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New Yorker: Can This Dem Win GA6? (Come for the article, stay for a mayor's racism)

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http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/can-this-democrat-win-the-georgia-sixth

Last Saturday, Jon Ossoff, a tall, skinny, thirty-year-old candidate for the U.S. Congress with Kennedy-ish features and a deliberate, Obama-like manner of speaking, was scheduled to knock on doors in Roswell, a city in Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District. Over the past three decades, the district has been represented by Newt Gingrich, current Georgia Senator Johnny Isakson, and Tom Price, the new Secretary of Health and Human Services. Price’s appointment to the Cabinet left the seat empty, and a special election to fill it will be held on April 18th. The Sixth encompasses many of Atlanta’s wealthy and mostly white northern suburbs, and has long been considered a Republican lock; in 2012, Mitt Romney beat Barack Obama by twenty-four points in the district. But in the most recent election Donald Trump edged Hillary Clinton by just a single point here. Ossoff thinks he can turn the sixth blue, and claim the first congressional win against Trump on the G.O.P.’s own turf.

Jere Wood, the longtime Republican mayor of Roswell, disagrees. “This isn’t a youth vote up here,” he told me at his office, when I asked him about the makeup of the Sixth. “This is a mature voter base. If someone is going down the list, they’re gonna vote for somebody who is familiar.” He paused. “If you just say ‘Ossoff,’ some folks are gonna think, ‘Is he Muslim? Is he Lebanese? Is he Indian?’ It’s an ethnic-sounding name, even though he may be a white guy, from Scotland or wherever.”

Ossoff is indeed a white guy, though he is not from Scotland. His father is a Jew of Russian-Lithuanian descent who owns a specialist publishing company, and his mother is an Australian immigrant and management consultant who co-founded a nonprofit aimed at electing women—of either party—to political office in Georgia. “Our name was probably truncated at Ellis Island,” Ossoff told me. “From something like Ossoffsky.”

In high school, Ossoff interned with the congressman and civil-rights icon John Lewis, whose memoir, “Walking With the Wind,” deepened his interest in politics and social justice. Ossoff considers Lewis his mentor, and it was Lewis, he said, who “told me that if any Democrat can win the Sixth, you can.” Lewis’s subsequent endorsement helped—as did online support from celebrities such as Debra Messing and George Takei. Ossoff has raised nearly two million dollars since declaring his candidacy, in early January. Roughly half of that sum has come from the efforts of liberal Web site the Daily Kos, which explains its support of Ossoff this way: “Flipping this seat from red to blue would send shockwaves through Congress—and replacing Trump’s anti-Obamacare point man with a Democrat would be an amazing little cherry on top.”

Earlier this week, a G.O.P. super pac made an ad buy of more than a million dollars for an anti-Ossoff spot that features footage of Ossoff pretending to be Han Solo, from “Star Wars,” while attending Georgetown’s School of Foreign Service. “Just another college kid dressing up with his drinking buddies,” a disappointed-sounding narrator says, reminding wary voters of Ossoff’s youth. “That I’m being attacked means this race is winnable,” Ossoff told me. “They know they might lose this seat.” Ossoff’s other college activities included working for the Democratic congressman Hank Johnson, who represents Georgia’s Fourth District. Ossoff eventually became Johnson’s deputy communications chief, campaign manager, and military legislative assistant. Then, after receiving a master’s degree from the London School of Economics, he joined a firm specializing in anti-corruption investigations around the world. He’s now the C.E.O. of Insight TWI, which produces documentaries about global issues. But he spends most of this time, these days, on the campaign.

The conservative commentator Erick Erickson, who lives in Macon, Georgia, has been watching the race closely. “The candidates who are probably going to do the best are the ones who run on an accountability platform,” he told me. “The ones who say ‘I was with Trump’ probably aren’t going to do as well.” Erickson doesn’t think the Democrats have much of a chance. “I know they’ve poured a lot of money in and may be able to get Jon into a runoff, but this is a very Republican district,” he said. “I think Democrats have misread the Trump election. This district went for Rubio, sizably, in the primary,” he noted, suggesting that its constituents favor establishment Republicans, like many of those in the current race. “And since it’s such a short race, and it’s all about name recognition, I think Karen Handel probably has the advantage over everyone else.” The Kennesaw State University political scientist Kerwin Swint recently told the Atlanta Journal and Constitution that the “numbers just aren’t there yet” for the Democrats.

Were Ossoff to win, it would be the first time a Georgia congressional seat has flipped in a special election since 1872. DuBose Porter, the chairman of the Democratic Party of Georgia, can’t endorse Ossoff by name with other Democrats still in the race, but his language strongly suggests that he favors the thirty-year-old. “We have a number of candidates, but I think it will take a young, energetic visionary candidate to succeed,” he told me. “This is a national race,” he added. “There will be resources coming from all over the country.”

Ossoff’s campaign says that some six thousand volunteers have pledged their support for him so far. Two hundred or so showed up in Roswell to canvas on Saturday. There was a lawyer draped in an American flag; a seventeen-year-old girl who had been involved in the Clinton campaign; a twelve-year-old boy who said “Ossoff seems cool”; and three of Ossoff’s friends from Paideia, who will be filming his campaign over the next two months. They talked among themselves about immigrant rights, L.G.B.T.Q. rights, and their antipathy for Donald Trump, a feeling that Ossoff shares—but has muffled, as he wages a “respectful campaign dedicated to local issues before national politics,” as he put it.

Small groups gathered around Ossoff’s thirty-year-old campaign manager, Keenan Pontoni, and I heard someone whisper, “He reminds me of David Axelrod!” Pontoni went over door-knocking protocol: “Things to know about Jon that I hope you can bring up at the doors, and are mentioned on the script: First, that he was a national-security expert and aide with top-secret clearance, fighting to stop corruption and cut waste. He did that several times as a congressional aide. Second, that he’s a business owner, who’s had to balance budgets and make payroll. Third, and probably most importantly, he has, throughout the world, exposed corruption and saved lives against isis; he has exposed sex trafficking; he has done amazing things through his investigative career. Right now, more than ever, we need somebody who knows how to fight corruption in Washington.”

Rolling up his sleeves, Ossoff went door to door with two staffers and a cameraman, carrying a tin of Ice Breakers mints in his pocket. We were in Pine Valley Estates, a leafy Roswell neighborhood with big yards and barking dogs. The first door opened and an eager man in his thirties responded to Ossoff’s polite entreaty—“Hi, I’m running for Congress and would appreciate your vote”—with a welcome message: “Hey, screw Donald Trump, dude. I’m voting for you!” Ossoff hadn’t even had time to explain his progressive positions on women’s issues and health care, or his moderate stances on jobs and security. “That was easy,” he said. But, at the dozen or so houses that Ossoff tried over the next half hour, most residents simply didn’t answer. He put fliers in their doors and headed back to the office park, to find out how his beaming canvassers had fared
 

MrNelson

Banned
I really hope he wins, but it wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't. This is a city full of people that refuse to extend the MARTA rail line here because they're afraid that "brown people from the south side will use it to come break into our houses". It's a shame I'm moving, otherwise I would totally vote for him.
 

FrankCanada97

Roughly the size of a baaaaaarge
I really hope he wins, but it wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't. This is a city full of people that refuse to extend the MARTA rail line here because they're afraid that "brown people from the south side will use it to come break into our houses". It's a shame I'm moving, otherwise I would totally vote for him.

What the hell? That's NIMBYism on a whole different level.
 

wandering

Banned
I really hope he wins, but it wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't. This is a city full of people that refuse to extend the MARTA rail line here because they're afraid that "brown people from the south side will use it to come break into our houses". It's a shame I'm moving, otherwise I would totally vote for him.

Confused-Jacksonville-Jaguars-fan-in-stands.gif
 

xfactor99

Member
I mean GA-6 has historically been one of those reliably Republican rich white people suburbs , but in the last 3 elections it's gone:

2008: 59% McCain, 40.1% Obama
2012: 60.8% Romney 37.5% Obama
2016: 48.3% Trump, 46.8% Clinton

That's a pretty big swing. Democrats have to at least try to contest this and see if a vigilant anti-Trump message resonates with suburban Sun Belt voters. If not, they will have big problems trying to win the House in 2018.

By the way, if any of you are interested in knowing how your district voted in 2016, click here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VfkHtzBTP5gf4jAu8tcVQgsBJ1IDvXEHjuMqYlOgYbA/edit#gid=0
 
Been meaning to donate to Ossoff, hopefully he can make it closer to 3 million the closer we get to the election. Also I Googled Jere Wood. Yep, that's a Republican alright.
 
If we picked this district up it would be a huge morale booster and potentially deter GOP congressmen from passing anything big. Price still won reelection by like 20 points even while Clinton made up a lot of ground, so the other suburban congressmen might be more worried about things like ACA repeal if a district like theirs flips.
 

MarionCB

Member
So according to the Mayor, people vote there by turning up, looking at the ballot and just voting for the most white-sounding name on the list because they're all old racists that won't change. Nice. Fortunately, he appears to be wrong going by the progression of voting results.
 

Cat Party

Member
I like how the mayor says that these are "mature" voters while, in the same breath, acknowledges that they vote based on whether a name sounds white.
 

kirblar

Member
I mean GA-6 has historically been one of those reliably Republican rich white people suburbs , but in the last 3 elections it's gone:

2008: 59% McCain, 40.1% Obama
2012: 60.8% Romney 37.5% Obama
2016: 48.3% Trump, 46.8% Clinton

That's a pretty big swing. Democrats have to at least try to contest this and see if a vigilant anti-Trump message resonates with suburban Sun Belt voters. If not, they will have big problems trying to win the House in 2018.

By the way, if any of you are interested in knowing how your district voted in 2016, click here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VfkHtzBTP5gf4jAu8tcVQgsBJ1IDvXEHjuMqYlOgYbA/edit#gid=0
Those rich urban/suburban republican districts look like they're probably the future of the party.
 
I mean GA-6 has historically been one of those reliably Republican rich white people suburbs , but in the last 3 elections it's gone:

2008: 59% McCain, 40.1% Obama
2012: 60.8% Romney 37.5% Obama
2016: 48.3% Trump, 46.8% Clinton

That's a pretty big swing. Democrats have to at least try to contest this and see if a vigilant anti-Trump message resonates with suburban Sun Belt voters. If not, they will have big problems trying to win the House in 2018.

By the way, if any of you are interested in knowing how your district voted in 2016, click here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VfkHtzBTP5gf4jAu8tcVQgsBJ1IDvXEHjuMqYlOgYbA/edit#gid=0
Whoa, I'm in 7th district, had no idea it went that high for Clinton, I thought for sure it was much lower. Here I thought I was all alone out here.

As for MARTA, what's weird is I guess I live in a bubble but I've never heard anyone state they don't want MARTA. Traffic is a nightmare I really wish it would come up here.
 

xfactor99

Member
So according to the Mayor, people vote there by turning up, looking at the ballot and just voting for the most white-sounding name on the list because they're all old racists that won't change. Nice. Fortunately, he appears to be wrong going by the progression of voting results.

Unfortunately there seems to be some element of truth to that notion. In Illinois during the Republican primaries people didn't vote for Trump or Cruz directly, they voted for delegates who supported each candidate. Those delegates with ethnic names got significantly lower shares of the vote than people with white-sounding names.

"Examining within-presidential candidate variation in delegate vote totals in primaries from 2000–2016, we estimate that about 10 percent of voters do not vote for their preferred presidential candidate's delegates who have names that indicate the delegates are nonwhite, indicating that a considerable share of voters act upon racially-discriminatory tastes."

https://people.stanford.edu/dbroock...n_illinois_primary_taste_discrimination_0.pdf
 
Whoa, I'm in 7th district, had no idea it went that high for Clinton, I thought for sure it was much lower. Here I thought I was all alone out here.

As for MARTA, what's weird is I guess I live in a bubble but I've never heard anyone state they don't want MARTA. Traffic is a nightmare I really wish it would come up here.

Hillary won Cobb county. I think there's a decent chance Ossoff could win.
 

xfactor99

Member
Those rich urban/suburban republican districts look like they're probably the future of the party.

Some of these suburban Sun Belt districts experienced crazy swings towards the Democrats in 2016. My main concern is that voters in these areas are naturally inclined to really care about low taxes, and that they could swing back heavily towards the Republicans if they nominate someone like Marco Rubio.

Though I suppose someone like Rubio would do badly in the Rust Belt. Tradeoffs to everything.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orange_County,_California#Politics
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobb_County,_Georgia#Government_and_elections
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harris_County,_Texas#Government_and_politics
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gwinnett_County,_Georgia#Government_and_politics
 

FLEABttn

Banned
I really hope he wins, but it wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't. This is a city full of people that refuse to extend the MARTA rail line here because they're afraid that "brown people from the south side will use it to come break into our houses". It's a shame I'm moving, otherwise I would totally vote for him.


This is a sadly common and racist mentality in white suburbs which stand to potentially get subway extensions. I heard that first hand in the 90s in over the BART extension to Dublin/Pleasanton, and I know that people said the same thing about the Silver Line maybe going to Leesburg for the Metro.
 
This is a sadly common and racist mentality in white suburbs which stand to potentially get subway extensions. I heard that first hand in the 90s in over the BART extension to Dublin/Pleasanton, and I know that people said the same thing about the Silver Line maybe going to Leesburg for the Metro.

Same issue with the Pink Line going through Beverly Hills.
 

Boney

Banned
I mean GA-6 has historically been one of those reliably Republican rich white people suburbs , but in the last 3 elections it's gone:

2008: 59% McCain, 40.1% Obama
2012: 60.8% Romney 37.5% Obama
2016: 48.3% Trump, 46.8% Clinton

That's a pretty big swing. Democrats have to at least try to contest this and see if a vigilant anti-Trump message resonates with suburban Sun Belt voters. If not, they will have big problems trying to win the House in 2018.

By the way, if any of you are interested in knowing how your district voted in 2016, click here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VfkHtzBTP5gf4jAu8tcVQgsBJ1IDvXEHjuMqYlOgYbA/edit#gid=0
If Trump is the outlier there's no reason a conservative republican won't hold the office. There seems to be a lot of activity on the Ossoff side so that's good, at the end of the day, people need to be excited to vote for someone. Best of luck to him.
 

kirblar

Member
As messed up as it may sound, the Dems need to target anyone with an education...
One thing we know from California's history in the '90s- this is a group that will tolerate dog-whistle racism (as well as generic high income NIMBYism) But they do not like explicit racism whatsoever. The Cali GOP went full Trump in the '90s and it completely backfired on them long-term.

Pew's got a real interesting survey turnaround showing up in their data that's probably related to this https://t.co/TaEoV15R1r

 
Some of these suburban Sun Belt districts experienced crazy swings towards the Democrats in 2016. My main concern is that voters in these areas are naturally inclined to really care about low taxes, and that they could swing back heavily towards the Republicans if they nominate someone like Marco Rubio.

Though I suppose someone like Rubio would do badly in the Rust Belt. Tradeoffs to everything.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orange_County,_California#Politics
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobb_County,_Georgia#Government_and_elections
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harris_County,_Texas#Government_and_politics
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gwinnett_County,_Georgia#Government_and_politics

Price won 61% in 2016 in the district against a no name challenger. The demos are (from 2010):

Race 72.4% White, 13.4% Black, 9.3% Asian, 0.2% Native American

Ethnicity 11.8% Hispanic

Unemployment 8.5%

Median household income $72,832

High school graduation rate 93%

College graduation rate 56.3%

It's probably less white now.

So Ossoff would probably need high Black, Asian and Hispanic turn out (hard in a special election), low non college-educated white turn out (easier in a special election).

Let's say the turn out is 7% black, 7% Asian, 3% Hispanic non-White. He'll probably get 6%, 5%, 2% of respectively. 13%. He still needs 37% of the vote. Let's be gracious and give him 40% of the white vote. That's probably worse than Hillary did. That would be 29%. You'd get him to 43%, which is much higher than the no name got in 2016 (38%), but still not all the way. And it'll be a two-way race.

But those are 2010 numbers. Let's say the district has gotten more diverse (it has). Let's say it's...

68% White, 14% Black, 11% Asian, .3% Native American, 13.5% Hispanic (and 7% Hispanic non-White). So let's give him, say, 8%, 8%, .2%, 5% respectively. That's 21.5%. And then let's give him 42% of the white vote. 50.06%.

That would do it.
 

Viewt

Member
I really hope he wins, but it wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't. This is a city full of people that refuse to extend the MARTA rail line here because they're afraid that "brown people from the south side will use it to come break into our houses". It's a shame I'm moving, otherwise I would totally vote for him.

Yup.

Not-So-Fun-And-Adctually-Depressing-Fact: This is also the reason Chicago's Yellow Line won't spread further into Skokie, strengthening the connection between the the suburb and the city and likely skyrocketing the property in value. They just don't want "easy access" from so-called "undesirables."
 
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