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[casiopao]

I mean, Level 5 could come up with a new IP that somehow taps into new demographics and blows away the likes of Inazuma 11 and Yokai Watch, but I doubt it's happening a 3rd time.

I had hard time seeing this happen in the upcoming future if at all right now.

Sorry but this still doesn't mean anything, remember SMT for PS3? Chocobo Racing 3DS?

I'd rather have cold hard announcements rather than franchise announcements, because it doesn't mean they're definitely coming.

Well patient then? 4 months of PS4 also had quite a small amount of cold hard announcements at all.

The games on/coming to the system are lower effort, rather than the newer, big multiplatform games.
Many of these have (like Dragon Quest Heroes and Ultra Street Fighter II) underperformed and likely will continue to do so.
Meanwhile the successes of the games that have been successful (like Puyo Puyo Tetris and Super Bomberman R) will not signal higher budget efforts from the publishers, but more of those lower budget affairs.

Wii had the same problem.

4 months is too short of a period to mention that there is any trend.

Hell, the number of big third party title for Switch is still almost zero. Lets see for some future first here?

 

[Oregano]

I don't think the Switch's third party situation is good and I don't think it matters the system was just announced when the games it's aiming to secure as third party support are multiplats of PS4 games. It's not like when the PS4 launched where it was an entirely new power envelope and there was nothing hardware wise to share some of the games. With the Switch it's in the middle of the generation with the system it's suppose to share it's major support with. Stuff should be announced far quicker than the PS4.

In the same notion, people talking about announcements of franchises not counting or the games not going to be mainline or late. The PS4s entire catalogue of relevant big third games are cross gen (persona 5, MGS5, DQB, DQH, Tales), vaporware (KH3, FF7:Re) or mid tier new franchises (nier). The only old traditional franchises on PS4 worth anything at this point released is FF15 and lol if that is suppose to be a big deal at this point. It's going to be outsold by fucking Zelda. DQ11 isn't out (And will be on Switch), MHW isn't out. I'm sure I have missed a few but overall I struggle to see how the PS4 has taken over in dominant fashion. We just got to the point where it hasn't had to share games with PS3.

Switch has some time to garner some support but the current landscape is not good imo.

That's part of Switch's problem really. It's coming right on the cusp of when third parties are dropping PS3 and now Vita and third parties aren't developing games with those specs in mind any more. Something like Dynasty Warriors is a great example, after years of Vita games that franchise is overwhelmingly likely to skip Switch altogether because PS4 is the new target.

 

[ldar247]

I don't know why I bother, but I would again implore you and Oregano to look at the actual data of what PS4 initial support looked like. And on a related note, stop comparing a 3 month old system to a system in its 4th year.

New mainline KH, MGS and FF announced for it before the system even luanched, Yakuza at launch (which is a bigger series than fucking SMT), an exclusive remake of motherfucking FFVII at its first E3.

 

[Principate]

If find that funny, because I remember people saying the same thing about the Wii, which was my point.

Did you somehow completely forget about MH tri and others like it? The wii got plenty of third party support not as long lived as the PS3 but to say it didn't is verifiably false.

 

[PdotMichael]

I don't think the Switch's third party situation is good and I don't think it matters the system was just announced when the games it's aiming to secure as third party support are multiplats of PS4 games. It's not like when the PS4 launched where it was an entirely new power envelope and there was nothing hardware wise to share some of the games. PS4 games are now in full production Swing, it shouldn't take the Switch as long to get going. With the Switch it's in the middle of the generation with the system it's suppose to share it's major support with. Stuff should be announced far quicker than the PS4.

In the same notion, people talking about announcements of franchises not counting or the games not going to be mainline or late. The PS4s entire catalogue of relevant big third games are cross gen (persona 5, MGS5, DQB, DQH, Tales), vaporware (KH3, FF7:Re) or mid tier new franchises (nier). The only old traditional franchises on PS4 worth anything at this point released is FF15 and lol if that is suppose to be a big deal at this point. It's going to be outsold by fucking Zelda. DQ11 isn't out (And will be on Switch), MHW isn't out. I'm sure I have missed a few but overall I struggle to see how the PS4 has taken over in dominant fashion. We just got to the point where it hasn't had to share games with PS3.

Switch has some time to garner some support but the current landscape is not good imo.

Playstation 4 has pretty much all third party consoles franchises - only left are typical handheld IPs. I don't know about dominating but it pretty much covers everything the Japanese industry has still left and there is no reason to believe why it should stop in the future.

Getting two of the largest third party IPs (Dragon Quest and Monster Hunter) again on a Playstation platform within 9 months is indeed impressive.

 

[Nirolak]

Because Japanese 3rd parties are typically slow to transition to a new system.

Yes. In the lead up to the Switch unveil, I tried mentioning that it took 9 months for Japan to start supporting the 3DS, and it was closer to 12-18 months for the Vita and PS4 depending on what you count as real support.

Given the state of the industry, I don't think it's unrealistic that it takes closer to the long end of the Vita/PS4 support timeline. Japanese companies are overwhelmingly propped up on successful mobile and/or Western businesses at this point, so there's not much of an incentive for them to hurry and support the Switch.

Square Enix: On track to be a $1 billion a year mobile company, had FF15 and Nier notably overperform overseas. Actually perhaps the Switch's biggest supporter despite this, but clearly one of Japan's biggest risk takers.

Bandai Namco: May actually already be a $1 billion a year mobile company. Mostly sells conservative consoles and portable licensed games where platform doesn't matter, while their biggest dedicated game hits are 80-90%+ Western focused titles like Naruto, Tekken, Dragon Ball, and the Souls series. They'll show up on Switch when it's convenient and the primary audience for their cheapy licensed games is there. Has several announced already, but they're coming in closer to the 9-12 month mark.

Koei Tecmo: Working heavily on mobile success with partners. On console, their internal games are targeting overseas audiences (either in the West or Asia), and their Switch games are straight up made with Nintendo. Has expressed interest in larger scale Switch support as their technology for the platform matures.

Sega: I'm not sure what people wanted that they're not providing. Both Sonic games are there, and Atlus announced a new SMT title. However, Atlus is unlikely to launch a new major game for several years, so that inherently fits with slow support. Yakuza isn't there, but by Nagoshi's own words, it targets older Japanese men, who are more of a PlayStation audience. It's not clear Sega has anything else in development. Sega is also a $500+ million a year mobile company with a strong Western PC business to boot, so no pressure there.

Level-5: They're releasing 3DS and mobile games because their primary audiences are children and casual gamers. Even Nintendo is still focusing on those platforms for those audiences. The Switch is expensive and has a limited audience right now, so that makes sense. Level-5 barely talks about Ni No Kuni because it's really not part of their business strategy, and rather part of Namco's big (by their standards) Western-targeted game strategy. That said, they seem to have an Inazuma Eleven game in the works for Switch.

And then there's Capcom. As far as I can tell, most of the panic revolves around one game from this company. Sure, they're not a huge success, but they've had four years in a row of operating margin growth, and seem to have refocused on their historically successful Western console business. That Monster Hunter followed that trend really isn't the end of the world for anyone involved, but people have enshrined that game as such a crown jewel in their mind that both sides go completely ballistic over where the franchise shows up.

And, as another future prognostication, the Switch will never even get close to the volume of games the 3DS had, not because third parties will never care, but because it takes endlessly more resources to make a Switch game than it took to make a 3DS game, and no one is going to increase their Japanese game investment by 4-8 times to keep up that volume.

 

[EDarkness]

Did you somehow completely forget about MH tri and others like it? The wii got plenty of third party support not as long lived as the PS3 but to say it didn't is verifiably false.

Oh I'm not saying it didn't get ANY third party support. But I don't think anyone would call the support it got fantastic, either. I own a ton of games for the system, but I think you would be hard pressed to find many people who praised the support it got outside of Nintendo.

 

[wrowa]

The lack of portability will do more harm to the MonHun series than XX ever did. And that theoretical 2019 MonHun game for the Switch might be too late to repair the damage.

This situation really isn't all that different to Monster Hunter Tri. Monster Hunter exploded in popularity on PSP and despite of this Capcom decided to release the next episode on a console. This lead to a 2 1/2 year gap between MHP2G and MHP3rd.

Did this harm the MH series? MHP3rd went on to become the best-selling entry in the series, so I suppose not.

So, what's the difference this time around? MHW will likely sell roughly in Tri's ballpark, so it's not as if we're expecting a catastrophic failure here. A longer gap between portable entries might even be beneficial to combat franchise fatigue. *shrug*

 

[Chris1964]

Just pointing out that having a large install base doesn't mean third parties will jump on board in any significant way.

For the competition it faced from DS and PSP even Wii had some big announcements, for the period it was relevant in Japan. Who will compete Switch and alt its sales like Wii, PS4?

 

[Tamanator]

I assume the bomba that was the Wii U port of Yakuza 1&2 ended any possibility of that series being multiplatform?

 

[Principate]

Oh I'm not saying it didn't get ANY third party support. But I don't think anyone would call the support it got fantastic, either. I own a ton of games for the system, but I think you would be hard pressed to find many people who praised the support it got outside of Nintendo.

Many of those games sold bucket loads however which is what we're talking about right? Otherwise this conversation is just nonsense "this system didn't get games I like thus it had no third party support!!".

 

[Gotdatmoney]

Playstation 4 has pretty much all third party consoles franchises - only left are typical handheld IPs. I don't know about dominating but it pretty much covers everything the Japanese industry has still left and there is no reason to believe why it should stop in the future.

Getting two of the largest third party IPs (Dragon Quest and Monster Hunter) again on a Playstation platform within 9 months is indeed impressive.

It didn't have them exclusively was the point. Those games appeared on Vita and PS3 because the PS4 couldn't sustain them by itself. Are we suppose to now believe the PS4 magically will?

 

[Nirolak]

I assume the bomba that was the Wii U port of Yakuza 1&2 ended any possibility of that series being multiplatform?

Given the series' sinking Japanese sales and growing Asian/Western sales, I imagine if they ever bother porting it, it would be to PC, which is a strong platform in both growth regions.

It's also on a proprietary technology stack, so that's an added hurdle.

 

[Oregano]

I might be mistaken but Vita and PS4 have a higher volume of releases than 3DS so that isn't even a high benchmark. It shouldn't be difficult to hit a similar mark.

 

[sphinx]

And, as another future prognostication, the Switch will never even get close to the volume of games the 3DS had, not because third parties will never care, but because it takes endlessly more resources to make a Switch game than it took to make a 3DS game, and no one is going to increase their Japanese game investment by 4-8 times to keep up that volume.

but what about low(er)-budget (compared to Zelda et all.) third party efforts like Bomberman?

you don't see them being a factor in Switch's life (in japan or otherwise)?

 

[Nirolak]

but what about low(er)-budget (compared to Zelda et all.) third party efforts like Bomberman?

you don't see them being a factor in Switch's life?

Sure, but I still think you're more likely to get one of those for each four 3DS games that existed.

I might be mistaken but Vita and PS4 have a higher volume of releases than 3DS so that isn't even a high benchmark. It shouldn't be difficult to hit a similar mark.

In 2017, or compared to the 3DS's peak?

 

[casiopao]

And, as another future prognostication, the Switch will never even get close to the volume of games the 3DS had, not because third parties will never care, but because it takes endlessly more resources to make a Switch game than it took to make a 3DS game, and no one is going to increase their Japanese game investment by 4-8 times to keep up that volume.

I would also add the fact that mobile is more enticing nowadays with higher ceiling of market gain vs traditional gaming market+ the fact that there are lesser traditional gaming exclusive company nowadays is going to decrease the amount of game Switch and any future traditional platform would receive.

 

[Fiendcode]

Just pointing out that having a large install base doesn't mean third parties will jump on board in any significant way.

Wii was up against two larger install bases in DS and PSP. Switch won't be, this is an irrelevant comparison to even make.

 

[Aters]

I don't understand why we are talking about 3rd party support. In the west, 3rd party dominates the chart, and you absolutely want COD, GTA, FIFA on your console. In Japan Splatoon is CoD, Pokemon is GTA, and they are not 3rd party. The only 3rd party that matter are MH, DQ, FF, and maybe Minecraft, and three of them are on Switch. Do we really need to list all those small fish 3rd party games when they are irrelevant in the grand scheme of Japanese market? A console that getd a MH several months into its life cycle, a console with DQ announced for it even before its reveal is not getting 3rd party support? Where are the DQ and MH announcements in 2014 when PS4 launched?

 

[Demoli]

I don't understand why we are talking about 3rd party support. In the west, 3rd party dominates the chart, and you absolutely want COD, GTA, FIFA on your console. In Japan Splatoon is CoD, Pokemon is GTA, and they are not 3rd party. The only 3rd party that matter are MH, DQ, FF, and maybe Minecraft, and three of them are on Switch. Do we really need to list all those small fish 3rd party games when they are irrelevance in the grand scheme of Japanese market? A console that getd a MH several months into its life cycle, a console with DQ announced for it even before its reveal is not getting 3rd party support? Where are the DQ and MH announcements in 2014 when PS4 launched?

GTA still sels a lot in japan, it still charts every other thread.

 

[EDarkness]

Many of those games sold bucket loads however which is what we're talking about right? Otherwise this conversation is just nonsense "this system didn't get games I like thus it had no third party support!!".

How much they sold wasn't the point, but stating that having a high install base was no guarantee that there would be a shift in third party support.

 

[Oregano]

Sure, but I still think you're more likely to get one of those for each four 3DS games that existed.


In 2017, or compared to the 3DS's peak?

I might be wrong but hasn't Vita had more releases every year? Including at the 3DS' peak?

3DS will have had more in 2011(and probably total) due to its headstart.

PS4 is probably getting more releases at its peak than 3DS did....(that one might definitely be off).

 

[EDarkness]

I might be wrong but hasn't Vita had more releases every year? Including at the 3DS' peak?

3DS will have had more in 2011(and probably total) due to its headstart.

PS4 is probably getting more releases at its peak than 3DS did....(that one might definitely be off).

I've been wondering about this as well. If I had time, I would actually look this up.

 

[MatrixMan.EXE]

Sorry but you're going to need to be called out here. As someone who's been reading these threads for years, it's not just Nintendo fans who have an agenda. There have been some folks that have already been pointed out, but to say it's 1 group vs another is incorrect. There are agendas everywhere here (frankly including yourself). If you want to talk about Monster Hunter jumping ship and switching focus, which it has at the moment, it's hard to do so without any kind of agenda period.

It's a good job I called out Sony fanboys as well then isn't it?

 

[Principate]

How much they sold wasn't the point, but stating that having a high install base was no guarantee that there would be a shift in third party support.

That's entirely the point, in fact if you were to compare the software sales to the PS4 at similar points in their life I'd imagine they're around the same or a substantial bit higher.

There's no logic to your arguement.

 

[PdotMichael]

It didn't have them exclusively was the point. Those games appeared on Vita and PS3 because the PS4 couldn't sustain them by itself. Are we suppose to now believe the PS4 magically will?

Most of your listed games are cross-gen for the plain fact that they were in developement for many years.

It's plain fact that the PS4 is the main developement target for the majority of Japanese thrid party games, so, yeah, the industry thinks that's the PS4 is a viable platform.

 

[EDarkness]

That's entirely the point, in fact if you were to compare the software sales to the PS4 at similar points in their life I'd imagine they're around the same or a substantial bit higher.

There's no logic to your arguement.

I guess I don't understand your point, because we were talking about whether or not third party games would get announced, not how well games that were released sold. Please explain what you're getting at.

 

[Aters]

GTA still sels a lot in japan, it still charts every other thread.

And Zelda outsell it in less than four months. Again, small fish.
If we are counting all the 3rd party games, keep in mind Vita has more games than 3DS, which shows you how meaningless this metric is.

I guess I don't understand your point, because we were talking about whether or not third party games would get announced, not how well games that were released sold. Please explain what you're getting at.

Why are we talking about 3rd party support, when you just said yourself a console can sell well in Japan without those 3rd party?

 

[Principate]

I guess I don't understand your point, because we were talking about whether or not third party games would get announced, not how well games that were released sold. Please explain what you're getting at.

The wii had both, it didn't have as many as the PS3 but a number were announced and sol very well. Not disimilar to the 3DS. Your acting like the wii didn't have a very health third party ecosystem in Japan during it's peak which is the furthest thing from the truth.

 

[Gotdatmoney]

Most of your listed games are cross-gen for the plain fact that they were in developement for many years.

It's plain fact that the PS4 is the main developement target for the majority of Japanese thrid party games, so, yeah, the industry thinks that's the PS4 is a viable platform.

I mean, they are going to support the PS4 because of the West primarily and the decline of home consoles. But I think it's misguided to be propping the PS4 up as a juggernaut of third party support either. It's getting very few true exclusives or true next generation games from Japan and even major titles like DQ11 are multiplat because it cannot support big titles by itself.

So while I dont think the Switch has good support nor do I think it will continue forward with particular great support, it's going to get PS4 multiplats at some point because like I said, the PS4 can't support these games by itself. I don't really see where the idea it can comes from. Point me to all the exclusives lighting it up.

 

[ULTROS!]

And Zelda outsell it in less than four months. Again, small fish.
If we are counting all the 3rd party games, keep in mind Vita has more games than 3DS, which shows you how meaningless this metric is.

Grand Theft Auto V came out on the PS3 and did 700k. GTAV (PS3+4) in Japan is at 1m already.

 

[PdotMichael]

I mean, they are going to support the PS4 because of the West primarily and the decline of home consoles. But I think it's misguided to be propping the PS4 up as a juggernaut of third party support either. It's getting very few true exclusives or true next generation games from Japan and even major titles like DQ11 are multiplat because it cannot support big titles by itself.

So while I dont think the Switch has good support nor do I think it will continue forward with particular great support, it's going to get PS4 multiplats at some point because like I said, the PS4 can't support these games by itself. I don't really see where the idea it can comes from. Point me to all the exclusives lighting it up.

PS4 gets the majority of all third party games.

Not sure why "exclusively" is somehow relevant. For over a decade were MH and DQ exclusively on Nintendo systems now they are released on the PS4 - while they are even exclusive titles for some time. So right now Sony even gained more key third party IPs.

 

[EDarkness]

The wii had both, it didn't have as many as the PS3 but a number were announced and sol very well. Not disimilar to the 3DS. Your acting like the wii didn't have a very health third party ecosystem in Japan during it's peak which is the first thing from the truth.

No, I'm talking about perception of the third party support it got. I don't know how many times I've heard (even from Japanese people) about how the Wii didn't have any "good games". There were games released and were sold, as I said, I don't think many people consider the third party support it got to be amazing. So, the point being that a massive install base doesn't not guarantee that a system will get massive third party support or even awesome third party support.

 

[Refreshment.01]

And, as another future prognostication, the Switch will never even get close to the volume of games the 3DS had, not because third parties will never care, but because it takes endlessly more resources to make a Switch game than it took to make a 3DS game, and no one is going to increase their Japanese game investment by 4-8 times to keep up that volume.

As always enchanted to read. Nice company analyis.

Independently of the Switch getting (or not) as many games as the 3DS, your reasoning is at odds with what we saw with the Vita in terms of support.

Vita got lots of Japanese support and it was a system that constantly got outsold by the 3DS and did poorly elsewhere outside Japan. More importantly it was clear early on that it was a dead end platform.

im surely you don't remember since people always forget the predictions i made. But by any chance do you remember the argument i made years ago, about japanese developers moving the audiences to the dominant platform as they should? i got told that it would make sense for them to do so when the Nintendo unveiled whatever was going to be their next mobile platform.

Well i made that statement to prevent the cuarrent support situation from happening, there wasn't any need for these Japanese companies to delay the transition to Nintendo handhelds. Certainly, they didn't have any problems doing so for the PS4. Kind of a missed opportunity since it seems the Switch will put some good numbers in terms of install base.

 

[Fiendcode]

Koei Tecmo: Working heavily on mobile success with partners. On console, their internal games are targeting overseas audiences (either in the West or Asia), and their Switch games are straight up made with Nintendo. Has expressed interest in larger scale Switch support as their technology for the platform matures.

I would argue Koei Tecmo is already Switch's 2nd strongest 3rd party supporter after SE in terms of releases. Their Gust and Sangokushi divisions have already moved to Switch multiplatform support, it's Omega Force (Musou) and Team Ninja (western focused) that seem to be going for the partnership releases (DQ Heroes, FE Warriors). We'll see if those teams transition to more general support later I guess.

Sega: I'm not sure what people wanted that they're not providing. Both Sonic games are there, and Atlus announced a new SMT title. However, Atlus is unlikely to launch a new major game for several years, so that inherently fits with slow support. Yakuza isn't there, but by Nagoshi's own words, it targets older Japanese men, who are more of a PlayStation audience. It's not clear Sega has anything else in development. Sega is also a $500+ million a year mobile company with a strong Western PC business to boot, so no pressure there.

It's also worth pointing out that Nagoshi came out on stage at the January Switch unveiling and said his division was making unannounced games for the platform. I presume that meant RGG Studio although not necessairily Yakuza.


And as a sidenote, no Konami analysis? They've scaled their console development back massively but they do have two key recent Nintendo hits in Momotaru 3DS and Bomberman Switch. They're also the only platform partner who returned for Wii U Virtual Console and are continuing support there even after the system's been discontinued. There's rumblings now of bringing back Castlevania and possibly other classic IPs too.

 

[Lonely1]

The flaw on the argument is assuming that publisher always make sounds decisions.

 

[Fiendcode]

PS4 gets the majority of all third party games.

Not sure why "exclusively" is somehow relevant. For over a decade were MH and DQ exclusively on Nintendo systems now they are released on the PS4 - while they are even exclusive titles for some time. So right now Sony even gained more key third party IPs.

Over a decade? Monster Hunter didn't even make it 3 years being Nintendo exclusive unless you count only the mainline series. DQ was almost exactly 9 years off of PlayStation.

 

[Aters]

Grand Theft Auto V came out on the PS3 and did 700k. GTAV (PS3+4) in Japan is at 1m already.

And BOTW is still charting too. It clearly has better leg than usual Zelda games.

 

[PdotMichael]

Over a decade? Monster Hunter didn't even make it 3 years being Nintendo exclusive unless you count only the mainline series. DQ was almost exactly 9 years off of PlayStation.

The last main MH title on a Sony console was Monster Hunter 2. Dragon Quest 8 was released in 2004 in Japan.

 

[Busaiku]

And BOTW is still charting too. It clearly has better leg than usual Zelda games.

So is Grand Theft Auto V.

 

[Nirolak]

I suspect I'm not doing a good job expressing what I meant by support.

The Vita has 65 games (out of 578 games that charted total) that have sold over 100,000 copies LTD.

The 3DS has 187 games (out of 534 games that charted total) that have sold over 100,000 copies LTD.

While the Vita got more "support" in terms of total number of games, I feel that the 3DS got about three times as much meaningful support. I suspect the Switch to face a situation notably less favorable than the 3DS on this front. Mind, I realize a lot of those 100,000 sellers are from Nintendo.

The PS4 already has more 100,000 sellers (68) than the Vita does despite only having 311 games, because Japanese publishers put more support into that. This is despite the fact it's a home console (major headwinds) and has only been on the market a bit over three years in Japan.

 

[Fiendcode]

The last main MH title on a Sony console was Monster Hunter 2. Dragon Quest 8 was released in 2004 in Japan.

Portable/X series is mainline as well for all intents and purposes.

For DQ I was including spinoffs but if you want mainline it was Nintendo exclusive from DQIX (2009) to DQXI (2017).

 

[EDarkness]

I suspect I'm not doing a good job expressing what I meant by support.

The Vita has 65 games (out of 578 games that charted total) that have sold over 100,000 copies LTD.

The 3DS has 187 games (out of 534 games that charted total) that have sold over 100,000 copies LTD.

While the Vita got more "support" in terms of total number of games, I feel that the 3DS got about three times as much meaningful support.

The PS4 already has more 100,000 sellers (68) than the Vita does despite only having 311 games, because Japanese publishers put more support into that, and that overcame the challenges of being a home console only three years.

To be honest, this is all I ask for out of the NS. It doesn't need every game, but some key ones that are fun is more important. I just hope in a few years we can look upon it's Japanese lineup the same way as we look upon the 3DS lineup.

 

[Yeshua]

That's part of Switch's problem really. It's coming right on the cusp of when third parties are dropping PS3 and now Vita and third parties aren't developing games with those specs in mind any more. Something like Dynasty Warriors is a great example, after years of Vita games that franchise is overwhelmingly likely to skip Switch altogether because PS4 is the new target.

Dynasty Warriors 8 was made with PS3 spec in mind and was ported on Vita.
Dynasty Warriors 7 was made with PS3 spec in mind and was ported on PSP.

If Koei wants Dynasty Warriors 9 on Switch they will port, if they don't they won't, or will you tell me the power difference between PS4 and Switch is bigger than the difference between the PS3 and PSP ?

 

[Nirolak]

As always enchanted to read. Nice company analyis.

Independently of the Switch getting (or not) as many games as the 3DS, your reasoning is at odds with what we saw with the Vita in terms of support.

Vita got lots of Japanese support and it was a system that constantly got outsold by the 3DS and did poorly elsewhere outside Japan. More importantly it was clear early on that it was a dead end platform.

im surely you don't remember since people always forget the predictions i made. But by any chance do you remember the argument i made years ago, about japanese developers moving the audiences to the dominant platform as they should? i got told that it would make sense for them to do so when the Nintendo unveiled whatever was going to be their next mobile platform.

Well i made that statement to prevent the cuarrent support situation from happening, there wasn't any need for these Japanese companies to delay the transition to Nintendo handhelds. Certainly, they didn't have any problems doing so for the PS4. Kind of a missed opportunity since it seems the Switch will put some good numbers in terms of install base.

In general I think Japanese dedicated device companies tend to be way too cautious to their own disadvantage. I feel it's notable that Square Enix sticks their neck out pretty often, and is currently on the strongest growth path.

Platform transitions are certainly one of those areas, and I suspect we'll be having this same discussion in a couple more years when the PS5 comes out.

I would argue Koei Tecmo is already Switch's 2nd strongest 3rd party supporter after SE in terms of releases. Their Gust and Sangokushi divisions have already moved to Switch multiplatform support, it's Omega Force (Musou) and Team Ninja (western focused) that seem to be going for the partnership releases (DQ Heroes, FE Warriors). We'll see if those teams transition to more general support later I guess.


It's also worth pointing out that Nagoshi came out on stage at the January Switch unveiling and said his division was making unannounced games for the platform. I presume that meant RGG Studio although not necessairily Yakuza.


And as a sidenote, no Konami analysis? They've scaled their console development back massively but they do have two key recent Nintendo hits in Momotaru 3DS and Bomberman Switch. They're also the only platform partner who returned for Wii U Virtual Console and are continuing support there even after the system's been discontinued. There's rumblings now of bringing back Castlevania and possibly other classic IPs too.

I don't feel Konami is likely to put out a lot of retail 100,000+ games, and I usually count games by publisher instead of developer. Like, I would view Dragon Quest Heroes as Square Enix's commitment to the Switch, not Koei Tecmo's.

 

[sanstesy]

I think it's fair to say that third party support for the Switch is not looking like an improvment even comparing it to the Wii U and that is weird. There is no reason why some of these Japanese 3rd party games couldn't also release on the Switch and that should be cause of concern if you care about that. The earlier you represent a brand on a console the better its audience will transition to that hardware. If third party support comes 2-3 years after the fact while all these franchises kept releasing on other consoles it will have a hard time growing that type of audience at that point of the consoles lifespan.

 

[Laplasakos]

I suspect I'm not doing a good job expressing what I meant by support.

The Vita has 65 games (out of 578 games that charted total) that have sold over 100,000 copies LTD.

The 3DS has 187 games (out of 534 games that charted total) that have sold over 100,000 copies LTD.

While the Vita got more "support" in terms of total number of games, I feel that the 3DS got about three times as much meaningful support. I suspect the Switch to face a situation notably less favorable than the 3DS on this front. Mind, I realize a lot of those 100,000 sellers are from Nintendo.

The PS4 already has more 100,000 sellers (68) than the Vita does despite only having 311 games, because Japanese publishers put more support into that. This is despite the fact it's a home console (major headwinds) and has only been on the market a bit over three years in Japan.

Wow, i didn't know the last part about PS4. Makes sense though, since PS4 is ahead of PS3 both in hardware and software. It's even more impressive when you consider that some of these games are multiplatform with PS3/PSVITA and not PS4 exclusive.

 

[Kyoufu]

The PS4 already has more 100,000 sellers (68) than the Vita does despite only having 311 games, because Japanese publishers put more support into that. This is despite the fact it's a home console (major headwinds) and has only been on the market a bit over three years in Japan.

How many of those include western titles from western publishers that Vita never really got the kind of support from?

 

[EDarkness]

Platform transitions are certainly one of those areas, and I suspect we'll be having this same discussion in a couple more years when the PS5 comes out.

Undoubtedly, unless something drastically changes in how companies do things in Japan. I think it'll be even more interesting next year.

 

[Nirolak]

How many of those include western titles from western publishers that Vita never really got the kind of support from?

It looks about 15 or so. Good point.