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[iamaustrian]

So they're lowering all these fiscal year forecasts with only 2 months left in the fiscal year? That seems odd.

Anyways overall, a lot of continued bad news for Nintendo. At least they've righted 3DS, although western sales arent through the roof yet. Unfortunately Wii has tanked and I have little hopes for Wii U.

yeah, the Wii has clearly tanked

maybe the Wii's low sales are because of the announced Wii U?
just a guess

 

[AniHawk]

I think it all depends on the next xbox. If it's $400+ and in limited supply, then I think a $100 360 will sell like the PS2 did during the PS3's first couple of years on the market(at least in NA/UK) which could give them a chance at overtaking it.

Now if the next xbox doesn't sell well and the price has to be dropped(or launches cheap at $300), then it could kill off 360 sales sooner like the 3DS did to the DS.

i think microsoft would just want to kill the machine outright. they did the same to the original xbox (although that was because they never made money on the thing, i guess).

 

[Neo C.]

Now the Euro on the other hand....

The Euro is fucked up as well, but it shouldn't be a problem in the midterm, because it isn't the world currency. If the EU devalue the Euro too much, it will affect the economy and the citizens too.

Now, if the Euro implodes? Only god knows what will happen...

 

[grimshawish]

Not too surprised tbh - their being squeezed from all sides. I think a major issue here is the Yen - the idea of making a profit on 3DS hardware is laughable (plus they cut below the profitable mark anyway - if your emergency cutting, you go as far as possible)

3DS will be fine over time.
Loss from Wii will be less this year as they kill it off.

Big question over, will WiiU be the next big system?


Nintendo as a games producer is in a much much better position than say Sony (Microsoft has worked its way up now, so its pretty strong, plus ignoring the fact their connected to PC Gaming is naive, so I'd say their the growing dominant) but as a 'company' they are so very reliant on this one industry - and that is a danger for them

Theres a problem with global demand - only natural games producers will be affected.
Nintendo's losses are more about changing their internal company to be profitable to the market their currently selling to.

When things change - companies make losses. 3DS will be a long running piece of hardware - will WiiU? Who knows.
They'll survive and adapt. As usual.

@discocaine - Their warchest is exactly for this situation. Not a mystery war where their selling loads of products against a strong Sony - just to pip them over the top. Its to make up drops in demand or failed products. They used it to save 3DS, and continue running under weak demand.

 

[rezuth]

Tim Cook: Laughs

But seriously, they need to infuse a lot of faith for the WiiU

 

[Nirolak]

You know, looking over this again, the 2 million 3DS hardware drop was less than I expected

However, lowering software by 24 million is what really sticks out to me.

I'm going to guess that this isn't a first party sales disappointment for the most part (outside of maybe lowering on Nintendogs and Kid Icarus), but rather that they expected third party software to do a lot better.

 

[Mpl90]

You know, looking over this again, the 2 million 3DS hardware drop was less than I expected

However, lowering software by 24 million is what really sticks out to me.

I'm going to guess that this isn't a first party sales disappointment for the most part (outside of maybe lowering on Nintendogs and Kid Icarus), but rather that they expected third party software to do a lot better.

Or also that they expected to launch some games during Q1, specifically Luigi's Mansion and Animal Crossing.

P.S. They're lowering from the last forecast, which was 50, not 62.

 

[Nirolak]

Or also that they expected to launch some games during Q1, specifically Luigi's Mansion and Animal Crossing.

P.S. They're lowering from the last forecast, which was 50, not 62.

Oh I see, those were the original in the OP. Thanks.

 

[DCharlie]

However, lowering software by 24 million is what really sticks out to me.

I'm going to guess that this isn't a first party sales disappointment for the most part (outside of maybe lowering on Nintendogs and Kid Icarus), but rather that they expected third party software to do a lot better.

yeah, agreed on this.

I think someone else mentioned it - even with the extra 2m h/w sales those software sales targets look -way- too aggressive (for the ORIGINAL forcast)

 

[pieatorium]

yeah, the Wii has clearly tanked

maybe the Wii's low sales are because of the announced Wii U?
just a guess

Wii tanked well before Wiiu announcement (june?) 2011, Non holiday quaters were down to pretty significantly since mid 2010

 

[Nirolak]

yeah, agreed on this.

I think someone else mentioned it - even with the extra 2m h/w sales those software sales targets look -way- too aggressive (for the ORIGINAL forcast)

I think they were expecting stuff like Pets and Imagine to not implode.

Those series totaled over 20 million in their prime.

This latest drop to me seems more notable though because it's after they had established that, and I don't think Animal Crossing and Luigi's Mansion were expected to sell a huge chunk of that.

 

[Gianni Merryman]

I reckon 3DS software sales are quite good overall, especially since the most of it comes supposedly from Mario kart 7 + SM3dLand, not many big sellers around except from Ocarina of time and Street fighter, as far as I recall.

 

[Miles X]

i think microsoft would just want to kill the machine outright. they did the same to the original xbox (although that was because they never made money on the thing, i guess).

I don't think we can take from the Original Xbox situation, they were practically forced to shut down production were they not? Something to do with Nvidia, not entirely sure.

The nextbox will be at/above $400 I should think, meaning there is plenty of room for a lower priced console for a couple of years.

On the topic of overtaking, will be interesting to see how DS holds up now and if it has enough juice left in it to overtake the PS2, the gap was 4.5m in PS2's favour last Q, don't think PS2 did above 2m this Q so should drop.

 

[Nirolak]

I reckon 3DS software sales are quite good overall, especially since the most of it comes supposedly from Mario kart 7 + SM3dLand, not many big sellers around except from Ocarina of time and Street fighter, as far as I recall.

I feel that Nintendo's titles as a whole have clearly done well.

It's just that I don't think we want third parties thinking their software doesn't do well, because well, we can look at the last few times that happened.

In Japan they're clearly having few issues with software for either group though (relative to the notability and volume of the releases, as opposed to raw numbers), so that is very positive for them on that front.

 

[AniHawk]

On the topic of overtaking, will be interesting to see how DS holds up now and if it has enough juice left in it to overtake the PS2, the gap was 4.5m in PS2's favour last Q, don't think PS2 did above 2m this Q so should drop.

won't happen. nintendo will kill the ds the next fiscal year and sony will probably shut the ps2 down too. the ds will wind up about 4-5m behind.

 

[bigtroyjon]

Some Wii unit sales Year on Year(Apr-Dec) by region:
Hardware
Japan (-24.3%)
Amrcas(-42.8%)
Europe(-26.3%)

Software
Japan (-18.1%)
Amrcas(-47.4%)
Europe(-34.1%)

 

[spwolf]

so much for printing money gifs, eh?

 

[JJConrad]

I reckon 3DS software sales are quite good overall, especially since the most of it comes supposedly from Mario kart 7 + SM3dLand, not many big sellers around except from Ocarina of time and Street fighter, as far as I recall.

In comparison to the DS, the 3DS software is struggling the most in Japan. The DS shipped 21.52 million pieces of software in it first full fiscal year, the 3DS is currently at 8.10 million after 3 quarters. That alone accounts for the reduction in their software prediction. But Japan is also the region were the 3DS' outlook is the least in doubt, IMO.

North America has been strong on hardware, but weak on software. And "Other" has adopted both hardware and software very well.

 

[Jokeropia]

so much for printing money gifs, eh?

To nitpick, they have been "printing money" since the 3DS picked up last quarter.

On the topic of overtaking, will be interesting to see how DS holds up now and if it has enough juice left in it to overtake the PS2, the gap was 4.5m in PS2's favour last Q, don't think PS2 did above 2m this Q so should drop.

won't happen. nintendo will kill the ds the next fiscal year and sony will probably shut the ps2 down too. the ds will wind up about 4-5m behind.

The problem is that I don't think we even have a concrete number on the PS2. By Sony PR, there's 150m as of January 31 2011, and they have shipped 3.8 million from January 1 2011 to September 30 2011. We need to know how many of the 1.2 million shipped from January 1 to March 31 that were shipped during January and thus included in the 150m PR. Assuming even shipments of 400k in all three months gives us an LTD of 153.4 million, but I'm not sure it's an assumption you can make.

 

[RamzaIsCool]

What the hell happened with the DS? How did it manage to drop that quickly. I don't think even Nintendo expected this seeing the ajustment.

 

[AniHawk]

What the hell happened with the DS? How did it manage to drop that quickly. I don't think even Nintendo expected this seeing the ajustment.

i think it was killed to help save the 3ds.

 

[DarkMehm]

To nitpick, they have been "printing money" since the 3DS picked up last quarter.

The problem is that I don't think we even have a concrete number on the PS2. By Sony PR, there's 150m as of January 31 2011, and they have shipped 3.8 million from January 1 2011 to September 30 2011. We need to know how many of the 1.2 million shipped from January 1 to March 31 that were shipped during January and thus included in the 150m PR. Assuming even shipments of 400k in all three months gives us an LTD of 153.4 million, but I'm not sure it's an assumption you can make.

We have concrete numbers. By various Sony PRs (numbers as of end of an quarter, so it's trackable). PS2 is at 153,5 as of September 30th 2011. Road can confirm this too.

 

[Chittagong]

now where are those "It Eats Money" gifs with Iwata when you nee them...?

 

[Jocchan]

They revised 3DS down to 14M, so they still have 2.5M to sell in the last quarter to reach that.
Considering it's traditionally a slow quarter, I think this basically confirms a revised 3DS before FY end.

If anything, this basically confirms there won't be one before FY ends.

So Wii shipped 10.3m in 2011 and 360 shipped 15m?

Wow, role reversal or what

The Wii has been basically dead for a while, when the bulk of notable software releases dried up (of course, with a few exceptions).

i think it was killed to help save the 3ds.

It died for our sins?

 

[Auto_aim1]

What the hell happened with the DS? How did it manage to drop that quickly. I don't think even Nintendo expected this seeing the ajustment.

Momentum transferred over from the DS to the 3DS, and this happened as soon as the 3DS got the price drop. Probably what Nintendo wanted as well.

 

[jump_button]

The way 3DS are selling I'am sure they make it back

 

[m.i.s.]

In comparison to the DS, the 3DS software is struggling the most in Japan. The DS shipped 21.52 million pieces of software in it first full fiscal year, the 3DS is currently at 8.10 million after 3 quarters. That alone accounts for the reduction in their software prediction. But Japan is also the region were the 3DS' outlook is the least in doubt, IMO.

How much of the 3DS software numbers can be attributed to the higher price of games? Would Nintendo have sold more if 3DS games were broadly the same price as DS games?

 

[Leonsito]

Well, it's expected, they went aggressive with the 3ds price and they are in the middle of the transition from their 2 most sold consoles ever to a new ones.

At least they have the money to take risks and eat loses.

 

[RurouniZel]

Wow, having the cut the price of the 3DS so dramatically to get it to sell + yen exchange is killing Nintendo! I've never seen Nintendo ever go through losses, and never this consistantly!

 

[Chris1964]

Hmm, they revised 3DS down and they don't even try with first party releases this quarter. The revision will come next FY and possibly before WiiU.

 

[grimshawish]

Some Wii unit sales Year on Year(Apr-Dec) by region:
Hardware
Japan (-24.3%)
Amrcas(-42.8%)
Europe(-26.3%)

Software
Japan (-18.1%)
Amrcas(-47.4%)
Europe(-34.1%)

Honestly they should bundle the Wii with numerous games in one bundle - point people in the right direction and keep sales up.

But no matter what their in decline across the world (America is painful, and those who want iOS to stay away should realise its probably a big big affect, on top of the economy too - which also means people with iOS/android won't buy a games system with it)

Its all gonna come down to the WiiU, but honestly the cost of launching a new product makes me think Nintnedo could be in the red again for the next financial year.

And thats not even thinking about what happens to the economy.

Likely they'll be strong as a handheld producer, but slightly weak as a console producer.
But tbh Nintendo has done this before, only problem is they expanded with Wii/DS, they'll need to downsize and outsource more, tht much is sure.

 

[Synth_floyd]

Nintendo's biggest competitors are not Sony and Microsoft, they're Apple and Google. The disappointing sales of the 3DS and the DOA launch of the Vita show that the "traditional" handheld market is much, much smaller than before.

 

[plagiarize]

I feel that Nintendo's titles as a whole have clearly done well.

It's just that I don't think we want third parties thinking their software doesn't do well, because well, we can look at the last few times that happened.

In Japan they're clearly having few issues with software for either group though (relative to the notability and volume of the releases, as opposed to raw numbers), so that is very positive for them on that front.

how RE:Revelations does is going to be very interesting for a lot of reasons. if it does well in the west, as a full blown, higher priced, 3rd party title... then things are looking rosy. if it tanks... not so much. i think a lot of studios are paying attention. hopefully the demo and the brand ensure its success.

i know some people want it to fail because of the price point, but studios never seem to get the right message with sales.

 

[MikeE21286]

Man, those software sales across all systems are really hurting Big N

 

[grimshawish]

Nintendo's biggest competitors are not Sony and Microsoft, they're Apple and Google. The disappointing sales of the 3DS and the DOA launch of the Vita show that the "traditional" handheld market is much, much smaller than before.

On the handheld front. However the fact that the 3DS 'was' (was) disappointing and is now doing pretty damn well shows they are certainly competitors - but the market imo continues to grow.

Its the Wii where Nintendo is suffering the most - that means Microsoft and Sony.

 

[creid]

What does -0 even mean?

Don't you know your math? It's negative zero, even less than zero

 

[amrihua]

How much more could the yen appreciate from here?

The yen will more likely start to free fall. Good for exporters not good for Japanese people. If the timing is right the WiiU will launch just as the yen has started to depreciate saving Nintendo and Japan's economy.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Wii fell declined pretty sharply! If it completely falls off a cliff in 2012 (as DS did this year), I wonder if can still pass PS1?

DS vs PS2 seems like it'll be really close in the end too. I wish we had iQue data.

 

[Meier]

Every time they release results, I continue to be baffled by the decision to not release a Wii revision. It could have easily resulted in another 5-10 million units sold and helped re-energize a dead platform. An absolutely critical misstep.

 

[Captain Tuttle]

The yen will more likely start to free fall. Good for exporters not good for Japanese people. If the timing is right the WiiU will launch just as the yen has started to depreciate saving Nintendo and Japan's economy.

Based on what?

 

[Rebel Leader]

Nintendoom?

 

[maabus1999]

Hmmm, so with their new forecasts, Nintendo is basically stating that the 3DS is not the "loss leader" device they were hoping with such a low software attachment rate. I bet they are disappointed big time over there.

On top of that, any investor seeing that would be greatly concerned if a "loss leader" strategy was not working and I would expect pressure on the stock. It will also make the Wii U being built as a "loss leader" even less likely to, so they will have to try a new strategy with that system.

 

[Somnid]

Nintendo's biggest competitors are not Sony and Microsoft, they're Apple and Google. The disappointing sales of the 3DS and the DOA launch of the Vita show that the "traditional" handheld market is much, much smaller than before.

Last quarter's 3DS sales are disappointing?

 

[1-D_FTW]

It's the attach rate that should be alarming for 3DS. And Vita is looking even worse. Checked into sales age recently, and Vita didn't have a single game in the top 20 in Japan.

I think you'll spot the mobile erosion in game sales before hardware sales. People can still justify buying a sub-200 machine if they really like a AAA piece of software, but they're going to be extremely selective about what they're willing to spend 40-50 dollars on. Abysmal attach rates seem to be hinting this is occurring.

 

[maabus1999]

The yen will more likely start to free fall. Good for exporters not good for Japanese people. If the timing is right the WiiU will launch just as the yen has started to depreciate saving Nintendo and Japan's economy.

There is almost nothing outside of heavy, heavy globally coordinated intervention in the Yen that will cause that to happen.

With the U.S. pledging to keep rates just as low as Japan until 2014 and the Euro is expecting massive volatility over the next two years, the Yen will be a very strong currency, if not a straight up Carry Trade which will make it even stronger until it unwinds.

It is not just Nintendo, but Sony, Honda, Toyota, etc... who are going to be having a rough couple years.

 

[maabus1999]

It's the attach rate that should be alarming for 3DS. And Vita is looking even worse. Checked into sales age recently, and Vita didn't have a single game in the top 20 in Japan.

I think you'll spot the mobile erosion in game sales before hardware sales. People can still justify buying a sub-200 machine if they really like a AAA piece of software, but they're going to be extremely selective about what they're willing to spend 40-50 dollars on. Abysmal attach rates seem to be hinting this is occurring.

Smart phones are starting to show their impact more and more I think on software sales. The era of $1 to $5 dollar games is showing its face, especially in a tough globab economy.

 

[Somnid]

It's the attach rate that should be alarming for 3DS. And Vita is looking even worse. Checked into sales age recently, and Vita didn't have a single game in the top 20 in Japan.

I think you'll spot the mobile erosion in game sales before hardware sales. People can still justify buying a sub-200 machine if they really like a AAA piece of software, but they're going to be extremely selective about what they're willing to spend 40-50 dollars on. Abysmal attach rates seem to be hinting this is occurring.

Newer systems typically have low attach rates and they increase with time and as software is added. We also know exactly what those 2.5 games are: Mario, Mario Kart and some combination of Zelda in the West and Monster Hunter in Japan. If there a lot of games that were expected to do a lot better and they didn't then I might play the mobile eating portable games card but given the lineup this is exactly what one would expect.

 

[wrowa]

yeah, agreed on this.

I think someone else mentioned it - even with the extra 2m h/w sales those software sales targets look -way- too aggressive (for the ORIGINAL forcast)

Why do you always quote wrong? It's really annoying. It's not just annoying but it also breaks the user highlighter for the people who use it.

 

[@MUWANdo]

So how long does it usually take for the full transcript of the shareholders' conference to go up?

 

[m.i.s.]

Every time they release results, I continue to be baffled by the decision to not release a Wii revision. It could have easily resulted in another 5-10 million units sold and helped re-energize a dead platform. An absolutely critical misstep.

There was a wii redesign.

There's only so much you can do with an already compact design like the Wii (in turn, from an already compact GCN).