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[Pennywise83]

Yeah, all things considered, that seems remarkably consistent since RS. Dropping that much in sales from one generation to the next after the rise of smartphones isn't dire straits.

It's also worth noting that RS, DP, and BW all had two whole holiday seasons before the next game was out. XY had one. It could be argued that OMAS cannibalized XY.

Is OMAS more comparable to FRLG and HGSS?

The problem is, ORAS legs have been pretty dire as well - anyway, it sold on par with FRLG and noticeably lower than HGSS.

 

[Sandfox]

I mean, the franchise is declining and numbers speak for themselves - M18, for example, is the poorest performer among Pokémon movies. Then we can discuss the reasons why it's declining, and which direction GF should take to raise IP awareness and increase the popularity again. The decline of dedicated devices, though, should not be the only justification - Animal Crossing sold as well as on DS and kept its legs, for example. Pokémon should be able to do better than what it's doing.

I feel that that those games and their circumstances are too different for that to be an accurate comparison.

I don't really see what Game Freak could do and its not like the series isn't still one of the biggest out there so it may not be worth making big changes.

 

[DangerMouse]

Bah. Supremely disappointing.

Yeah, this should be way higher, I'm really excited for this game.

Gravity Rush second place on the PSN JP Store!

Nice!

 

[Chris1964]

The problem is, ORAS legs have been pretty dire as well - anyway, it sold on par with FRLG and noticeably lower than HGSS.

ORAS legs haven't been dire. It will outsell FRLG, which isn't expected if we look only at RS / XY.

HGSS was packed with accelerometer, it's not exactly a fair comparison.

 

[Kresnik258]

Mmm... Angelique has never been a massively popular IP. The series has always had its own niche following - the best-selling entry was Angelique 1999 on PS1 with 42k units; the latest entry, Angelique 2011 on PSP, sold around 14k units.

Thanks. Maybe I was just confusing it with the fact that it's quite an old IP so thought it'd have more of a following.

 

[Yoshi]

Maybe we need to look at the final shipment ltd per region to understand the picture better:

Japan: 4m or so (I think we can agree that this a responsible estimation)

EU/Other: 4m or so (JP and EU sales are about even, so should be around this ballpark)

NA: 8m? (You have been following NPD better than me, you probably can give a better estimation)

We also need to consider the effect of the NX, it could cut through the Wii U sales pretty hard. Gamecube shipped less than 1 million WW post the Wii release for example.

Do I understand this correctly that you are predicting Wii U to end up at 4 million in Japan? Hell no, that's not reasonable, that's GameCube level. Wii U will tank after NX launch completely (if it is a home console) and Wii U does ~600k at the moment per year and isn't even above 3 million. 3.5 million would be a great LTD result judging by the current situation imo.

 

[Moor-Angol]

Comg is really not the best barometer, especially for smaller games, but this is quite awful. It's preorders are bad everywhere. Xenoblade had a lot of preorders on most places, where on amazon the best version of Sharp fe is at the number 150 and the number 10 at only wiiu games. Not even on eshop rankings, where i think there's more fans of games like these, the game is doing well.

It's strange. I thought this game would do well. There's no rpg on wiiu that sold less than 100k, so there is a mild audience. Don't know why those people are not interested in this game.

Anyway, i will get it. If it sells like bayo 2, it would end with 60k ltd, but even bayo had better preorders and marketing. Don't know.

I wouldn't be worried, the game will sell: bundle, week 52 (or 53?), Persona "look"

the only doubt is if N is promoting the game or not, Splatoon showed that a good marketing campaign can do miracles and w/o promotion it will be cannibalized by Splatoon, the only game people wanna play on the WiiU

 

[Pennywise83]

ORAS legs haven't been dire. It will outsell FRLG, which isn't expected if we look only at RS / XY.

HGSS was packed with accelerometer, it's not exactly a fair comparison.

ORAS legs were okay until Summer, but its disappearance from the chart is a bit worrying since Pokémon games tend to sell well under holidays and no other mainline games have been releasing since last year.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Wii U Bundled Hardware Sales (Super Mario Maker and Splatoon) - 36.000

Do you know which bundle is doing better?
I guess Mario Maker should sell more since cost less.

 

[L~A]

Do you know which bundle is doing better?
I guess Mario Maker should sell more since cost less.

Media Create doesn't say.

Wii U Bundled Hardware Sales (Super Mario Maker and Splatoon) - 36.000

That's exactly what I was saying the other day when we were discussing the price of the bundles. Nintendo knew/knows those would sell well during the holidays, so they didn't bother pricing them lower.

Would they have sold more Wii U if they had picked up a lower price? Most definitely. Would they have made as much as money? Not sure at all. This was definitely a safe and risk-averse choice... then again, why go the risky route for the Wii U at this point in time.

Problem about Splatoon and Super Mario Maker is that yes, they improved Wii U sales, but people buying the console for them either:

- only play Splatoon or SMM
- buy second-hand games (which are most likely to be found aplenty in stores, and significantly cheaper).

I mean, besides MK8 (which was bundled with the Wii U until september), no other game benefited from Splatoon increase the Wii U baseline. Even new releases sell more or less the same as before Splatoon. So pricing the bundle lower in hope that software sales would compensate is not a good idea (especially since the bundles already come with a game).

***

About #FE, I agree with duckroll. It seems Nintendo is happy to let third-party cater to the core, which works more or less well on 3DS which has great 3rd-party support (nowhere near DS level, but still pretty healthy). But on Wii U, there's literally no third-party support, so core games are a tough sell.

I mean, #FE might appeal to JRPG fans but I believe there's a grand total of 3 RPG at retail on Wii U: DQX, XCX, and #FE. So even if someone is interested, they'll probably pass because there's nothing else that really appel to them. It's something that was already said for XCX when it launched (I believe it was also duckroll).

 

[1st Course]

Do I understand this correctly that you are predicting Wii U to end up at 4 million in Japan? Hell no, that's not reasonable, that's GameCube level. Wii U will tank after NX launch completely (if it is a home console) and Wii U does ~600k at the moment per year and isn't even above 3 million. 3.5 million would be a great LTD result judging by the current situation imo.

I don't think it will actually match the Gamecube, just slightly below that (maybe 3.6-3.7m). Just didn't want to get too specific.

Wii U Japanese shipment should be around 3m by the end of this quarter (with sell-through being 2.9m or so). An additional 600-700k shipment post-2015 should be doable I think.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

I don't think it will actually match the Gamecube, just slightly below that (maybe 3.6-3.7m). Just didn't want to get too specific.

Wii U Japanese shipment should be around 3m by the end of this quarter (with sell-through being 2.9m or so). An additional 600-700k shipment post-2015 should be doable I think.

Wii U will be >2.95 million easy by end of WEEK 53... are you talk about WEEK 52?

Anyway, this is what i predict for Wii U in Japan.

2012 - 600,000
2013 - 900,000
2014 - 600,000
2015 - 850,000
2016 - 500,000
2017 - 250,000
2018 - 50,000

LT - 3,750,000

the only doubt is if N is promoting the game or not, Splatoon showed that a good marketing campaign can do miracles and w/o promotion it will be cannibalized by Splatoon, the only game people wanna play on the WiiU

Was not Mario the only game which people wanna on Wii U?

 

[Jarod McChicken]

I was wondering if people would be interested in shots like these:


Or if they're too vague and inconclusive to bother.

It was funny seeing Goat Simulator in the top 3 for weeks at a time.

Nice, I didn't know there was such ranking in the japanese PS Store, is that weekly ?

Also, the few people that bought the game on Amazon.jp are loving the game at least, that's still kinda heartwarming for Kitty

 

[theprodigy]

leave the desperate mode out, COMG is not a nationwide indication, how is going on amazon?

also nintendo games often dont have a lot of preorders (COMG speaking), their strenght have also been selling in the long period

I wouldn't be worried, the game will sell: bundle, week 52 (or 53?), Persona "look"

the only doubt is if N is promoting the game or not, Splatoon showed that a good marketing campaign can do miracles and w/o promotion it will be cannibalized by Splatoon, the only game people wanna play on the WiiU

This is definitely sarcasm, but nice job stringing people along for the ride.

Comg is really not the best barometer, especially for smaller games, but this is quite awful. It's preorders are bad everywhere. Xenoblade had a lot of preorders on most places, where on amazon the best version of Sharp fe is at the number 150 and the number 10 at only wiiu games. Not even on eshop rankings, where i think there's more fans of games like these, the game is doing well.

It's strange. I thought this game would do well. There's no rpg on wiiu that sold less than 100k, so there is a mild audience. Don't know why those people are not interested in this game.

Anyway, i will get it. If it sells like bayo 2, it would end with 60k ltd, but even bayo had better preorders and marketing. Don't know.

Wait, what?

Now I want a Bayo 2 vs #FE comgnet comparison.

 

[Chris1964]

06./00. [PSV] Steins;Gate 0 <ADV> (5pb.) {2015.12.10} (¥7.344) - 38.746 / NEW <89,98%>
07./00. [PS4] Steins;Gate 0 <ADV> (5pb.) {2015.12.10} (¥8.424) - 38.156 / NEW <86,77%>
___

19./00. [PS3] Steins;Gate 0 <ADV> (5pb.) {2015.12.10} (¥8.424) - 8.645 / NEW <90,11%>
___

21./19. [3DS] Pokemon Super Mystery Dungeon <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2015.09.17} (¥5.076)
22./00. [PS4] Nitro+ Blasterz: Heroines Infinite Duel # <FTG> (Marvelous) {2015.12.10} (¥7.549)
23./17. [3DS] The Legend of Zelda: TriForce Heroes <ADV> (Nintendo) {2015.10.22} (¥5.076)
24./14. [3DS] Aikatsu! My No.1 Stage! # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2015.11.26} (¥5.627)
25./18. [3DS] Pokemon Rumble World <ACT> (Pokemon Co.) {2015.11.19} (¥3.996)
26./27. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2012.11.08} (¥4.800)
27./00. [3DS] Niko Puchi Girls Runway <ETC> (Happinet) {2015.12.10} (¥6.458)
28./24. [3DS] Pro Baseball Famista Returns <SPT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2015.10.08} (¥6.145)
29./38. [3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2012.07.28} (¥4.800)
30./29. [3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission 2 <TBL> (Bandai Namco Games) {2014.08.07} (¥6.145)
31./30. [3DS] PriPara Mezase! Idol Grand Prix No.1! <ACT> (Takara Tomy) {2015.10.22} (¥5.832)
32./35. [3DS] Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS <FTG> (Nintendo) {2014.09.13} (¥5.616)
33./22. [WIU] Animal Crossing: amiibo Festival <TBL> (Nintendo) {2015.11.21} (¥6.480)
34./31. [WIU] Mario Kart 8 # <RCE> (Nintendo) {2014.05.29} (¥6.156)
35./44. [3DS] Super Run For Money Tousouchuu Atsumare! Saikyou no Tousou Monotachi # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2015.07.09} (¥5.119)
36./20. [PS4] Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2015.12.03} (¥2.592)
37./36. [3DS] Mario Kart 7 <RCE> (Nintendo) {2011.12.01} (¥4.800)
38./13. [WIU] Yo-Kai Watch Dance: Just Dance Special Version # <ACT> (Level 5) {2015.12.05} (¥4.622)
39./00. [PS3] Nitro+ Blasterz: Heroines Infinite Duel # <FTG> (Marvelous) {2015.12.10} (¥7.549)
40./28. [WIU] Taiko no Tatsujin: Atsumete Tomodachi Daisakusen! # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2015.11.26} (¥5.724)
41./06. [PS4] Bloodborne: Complete Edition <Bloodborne \ Bloodborne: The Old Hunters> <RPG> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2015.12.03} (¥6.372)
42./00. [WIU] Super Mario 3D World <ACT> (Nintendo) {2013.11.21} (¥5.985)
43./43. [WIU] Super Smash Bros. for Wii U # <FTG> (Nintendo) {2014.12.06} (¥7.776)
44./00. [3DS] Style Savvy 3: Kira Kira Coord <ETC> (Nintendo) {2015.04.16} (¥5.076)
45./34. [3DS] Pokemon Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2014.11.21} (¥4.937)
46./37. [3DS] Picross 3D 2 <PZL> (Nintendo) {2015.10.01} (¥3.240)
47./00. [3DS] Super Mario 3D Land # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2011.11.03} (¥4.800)
48./40. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [1/1][New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2015.10.08} (¥5.389)
49./23. [3DS] Gudetama: Hanjuku de Tanomuwa <ETC> (Rocket Company) {2015.12.03} (¥5.184)
50./00. [WIU] Mario Party 10 # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2015.03.12} (¥5.616)

Top 50

3DS - 25
PS4 - 9
WIU - 9
PSV - 5
PS3 - 2

SOFTWARE

+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+
|System | This Week  | Last Week  | Last Year  |     YTD    |  Last YTD  |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+
|  ALL  |  1.065.000 |    877.000 |  2.263.000 | 32.435.000 | 39.624.000 |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+

 

[1st Course]

Wii U will be >2.95 million easy by end of WEEK 53... are you talk about WEEK 52?

Anyway, this is what i predict for Wii U in Japan.

2012 - 600,000
2013 - 900,000
2014 - 600,000
2015 - 850,000
2016 - 500,000
2017 - 250,000
2018 - 50,000

LT - 3,750,000



Was not Mario the only game which people wanna on Wii U?

I was thinking end of the year as of December 31 (since that when Nintendo's Q3 end)

 

[sörine]

I didn't question the PD staff, (it's actually 110 people and not 140 now, according to their fresh new website, by the way) since we were talking about Japan Studio. Also, it's impressive you can go as far as using Web Archives If the staff number is gone on the most recent refresh of WWS website, maybe there is a reason.

But then again, the staff number is not the problem. The problem is you were suggesting that Japan Studio is a special case of a lazy japanese gang (especially compared to Nintendo, of course) when you don't have more clue than everyone else about what's going on inside, and about how many dev/teams are working at the moment. The fact is Japan Studio output is barren, but you don't know if that's the result of a strategic decision or pure inefficiency.

I just grabbed a random screenshot, even earlier this year the Japan Studio page had the staff count though before the last refresh. Unless you're suggesting an incredibly recent mass staff exodus or some other critical event leading to unheard of turnover I'm not sure why you're so persistently skeptical of it? At the least I'd hope we can agree that yes Japan Studio is a rather large development group?

And no one called anyone lazy. Stop projecting. I also didn't draw the original Nintendo size comparison, I just clarified what "dwarf" actually means (of course).

'Scuse me, but localization of what exactly ? Nintendo western games ? When I was talking about localization, I was referring to Uncharted, The Order, The Last of Us, God of War, and so on. Everything from WWS is adapted for Japan.

Yes, Nintendo's western made games. EPD houses what used to be SPD3 which produced and oversaw localization for games like DKCR, Luigi's Mansion 2 or Lego City Undercover. NCL does also occasionally work with outside groups for localization as well, like 8-4 with Epic Mickey.

 

[Mory Dunz]

It's strange. I thought this game would do well. There's no rpg on wiiu that sold less than 100k, so there is a mild audience. Don't know why those people are not interested in this game.

Uh is this a joke or am I missing something. Isn't "every" rpg selling 100k on Wii u....only Xenoblade?


Oh, dqx I guess

 

[Ryng_tolu]

I was thinking end of the year as of December 31 (since that when Nintendo's Q3 end)

In that case yes, Wii U will be >2.95 million.
I predict 3 million by WEEK 53, which is the week ending 3 January 2016 ( or 2 January in the west).

 

[L~A]

Uh is this a joke or am I missing something. Isn't "every" rpg selling 100k on Wii u....only Xenoblade?


Oh, dqx I guess

It's not just that, DQX and XCX are basically the only other two notable Wii U RPG released at retail in Japan.

 

[FreedomFighter]

#FE finally charting on COMG, 8 point.

Millions incoming.

What a shame. It might've done somewhat decently if Nintendo did some marketing and didn't just send it to die.

 

[Chris1964]

I just noticed that Media Create tracks amazon.jp, Famitsu doesn't.

If someone wants to see sales trend for 2015, 2009 is a reference year we have numbers with the exact same dates.

 

[Mory Dunz]

It's not just that, DQX and XCX are basically the only other two notable Wii U RPG released at retail in Japan.

Yeah, that was my original point. I was saying that xeno and dq were the only rpgs period. So "every" seemed weird.

I guess there's child of light and maybe some indies, hence you said retail

 

[Kid Ying]

I never said "every". Just said " no wiiu RPG sold less than 100k, so there is an audience there". I know there are only two of those.

Nintendo did the same approach with X, but the game was from a mild franchise already and dq is dq after all. Back when xenoblade started with the Wii, it got a much bigger marketing. Don't know why nintendo stopped doing that, specially when you are trying to sell a brand new IP.

It's a shame, cause this one looks much more interesting than xenoblade. Well, it might sell well. Who knows.

 

[Mpl90]

Nintendo.jp has just started publishing blog posts with Weekly Top 10 eShop Charts, alongside weekly releases recap.

The first one is here (scroll down under the new releases)

https://topics.nintendo.co.jp/c/article/e5feb019-9fc7-11e5-a02c-0a6d14145cb1.html

Period covered {2015.12.7 - 2015.12.13}

Since no one did it yet, transcription time

Nintendo eShop Weekly Charts, Week 50 {2015.12.7 - 2015.12.13}

Nintendo 3DS

01. Monster Hunter X {2015.11.28}
02. Cube Creator 3D {2015.7.15}
03. The Battle Cats {2015.5.31}
04. Q {2015.11.18}
05. Story of Seasons {2014.7.24}
06. Kamen Rider Ghost Game!! {2015.12.2}
07. Monster Strike {2015.12.17}
08. Bike Rider DX {2012.12.26}
09. Daigasso! Band Brothers P Debut {2015.7.22}
10. Mario & Luigi: Paper Mix {2015.12.3}

Nintendo Wii U

01. Super Mario Maker {2015.9.10}
02. Splatoon {2015.5.28}
03. Dotpaint {2015.12.2}
04. Swords & Soldiers II {2015.12.9}
05. Mario Kart 8 {2014.5.29}
06. Art Academy Atelier {2015.11.12}
07. Art Academy Sketchpad {2013.8.8}
08. Genei Ibun Roku FE {2015.12.26}
09. Super Smash Bros. for Wii U {2014.12.6}
10. Nihilumbra {2015.12.9}

 

[Nirolak]

I thought I'd weigh in on some of our upcoming releases as well.

1.) Fire Emblem Wii U:

So, if we wind the clock back 6-8 months, I made a series of posts about Splatoon and how it was both very smartly designed for the market and how it really embodied what people had been asking for in a "New Traditional Nintendo IP" for years. Nintendo has been rolling out new IPs constantly, but you'd often see people either disqualify them for being "casual games" targeted at a different audience, or "not Nintendo games" because they resembled the core offerings you'd see on other platforms instead.

With Splatoon however, we saw a team at Nintendo really play and analyze a ton of third person shooters, find out what they really liked about them, internalize what sort of things were fundamental to the genre, and then come up with interesting new twists they could add in to differentiate their product and give it a strong base appeal.

While doing this, they slathered all of this in a variety of Nintendo's fundamental values like pick up and play gameplay with strong room for mastery, a bright and friendly aesthetic, an adherence to universal/worldwide themes, visually distinctive and memorable characters, an all ages approach to the target audience, and a variety of gameplay approaches to suit the tastes of the player.

For Fire Emblem Wii U, this is none of that. It's essentially an Otaku-oriented Atlus PlayStation JRPG with some Fire Emblem characters shoved in. As such, it's running into the exact same demographic barrier we saw Bayonetta 2 hit. There hasn't been a sea of third parties helping broaden the audience on the Wii U the way you see with the 3DS, so instead of Fire Emblem hitting the audience that was buying SMT4 or PersonaQ, we have a game that feels totally out of place and is being received as such.

If they wanted this to be a success, it would had to have been an attempt at making Fire Emblem appealing to the traditional Nintendo audience instead of trying to make a game to sell the Persona or Tales audience. That said, I'm assuming this was greenlit when they thought they'd actually have a situation like the 3DS where there was a sea of third party developers expanding the audience and that this would fit in that scenario. Being Nintendo, they wanted to see it through instead of canceling it, but also presumably want to minimize their losses, so I'm not expecting much promotional spend either.

2.) Exist Archive:

This strikes me as a game without that much going for it. I think I'd separate out the Pros and Cons as follows.

Pros:
- Tri-Ace is a generally competent developer.
- For those who realize it's like a Valkyrie Profile game, this is one of the first they could buy in a long time.
- It seems like a somewhat higher effort for Spike Chunsoft.

Cons:
- Tri-Ace doesn't have much of an inbuilt audience, as we can see from their games like Beyond the Labyrinth or Frontier Gate. Even when given the Phantasy Star brand, they took it a very short distance.
- I'm not sure this has actually been marketed as a Valkyrie Profile spiritual successor versus people like duckroll just noticing this.
- It's not actually Valkyrie Profile, in that it's not Square (or) Enix putting out a generally high production value console RPG. I feel that a non-trivial part of Valkyrie Profile's value came from that back in the day. This is clearly a budget title.
- I don't think it looks very good visually even of its own merits.
- Spike Chunsoft is still a really minor publisher in the grand scheme of things.
- If someone is looking for what they associate with a traditional Square Enix x Tri-Ace experience, they can just wait until Star Ocean 5 comes out in a few months.
- I'm not convinced this is an especially attractive launch window for a niche product like this. It doesn't strike me as the type of game a bunch of people are buying to gift to other people either.

 

[L~A]

I just noticed that Media Create tracks amazon.jp, Famitsu doesn't.

If someone wants to see sales trend for 2015, 2009 is a reference year we have numbers with the exact same dates.

Nice! Great to finally have a confirmation, since that's been a point of debate several times in the past.

... that also means some game really tanked even harder than we thought they did. Ouch.

***

Also, charts will be delayed next week since Wednesday is a public holiday.

Media Create: December 24th

&#8251;&#27425;&#22238;&#12398;&#12300;&#12466;&#12540;&#12512;&#12477;&#12501;&#12488;&#36913;&#38291;&#36009;&#22770;&#12521;&#12531;&#12461;&#12531;&#12464;&#65291;&#12301;&#12399;2015&#24180;12&#26376;24&#26085;&#12398;&#25522;&#36617;&#12434;&#20104;&#23450;&#12375;&#12390;&#12356;&#12414;&#12377;&#12290;

Famitsu: no notice on their website, so most likely same time as usual.

 

[theprodigy]

It's a shame, cause this one looks much more interesting than xenoblade. Well, it might sell well. Who knows.

Booooo this guy.

Also I see software is now ~7 million behind last year.

 

[Nirolak]

Booooo this guy.

Also I see software is now ~7 million behind last year.

And hardware is down a million as well.

Looking like yet another year of heavy decline for the dedicated device industry.

 

[Maniel]

And hardware is down a million as well.

Looking like yet another year of heavy decline for the dedicated device industry.

I wonder when it will bottom out. Maybe next year with the NX launch, but I still wouldn't bet on it.

 

[Nirolak]

I wonder when it will bottom out. Maybe next year with the NX launch, but I still wouldn't bet on it.

I imagine next year will be tough. The NX is presumably closer to the end of the year, I can't imagine the 3DS is going to maintain volume well with that on the horizon to boot, and the Vita can't have all that many years left in it. The Wii U will be treading on its software catalog as well.

I don't think any assumed PS4 gains will be enough to off-set that in any meaningful way either, especially given the PS3 has still moved 200K this year, but is basically dead now.

 

[Moor-Angol]

I wonder when it will bottom out. Maybe next year with the raise of PS4

fixed

 

[Pennywise83]

I imagine next year will be tough. The NX is presumably closer to the end of the year, I can't imagine the 3DS is going to maintain volume well with that on the horizon to boot, and the Vita can't have all that many years left in it. The Wii U will be treading on its software catalog as well.

I don't think any assumed PS4 gains will be enough to off-set that in any meaningful way either, especially given the PS3 has still moved 200K this year, but is basically dead now.

Next year 3DS will be declining but it is worth mentioning its line-up is way better than 2015: DQM Joker 3, MH Stories, YW3, DQXI and perhaps something big from Nintendo itself (new Mario game? Pokémon?). At least it should be able to hold better than expected.

2.) Exist Archive:

This strikes me as a game without that much going for it. I think I'd separate out the Pros and Cons as follows.

Pros:
- Tri-Ace is a generally competent developer.
- For those who realize it's like a Valkyrie Profile game, this is one of the first they could buy in a long time.
- It seems like a somewhat higher effort for Spike Chunsoft.

Cons:
- Tri-Ace doesn't have much of an inbuilt audience, as we can see from their games like Beyond the Labyrinth or Frontier Gate. Even when given the Phantasy Star brand, they took it a very short distance.
- I'm not sure this has actually been marketed as a Valkyrie Profile spiritual successor versus people like duckroll just noticing this.
- It's not actually Valkyrie Profile, in that it's not Square (or) Enix putting out a generally high production value console RPG. I feel that a non-trivial part of Valkyrie Profile's value came from that back in the day. This is clearly a budget title.
- I don't think it looks very good visually even of its own merits.
- Spike Chunsoft is still a really minor publisher in the grand scheme of things.
- If someone is looking for what they associate with a traditional Square Enix x Tri-Ace experience, they can just wait until Star Ocean 5 comes out in a few months.
- I'm not convinced this is an especially attractive launch window for a niche product like this. It doesn't strike me as the type of game a bunch of people are buying to gift to other people either.

Well, people following jRPG news did see the game as a spiritual sequel to Valykrie Profile - tri-Ace, overlapping staffs, combat system, mild scenario similarities.

The point is, all of those pros and cons can be applied to The Legend of Legacy (which looked a way lower-budget project to be honest) - but the game went to sell 75-80k units (in January).

 

[Maniel]

fixed

I wish, but as Nirolak already stated, ps4 next year will have to make up for the ~200k ps3s sold this year as well as any losses that Vita has. At best, ps4 could sell 1.8 million like the ps3's highest year, but even then it would barely cause the playstation family to be up in a meaningful way. The only hope next year for growth is the NX as I see it.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Nice writeup on FE shaaarp.


One of those occasions where a "boring" or more generic type jrpgs woukd have done better imo. Not like the Wii U has one. But I'm for developers making what they want.

 

[twothunder]

40k LTD for #FE? That seems pessimistic af. Surely it'll do closer to XCX numbers at least?

I never had high expectations of #FE. Yet. I actually expected it to outdo Xenoblade x at least. Now.. i'm not so sure anymore. Hope it at least comes a little closer than 40K

 

[Man God]

I imagine next year will be tough. The NX is presumably closer to the end of the year, I can't imagine the 3DS is going to maintain volume well with that on the horizon to boot, and the Vita can't have all that many years left in it. The Wii U will be treading on its software catalog as well.

I don't think any assumed PS4 gains will be enough to off-set that in any meaningful way either, especially given the PS3 has still moved 200K this year, but is basically dead now.

3DS might do pretty well next year or it might languish. Monster Hunter Stories, Pokemon Z, DQ XI, MH Cross G, possibly another DQ remake to prime the pump. All of these are possible in calendar year 2016.

 

[Nirolak]

Well, people following jRPG news did see the game as a spiritual sequel to Valykrie Profile - tri-Ace, overlapping staffs, combat system, mild scenario similarities.

The point is, all of those pros and cons can be applied to The Legend of Legacy (which looked a way lower-budget project to be honest) - but the game went to sell 75-80k units (in January).

That would still be in the sales range I'd associate with a game without much going for it.

When we look back at Valkyrie Profile we've got:

[PS1] Valkyrie Profile - 311,630 / 634,965
[PS2] Valkyrie Profile 2: Silmeria - 302,867 / 401,687
[PSP] Valkyrie Profile: Lenneth - 73,529 / 168,515
[NDS] Valkyrie Profile: Covenant of the Plume - 73,779 / 157,712

If Exist Archive performs like that, we're talking about what, losing about half the audience that seemed attached to the brand name in anything resembling the recent era, and vastly down from when it was a notable series? It's not an impressive number in a vacuum either in the way a game going from 800K to 400K might be.

 

[1st Course]

http://dreamcancel.com/2015/12/17/kof-98-online-generated-43-million-usd-revenue-in-november/

SNK must be pleased.

 

[Asd202]

About Exist Archive. Am I the only that thinks that the game looks ugly? I don't dig the the art style at all. I love VP series but I have absolutely zero interest in that game, Indivisible on the other hand looks great.

 

[JetSetRadio]

Can someone explain me how can some people believe Wii U will end at 13 million?

Wii U is at 10.73 million by end of September.

Wii U WW holidays shipments:
2013 - 1,950,000
2014 - 1,910,000

Wii U is up YOY in Japan and Flat in USA. WW will be pretty close, most likely a bit more, but even with only 1.9 million, Wii U will be at 12.63 million by end of year.

Now, do you think Wii U won't sell over 370k after that?

Wii U shipped 390k in Q1 2013, 310k in Q1 2014, and 340k in Q1 2015.

Wii U will most likely be > 13 million by march 2016... But even 14 million seem low, i mean, after March has an intere year for sell, and even some unit in 2017...

Wii U will end at >15 million.

It doesn't make the slightest difference on the sold_like_shit scale.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

fixed

PS platforms never really peak. When was the last time they sold 5 million in a year? What was the PS3 peak, 2.5 million?

 

[Eolz]

It doesn't make the slightest difference on the sold_like_shit scale.

Selling more than the vita and the dreamcast every day baby!

Spoiler

But yeah I didn't see the point of this long post.

 

[ZoddGutts]

#FE was a huge turn off the moment it was shown, straight up Otaku bait with the whole idol thing. I mean you have a FE and SMT crossover with Atlus dev it collaborating with Nintendo and you get that? Not sure if that game has much appeal outside of Japan too.

Exist Archive while being a spiritual successor to Valkyrie Profile they choose the ugliest design to go with, huge turn off. Still hope it does decently that SE decides to approve a VP3 game.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Selling more than the vita and the dreamcast every day baby!

Spoiler

But yeah I didn't see the point of this long post.

I don't care if Wii U is selling like crap, i just hate when people don't use the math for make a prediction.

Like PS4 at 50 million lifetime, if someone would predict 50m lifetime for PS4, i would for sure write i similar super long comment, since is impossible for PS4 sell less than 80 million.

 

[HGH]

Nice, I didn't know there was such ranking in the japanese PS Store, is that weekly ?

What the tracking period for these charts? Weekly/daily?

Yeah, it's weekly.

 

[madstarr12]

It doesn't make the slightest difference on the sold_like_shit scale.

Apparently, sales numbers are a serious game here for some people, they need to know EXACTLY how it ranked in the "sold_like_shit" scale.

Spoiler

 

[theprodigy]

I don't care if Wii U is selling like crap, i just hate when people don't use the math for make a prediction.

Like PS4 at 50 million lifetime, if someone would predict 50m lifetime for PS4, i would for sure write i similar super long comment, since is impossible for PS4 sell less than 80 million.

PS4 will sell 50 million

Spoiler

by the end of 2016

Spoiler

That's just a minimum too silly

Also, just for kicks, comgnet comparison with 8 days left:
#FE: 8 pt (Fortissimo) + <=7 pt (regular) = 8-15 pt (who knows...)
Bayo 2: 15 pt
XBX: 46 pt
DQX: 55 pt
(Silly bonus-Fire Emblem Fates: 100 pt (Birthright) + 71 pt (Conquest) + 40 pt (SE) = 211 or 251 pt depending on how you're counting)

It's laughable because it's close, right Mpl90.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

PS4 will sell 50 million

Spoiler

by the end of 2016

I know you are joking, and i should not write this comment... but:

That's still too low, PS4 was at 29.3 million by end of last quarter, it will definitive be up YOY compared to last year which shipped 6.4 million, so, we are looking for minimum >35.7 million, most likely +37 million, but even with only 35.7m, PS4 will be at 15.8 million in 2015, assuming PS4 will sell equal to this year, ( but is unlucky since 2016 should be the peak ), PS4 will be at minimum 51.5 million.

It will probabily be between 55 and 57 million by end of 2016.

Spoiler

yes, i know i'm boring

 

[ZSaberLink]

#FE doesn't seem a high-budget game and I say its expectations should be set at around 170-180k units - indeed, it's a re-imagining of the cross-over between two quite popular IPs (Fire Emblem is more popular than ever; Shin Megami Tensei has its following). If the game were to be released on 3DS, for example, I would say the software house could have expected much more - 250k+. However, Wii U is a not a jRPG-friendly platform and the game looks totally out of place.



You're confusing personal predictions of how much a game I think will sell with reasonable expectations a software house should have (of course, speculations since we don't typically have much information about them).



Indeed, there are plenty of reasons why Pokémon is declining - this doesn't change the fact that it is declining. DP got huge legs but also suffered competition from Platinum in 2008 (it still sold 240k+ units) and HeartGold / SoulSilver in 2009 (it still sold 140k+ units). Pokémon mainline games have always had nice legs - see Emerald, GBA remakes, Black / White. Game Freak should really revise its business model and how to develop Pokémon games if they want to stop the decline (of course Pokémon is still a hugely popular IP, this is a given).

Are all the JPOP songs that cheap though? Just wondering.