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Media Create Sales: Aug 24-30, 2009
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
phisheep said:
okay, but there's not going to be a surprise holiday announcement and we already know their two major games that would make it out before fall 2010, so it's true that nintendo will probably pull out the surprise zelda card for fall/holiday 2010 or whatever, but "wait until zelda wii 2" is just as dumb in 2009 as it was in 2008 when all they had was animal crossing and wii music.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
They're both still regularly in the Top 30, so we've got a good view. Wii Fit still has a lead of about 100K, but thanks to the PSP MHP2G bundles and/or MH3, it's being outsold by more like 10-11K each week rather than the 2-3K it was doing just before. So MHP2G stealing the lead may come sooner than I previously expected, though it still probably won't happen before Wii Fit+ hits.Fafalada said:
charlequin
Banned
Opiate said:
It was time for that leading up to holiday 2008, IMO, since that's when the terrible trend they've been on since became clear. Now it's time for reasonable people to say that Nintendo has seriously fucked themselves.
NintendosBooger
Member
LOL @ Nintendo being in trouble.
PS3 software sells like crap compared to the other two consoles, and yet Nintendo is in trouble. Nintendo is the market leader, software leader, console leader, handheld leader, and they're in trouble. PS3 can barely compete against the 360, let alone the Wii, and Nintendo is in trouble. Nintendo is making more money in this gen than Sony video games was able to muster in 3, including this one. YUP, BIG TROUBLE!
You Nintendo haters are gleefully pointing at the semi-flat tire on the Big N's wheels after they've lapped past their competition 5x over.
PS3 software sells like crap compared to the other two consoles, and yet Nintendo is in trouble. Nintendo is the market leader, software leader, console leader, handheld leader, and they're in trouble. PS3 can barely compete against the 360, let alone the Wii, and Nintendo is in trouble. Nintendo is making more money in this gen than Sony video games was able to muster in 3, including this one. YUP, BIG TROUBLE!
You Nintendo haters are gleefully pointing at the semi-flat tire on the Big N's wheels after they've lapped past their competition 5x over.
charlequin said:
From their actions I think it appears that they rightly don't care, in the grand scheme of things Sony has to wait till December to move any serious hardware and the gap in install base is so wide its ridiculous
I do not see a price drop or new games coming, I see M+ bundled in and that is about it while they ride the storm with NSMB Wii and expect it to take off like the DS one
I guess they figured they survived the epic fail of AC/Wii Music
They cannot slim the system, they already recolored it (I have a hard time believing a pink Wii would move hardware), cannot see a price drop doing much besides spurring a temp raise in sales like MH3 did
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
HK-47 said:
i can't even remember what console maker i'm supposed to be a fan of. i need tattoos like the guy from memento so i don't forget.
NintendosBooger said:
The generation doesn't stop just because Nintendo has a insurmountable lead. Now, if we had a seen a complete shift in 3rd party development to the Wii because of that early success, then any slowdown probably wouldn't matter all that much. But frankly, we haven't seen that shift and so the Wii slowing down is a concern, and I guarantee you it is a concern for Iwata and Nintendo.
Now, I don't think I would go so far as to say they are seriously fucked, but on the other hand the author of that statement has been sounding warning bells far earlier than anyone else so maybe he's correct.
Wii has significantly slowed down across the world and there has been little indication from Nintendo that they plan on aggressively combating that scenario outside of hoping that their big software catches lightning in a bottle yet again. I don't think that is wise.
charlequin
Banned
HK-47 said:
Oooh, oooh, do me.
boiled goose
good with gravy
schuelma said:
maybe there is only so much nintendo can do, and they know it.
aggresively cutting the price, or doing bundles will temporarily boost hardware and seem rather desperate. the problem is the overall drop in interest for the console. it is something they probably cant reverse on their own and they know it. they can hope that nsmbwii does somehting, but it might not be a new killer app given that it is yet another nintendo title on the nintendo system.
i think the reall problem they should be dealing with is third party support. if wii sales continue to slide, publishers might just ignore the wiis success going into next gen. and nintendo will be back where they started this gen. on their own.
nintendo knows there is only so much they can do, as we all know trends are incredibly difficult to reverse mid gen and the console's perceptions are set.
amtentori said:
I don't understand why making ONE price cut after almost 3 years could be considered desperate. Every system besides the DS has done one, why would Wii be any different? I agree that price drops alone don't fix anything, but as it stands 250$ or its equivalent number in different territories looks less and less enticing every time the HD twins make a price cut.
charlequin
Banned
amtentori said:
How is doing something that every market leader system ever has done, after holding off longer than any other system ever, going to come off as "desperate" exactly?
schuelma said:
Wait till they make one and then read any online or print article about them :lol
We can sit here and say they are in trouble all they want but if they do not do anything or keep the ship sailing the way it is then it should tell us things are just fine.
I am sure they are concerned, not sure what they will do if NSMB Wii does not take off or they experience a similar Christmas.
The rumors are running rampant they will show a trailer for Zelda but that surely won't do anything for the near term.
In all honesty though we have seen development only go to the DS and the PSP, its not like there is some magic wave of development for the PS3 either. The biggest game for that system is something we have been waiting 3+ years for
Its like console development is in holding pattern
charlequin
Banned
markatisu said:
No that does not tell us that things are "just fine." Nintendo do not magically make only correct decisions; we can independently judge whether a price drop/software push is needed this holiday and then decide that Nintendo made a mistake if they make the opposite decision.
poppabk
Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
Considering that barring a massive price drop and hardware redesign from one of their competitors, they are the top selling console in all markets, have the best selling handheld by far in all markets and consistently sell massive amounts of software (their bombs are multi-million sellers), saying that Nintendo have seriously fucked themselves seems a little extreme. Made some of their first mistakes in a generation that they have made every single right move, for sure, but fucked themselves?charlequin said:
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
charlequin said:
well the easiest way to deal with this would be to ask markiatsu to make a ban bet against no one that nintendo hits their shipping predictions for the year
poppabk
Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
Not meeting predictions does not equal being in trouble.Stumpokapow said:well the easiest way to deal with this would be to ask markiatsu to make a ban bet against no one that nintendo hits their shipping predictions for the year
Meeting predictions does not equal doing fine.
Luckyman said:
We are not exactly sure about GT5 yet but both would sell a great quantity of consoles for sure. The things to know are : 1) if the fanbase for those two titles have already jumped on board, 2) if the demographics for those two games may far exceed the current Playstation 3 userbase.
It kinda depends on the mindshare they may/would still have. My guess is that it is fairly conceivable to see Playstation 3 sales rise around 50'000 units a week during the launch of both games. Which would be a huge boost compared to numbers we've been used to.
But I doubt they would pull Pokémon-like numbers :
http://garaph.info/weeklyoverview.php?week=2002-11-18
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
poppabk said:
err, yes, missing your annual projections absolutely equals being in trouble, particularly when you're a company well known for making borderline fraudulently conservative projections and upward revising over and over again.
charlequin
Banned
poppabk said:
Read that, in context, as "in their specific aims for the Wii business." Nintendo as a company can fuck up ludicrously badly (see: 2001-2005) and still post profits, and the DS business has been more or less immaculately handled from the beginning, but in their operating goals as a publically traded corporation (i.e. producing growth over time and hitting their sales targets for each quarter and year) their Wii business has begun to seriously underperform, and when they miss their shipment numbers for this year it's going to pummel their stock.
poppabk said:
Yes, not meeting predictions does indeed mean "being in trouble." As a publically-traded corporation, Nintendo's stock value and their ability to appear desirable to investors is heavily tied up in their ability to set desirable sales goals for each year and then meet those goals.
charlequin said:
Which brings up the question of why they have not yet?
I would think if they believed they would not meet it they would have revised, isn't that what they have done in the past?
After last year with AC and Wii Music you think they would be extra cautious
well the easiest way to deal with this would be to ask markiatsu to make a ban bet against no one that nintendo hits their shipping predictions for the year
if you want me to leave you could just say so
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
poppabk said:
... which is exactly why stocks of profitable companies freefall when they miss earnings expectations, and stocks of money-losing companies rally when they beat earnings expectations.
Here's an analyst arguing against providing earnings guidance on the basis that it hamstrings management decisions and makes companies think short term precisely because missing earnings guidance will fuck you.
Enjoy this helpful Google search for "stock falls on missed expectations"
Companies don't just need to profit, they also need to show GROWTH, and they also need to perform according to expectations. The principle applies not only to earnings guidance, but also product shipment projections because in lieu of proper earnings guidance investment decisions and analyst projections are made based on secondary data. Specifically in a company like Nintendo with few core competencies, analyst projections are going to be very tightly bound to product shipments.
This is not helping your argument. Do you believe my position, ban bet aside, is that Nintendo will lose money this year?
charlequin
Banned
markatisu said:
Because they overestimated the impact of the black system/WSR/MH3 and were relying on an increased weekly sales figure right about now, would be my guess.
poppabk said:
You don't seem to be understanding what stump and I are saying at all. As a starting point, "in trouble" != "under fundamental existential threat."
poppabk
Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
But isn't this article stating the exact opposite of what you are saying? That it would be wrong of Nintendo to change their policy (ie make a price cut) just to meet expectations, that they are better ignoring their own forecasts and instead focusing on the long term future of the company.Stumpokapow said:
As for missing guidance resulting in a drop in stock, don't stocks rise based on this same guidance. I am sure that the initial over correction when guidance is missed is greater than the increase brought about by the original guidance, but surely everything evens out over the long term? ie you don't have a company fundamentally undervalued in 2009 because they missed a projection in 2002.
So my question is, in the long term how have Nintendo seriously fucked themselves and what should they have done to avoid this? The answer would seem to be that they should never have given projected figures, or given lower projections, but that seems kind of trite.
poppabk said:
Actually, no:
"Missing your own earnings guidance, however, is a big deal: You set investors up for disappointment. You failed to deliver."
I guess it all depends on how much you miss your expectations, no? If Nintendo is a million or two out, I don't think investors will want Iwata's head. Of course, I may be wrong.
In Japan, the best move they could have made was probably to work with third-parties to get a lot of consistent releases aimed at the 18-35 male market - RPGs and the like. That they didn't will always be a failure, but the success of the PS3's relaunch in encouraging new consumers to buy one will determine whether it will become a completely damning maneuver or a more-than-minor bump in the road. I don't think it's fair to exactly hold them accountable for WSR's missed 2008 launch, but rather its failure now in 2009.
I will say that for Winter/Holiday 2009, whether through luck or planning, Wii has a lot better 3rd party lineup than its had the first 3 seasons.
Edit- the big failure to me is the lack of RPG's. Almost 3 years into the Wii's life and there is one high profile RPG- Tales of Graces. I think Nintendo could have and should have been much more aggressive, both internally and with 3rd parties.
Edit- the big failure to me is the lack of RPG's. Almost 3 years into the Wii's life and there is one high profile RPG- Tales of Graces. I think Nintendo could have and should have been much more aggressive, both internally and with 3rd parties.
charlequin said:
Or they are waiting for the impact of wiifit plus, nsmb wii, and the holiday bumb.
The Wii might not take off like the ds with those games, but if/when the ps3 falls back to 10k a week and the wii sales stay where they are then it is not in trouble.
Software sales have been fine without the third party shift. I doubt third parties would sift to the Wii if hw sales were like the ds anyway.
This reminds of when people kept saying the ds was in trouble because psp sales were up due to a slim release.
I think the biggest issue for them is that it's quite likely that many of their investors don't really follow the videogame industry, especially in any kind of long term sense.gerg said:
If they see that Nintendo was selling amazing amounts of Wii and suddenly they're missing their expectations by a large number of consoles, they might assume the Wii was just a fad and start bailing out of the stock in favor of trying to find the next hot item.
Sure, Nintendo has always been a profitable company that's stayed pertinent for over 20 years, but sadly many of their investors probably don't realize this.
schuelma said:
I concur.
Nevertheless, I think the PS3 Slim's sales may be encouraging more "knee-jerk" reactions than may otherwise occur.
onipex said:
I think expecting Wii Fit Plus to do much for driving momentum is a mistake, and I think (and I hope) that Nintendo isn't doing so.
That was different. With the DS you had a console that had established dominance in the market, already superseding the previous best-selling console's LTD sales.
With the Wii you have a console much more vulnerable to the movements of its competitors.
poppabk said:
I'm not saying that Nintendo is fucked or anything but they certainly missed the opportunity to sell a lot more Wii's. Their software lineup is not as strong on the Wii as it is on the DS. They have released way too many game experiences that can either be found on the Gamecube or DS while the Wii's strengh is its motion controls and the possible applications of it. Wiisports/Wiisports Resort/Wiifit/Wiimusic all great but the rest is pretty weak in terms of innovations and what people expect of the Wii. It probably has in some part to do with the longer dev cycle of console games. Consumers don't have to wait for Nintendo to show their brilliance every once in a while, though.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
gerg said:
I should note that I don't expect particularly bullish things to happen to the PS3 and Sony's pre-Slim efforts have been frankly pathetic. Microsoft has done well relative to their position at the start of the generation, but they really haven't done anything to keep up the momentum they gained with BD->LO and later IU->TOV->SO4. Nintendo absolutely dominates both of these in the present and I don't think it's useful to forecast Nintendo slipping from first place in lifetime sales any time soon. So don't take my posts as any reaction to anything occurring right now.
But I think Nintendo has basically bungled the Wii's value proposition in Japan for some time. Starting with the bad Fall 2007 everyone had (see Wii hardware weeks 39-41 onwards). They didn't have anything to help with that.
Then they failed to advertise or effectively position SMG, having it bomb out of the gate. Thankfully, they did a post-launch aggressive and excellent advertising campaign, and saved face a good deal... They did well Christmas 2007 minus that.
Then came Brawl, which worked out well, but they didn't follow up Brawl with anything for the same target audience. They failed to counterprogram MK Wii / Wii Fit. That's not a big deal as it relates to install base, but definitely impacts the Wii's perception as a machine for a particular type of games.
The back half of 2008 was a drought and they self-admittedly bumbled Christmas 2008. 2009's only good moves were Wii Sports Resort and their Christmas, with nothing in between either.
Basically, my stance is that the 40-50k a week the Wii was doing consistently up until late summer 2007 and then later in the first half of 2008 could have been sustainable until now.
poppabk
Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
I am not trying to argue that Nintendo haven't made mistakes, in fact I argued a long time ago that a pre-emptive price cut might be a good thing to maintain momentum even though sales were still high at that point. They definitely have rested on their laurels a little too much when it comes to software, Animal Crossing lacked any extras to make it a stand out title, Wii Music missed the boat entirely, and they have let good games such as excite bots die without and help. But there are a few steps between success and failure and the Wii is sitting on one of them.ksamedi said:
gerg said:
This happens whenever the PS3 outsells the Wii.
gerg said:
It sounds like they are. They expected WSR to drive up sales too. They think if the games have long tails then they can drive hw sales.
I think that sequels would take longer to drive up hw sales if their theory is right.
gerg said:
Which made the claims for the DS even sillier. The Wii has a huge lead and at least one title coming out that can cause a rise in hw sales still to come out this year.
The PS3 needed a redesign and a price cut to cause sales to go up. Sales went up for it before due to software releases and Nintendo is hoping software releases due the same for them.
We have to wait and see if the slim PS3 will cause the same effect on sw sales as the slim psp. I believe that mh kept psp sales up after the slim release, so the next few weeks will show us how ps3 sales will go.
What I think nintendo should do is get square to release some older dq games on the wii the same way they did for the ds. At least one and another spin off.
I'd also add that Nintendo has been very disappointing with their support for the peripherals. Wii Fit is an absolute smash and we see nothing in Japan until two years later with a Wii Fit sequel.
WSR is supported by..what other Motion+ games exactly? Span Smasher?
WSR is supported by..what other Motion+ games exactly? Span Smasher?
Sin & Punishment 2 will give the Wii the jolt it needs!
I wish
Seriously though, I wouldn't worry about Nintendo unless New Super Mario Bros. Wii tanks. The DS had its ups and downs too and they always recovered from that even when the PSP had the Dragon Quest bump. The line-up for next year already looks solid with Metroid: Other M and Super Mario Galaxy 2 among other games. A pricedrop may happen too but I guess that it will be the trump card.
I wish
Seriously though, I wouldn't worry about Nintendo unless New Super Mario Bros. Wii tanks. The DS had its ups and downs too and they always recovered from that even when the PSP had the Dragon Quest bump. The line-up for next year already looks solid with Metroid: Other M and Super Mario Galaxy 2 among other games. A pricedrop may happen too but I guess that it will be the trump card.
A Dragon Quest Swords game with Motion Plus support might do good. The Crystal Bearers looks great too and they got Tales of Graces and the new Mosou game as well, I'm not worried about Nintendo or the Wii just yet.
Assuming Wikipedia is correct here, even if we add in Japanese third parties, we still have essentially no Japanese developers making games with the peripheral.schuelma said:
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wii_Motion_PlusWikipedia said:
Nirolak said:Assuming Wikipedia is correct here, even if we add in Japanese third parties, we still have essentially no Japanese developers making games with the peripheral.
Yeah absolutely nothing has been announced.
Don't think its much better for the Balance Board- the only game that comes to mind is We Ski.
xs_mini_neo
Banned
charlequin said:
Under threat of not being the next PS2? Well, obviously. The DS already has that title. And the DS did it without all the bestest third party software that elevated the PS2 to crazy heights. Obviously the Wii is not going to sell THAT much. It's basically what the PS2 would have been without the vast majority of third party support auto-crowning it king of sales. Why wouldn't the PS2 sell a ton. Why wouldn't the Wii not compare.
The Wii is not in any sort of trouble it wasn't already in at the start of this gen. If your system is selling great in spite of all the third party shenanigans to derail it, then what else can you expect? They surprised everyone who wasn't anti-Wii or Nintendo with SMG2, NSMBWii and Metroid Other M. Nobody saw those coming.
maybe because the people that do were too busy riding other consoles at the time to check, lol
And I love the doomsday talk about NSMBWii failing. Especially when it comes from people who thought a dozen big games would save the PS3. Another thing I love is how people act like we aren't in a SNES/GEN type situation right now with the console split. (I say this because of how people are already acting like the 360 and PS3 are the same console.) No console is going to sell like the PS2 in this situation.
xs_mini_neo said:
Look at it this way, do you think Iwata is happy with these sales? Do you believe the people at Nintendo are thinking hmmm, sales are still at about PS2 level without major third party support we must be doing good? I certainly don't believe that to be the case. Especially after the huge succes of the DS. Nintendo's goal is to outsell the PS2, and not by a small margin. This is not where the Wii is supposed to be. I would say its in a really bad position right now.
I do believe that Nintendo is going to be highly competitive though. They are far from doomed or out of the race.
Stumpokapow said:
I think that's a fair point. However, I would say that the loss of sales isn't the root of their problems, but a symptom of a vulnerability that could have been avoided.
schuelma said:
This really isn't anything new.
I don't think that M+ could ever be a big driver of hardware sales.
onipex said:
WSR's legs aren't the problem. It's the fact that new consumers aren't buying Wiis because of it. Didn't Iwata say that he expects "long tail" software to take six to eight weeks to drive hardware sales? Hasn't that period passed? And if not, shouldn't hardware sales remain relatively constant in that period? (Outside of festival and/or holiday-related bumps, that is.)
In absolute terms, the Wii has an untouchable lead. My concern would be in regards to a core demographic which I think Nintendo has the chance to capture, and may possibly give away to Sony.
poppabk
Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
But this is a recent goal, brought about by unexpected and unforeseeable success. Given where they were at last year they are in a bad position and it is there own fault, but a lot of their "wrong" decisions got them to that position in the first place.ksamedi said: