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Media Create Sales: Week 4, 2013 (Jan 21 - Jan 27)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
yup
srsly i thought we would get wario by february but that obviously did not happen... still even if nintendo just cruises by the next few weeks they may do okay in march and beyond once they have the games. if wiiu sells 10k - 15k a week even after wii fit u or wii party u launches i will begin to worry
electroplankton
Banned
The fact that there exists a market does not mean that the market is feasible for the company. There existed also a market for the Dreamcast. Was the platform profitable ofr the company? No. The market must be big enough to allow the hardware house to earn profits, and the third parties to sell their games. I think that more than one year in the market with such abysmal sales are quite indicative on how big the market for Vita is. In the West is nonexistent, in Japan is ultraniche and completely irrelevant.
I think it is hard to say how much affect it had on the hardware sales. The Vita has been down around the 5k/6k mark before, so a drop this week could have been bigger if there were no games released. But who knows.
I didnt mean that the games were better than nothing, i ment that i think its better to show upcoming games earlier than not show anything at allI was wondering about what you said that it was useless to advertise the Frebruary and March line-up early on. I'm wondering when you think it would be better to advertise the games, and what would be a better alternative.
Indeed, Vita could have dropped more without those games, and we cannot observe counterfactuals; still, the platform wasn't able to increase at all, and that's quite worrying.
Btw, I didn't mean it was useless to advertise the line-up early on. I was saying that it was useless to scream here and there that Vita has a good line-up in Feb/Mar when the line-up rely mainly on existing fanbase. Vita must find new users, but it's not able to do so.
mentalfloss
Banned
Wii U looks fine to me.
Because it had good launch numbers. The recent weekly sales are very low though, even lower than Vita's at the same point after its launch. And with the line-up the Wii U's got, it doesn't look like they will get better soon.
I think they dropped them in the ocean because Western devs haven't done much either.
So how many units will Soul Sacrifice sell and how much hardware will push out its first week? I think it could sell roughly 250-350k in Japan if Sony is lucky and can push as high as 100k vitas and as low as 25k vitas. I think it will be around 100k but it will drop to 35-40k the week after and then 20k, 15k and under 9k as usual
After 8 weeks
NSMBU 450k , WiiU 750k
attache rate: 60%
week 8
NSMBU 6.883 , WiiU 13.746
attach rate: 50%
Also it´s quite ridiculouse to say something like this to a game that will outsell any PS3 game in Japan.
H_Prestige
Banned
Such as? Are you talking about games like ni no kuni? Pretty sure that bombed.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Ninokuni, Disgaea, Eternal Sonata, Musou, Armored Core, Yakuza, Tales, Gundam, One Peice, Hatsune Miku, Atelier, Valkyria, Basara, Steins Gate, Clannad, Kiseki, etc, etc. Some will continue, but less of it than on PS3. Just as less continued on PS3 after PS2, or Vita after PSP. We already know SCEI's recruitment modus operandi from YSOP's revealing interview awhile back: build it and hope they come.
test_account
XP-39C²
If Sony loses a lot of money keeping the Vita on the market, then i can see it being a problem indeed. I was thinking more about if games like Demon Gaze could sell good, maybe it could lead to more support. The PSP has gotten a lot of these smaller selling games over the last years, and if the Vita could get more of them, it would be a positive thing. If there is more support overall, the hardware could also follow. I dont have any concrete opinion about exact sales numbers, but at least it could keep the system for sale and be available on the market for the years to come. But only time will tell =)
It did increase a bit according to Media Create. But personally i didnt expect those two games to push the Vita hardware that much, so i'm not more or less worried now than last week. I think these two games appeal more to excisting Vita users, and i would not be surprise if there is some overlapping between the game as well (as in one person buying both games, not ~50k different people buying the games). I would be more worried if it was Soul Sacrifice that was released this week and the Vita hardware sales numbers were exactly like this week's numbers
Ah ok, like that, i understand.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Yes, they're essentially the new NEC or Sega.
lordfroakie
Member
Nvidia Shield?
Sohter.Nura
Member
The fact that people are buying NSMBU when they are buying a Wii U does not automatically make it a system seller. I do think it actually it sells the system, just doesn't do a great job at it.
What the other guy is referring to is that it didn't manage to light up the system and connect the userbase with the system, like Pokemon and Tetris did for the Game Boy, Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Mario Kart and NSMB Wii did for the Wii, CoD did for the PS3 & 360, Gears of War did for the 360, etc.
StreetsAhead
Member
Bazinga.
I think (although I wasn't exactly one of them) that people were predicting/expecting/hoping there would be more games, especially 1st party ones, out in Japan or releasing soon than there currently are when they were saying stuff like the Wii U would dominate. In reality though, it's a system with less than 15 largely Western, retail games and no new releases in 5 weeks.
Whether or not it's all according to plan (it's clearly not, at least not 1st party) is irrelevant. This is the situation that is, and this is hardly unexpected because we just witnessed a simillar issue with the Vita's launch last year, a system whose line-up had little to know compelling games for the market. Nintendo clearly did misjudge the absolute selling power of 2D Mario @ launch. It's selling at a high attach rate, but it's evidently not a title people rush out in unprecedented Wii-esque numbers to buy with the system.
Durangorbis will suffer the same fate in Japan too, if their launch line-ups end up being similarly Western-focused, which I think is probably inevitable at this point.
Woah, woah, there 100k? That would be absolutely crazy. Persona 4: The Golden, the best selling Vita game in Japan so far sold 137,000 first week and pushed the Vita to 34k. Soul Sacrifice is a completely new IP for a userbase of 1.2 million. There is no realistic way that every one of four Vita owners is gonna buy the game. That would be insane.
electroplankton
Banned
If the only support Vita can get is made of ultraniche games, well, it's worrying. And it doesn't seem Vita is able to attract something else. Do we know some big game from third parties, possibly exclusive, slated for a 2013 release? A platform cannot survive in the market with only Demon Gaze-like games. And I don't think Sony released the platform to only receive such games. I think, instead, Sony was convinced Vita would have got a PSP-like support.
Because PSP got a lot of that ultraniche support, true, but it also got many high-profile games from third parties. Other than Monster Hunter, Square Enix released two high profile Final Fantasy and two high profile spin-offs in the series, and a main Kingdom Hearts, for example.
More support overall, well, it's easy to do better than doing nothing. But you should specify which support are you pointing out. Because DC could not survive with a quite good support from third parties, and GC could not survive with Nintendo IP. Will Vita survive with Nippon Ichi and Compile Heart games? I would say no.
It did increase a bit according to Media Create. But personally i didnt expect those two games to push the Vita hardware that much, so i'm not more or less worried now than last week. I think these two games appeal more to excisting Vita users, and i would not be surprise if there is some overlapping between the game as well (as in one person buying both games, not ~50k different people buying the games). I would be more worried if it was Soul Sacrifice that was released this week and the Vita hardware sales numbers were exactly like this week's numbers
The problem is that next games are also appealing to the existing userbase.
I'm willing to bet these blue-ocean type games are being worked on as we type. Iwata recently made the exact point that you just made, referencing the same games and declaring that Wii U needs something similar before it becomes a success like DS. Nintendo will likely take at least 5 stabs at it this generation, just as they did last gen with Wii Fit, Wii Party, Wii Music, etc.
These heavy hitters Wii U is getting... I'm really curious what they are because as heavy hitters I can see only Mario Kart, 3d Mario and Zelda. What exactly will revive Wii U? Wii Fit, Wii Sports, Wii Party or WarioWare? Give me a break.
Pikmin could do something but far from heavy hitter.
The Wii U lineup is a hell of a lot better than what the Vita got its first year/holiday. You also missed Smash Bros and possibly Donkey Kong (it's sold about as well as Zelda in its history).
What qualifies as "heavy hitters"?
I've actually followed that sale closely, and however stupid it is, I didn't buy one because I want a white one (also the Geo sale is over if I'm not mistaken, although their latest flyer doesn't mention used Vitas, so it may be on sale again... Layton vs AA is 3000 yen used though, which is amazing)
I'm not sure I understand, are you asking what "heavy hitters" are coming to the system in the immediate future?
Smash is but another 2d platformer won't succeed if Mario failed there.
???
Pikmin isn't going to make waves. It might do well but it's not going to be a blockbuster title.
In all seriousness, if MK and a 3D mario hit by year's end, they could help the system a lot. Could. Not guaranteed. It's also pretty tough to gauge how well "wii" line games such as Wii part are going to do. They could be break out casual hits, they could flop, it's just too damn hard to predict. Either way though, Wii U is going to look a lot better than it is now by years end. Of course, that doesn't take much, but it seems you're too quick to write it off.
Seriously, what don't you understand?
Mario U has already sold 2 million to a 3 million userbase. It'll sell past 10 million during its lifetime. Also Smash is a fighting game, an extremely popular one at that (and one that really appeals to the hardcore base).
electroplankton
Banned
How much will Yoshi's Land sell? Less than 100k?
Kacho
Member
Are you being serious?
Yes, but obviously you aren't
electroplankton
Banned
But even if Chris is declaring Wii U dead, will be dead, right?
you've got a very interesting definition of what a platformer is.
Kacho
Member
Oh, it's just a poorly worded sentence. I see it now.
Ahh, makes a lot more sense now.
Still, not every games has to be a 5 million + seller. Platforms need those 1-4 million sellers in order to survive, and Nintendo has plenty of those (Kirby, Metroid, Pikmin, Star Fox, F-Zero, Kid Icarus, Mario __, etc) even if they don't always use them.electroplankton
Banned
Ahh, makes a lot more sense now.
No, Nintendo has only Mario, Mario Kart and Zelda now.
lol, I know you're being sarcastic, but even something like Yoshi Touch and Go sold over 500k, and the two mainline games (Island and Story) sold over 2.5 million.
Edit: Woah, talking about worldwide sales. Still, Touch and Go sold over 200k in Japan.
Ahh, makes a lot more sense now.
Since you want to make a serious discussion the success of Wii wasn't based at any of these titles, except Mario titles. It was Wii_ series that gave system the strength it had and the increased userbase helped everything else. Kirby, Metroid, Pikmin, Star Fox, F-Zero, Kid Icarus will have the same impact they had on GameCube with Wii U's situation.
I don't think it's that simple. I mean, you could be right, but it's also possible that the increased awareness that some Nintendo titles gained during the Wii era could help in the future.
test_account
XP-39C²
I'm mostly thinking of those smaller games like Demon Gaze etc. that can sell around 20k. The current situation isnt very good, so it shouldnt take a lot to make it happen i think. It could be enough to keep the Vita hardware on the market for the next years. But we'll see what happens =)
I dont think we know of any 2013 big third party titles coming. Come to think of it, i dont know of any big 3rd party titles coming later this year for all systems. Monster Hunter 4 is out this summer, but after that, i have no idea whats coming.
I dont think that is necessarily a problem. I can see it as a problem if someone can afford to only support one system, but if both things are appealing, that is something positive at least.
See, the problem with the GC wasn't the games, but the incredible amount of space between Nintendo games. The GC had a five month drought its first year in America, and a three month drought in Japan. And that drought happened just about every year.
Most of the times things are simplier than you think.
Games are always the biggest problem. There weren't system sellers for the console.
electroplankton
Banned
Big third party titles are not only those that can sell over a million. Indeed, no one of the PSP games I mentioned sold more than that. Anyway, 3DS is having Ace Attorney 5, Shin Megami Tensei IV, Professor Layton, Inazuma Eleven that can be considered big releases. And it is also more likely that 3DS will receive more announcements than Vita given its sales.
It's a problem if your platform is having one of the worst performance ever in Japan (e.g. worst than Dreamcast), and weekly sales are lackluster. Vita needs desperately a boost in hardware and no, Tales of the Hearts and Muramasa won't bring that.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Mother 2 will outsell every Vita game on PSN. :3