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[schuelma]

Please note I didn't mean to insult you either there.

I think you're quite objective honestly. Much more than a very large portion of GAF.

Yeah I'm a bit crabby right now, so don't sweat it.

 

[Sagitario]

I suppose.

 

[selig]

There are at least 5 million Wii owners for whom XIII is a complete non-factor. Graces' poor performance has nothing to do with that.

Is it bs-time? :/

If for 5 million Wii owners FF13 is a non-factor, WHAT makes you think ToG might be one?
ToG bombed because of the silliest release date of all times. A week before the most hyped current gen JRPG, and a week after the biggest game on the same system.

A Pokemon-remake should have no effect on ToV at all btw, Spiegel.

 

[charlequin]

Wait I thought everybody agreed that the Wii got crappy support from the start.

Errr, I didn't really phrase that correctly at all. :lol

When Wii owners point to games that were underwhelming (from a user perspective) but sold at a decent clip given what they were (of which the Wii did indeed have a number, even early on) in order to "excuse" later poor software performance, it's silly. Nobody was looking at stuff like DQ:S or RE:UC, seeing them perform decently for spinoffs, and then pulling support away because these titles didn't perform like real AAA titles. Nor did the userbase for "core" games stay away from the Wii because they thought there were "too many" of these spinoff games or whatever -- it was what didn't come to the system (i.e. anything else) that was the problem.

With the PSP, the idea that people stopped buying software for the system because there were too many PS2-like games and ports early on is silly. It's clear from looking at the first-year sales that people (in Japan) who bought the system wanted games like this, because they bought them. Similarly, the idea that the dip in software sales drove away publishers is silly, because the most successful PSP publishers (Capcom, Scamco, S-E, Konami) continued to chip away at the system, continued to do so by putting PS2 titles and PS2-like titles on it, and remained pretty consistently successful with their offerings throughout the system's life. There wasn't a surge in PSP interest driven by the death of the PS2 platform.

If anything, the PSP is a good counterpoint to the Wii -- an also-ran system (which the Wii really is, given the handheld dominance in Japan now) is going to really screw you in a way the PS2 didn't if you produce low-end or half-assed titles, but dedicated and full-fledged support can still produce very solid results. The difference is that a few publishers did bring that sort of support to PSP and stuck at it while none of them did the same with Wii.

I guess I need to enroll in another session of charlequin's "How to be an Unbiased Sales Ager" class.

Didn't you hear? I got fired from teaching that class after sfried outed me as a member of the SDF.

To illustrate the point, I'll suggest that things which could certainly do well on the Wii: Kingdom Hearts, Final Fantasy Tactics (Fire Emblem sells!), more Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest, maybe Phantasy Star. Things which should never even be considered for the Wii: Ryu ga Gotoku, Metal Gear Solid, Ace Combat.

Things that would've done better on Wii: Katamari. I'd propose low-rent moe RPGs like Disgaea and Ar Tornelico but people who are into these in America seem unusually platform-biased so maybe that'd be a nonstarter.

Things that'd do better off Wii: I want so bad to troll everyone and say "Monster Hunter" here. :lol

 

[gerg]

Things that'd do better off Wii: I want so bad to troll everyone and say "Monster Hunter" here. :lol

Hey, I agree with you. :lol

I imagine that hacking giant monsters to bits is a game design that benefits especially from graphical prowess.

Edit: Plus, the online infrastructure isn't as developed as much as the PS3, so online multiplayer probably isn't as much fun.

 

[Grampasso]

:lol

 

[Koren]

Things which should never even be considered for the Wii: Ryu ga Gotoku, Metal Gear Solid, Ace Combat.

Why especially Ace Combat ? Because Sky Crawlers sold poorly ? Or because you think Ace Combat fans favors graphics ?

 

[Jeels]

I think a better question is why someone who is not a hard core Tales fan would want to buy Graces. There are many Tales games out there, new ones even, that could be considered better. Tales of Vesperia PS3 did really good in Japan, has the market chosen which Tales game is superior?

 

[Eteric Rice]

My point was that there are (at least) 5 million Wii owners who do not own a PS3. Sure, you can take Eteric Rice's tack that "well, all the Tales fans who own a Wii also probably own a PS3". But that's the equivalent of saying that Graces has no appeal to any of the 5 million folks who only own a Wii. That seems to me to be a more cogent reason for underperformance than the release of another game in the genre, no matter how massive.

Besides, if we try to guess the mentality of consumers that game can be played the other direction too. To wit: Most Tales fans are otaku type, which means they're savvy about the discounting protocols of retailers. FF XIII was extremely expensive at launch. PS3-only otaku had no other RPG choices, so they were boned. But the guys with PS3 and Wii could buy Graces, beat it in three weeks, and then get FF XIII for cheap. Voila!

Because there's definitely some overlap in the fanbases, my saying that XIII had "nothing" to do with Graces' performance is perhaps too strong. But to say that it was the primary reason for it--which Eteric Rice implied--is too extreme a converse.

I'm not saying it would have sold 300k instantly by the way. But I do think it would have had 30k or 40k more sales than it did.

Besides, if we try to guess the mentality of consumers that game can be played the other direction too. To wit: Most Tales fans are otaku type, which means they're savvy about the discounting protocols of retailers. FF XIII was extremely expensive at launch. PS3-only otaku had no other RPG choices, so they were boned. But the guys with PS3 and Wii could buy Graces, beat it in three weeks, and then get FF XIII for cheap. Voila!

From what I understand, the otaku are the ones who really aren't tight asses with money. That's supposedly the reason the anime market is trying to target them with loli and shit (because they buy the dvds and merchandise )

So I doubt they'd wait, especially after all the XIII hype. If anything they'd wait and buy Graces later.

 

[Liabe Brave]

Is it bs-time? :/

If for 5 million Wii owners FF13 is a non-factor, WHAT makes you think ToG might be one?

I didn't mean that 5 million Wii owners have no interest in XIII, I meant that no matter what their level of interest, it's a non-factor because they don't own PS3s. In fact, my very point was that I personally see no reason a good portion of those folks wouldn't be interested. To say that FF XIII's release was a huge or even the exclusive factor in Graces' performance--which is what you and Eteric Rice seem to be saying--is to claim that unless you're the sort of person who owns a PS3, you will have no interest in Tales.

As a thoroughgoing scenario that seems unlikely to me, but granting that it's true, isn't it still a better way to explain Graces' performance? "The Tales fanbase is all on PS3" seems much more germane than "It was released on the wrong date (because all the fans were playing a PS3 game the next week)."

 

[danielijohnson]

So when will MC stop tracking PSPGo's sales?:lol :lol

 

[Chris1964]

Can't we just accept that Graces underperformed (for every reason each one believes) and move on?
There are so many other games every week that either exceed expectations or the opposite and we are still stucked there.
I want to believe that after and Dynasty Warriors 6: Empires underperformance this week (after Dynasty Warriors 6: Special) Koei will finally realize that they can't release the same game every 3 months and expect it to sell.

 

[Spiegel]

With the PSP, the idea that people stopped buying software for the system because there were too many PS2-like games and ports early on is silly.

I never said that. People stopped buying software because drought periods caused by a terrible first party planning/support and because psp was the second choice for original ps2-style games and cheaper lower budget games.
And I'm not blaming third parties for that. Sony should have realized that launching a ps2 portable against the real PS2 and a "typical" handheld (with lower development time/budget for games) in 2004 maybe wasn't the best idea when your platforms are based primarily on having massive third party support.

Also I've never said that psp launched with terrible third party support. Third party support was fine, what came after the launch period caused by the reasons stated above is what ended "killing" the psp

There wasn't a surge in PSP interest driven by the death of the PS2 platform.

Not caused by the death of the PS2 but it's obvious that if PS2 were still alive PSP wouldn't be getting this quantity of support now. PSP is the "good enough" platform for many third parties because ps2 is dead.

 

[selig]

As a thoroughgoing scenario that seems unlikely to me, but granting that it's true, isn't it still a better way to explain Graces' performance? "The Tales fanbase is all on PS3" seems much more germane than "It was released on the wrong date (because all the fans were playing a PS3 game the next week)."

If it was a big PS3-game of a different genre I´d agree with you. But both FF13 and ToG are story-focused JRPGs. The problem: One enjoys far more popularity than the other one.
It´d be okay to discuss other reasons for the relatively low numbers, but it´s just annoying to see some people use ToG as an excuse to once again take a stab against the "mysterious" Wii-audience, thats so "hard to figure out". When it comes to a hardcore-audience, there´s at least 1 million of them in Japan. And...damn, FF13!

Btw. the game Im currently rooting for the most is PokePark Pikachu. I recently watched someone who imported it on a livestream, and the game looks gorgeous. The world is so rich and while it´s driven by a lot of minigames, the way it´s presented makes it charming nonetheless. Really gives you hope that one day we´ll see a a gorgeous 3D-Pokemon game.

 

[MemoirsofMimi]

So when will MC stop tracking PSPGo's sales?:lol :lol

I was thinking the same thing. :lol

Just out of curiosity, has either other handheld or console done this badly before?

 

[Liabe Brave]

If it was a big PS3-game of a different genre I´d agree with you. But both FF13 and ToG are story-focused JRPGs. The problem: One enjoys far more popularity than the other one. It´d be okay to discuss other reasons for the relatively low numbers, but it´s just annoying to see some people use ToG as an excuse to once again take a stab against the "mysterious" Wii-audience, thats so "hard to figure out".

It's you making proclamations about the Wii audience. That is, that no (or almost no) Wii owner who doesn't also own a PS3 is interested in a story-focused JRPG. That claim seems a bit too coincidental to me.

 

[mutsu]

It's you making proclamations about the Wii audience. That is, that no (or almost no) Wii owner who doesn't also own a PS3 is interested in a story-focused JRPG. That claim seems a bit too coincidental to me.

I do believe that that's the case. I don't live in Japan so I don't really know what the advertising campaign was like for Tales of Graces. Wii owners who don't own a PS3 are more than likely so-called casual gamers, and for them to buy anything there needs to be either strong word of mouth or a strong advertising campaign. I can't see ToG's campaign being anywhere near the level of FF13.

On the other hand, there must be those Wii owners who are so-called "hardcore gamers" who still don't own a PS3 yet. However, they knew FF13 was coming, and they needed to get a PS3 to play it, so they would have saved up for it from a while back to get it. Afterall it is Final Fantasy and the first one on a next-gen platform so it was not to be missed.

Both scenario equals diminished sales of ToG.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I mean the "last october" last year - okay?

Heh. I looked for the latest Wii release in Garaph and went from there. Since the December 2009 release didn't make it into Famitsu's weekly 30 or yearly 100 lists, it isn't in the database. But yeah, seems it released alongside the PS2/PSP versions.

http://img2.pict.com/e8/9b/cb/2601577/0/28thumb.jpg

Gaahhh playing through my head again and again now.

 

[king zell]

Valkyria Chronicles 2 this week biggest release

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/?p=7560

The Battle of Aces hits the PSP

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/?p=7558

MJ PS3 bundle flayers

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/?p=7556

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Lets get the prediction party started.

Prediction League (Week 01/25-01/31)
- Rounded numbers to the nearest thousand
- Going by Media Create rounded Top10
- If any title missed Top10, we would use Dengeki Top20 for it
- Every title will have 4 days on sale in their first week
- Predictions open until we get early Famitsu Top10 (around 12PM-3PM GMT, Wednesday 27th)

[NDS] Dragon Quest VI (Square Enix) -
[PS3] End of Eternity (Sega) -
[360] End of Eternity (Sega) -
[PS3] Ar tonelico III (Namco Bandai) -

 

[duckroll]

Lets get the prediction party started.

Let's see how accurate I am if I stick by this: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=18771240&postcount=436

[NDS] Dragon Quest VI (Square Enix) - 1 million
[PS3] End of Eternity (Sega) - 190k
[360] End of Eternity (Sega) - 80k
[PS3] Ar tonelico III (Namco Bandai) - 45k

 

[MemoirsofMimi]

[NDS] Dragon Quest VI (Square Enix) - 950k
[PS3] End of Eternity (Sega) - 150k
[360] End of Eternity (Sega) - 65k
[PS3] Ar tonelico III (Namco Bandai) - 65k

 

[BlazingDarkness]

youch those are low expectations for Ar tonelico 3
im not surprised though

 

[Durante]

[NDS] Dragon Quest VI (Square Enix) - 900k
[PS3] End of Eternity (Sega) - 160k
[360] End of Eternity (Sega) - 60k
[PS3] Ar tonelico III (Namco Bandai) - 65k

35k first week for AT3 would be a disaster in my opinion. It may happen because of the crazy release schedule, but I really don't think so. Rorona sold 48k first week on PS3 half a year ago, and the Ar Tonelico series has been more popular than Atelier for a while now.
(I don't have much of an idea or did much thinking about any of the other games)

 

[duckroll]

35k first week for AT3 would be a disaster in my opinion. It may happen because of the crazy release schedule, but I really don't think so. Rorona sold 48k first week on PS3 half a year ago, and the Ar Tonelico series has been more popular than Atelier for a while now.

I see no evidence on the claim that Ar Tonelico is more popular than Atelier, considering how Atelier is a series which has had constant releases every single year, while AT had 2 games, and is getting a third one now about 3 years later.

 

[Aru]

[NDS] Dragon Quest VI (Square Enix) - 850k
[PS3] End of Eternity (Sega) - 170k
[360] End of Eternity (Sega) - 60k
[PS3] Ar tonelico III (Namco Bandai) - 60k

 

[ksamedi]

[NDS] Dragon Quest VI (Square Enix) - 950k
[PS3] End of Eternity (Sega) - 100k
[360] End of Eternity (Sega) - 30k
[PS3] Ar tonelico III (Namco Bandai) - 50k

 

[Jokeropia]

Don't forget these are lifetime-to-date sellthroughs so the situation isn't so bad, especially for the older ''immortal'' games.

Yeah, but at the current sales rates they'd still need new shipments soon. (Even accounting for further post-holiday drop-off.)

 

[Aru]

[NDS] Dragon Quest VI (Square Enix) - 950k
[PS3] End of Eternity (Sega) - 100k
[360] End of Eternity (Sega) - 30k
[PS3] Ar tonelico III (Namco Bandai) - 50k

So low for EoE PS3 ?

 

[Chris1964]

Yeah, but at the current sales rates they'd still need new shipments soon. (Even accounting for further post-holiday drop-off.)

I'm sure Nintendo restocks evenly, but with small shipments that's why the high sellthrough. I don't think there are stock problems for most of these games except for holiday seasons.

Does anyone know which these games are (leaked Famitsu numbers)?

Kirasuta (DS?) - 1.559 / NEW
ウィンちゃん　(Wynne Chan) - 1.830 / NEW

with release date August 10, 2006

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Does anyone know which these games are (leaked Famitsu numbers)?

Kirasuta (DS?) - 1.559 / NEW
ウィンちゃん　(Wynne Chan) - 1.830 / NEW

with release date August 10, 2006

NDS Quiz Kirameki Star Road (Taito Corporation)
PSP Yamasa Digi Portable: Matsuri no Tatsujin - Win-Chan no Natsumatsuri (Yamasa)

 

[Chris1964]

Thanks.

 

[Brazil]

[NDS] Dragon Quest VI (Square Enix) - 950k
[PS3] End of Eternity (Sega) - 140k
[360] End of Eternity (Sega) - 30k
[PS3] Ar tonelico III (Namco Bandai) - 70k

 

[donny2112]

[NDS] Dragon Quest VI (Square Enix) - 800K
[PS3] Ar tonelico III (Namco Bandai) - 60K

 

[faridmon]

[NDS] Dragon Quest VI (Square Enix) - 850k
[PS3] End of Eternity (Sega) - 210k
[360] End of Eternity (Sega) - 60k
[PS3] Ar tonelico III (Namco Bandai) - 40k

 

[mugurumakensei]

[NDS] Dragon Quest VI (Square Enix) - 825k
[PS3] End of Eternity (Sega) - 185k
[360] End of Eternity (Sega) - 45k
[PS3] Ar tonelico III (Namco Bandai) - 36k

 

[Tailzo]

[NDS] Dragon Quest VI (Square Enix) - 750k
[PS3] End of Eternity (Sega) - 150k
[360] End of Eternity (Sega) - 50k
[PS3] Ar tonelico III (Namco Bandai) - 40k

 

[Rainier]

[NDS] Dragon Quest VI (Square Enix) - 975k
[PS3] End of Eternity (Sega) - 165k
[360] End of Eternity (Sega) - 35k
[PS3] Ar tonelico III (Namco Bandai) - 55k

 

[Baki]

If DQ6 opens at 1M would that be the best opening for a DQ remake?

Edit; my predictions

[PS3]End of Eternity - 193k
[360] End of Eternity - 75k
[PS3] Ar Tonellico 3 - 65k
[NDS] Dragon Quest VI - 976k

 

[Kishgal]

If DQ6 opens at 1M would that be the best opening for a DQ remake?

I don't have data that goes back very far, but DQ5 PS2 at least had first week sales of 1,048,925.

 

[Kishgal]

Looking back at the numbers, it seems like besides DQ5 PS2, DQ remakes have consistently launched in the 600k area. Something tells me that DQ5 PS2 only launched as high as it did because of the included DQ8 promotional disc. I guess it'll be pretty interesting to see what the actual number is.

 

[RPGManiac]

[NDS] Dragon Quest VI (Square Enix) -950K
[PS3] End of Eternity (Sega) -125K
[360] End of Eternity (Sega) -75K
[PS3] Ar tonelico III (Namco Bandai) -55K

 

[gundamkyoukai]

[PS3] End Of Eternity (Sega) 150k
[360] End Of Eternity (Sega) 45k
[PS3] Ar tonelico III (Namco Bandai) 65k
[NDS] Dragon Quest VI (Square Enix) 825k

 

[Orgen]

[NDS] Dragon Quest VI (Square Enix) - 880K
[PS3] End of Eternity (Sega) - 170K
[360] End of Eternity (Sega) - 70K
[PS3] Ar tonelico III (Namco Bandai) - 50K

 

[farscape82]

[NDS] Dragon Quest VI (Square Enix) - 1250K
[PS3] End of Eternity (Sega) - 135K
[360] End of Eternity (Sega) - 45K
[PS3] Ar tonelico III (Namco Bandai) - 30k

 

[Durante]

I see no evidence on the claim that Ar Tonelico is more popular than Atelier, considering how Atelier is a series which has had constant releases every single year, while AT had 2 games, and is getting a third one now about 3 years later.

Data from garaph, FW/LTD:

Last few Atelier games:
Atelier Iris 2 - 2005/05 PS2: 33k / 58k
Atelier Iris 3 - 2006/06 PS2: 25k / 45k
Atelier Lise - 2007/04 DS: 22k / 41k
Atelier Annie - 2009/03 DS: 15k / 15k
Atelier Rorona - 2009/07 PS3: 48k / 66k

Ar Tonelico:
AT1 - 2006/01 PS2: 57k / 94k
AT2 - 2007/10 PS2: 68k / 97k

One could argue that the DS games don't count, but even without taking them into account I think my view is justified by the sales data. You are of course right that there aren't many data points for AT.

 

[Redroses]

[NDS] Dragon Quest VI (Square Enix) - 1150K
[PS3] End of Eternity (Sega) - 130K
[360] End of Eternity (Sega) - 66K
[PS3] Ar tonelico III (Namco Bandai) - 86k

on a side note, what are the LTD for pokepark and pokemon BR.

 

[Takao]

[NDS] Dragon Quest VI (Square Enix) - 870k
[PS3] End of Eternity (Sega) - 160k
[360] End of Eternity (Sega) - 60k
[PS3] Ar tonelico III (Namco Bandai) - 70k

 

[LINK.AGE76]

My predictions:

[NDS] Dragon Quest VI (Square Enix) - 875k
[PS3] End of Eternity (Sega) - 160k
[360] End of Eternity (Sega) - 55k
[PS3] Ar tonelico III (Namco Bandai) - 40k

 

[Nirolak]

[NDS] Dragon Quest VI (Square Enix) - 920k
[PS3] End of Eternity (Sega) - 170k
[360] End of Eternity (Sega) - 70k
[PS3] Ar tonelico III (Namco Bandai) - 52k