]

All good thinking and all, but what’s gonna replace the revenue hole that it would create that the industry has been relying on for a decade, what happens when gta 6 releases?

 

[twilo99]

Wrong, if anything it will increase due to breakthroughs in AI over the next few years (not sure I want it, but it will hapen)

AI should also help AAA game development as well..

 

[Guilty_AI]

He's going to ruthlessly fight this notion, and TBH I think I'd agree with him as long as he doesn't grossly overstate it (who are we kidding, he will).

Live Service is here to stay and when it's successful, it's really freaking successful. At the same time, it's likely that studios won't be able to sustain chasing a golden goose, and make more normal games for a more reliable return on investment as well.

Yeah, for starters live service takes different forms, stuff like Monster Hunter could be called live service depending on how you define it. The problem really is the golden goose chase that wrecks companies legs, or this notion every game in the future will be some form of MP competitive or MMO that our fish-friend always brings to the table.