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Microsoft FY2015 Q3: 1.6M 360+XBO Shipped

panda-zebra

Member
Even still they are doing better sales wise then the 360 at the same point of it's life, and they won't have a billion dollar write off this time around.
You know, that's less true each time someone repeats it? As time passes, the two are converging. If it wasn't for the initial 2 months of sales of bone... the trend tells a different story than the one you wish to illustrate.

I think its closer to a 6 or 7 million lead at this point.
6 or 7 million difference would only be closer if you compared sold to consumers (ps4) and shipped to retail (bone).
 

Fdkn

Member
Jumping into this thread now makes it really hard to follow exactly where the discussion went.

IMO
1. I think the people that think the xbox business is doing poorly or MS will/should sell it off aren't looking at the big picture. You don't have to be in first to make the most money or even turn a profit. MS realized that after the first xbox. sales may be down YOY but there's been a distinct lack of titles to drive that. Even still they are doing better sales wise then the 360 at the same point of it's life, and they won't have a billion dollar write off this time around.
2. To the people that think sony has a 10 million unit lead, people shouldn't forget that the xbone didn't launch in nearly as many regions as PS4 on launch. I think its closer to a 6 or 7 million lead at this point.
3. I also think sony can't physically make the PS4 much smaller this early. They already sacrificed space to make the current console small. MS went the other route making it larger but quieter. I think MS has some room to make the system smaller if they chose to do that.

don't forget that 1% of China
 

Sydle

Member
The Mobile phone market is 1.9 billion units a year. the tablet market is 230 million units a year, the tv market is 220 million units a year, the headphone market is 300 million per year, the PC market is 316m per year.

The Home console market is less than 35 million per year.

Thank you for the data, but I'm suggesting that tech consumers are savvy enough to understand frequent hardware refresh cycles and adjust their buying behaviors accordingly.

The gaming industry is about selling game software. I fail to understand how gaming hardware manufacturers adopting a common development platform and releasing a range of hardware options that are backwards and forwards compatible would be detrimental to game software sales. That common development platform would extend to even bigger hardware markets like mobile phones, PCs, and tablets.

Whatever happened to that XBL subsidized console that MS were heavily rumoured to be looking to roll out?

Are you talking about the Xbox Live subscription subsidy or the cable subscription? I think the former failed and the cable companies laughed MS out of the room.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Thank you for the data, but I'm suggesting that tech consumers are savvy enough to understand frequent hardware refresh cycles and adjust their buying behaviors accordingly.

The gaming industry is about selling game software. I fail to understand how gaming hardware manufacturers adopting a common development platform and releasing a range of hardware options that are backwards and forwards compatible would be detrimental to game software sales. That common development platform would extend to even bigger hardware markets like mobile phones, PCs, and tablets.

My point is more in line with
1. It wouldn't make financial sense for console manufacturers
2. Consumers wouldn't respond positively
3. The console market isn't big enough to sustain a yearly/bi-yearly upgrade model.

With phones for example, they are usually sold on contract and therefore the model works quite well as people will get a free upgrade every 2 years. With TV and PC we don't see people upgrading every year but the market for these products is massive with the overwhelming majority of the developed world owning a PC/Laptop or TV.

With console the market is much smaller and the upgrade model is more in line with PC/TV market where people will shell out a few hundred dollars on X product and then upgrade when they feel fit.

The way consoles are built is to take a loss on hardware and push software, and the amount of investment going into consoles is very expensive and so releasing a new console every year or couple of years just isn't worth it to manufacturers. Even if software sales do increase. Consoles usually aren't profitable until a few years after launch.

Even in the mobile market we see games being developed that run on phones from 5 years ago. Where as this console refresh cycle would mean we'd see more and more exclusive games on the newer hardware and less and less for the older hardware. Not great for the consumer and it's not really going to get casual/semi-casual users to shell out another few hundred dollars.

Besides the model hasn't worked in the past, look at the Sega 32x for example.
 

Feorax

Member
Are you talking about the Xbox Live subscription subsidy or the cable subscription? I think the former failed and the cable companies laughed MS out of the room.

The former.

Seems as though the whole idea got nuked when MS went into meltdown, which is a shame.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
The former.

Seems as though the whole idea got nuked when MS went into meltdown, which is a shame.

The Xbox 360 bundle was $99 upfront and then $14.99 a month for 24 months. Lets just say it never really took off when the console could be bought sub $199.
 

Felessan

Member
The gaming industry is about selling game software. I fail to understand how gaming hardware manufacturers adopting a common development platform and releasing a range of hardware options that are backwards and forwards compatible would be detrimental to game software sales. That common development platform would extend to even bigger hardware markets like mobile phones, PCs, and tablets.
You can look at the very same mobile phones you are talking about. Vast majority of games uses minimal share of flagship phones power, as they are made to run on everything up to several years ago. This quickly deflate value of new revisions in mass-market eys, especially given that consoles are devices primarily dedicated to gaming. And the market itself not so big to sustain R&D cost of revisions just by hardcore crowd, we have a PC for that.
And it's not like this idea was not tried before. Just consumers didn't really like it.
 

Sydle

Member
My point is more in line with
1. It wouldn't make financial sense for console manufacturers
2. Consumers wouldn't respond positively
3. The console market isn't big enough to sustain a yearly/bi-yearly upgrade model.

With phones for example, they are usually sold on contract and therefore the model works quite well as people will get a free upgrade every 2 years. With TV and PC we don't see people upgrading every year but the market for these products is massive with the overwhelming majority of the developed world owning a PC/Laptop or TV.

With console the market is much smaller and the upgrade model is more in line with PC/TV market where people will shell out a few hundred dollars on X product and then upgrade when they feel fit.

The way consoles are built is to take a loss on hardware and push software, and the amount of investment going into consoles is very expensive and so releasing a new console every year or couple of years just isn't worth it to manufacturers. Even if software sales do increase. Consoles usually aren't profitable until a few years after launch.

Even in the mobile market we see games being developed that run on phones from 5 years ago. Where as this console refresh cycle would mean we'd see more and more exclusive games on the newer hardware and less and less for the older hardware. Not great for the consumer and it's not really going to get casual/semi-casual users to shell out another few hundred dollars.

Besides the model hasn't worked in the past, look at the Sega 32x for example.

Console manufacturers creating their own tech to propel the industry forward is what cost them so much. The current generation of consoles were outclassed by PCs before they released. The biggest games in the world in terms of players aren't even on them. The most exciting developments in VR aren't exclusive to them.

The market is fragmenting more than ever. The major industry players in gaming want their games to reach more people. There's no big future in creating proprietary technology to lock in consumers on a single device. It's all about platforms going forward. Microsoft is doing it with Windows 10, Sony is doing it by putting their games on more devices (e.g., Sony TVs, Sony Blu-ray players, Vita, PS3, and PS4), and Nintendo is talking about it with their next hardware release and have already consolidated their development teams.

Why couldn't they go the general PC route to save money on all that R&D and adopt a development platform that allows them to continue releasing games across that hardware? The PC market has grown this way. It seems like the traditional console market is stagnant or even shrinking. Why hold on to that old model?

Why wouldn't consumers respond positively? They don't lose anything and instead get options based on their priorities. Graphics enthusiasts get what they want and people who don't prioritize graphics can get in at a lower costs.

The console market isn't big enough, but the gaming market is.
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
The game has changed since Xbox 360 and PS3 launched.

Smartphones/tablets have driven droves of people away from traditional console gaming. Just ask Nintendo. They offer portable convenient gaming on the go at a dollar a pop. So consoles at least need to deliver full fat gaming if they're gonna justify their $60 a game price point

Nvidia have super powerful GPUs. If you want performance in the region of 5-10x console gaming, if you have the money you can buy it TODAY. Theoretically, you could build a gaming PC today that will be more powerful than the next PS5.

PS4 is selling great i give them that but the game has changed. Morpheus will give a mid gen boost to the PS4 but if they really want to boom the market, they will need to improve performance before then.

1. Continue to build a cheaper PS4/XboxOne for the budget market. Develop an upgraded version for the enthusiasts every 2yrs. I will be the first to admit I will NOT upgrade to the first upgrade, but maybe I'll go for the 2nd or 3rd revision.

I would have no problem playing the Last of Us 2/Uncharted 4/Gran Turismo 7 at 720p30 on the original PS4 even as a day one owner. I quite like the 'option' of playing those at 1080p60 on PS4 2016 rather than wait until 2018-2020 to play the same games remastered. The long painful wait for next gen was excruciating. I understand the engineering and commercial challenges. However, choices never hurt no one.

These ideas are all horrible.

The console ecosystem stays healthy because people know what they what they are getting.

Bringing up completely different ecosystems as if they even matter to the conversation is just asking for trouble.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Console manufacturers creating their own tech to propel the industry forward is what cost them so much. The current generation of consoles were outclassed by PCs before they released. The biggest games in the world in terms of players aren't even on them. The most exciting developments in VR aren't exclusive to them.

The market is fragmenting more than ever. The major industry players in gaming want their games to reach more people. There's no big future in creating proprietary technology to lock in consumers on a single device. It's all about platforms going forward. Microsoft is doing it with Windows 10, Sony is doing it by putting their games on more devices (e.g., Sony TVs, Sony Blu-ray players, Vita, PS3, and PS4), and Nintendo is talking about it with their next hardware release and have already consolidated their development teams.

Why couldn't they go the general PC route to save money on all that R&D and adopt a development platform that allows them to continue releasing games across that hardware? The PC market has grown this way. It seems like the traditional console market is stagnant or even shrinking. Why hold on to that old model?

Why wouldn't consumers respond positively? They don't lose anything and instead get options based on their priorities. Graphics enthusiasts get what they want and people who don't prioritize graphics can get in at a lower costs.

The console market isn't big enough, but the gaming market is.

I thought you were talking about Sony/MS releasing an upgraded console every year or two. This sounds like you're talking about something completely different.
 

Moreche

Member
I'm personally hoping for mobile gaming to die a death, as much as I used to be on the mobile bandwagon, I've sold my iPhone and iPad as I just don't get the value out of them for what the initial cost is. Playing KOTOR on a tablet screen has lost its novelty for me.
I'm now back to PS4 and Xbox One for all of my gaming needs and I hope that Sony and MS have a long future with their gaming plans.
I understand the appeal of mobile gaming but I'd rather spend 1-2 hours a night in front of my TV with a controller than have something in my pocket that provides immediate gaming.
 
Thank you for this post. It was really informative. Is this information easily available from other publishers?
Not really, but thanks for reminding me I forgot to link my source. lol


Certainly something of interest to me and really does make sense. Where as last gen the Wii/PS3/360 were evenly matched with fluctuations towards all 3, this gen has seen one clear leader and a clear second place console. Whilst one publisher won't be representative of all publishers, it's clear that software sales worldwide are higher on PS4 due to the higher install base.
While the splits the others are seeing may not be identical, Ubi are a pretty big publisher, so apart from one-off deals like the AC bundling, I see no particular reason to think their sales aren't fairly representative of the industry as a whole.

I can only see US Centric games selling better on Xbox where as titles with a worldwide audience will certainly ship more on PS4.
Apart from Madden, what would even fit that description? Apart from sports games, I don't see a lot of regional distinctions within the West. I can see an argument for an East/West "divide," but it seems like anything that appeals to US gamers appeals equally to EU gamers, and vice versa. Are there any notable exceptions? FakeEdit: Oh, driving games don't do very well here, I think, but that's kinda the opposite example anyway.

I don't think so. I know Konami do but that's about it.

Konami_zpsrflgl00u.jpg
Cool, I didn't know Konami did splits too. Thanks!


2. To the people that think sony has a 10 million unit lead, people shouldn't forget that the xbone didn't launch in nearly as many regions as PS4 on launch. I think its closer to a 6 or 7 million lead at this point.
Frankly, as I was just explaining, it wouldn't matter if the Bone were 6-7M units ahead, because developers only care where their money is coming from. No matter what the actual platform split is today, it doesn't change the fact that Ubi's PS4 audience is more than twice the size of their XBone audience. When it's time to showcase your latest multi-million dollar gaming extravaganza, do you want to demonstrate it to 70% of your customers, or to 30% of your customers and with worse graphics? If you're taking a risk on a new IP and you want to reduce your risk by testing the waters with an easy-to-make exclusive, do you release it on the weaker platform that's a pain to code, or the powerful, easy-to-use platform that has more than twice as many users?

Whether they realize it or not, market share only matters to gamers insofar as it "dictates" platform support. Developers are going to follow the users, because that's where the money is. With more than double the audience of the nearest competitor, developers will eagerly queue to get on to Sony's stage so they can get their product in front of those eyeballs, and they won't leave until Sony turn them away. Rather than platform holders competing to buy the most commercials like we had last generation, we'll have developers competing with each other to demonstrate why they deserve a slot on the "big stage."


Q4 2014 is interesting because Microsoft had a huge exclusive marketing campaign for Assassins Creed. There were bundles etc. Only a 10% gain though which says a lot. Ubisoft were making bank on that marketing deal and then on every bundled copy of Assassins Creed. Really surprised they didn't make more of a dent.
Keep in mind, the bump came from the bundles, and not the marketing deal itself. We're charting Ubi's "sales" here, which would include their sales to Walmart, and their sales to Microsoft. MS purchased millions of copies of AC to include in their bundles, and they paid Ubi for them, just like Walmart would. We don't know how much MS paid for those copies, but we can see that Ubi's XBone sales were about €68M higher than one might've expected compared to the normal holiday bump. Also, since new XBone buyers were already getting Ubi's two biggest games, including the new hotness, the bundling actually would've lowered Ubi's normal sales to retail; Walmart don't need many copies of Parity for the Bone because "all" the new owners are getting a copy for free, plus a copy of Blag Flag to boot. So it's likely MS paid more like €80-100M directly to Ubi last Christmas, and Ubi sold another €100-80M worth to retail. So roughly half of Ubi's Bone revenue for the holiday quarter probably came directly out of Microsoft's pocket. Compare this to the €275.3M worth of PS4 software that retailers ordered entirely on their own.

The money for the marketing wouldn't be reflected under Sales though. I think marketing is usually grouped under Cost of Revenue, and the ad campaign would just have the effect of reducing Ubi's CoR; they don't need to run commercials for Parity because MS are already running them using their own marketing budget.
 

Felessan

Member
Console manufacturers creating their own tech to propel the industry forward is what cost them so much. The current generation of consoles were outclassed by PCs before they released. The biggest games in the world in terms of players aren't even on them. The most exciting developments in VR aren't exclusive to them.

Why couldn't they go the general PC route to save money on all that R&D and adopt a development platform that allows them to continue releasing games across that hardware? The PC market has grown this way. It seems like the traditional console market is stagnant or even shrinking. Why hold on to that old model?
First - global PC market on decline as well.
Second you seems don't really understand your own argument. The biggest games on PC in terms of players are made in such way that they can run on almost every possible hardware, even on those that are clearly targeted at wider non-gaming audience. Specialized, AAA games that target high specs are minority and usually don't do well even compared to console performance (I will not even compare them to those top player-count PC games).
Consoles, as a devices dedicated to gaming, can't really compete with general purpose cheap pc/notebooks those main purpose are internet/chat/facebook etc and the fact that the very same device can run LoL or likes is just a nice addition. So they need to carve out their own niche and that niche is high-performance gaming which has it's own pace and it's own implication when and how to release new hardware.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
While the splits the others are seeing may not be identical, Ubi are a pretty big publisher, so apart from one-off deals like the AC bundling, I see no particular reason to think their sales aren't fairly representative of the industry as a whole.

Oh yeah, general trends can be used. But what I mean is that if you look at some Japanese publishers for example the PS4 is much higher market share, where as western publishers still see the PS4 high but the Xbox One still accounts for a lot on its own.

Apart from Madden, what would even fit that description? Apart from sports games, I don't see a lot of regional distinctions within the West. I can see an argument for an East/West "divide," but it seems like anything that appeals to US gamers appeals equally to EU gamers, and vice versa. Are there any notable exceptions? FakeEdit: Oh, driving games don't do very well here, I think, but that's kinda the opposite example anyway.

Sorry, I think I phrased my point wrong, what I meant was the ratio, as in games like Madden and Call of Duty will see a closer ratio of PS4 Vs Xbox One where as games like Final Fantasy, Metal Gear and Fifa will sell much better on PS4 compared to Xbox One.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Unless it's a Nintendo platform like the Wii apparently.

The Wii had third party support from big and small publishers. In fact if you look at Ubisoft (the example being used) there was plenty of times where the Wii was their number 1 console for game sales.
 

Orca

Member
The Wii had third party support from big and small publishers. In fact if you look at Ubisoft (the example being used) there was plenty of times where the Wii was their number 1 console for game sales.

Nobody denies there was a lot of 'support' for the Wii, but the quality of the support is up for debate. Lousy versions of the blockbuster titles, or no port at all - for example.
 
I don't think dedicated consoles will ever exist anymore, some multimedia apps have to be available. The fault was the angle: X1 = "~Apple TV that BTW plays games". Sth you can easily fix when designing a new device. The market is there, MS just read it poorly.
MS will definetly want something to hook up to the TV, just like Apple, Google and amazon. Lumia-Surface-Xbox, all able to stream, sync and link with your Windows Laptop or Desktop, makes a ton of sense to me. Killing one of those three sends a message to anybody looking to get one of these devices. As far as the business solutions go, they have nothing to do with it and no stakeholder in MS would ever expect that a successful Xbox makes people switch from SAP to Dynamics. As far as MS consumer business goes the Xbox gets ppl MS accounts, exposes them to OneDrive, Skype etc. and the media services. That said, I expect MS to release one more gaming device. If that doesn't work just like X1 then maybe it's time to focus on sth selse.


The question is not if MS want to compete in the livingroom but is that if the device is a console or something closer and cheaper (to attract a bigger audience) like Apple TV, cromecast and similar devices. This would reach a lot more consumers, be cheaper and offer the same services you talked about just not play games in the way the current Xbox does.
 

mike4001_

Member
When it's time to showcase your latest multi-million dollar gaming extravaganza, do you want to demonstrate it to 70% of your customers, or to 30% of your customers and with worse graphics? If you're taking a risk on a new IP and you want to reduce your risk by testing the waters with an easy-to-make exclusive, do you release it on the weaker platform that's a pain to code, or the powerful, easy-to-use platform that has more than twice as many users

When publishers showcase a new game they mostly show PC footage anyway and mark it as console footage ;-)

And to reduce risk for a new IP it is best to place it on as many platforms as possible because the cost of developing a game for 2 (mostly similar) platforms are not that much compared to all the possible sales you get. Just look at what publishers do now. They develop a PS4 version in 1080p, reduce resolution to 900p and the game runs perfect on an X1. I really doublt they have to invest that much manpower into this.
 

Sydle

Member
First - global PC market on decline as well.
Second you seems don't really understand your own argument. The biggest games on PC in terms of players are made in such way that they can run on almost every possible hardware, even on those that are clearly targeted at wider non-gaming audience. Specialized, AAA games that target high specs are minority and usually don't do well even compared to console performance (I will not even compare them to those top player-count PC games).
Consoles, as a devices dedicated to gaming, can't really compete with general purpose cheap pc/notebooks those main purpose are internet/chat/facebook etc and the fact that the very same device can run LoL or likes is just a nice addition. So they need to carve out their own niche and that niche is high-performance gaming which has it's own pace and it's own implication when and how to release new hardware.

PC gaming market in terms of revenue has grown. Globally it has surpassed revenue from consoles and is projected to continue growing.

What of that requires a closed, proprietary system? High-performance gaming can be achieved on even small-form PCs, so we don't need Microsoft and Sony investing billions in R&D for proprietary tech to keep that moving forward.
 
1. sales may be down YOY but there's been a distinct lack of titles to drive that. Even still they are doing better sales wise then the 360 at the same point of it's life, and they won't have a billion dollar write off this time around.
Sure, there was no Titanfall this spring for MS, but why should a new customer care? They're joining a platform where they can buy all of the games that have been launched before. No matter what the current quarter's offerings, being down YOY despite that increased library, and despite the major cuts to price of entry, is not a good look for MS.

You're right, though, that Xbox One isn't losing them billions like the 360 did. In that respect it's a definite improvement.

2. To the people that think sony has a 10 million unit lead, people shouldn't forget that the xbone didn't launch in nearly as many regions as PS4 on launch. I think its closer to a 6 or 7 million lead at this point.
You're wrong. Best estimates are that Microsoft has shipped 12.5m-13.5m Ones. When Sony's figures for the same period are released in a few days, best estimates would put them between 22m and 23m shipped.

3. I also think sony can't physically make the PS4 much smaller this early. They already sacrificed space to make the current console small. MS went the other route making it larger but quieter. I think MS has some room to make the system smaller if they chose to do that.
I agree in principle, but I don't think MS will choose to redesign their console to be smaller, louder, and hotter. They absolutely cannot afford even the barest possibility of another RROD-type problem. (Not to mention that silent operation is key to their intended "input one" usage profile.) Therefore, I think MS will be waiting on a process node shrink for their APU to reduce console size. And that would allow Sony to follow suit.
 
The question is not if MS want to compete in the livingroom but is that if the device is a console or something closer and cheaper (to attract a bigger audience) like Apple TV, cromecast and similar devices. This would reach a lot more consumers, be cheaper and offer the same services you talked about just not play games in the way the current Xbox does.

A 99€ HDMI dongle that (somehow) streams games would be nice, but the online infrastructure won't be there at mass market level to support it. The customer structure is just very diverse. Pretty much every TV will have smart features by the time a new gen rolls around. But yeah, for people with a capable Windows PC a streaming solution would make a ton of sense.
Thing is, they had a pretty good tiered model going last gen (IMO). Those Arcade, Core and Elite versions of the 360 were a pretty clever way to reach different types of gamers in different situations. Each version was 100€ cheaper/more expensive IIRC.
The One just wasn't a "one fits all" console. They should have had a "X1 core" version at launch (no pass thru, no Kinect) for 299€, too. For the "I wanna play FIFA and CoD cheap" audience. IMO their best bet is to go that 360-route again next gen.
 

NolbertoS

Member
I was looking for this thread. Saw on the verge that MS xbox revenue fell 24% from last quarter I think. That's a huge chunk if cash that MS is losing. I guess those Xbox Division sales will start to hear up againa and Nadella will have to bow down to shareholders demand eventually like Nintendo's president.
 

Sydle

Member
I was looking for this thread. Saw on the verge that MS xbox revenue fell 24% from last quarter I think. That's a huge chunk if cash that MS is losing. I guess those Xbox Division sales will start to hear up againa and Nadella will have to bow down to shareholders demand eventually like Nintendo's president.

Not likely Nadella would do anything other than give his new strategy its fair shot.

Additionally, who would want to buy it when it's deeply integrated with Windows 10 and Azure?
 

Portugeezer

Member
Jumping into this thread now makes it really hard to follow exactly where the discussion went.

IMO
1. I think the people that think the xbox business is doing poorly or MS will/should sell it off aren't looking at the big picture. You don't have to be in first to make the most money or even turn a profit. MS realized that after the first xbox. sales may be down YOY but there's been a distinct lack of titles to drive that. Even still they are doing better sales wise then the 360 at the same point of it's life, and they won't have a billion dollar write off this time around.
2. To the people that think sony has a 10 million unit lead, people shouldn't forget that the xbone didn't launch in nearly as many regions as PS4 on launch. I think its closer to a 6 or 7 million lead at this point.
3. I also think sony can't physically make the PS4 much smaller this early. They already sacrificed space to make the current console small. MS went the other route making it larger but quieter. I think MS has some room to make the system smaller if they chose to do that.

1. PS4 doesn't have great exclusives to drive it either. You are right, relative to 360 it is not bad, but Xbox brand was nothing in 2005/06 compared to what it was in 2010+, it took a whole gen of work from MS to make Xbox brand something big and right now they are (and have) losing a big chunk of market share.
2. Well, shit, maybe 1% of the whole human population will buy an XB1.
3. If that is what is keeping people from buying it (as much as PS4), a new SKU could be a game changer.
/s
 
Oh yeah, general trends can be used. But what I mean is that if you look at some Japanese publishers for example the PS4 is much higher market share, where as western publishers still see the PS4 high but the Xbox One still accounts for a lot on its own.
Then yeah, I think we're in agreement. There's an East/West divide, and Eastern devs see a market even more skewed towards PS4, but even in the West where Bone software is "strong," is still being dwarfed by the PS4 sales. If and when you do need to choose one over the other — whether for something as inconsequential as a marketing deal or as important as launching a risky IP — it's not hard to decide whom to side with.

Sorry, I think I phrased my point wrong, what I meant was the ratio, as in games like Madden and Call of Duty will see a closer ratio of PS4 Vs Xbox One where as games like Final Fantasy, Metal Gear and Fifa will sell much better on PS4 compared to Xbox One.
Ah, right on. Then yeah, that makes sense.


And to reduce risk for a new IP it is best to place it on as many platforms as possible because the cost of developing a game for 2 (mostly similar) platforms are not that much compared to all the possible sales you get. Just look at what publishers do now. They develop a PS4 version in 1080p, reduce resolution to 900p and the game runs perfect on an X1. I really doublt they have to invest that much manpower into this.
Having looked at the relative sizes of single- and multi-platform teams, and having listened to devs complaining about the undue pressure placed on them by multi-platform development — even on platforms as similar as the PS4 and the Bone — I disagree with your underlying argument that porting costs are insubstantial. More to the point, you're confusing Risk and Reward.

Let's say I offer you your choice of lottery tickets. One costs $1 and has a $1M payout, while the other costs $2 and has a $10M payout. You choose the $2 ticket. Yes, you've increased your potential winnings tenfold, but the more likely outcome is that you just lost two bucks instead of only losing one, because you chose to double your Risk. If you try to increase your chances of success by increasing your investment, now you're out $20 for ten tickets instead of only $10. If you have $20 burning a hole in your pocket, then you need to ask yourself if you're better off going for the big win, or doubling your chances at the smaller prize.

You minimize your risk by minimizing your Risk; the amount of money you need to spend to determine if there's even a market for your product at all. If your game turns out to be a big hit, great; you've already hit more than two-thirds of the market and you can use your windfall to fund the sequel, and then start weighing the benefits of porting it versus spending that money to make DLC or whatever. If your game turns out to be a flop, hey, at least it only costs you $10M to determine that instead of $15M.

Lastly, your claim that the PS4 and Bone are "mostly similar" is simply false. Even if we assume them to be mostly code compatible — and again, they really aren't — the crippled memory architecture on the Bone brings its own set of design limitations simply not present on the dominant platform.
 
Not likely Nadella would do anything other than give his new strategy its fair shot.

Additionally, who would want to buy it when it's deeply integrated with Windows 10 and Azure?

I think there would be a lot of interest in Xbox for companies that are kinda thin on software and IP like Lenovo or Samsung. But only if they could buy a "clear box" that gives them deep knowledge of everything MS is doing with Xbox.
But you make a great point. How on earth could Nadella ever justify selling a entity that gives the potential buyer insight into W10, account synchronisation,Kinect, XBL, OneDrive, Skype, Azure, content delivery, CRM, billing and other xbox related business processes?
 

Felessan

Member
PC gaming market in terms of revenue has grown. Globally it has surpassed revenue from consoles and is projected to continue growing.
General PC market are on decline for several years that caps future prospects for PC gaming. Second - PC gaming expands in social and non-demanding multiplayer areas, clearly target devices that are not suitable to current console-level performance, typical AAA console gaming on PC is nowhere near console levels, it's still small and enthusiast market. You can see it from publishers report. Konami has PC at 10%, Ubisoft at 11%, and this number already include their f2p initiatives, not just AAA gaming.
Mobile will overtook both consoles and PC, but it's a different kind of gaming that we got used to see on consoles with its high production vale, performance demanding 60$ AAA titles.

What of that requires a closed, proprietary system? High-performance gaming can be achieved on even small-form PCs, so we don't need Microsoft and Sony investing billions in R&D for proprietary tech to keep that moving forward.
High performance PC gaming is even smaller than console gaming market. And it sold strictly for-profit with significant margin, so it makes it out of gaming mass-market.
 

Death2494

Member
2. To the people that think sony has a 10 million unit lead, people shouldn't forget that the xbone didn't launch in nearly as many regions as PS4 on launch. I think its closer to a 6 or 7 million lead at this point.

Xbox One was available @ $400 (cheapest) in only 13 markets in 2014

Xbox consoles shipped 2M (1.2M Ones + 800k 360s)

Xbox One is available @ $350 (now 42 markets) + Xbox 360 shipped only 1.6M combined 2015 (same quarter)

Conclusion: Xbox One sold less in more market and at a cheaper price point in 2015 when compared to 2014

People are claiming Titanfall, but are ignoring the $50 price difference and bundles.
Titanfall might have enticed hardcore gamers but the price cut and bundle attract a more average consumer.

Even if you believe the 13M shipped number, Sony confirmed 20.2M sold-through as of March 1st, 2015. This means that shipped is definitely higher. 8M would be minimum. Again that is if you believe the 13M shipped number.

http://www.polygon.com/2015/3/3/8145025/ps4-sales-20-2-million-units

Polygon said:
The figure is true as of March 1, and applies to units sold through to consumers. The system "continues to demonstrate the fastest and strongest growth in PlayStation hardware history," said Sony in a press release today.

banned site Xbox One said:
12 million
 
Xbox One was available @ $400 (cheapest) in only 13 markets in 2014

Xbox consoles shipped 2M (1.2M Ones + 800k 360s)

Xbox One is available @ $350 (now 42 markets) + Xbox 360 shipped only 1.6M combined 2015 (same quarter)

People are claiming Titanfall, but are ignoring the $50 price difference and bundles.
Titanfall might have enticed hardcore gamers but the price cut and bundle attract a more average consumer.

Even if you believe the 13M shipped number, Sony confirmed 20.2M sold-through. This means that shipped is definitely higher. 8M would be minimum. Again that is if you believe the 13M shipped number.

I am certain that our respected Zhu will not hesitate to chime in to correct me, but should not the difference in terms of shippeds figure be around 10 million unites to Sony's advantage right now? Sony announced 20 millions in early January...Surely they must be around 22 millions sold in right now, and north of 23 millions provided to retailers?
 

Death2494

Member
I am certain that our respected Zhu will not hesitate to chime in to correct me, but should not the difference in terms of shippeds figure be around 10 million unites to Sony's advantage right now? Sony announced 20 millions in early January...Surely they must be around 22 millions sold in right now, and north of 23 millions provided to retailers?
Yes, I was elaborating on the fact that even if he compared Xbox One's shipped to PS4's sold-to-consumer, the difference is still more than 7 million. So his estimate of 6 million could definitely be ruled out.

You are correct shipments would definitely put it over 10 million.
 
Jumping into this thread now makes it really hard to follow exactly where the discussion went.

IMO
1. I think the people that think the xbox business is doing poorly or MS will/should sell it off aren't looking at the big picture. You don't have to be in first to make the most money or even turn a profit. MS realized that after the first xbox. sales may be down YOY but there's been a distinct lack of titles to drive that. Even still they are doing better sales wise then the 360 at the same point of it's life, and they won't have a billion dollar write off this time around.
2. To the people that think sony has a 10 million unit lead, people shouldn't forget that the xbone didn't launch in nearly as many regions as PS4 on launch. I think its closer to a 6 or 7 million lead at this point.
3. I also think sony can't physically make the PS4 much smaller this early. They already sacrificed space to make the current console small. MS went the other route making it larger but quieter. I think MS has some room to make the system smaller if they chose to do that.

Your point makes no sense at all. The first sentence serves as an argument as to why the PS4 has built such a lead; which would be fine and dandy, util you read sentence two, where you reject the statement you were initially trying to mitigate...Shit! Now I am the one making no sense at all... :-(
 
Star.jpg


Star of Azkarranth a amulet that has a 0.16% drop chance in D3 ROS chances of actually getting a good one are probably something like 0000.10%. In 100s of hours of playing seasons i have found exactly 1 and it was rubbish.

To put it into Kadala shards, it would be on average 960.000 shards before this drops.
960,000 shards? Man, the news keeps getting worse for Microsoft.
 
Star.jpg


Star of Azkarranth a amulet that has a 0.16% drop chance in D3 ROS chances of actually getting a good one are probably something like 0000.10%. In 100s of hours of playing seasons i have found exactly 1 and it was rubbish.

To put it into Kadala shards, it would be on average 960.000 shards before this drops.

Wrong thread?
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
I am certain that our respected Zhu will not hesitate to chime in to correct me, but should not the difference in terms of shippeds figure be around 10 million unites to Sony's advantage right now? Sony announced 20 millions in early January...Surely they must be around 22 millions sold in right now, and north of 23 millions provided to retailers?

10 mil sell in difference sounds about right. Of course we'll have a somewhat more accurate idea come the end of this week when Sony tell us what they shipped this quarter.

The gap will continue to grow.
 

Marlenus

Member
General PC market are on decline for several years that caps future prospects for PC gaming.

If you are talking hardware that is partly due to the fact nothing has been driving adoption. Outside of the 4k or VR niches there has not been anything that really requires top line hardware for a long while now and combined with the stagnation of GPU technology due to the difficulty of node shrinks performance gains have not been all that great either.

I think you will see an increase in gaming related hardware once DX12 and 14nm are released. Just like after a long console generation there is a lot of demand for new GPU technologies that offer a substantial performance boost over their predecesors. If you think the Titan X gains are big just wait until the 14nm stuff comes out. I am expecting something in the region of 100% gains thanks to the node shrink, perhaps more as it is effectively 2 steps in one as 20nm was skipped. If those gains are realised then the first to market is going to get a huge bump in sales and it will drive adoption.

As far as the overall PC market goes, the issue is that 4 year old i5's are more than good enough for desktop apps in a business environment so there has been very little reason to upgrade to new hardware.

EDIT: Come to think of it by the time GPUs hit 14nm the cost of entry into the 4k and VR space will have come down too so that will also drive adoption.
 

Conduit

Banned
10 mil sell in difference sounds about right. Of course we'll have a somewhat more accurate idea come the end of this week when Sony tell us what they shipped this quarter.

The gap will continue to grow.

Well, my guess is Sony shipped around 4 mil. PS3's and PS4's. :D
 

Felessan

Member
If you are talking hardware that is partly due to the fact nothing has been driving adoption. Outside of the 4k or VR niches there has not been anything that really requires top line hardware for a long while now and combined with the stagnation of GPU technology due to the difficulty of node shrinks performance gains have not been all that great either.
I am talking about general PC sales, not a gaming PC sales. And in general PC sales there is a clear trend to go from desktop power-hungry PC (those sales dropping like a rock) to small and light notebook to hybrids and tablets that can't really provide enough power to support AAA gaming.
This is what Gartner says about PC sales -
http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3026217
Worldwide PC shipments totaled 71.7 million units in the first quarter of 2015, a 5.2 percent decline from the first quarter of 2014, according to preliminary results by Gartner, Inc.
"The PC industry received a boost in 2014 as many companies replaced their PCs due to the end of Windows XP support, but that replacement cycle faded in the first quarter of 2015," said Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner. "However, this decline is not necessarily a sign of sluggish overall PC sales long term. Mobile PCs, including notebooks, hybrid and Windows tablets, grew compared with a year ago. The first quarter results support our projection of a moderate decline of PC shipments in 2015, which will lead to a slow, consistent growth stage for the next five years.
"Desk-based PC shipments declined rapidly, with business desk-based PCs being impacted the most. Mobile PCs are being driven by a separate underlying replacement cycle, which led mobile growth in the first quarter. PC replacements will be driven by thin and light notebooks with tablet functionality. Our early study suggests strong growth of hybrid notebooks, especially in mature markets, in 1Q15."

If those gains are realised then the first to market is going to get a huge bump in sales and it will drive adoption.
It may be big in the dedicated PC gaming crowd, but it will have very small impact on overall PC sales.

As far as the overall PC market goes, the issue is that 4 year old i5's are more than good enough for desktop apps in a business environment so there has been very little reason to upgrade to new hardware.
There is a reason - you need a PC that can run actual version of Windows. Companies do not work on non-supported versions so they are replacing their PC regulary. And it was in this way for many years.
Corporate part do as they usually did (except they are switching to notebooks), the problem that consumer part is one step ahead - they switched their desktops to notebook some time ago and now they are often switching notebooks to tablets.
 

ps3ud0

Member
Do we have details regards their manufacturing levels? I know they reduced them early 2014 but obviously it takes time, dependent on the contract, how quickly that comes into effect.

Wouldnt be surprised that considering price cuts arent really helping that they could be positioning themselves for an early 'slim' SKU if they dont have lots of the original SKU sitting somewhere. I can see that giving them a bigger boost than a(nother) price drop...

ps3ud0 8)
 
10 mil sell in difference sounds about right. Of course we'll have a somewhat more accurate idea come the end of this week when Sony tell us what they shipped this quarter.

The gap will continue to grow.

I just realized that the number I cam up with is rather conservative. With 20.2 millions up to January the 4th, they must be at around 23 million sold in today. Would not that make their shipment in the vicinity of 24-25 millions?
 
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