thestopsign
Member
Still waiting for numbers... come on leak, I know you can do it!
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Media Create Sales: Nov 23-29, 2009
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
Not our lucky day, Famitsu finally put up the top10...but fucked linking it or something:
http://www.famitsu.com/game/rank/sokuho/1230353_1796.html
Should be minutes till they fix it any other week...this one who knows :lol
http://www.famitsu.com/game/rank/sokuho/1230353_1796.html
Should be minutes till they fix it any other week...this one who knows :lol
The_lascar
Member
thestopsign
Member
Spiegel said:
A bit over 100k seems like a reasonable prediction. Wouldn't be completely surprised if it's a bit higher though.
Spiegel said:
I think December effect is the biggest X-Factor here. Huge software launches on Wii have failed to lead to huge hardware spikes in the past. Mario Kart Wii didn't bump hardware despite debuting at 600k+. Brawl week was the closest comparison we have to NSMB Wii in terms of a giant first week debut. I think Wii sales that week were in the 80k range.
I don't see the need for these constant straw men and offensive demeanor. Do you really think I'm saying only Iwata/Stringer/Gates know the WiiWare/PSN/XBLA numbers? If you do, I suggest you improve your reading comprehension. If not, why act as if you do?ethelred said:
It's entirely possible some people are privy to enough information for this, but I don't think any of us are.ethelred said:
You might be too busy trying to insult me to have noticed it, so I'll bring up the issues I have with it again:ethelred said:
1.) I can understand how Edery would have a lot of knowledge about the overall XBLA market, but not PSN or WiiWare.
2.) What does "top in terms of market right now" mean? Does it refer to sales numbers or revenue? LTD or over a current time period? If the latter, how long of a period?
3.) Again, there's not a single reference to the Virtual Console in that article. Is he comparing the much younger WiiWare alone to PSN and XBLA?
Tsk tsk.ethelred said:
TheRagnCajun
Member
I'll guess 81k Bob.
Hero of Legend
Member
I predict every console and game will sell more than 1, mark my words.
onken said:
I went back and checked Wii sales for the week of Brawl. Hardware sales were higher than I remembered. 105k Famitsu/95k M-C. But that was off of an install base of 5M. We shall see what NSMB Wii does. I'd say there is a 50/50% chance of it hitting 90-100k.
DS "only" sold 128k off of a 2.3M launch of DQIX, so huge software launches don't always result in record hardware numbers.
Hero of Legend
Member
gunther said:
:O
thestopsign
Member
kswiston said:
The fact that it's moving towards the holiday season should also be a factor though. I think NSMBW could spark an early holiday season for the Wii.
Cosmonaut X
Member
gunther said:
I take it that's a prediction...
VegaShinra
Junior Member
Still no software or hardware numbers? WTF Come on Famitsu, fix the link. :lol
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Even Swan Crystal and original Xbox?Hero of Legend said:
Cygnus X-1
Member
Today is maybe one of the most interesting Media Create Charts and...we don't get any numbers. How disappointing.
gerg said:
Mario Kart Wii debuted over 600k. Wii hardware bump was less than 5k on Famitsu and less than 2k on M-C over the previous week. Wii userbase at the time was 5-6M at the time. There wasn't exactly an over-abundance of similar games to MKWii on the system at the time.
I think that MK Wii failed to lead to a huge hardware spike because most of the day1/week1 buyers had already snagged a Wii for one of the other hugely popular and accessible multiplayer games (Wii Sports, Wii Play, Smash Bros Brawl, etc).
The same thing applies to NSMB Wii. There hasn't been a new 2D mario on Wii yet, but there have been several platformers (2D and 3D), accessable multiplayer titles, and Mario titles.
I think the December effect combined with NSMB Wii might push Wii sales beyond the 100k mark. However, if NSMB Wii came out in June or September when Wi sales were averaging 20-25k a week, I doubt we would have got a 6 digit hardware number.
If Wii sales end up being 130k+ this week, then I will of course admit being completely wrong and I will bow down to NSMBs amazing hardware selling powers.
I'm sure that Nintendo is hoping that NSMB contributes to a sustained and higher hardware baseline, rather than a frontloaded spike. I'm not sure about Japan, but it appears that in the US, NSMB is not particularly frontloaded - demand appears to be increasing rather than tapering off.
gkrykewy said:
I can see this happening. At least for Dec and early January. I don't think it will have a Wii Fit affect on hardware sales, but I think it will boost bottom line sales for the next 6 weeks, leading the Wii to beat PS3 in December (and YTD) despite the upcoming FFXIII bump.
thestopsign
Member
Is it bad that the whole no numbers thing ruined my day?
gcubed said:
It depends. There was a recent thread about how the Wii skyrocketed up Amazon's "Movers & Shakers" list, which charts the change in positions of items on its Best Sellers list. Of course (although I believed otherwise at the time), as with most percentage/ranking-based information, this doesn't give us any worthwhile information at all. (Excitebots had a 70,000-something percent rise in sales, for example.) That thread got a suitably bad reception.
"Best sellers" lists on retailers' websites are probably more accurate, but still very vague, indications of demand, if only for those websites. Even then, the conclusion that "game released in November is more popular in December" is hardly revelatory.
gcubed said:
While purely anecdotal is not everyday Amazon.com completely sells out of a console game and requires you buy via their marketplace. And by all accounts Black Friday saw insane sales of NSMB Wii even though it was released before.
The big difference is other infamous users were laughed off gaf because they pointed to things like ******** and anecdotal evidence as fact.
test_account
XP-39C²
I have been thinking a little about this for some days now and i wonder, how much does it matter for a publisher/developer to build a fanbase for their games on a system? Serious question, i am wondering about itC.T. said:
To take one example, from what i know, Square Enix hasnt exactly been building a fanbase for their games on the PS3, does this means that there is a possibility that the FFXIII sales will be affected because of this?EDIT: How many released games has Square Enix developed for the PS3 so far by the way? Is there any more games other than Final Fantasy Crystal Defenders (which is a downloadable game through the Playstation Network). Maybe Square Enix has published some PS3 games, but what about own Square Enix developed games for the PS3?
TheRagnCajun
Member
Stopsign said:
Wensday doesn't have a lot else going for it....except Zero Punctuation.
test_account said:I have been thinking a little about this for some days now and i wonder, how much does it matter for a publisher/developer to build a fanbase for their games on a system? Serious question, i am wondering about it
I think there are exceptions like DQ or FF main titles which will sell on every system well.
boiled goose
good with gravy
test_account said:I have been thinking a little about this for some days now and i wonder, how much does it matter for a publisher/developer to build a fanbase for their games on a system? Serious question, i am wondering about it
EDIT: How many released games has Square Enix developed for the PS3 so far by the way? Is there any more games other than Final Fantasy Crystal Defenders (which is a downloadable game through the Playstation Network). Maybe Square Enix has published some PS3 games, but what about own Square Enix developed games for the PS3?
not the best example since FFXIIII has been announced for PS3 since before the system launched. People that already bought a PS3 already expect the game to come.
The fanbase of the game might be less "active" since there hasnt been much support, but the effect should not be that large. Better support should have helped a tiny bit, but if you look at the Xbox install base even though it has tons of high profile Jrpgs, it is hard to know how big the effect would be...
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
I think things like COMGNET / Amazon "best sellers" charts are good for a few things and bad for a few things.
- I think comparing one console to another on the basis of Amazon sales is pretty foolish.
- I think that speculating on sellouts or sellthroughs on the basis of one retailer is absolutely foolish; wide-spread sellouts (for things like the Wii at launch) can be tracked through aggregate retail supply trackers which check things nation-wide. Vinnk's Village, particularly in the end days as things started to shift, demonstrated how different geographic areas could lag or lead others.
- I think that trying to use multipliers is foolish ("Amazon sales are up 100% so sales must be up 100%").
- I think that any kind of promotion disqualifies use of retailer-specific charts for anything but the conclusion that the promotion is successful or not. For example, if Amazon sells Folklore for $9.99 and it goes up by 40% in sales, the promotion was not successful. If it goes up 1000%, it probably was successful. On the other hand, I don't think this can cause you to draw any conclusions about overall sales.
We already know from history that certain retailers have disproportionate sales of certain games, franchises, or consoles. Sometimes this is because of retailer benefits, other times it's just a "good fit" in terms of traffic. Wal-Mart, for example, is known to have more than its share of Nintendo sales, for whatever reason. This has been a claim that's been made even prior to Nintendo's explosion of success.
- On the other hand, I think that in general, high presence on a chart suggests good sales. It's highly unlikely that Super Robot Butt Smashers is going to sell 10,000 units on COMGNET and 12,000 units overall; a retailer top 50 ought to roughly mesh up with the overall top 50 even if the actual fixed order is not identical.
- I think that if there are no promotions involved, a significant jump or decline in a product at one retailer probably reflects a general growth or decline. Again, it's important that you don't use the percentages here, but I don't think a significant jump on Amazon is going to happen in a vacuum.
The thread was locked because the conclusion drawn was drastically more reaching than the evidence provided and the evidence provided was entirely anecdotal retail stuff. The evidence provided was that Amazon had sold out, and two other retailers whose online services aren't half as robust had also sold out, and the conclusion drawn was that NSMB was comparable to the Wii's launch and that demand had gone up month over month. Plus the thread title invited a pissing match like the one in the original thread.
- I think comparing one console to another on the basis of Amazon sales is pretty foolish.
- I think that speculating on sellouts or sellthroughs on the basis of one retailer is absolutely foolish; wide-spread sellouts (for things like the Wii at launch) can be tracked through aggregate retail supply trackers which check things nation-wide. Vinnk's Village, particularly in the end days as things started to shift, demonstrated how different geographic areas could lag or lead others.
- I think that trying to use multipliers is foolish ("Amazon sales are up 100% so sales must be up 100%").
- I think that any kind of promotion disqualifies use of retailer-specific charts for anything but the conclusion that the promotion is successful or not. For example, if Amazon sells Folklore for $9.99 and it goes up by 40% in sales, the promotion was not successful. If it goes up 1000%, it probably was successful. On the other hand, I don't think this can cause you to draw any conclusions about overall sales.
We already know from history that certain retailers have disproportionate sales of certain games, franchises, or consoles. Sometimes this is because of retailer benefits, other times it's just a "good fit" in terms of traffic. Wal-Mart, for example, is known to have more than its share of Nintendo sales, for whatever reason. This has been a claim that's been made even prior to Nintendo's explosion of success.
- On the other hand, I think that in general, high presence on a chart suggests good sales. It's highly unlikely that Super Robot Butt Smashers is going to sell 10,000 units on COMGNET and 12,000 units overall; a retailer top 50 ought to roughly mesh up with the overall top 50 even if the actual fixed order is not identical.
- I think that if there are no promotions involved, a significant jump or decline in a product at one retailer probably reflects a general growth or decline. Again, it's important that you don't use the percentages here, but I don't think a significant jump on Amazon is going to happen in a vacuum.
The thread was locked because the conclusion drawn was drastically more reaching than the evidence provided and the evidence provided was entirely anecdotal retail stuff. The evidence provided was that Amazon had sold out, and two other retailers whose online services aren't half as robust had also sold out, and the conclusion drawn was that NSMB was comparable to the Wii's launch and that demand had gone up month over month. Plus the thread title invited a pissing match like the one in the original thread.
test_account said:I have been thinking a little about this for some days now and i wonder, how much does it matter for a publisher/developer to build a fanbase for their games on a system? Serious question, i am wondering about it
If its a big franchise like a Mario game, FF, DQ, or Resident Evil I would say it does not really matter.
FFXIII is not a good example because quite a few PS3 can still play PS2 and PSX games which means the previous FF library is readily available, not to mention the PSN release like FFVII which helps in the argument you are building a fanbase.
test_account
XP-39C²
Ye, i also think so. FFXIII was just the most recent upcoming example that i could think of, but what about other game series in general besides DQ or FF?cw_sasuke said:
Ye, maybe it wasnt the best example indeed, i agree, but FFXIII was just the most recent upcoming example that i could think ofamtentori said:
But what about other game series in general?Stumpokapow said:
Good post.
The one hard and fast rule I think works out virtually 100% of the time is pretty simple..if the software isn't charting high on these charts at the time of release, then it isn't going to have a good opening. That doesn't mean that it will sell high because its at the top of Amazon's best seller list..but it means it has a chance.
The only exception I've seen at least in Japan is the real casual Wii stuff that seems to come out of nowhere.
I'd add that for Japan I think Comgnet has a lot more value than Amazon.
test_account
XP-39C²
Sorry, i didnt see your reply before after i had posted my previous post, so i didnt get to reply to your post in my previous post.markatisu said:
Maybe FFXIII wasnt a good example indeed, i agree, it was just the most recent upcoming example that i could think of
But what about other game series in general?thestopsign
Member
markatisu said:
It definitely applies to niche games more. Look at what the shooter genre is doing on the 360. It has been chosen as "the" shooter console and every shooter fan knows it. This means that every single shooter game is going to sell to that built-in install base.
In the case of SW3, which I think you guys were talking about. The game is switching platforms to system not known for its Musuo games, while the other systems are still getting most of the Musuo games like the one coming out in March. It's the inconsistency that makes fan bases get split up.
gcubed said:
Please don't compare me to Snah/Hans/Hoffman/Wollan. I mean, really :lol
Yes, the thread was a bit of a reach, and was a bit provocative. However, this really *is* an unusual circumstance, and I think the official numbers will end up bearing out my initial conclusions that sales are up month-on-month, and that Nintendo has another phenomenon on its hands.
Amazon percentages are useless, but there is meaningful information to be drawn from Amazon on occasion. Having a single title stay at number 1 so far beyond its release date in the context of so many other high profile releases and bargains... not typical, even among blockbusters. New copies selling at a premium; used copies selling at a $10 premium? Again, not at all typical.
And oh look, it's ebay too: http://cgi.ebay.com/New-SUPER-MARIO..._Games_Games?hash=item4838975732#ht_500wt_946
Stumpokapow said:
This is a fair criticism, and I did start that thread too -- although not to start a pissing contest between fanboys. I just <3 sales age! :lol
Remember this? The original PSD is 3 and a half years old! Thought I'd do this again since we've got a new Mario release that'll likely climb for months to come. I've upgraded the chart to next-gen standards and will try to update it every time Mario climbs to a new position. Enjoy!