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[Thunder Monkey]

well, they're not exactly absolute -- they are estimates after all. but to say they don't exist or aren't useful is hardly tolerable.




for sure, very disappointing -- hopefully i'm not one of them

You hold your own well enough my friend.

Some people that get into those threads though seem in over their heads. I live and breathe the gaming industry. Sad? Maybe. Of complete interest to me? Most definitely.

 

[Gokurakumaru]

Actually...They have bundled Motorstorm, Heavenly sword, and Resistence over time in bundled. Europe had the Resistence+Motorstorm. Then if Im not mistaken they changed it up to Heavenly sword with Resistence or motorstorm. And NA has thier 80gig with Motorstorm.
They been pretty much giving away free games for the past 6months or so.

PAL regions got games packed for a grand total of 2 or 3 months from the start of August and didn't get a price drop so I don't think this is even in the same ballpark as Wii Sports being packed in with every Wii. The 40GB models come packed with nothing. While it's probably fair to say Wii Sports cannibalises some software sales isn't that entirely the point of attach rates? If you're going to publish a game for a system you want to know how likely people are to buy it and the answer is not very likely on the Wii. And that's why you really have to wonder about stuff like Wii Play making it into attach rate calculations as well.

 

[Fafalada]

That being said, it's not actually selling record amounts of SW, as the PS2 sold more due to much higher HW sales over the same period. But the rate at which 360 sells SW relative to the HW base (that is, the tie ratio) is unparalleled.

Well PS2 attach was lower then even Wii's early on though wasn't it? (In first year anyway).

Given the final tally of PS2 (13+ in US according to you?) says something about 'relevance' of these early ratios (and the supposed "oh they'll stay like that forever", that people are mentioning in this thread).

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Bu bu but weeks of ownership.

Well, it's true. The average US PS3 owner has had their system nearly a month longer than the average US Wii owner.

Tie ratios grow EVERY MONTH.

Consider HW sales in a given month. Say 250k (outside of the holidays). Once your installed base say 8M is out there, it's automatic that the existing HW base buys more SW than the tie ratio.

That is: SW Sales For Month > Tie Ratio * HW Sales for Month.

There are the odd cases where single-month growth is so explosive tie ratio has suffered. GCN in November 2003 comes to mind.

Every single Xbox 360 owner has on average 7 titles. They may have bought that console 2 years ago, or 1 month ago.

As of the end of the November period, the average X360 owner bought theirs a little under a year ago.

 

[Mudhoney]

I get so confused when tie-ratios are presented. The numbers get put out side by side with little extra information as if they are meant to be compared directly. Which brings out the knee-jerk OMG Wii/PS3 software sales <<<<< 360 software sales! (Not to detract from the great 360 software sales weve seen).

Am I understanding this correctly? Is it accurate/fair to put a system that's been out for 2 years next to systems out for only 1? It would seem that is certainly isn't, but so many people are comparing these numbers directly I'm doubting myself.

 

[DDayton]

Attach rate for Wii matches the PS2 when it was at this time in its lifespan.

That's not really a "good" thing, though, if I remember the first year of the PS2 correctly. I remember all sorts of grumbling about a lack of any good games and issues along those lines.

 

[Battersea Power Station]

Considering the amount of third-party port-em-downs and whatnot, I'm kinda glad the Wii is not doing spectacularly when it comes to tie ratios.

I mean, anything the publishers that put out bargain bin titles sell is pure profit anyway, but I'm hoping in time Wii owners will weed out the quality titles.

(sonycowboy, what's with the apostrophe in the thread title? It's scraping my brain.)

 

[D3VI0US]

Considering obvious budget constraints the 360 is already doing amazing for me this year. I have around 15 games and I got the system in Feb. For me that way higher than usual and I didn't go outside of my normal buying habits either. 360's my only next gen console and PS2 had a weak year imo but the games I got are solid. As prices come down my 360 library is only going to grow, and grow faster than my PS3 and Wii libraries respectively. Any system that can provide me with more than a game a month has me excited and 2008 is looking solid too.

DMC4, NG2, Bionic Commando, Soul Calibur 4, Fifa Street, Army of Two, Civilization Revolution, Too Human, Fable 2, Alan Wake, Infinite Undiscovery, Lost Odyssey, Haze, UT3, Battlefield Bad Company, Borderlands, Fallout, GTA IV, SF4, Halo Wars, Quake Wars, Burnout, Mercenaries, Guitar Hero 4, etc.

The 360 is looking to be my go to system this gen.

 

[shintoki]

Considering obvious budget constraints the 360 is already doing amazing for me this year. I have around 15 games and I got the system in Feb. For me that way higher than usual and I didn't go outside of my normal buying habits either. 360's my only next gen console and PS2 had a weak year imo but the games I got are solid. As prices come down my 360 library is only going to grow, and grow faster than my PS3 and Wii libraries respectively. Any system that can provide me with more than a game a month has me excited and 2008 is looking solid too.

DMC4, NG2, Bionic Commando, Soul Calibur 4, Fifa Street, Army of Two, Civilization Revolution, Too Human, Fable 2, Alan Wake, Infinite Undiscovery, Lost Odyssey, Haze, UT3, Battlefield Bad Company, Borderlands, Fallout, GTA IV, SF4, Halo Wars, Quake Wars, Burnout, Mercenaries, Guitar Hero 4, etc.

The 360 is looking to be my go to system this gen.

Funny enough, I have been the same. Yes I bought some on sale and such. Like COD4 for 25 and Senko No Rondo for 9.99.
But at the same time, I never been more tempted to buy new stuff before. I just downloaded my first demo ever on the system(Burnout Paradise) and I am already pretty much sold on it. You are talking to someone who never bought a racer since Cruisin Exotica:lol

 

[Diatribe1974]

It'd be scary to see what their Live Arcade Tie-In ratio was at.

if there's more people like me, then it'd have a 52 game tie in ratio!

 

[Zzoram]

I have like 12 XBLA games, but I've paid for 0. Gogo free XBLA Unplugged Vol.1 + free Joust/Robotron code giveaway + Carcassonne freebie day, Aegis Wing and Yaris.

 

[DDayton]

Thanks to Credit Suisse:
PS3 4.01
Wii 3.86 (not including Wii Sports)
360 6.85

Up to the month of November, life to date, we are at about a 6.4 attach rate.

3.86 <> 6.4

Even with Wii Sports included, the tie ratios are off.

Anyone have any clue why the difference between the two? Nintendo hasn't outright lied about stuff like this before (as far as I can recall), so I'm curious what the difference in factoring sales might be.

 

[Battersea Power Station]

3.86 <> 6.4

Even with Wii Sports included, the tie ratios are off.

Anyone have any clue why the difference between the two? Nintendo hasn't outright lied about stuff like this before (as far as I can recall), so I'm curious what the difference in factoring sales might be.

I don't know what conference this was or what was said but VC might be the culprit.

 

[Scottlarock]

360 is getting screwed, NPD doesn't count Burger King sales.

 

[linsivvi]

I've bought...
37 DS games

...it's a sickness... I haven't even had time to finish half of them.

Around 60 here, but most of them were bought during the time when last gen was getting boring and this gen hasn't taken off yet. Now I'm diverting most of my purchases to consoles.

 

[JMPovoa]

Does trading one broken console for a new one count as one more sale?

 

[Scottlarock]

Does trading one broken console for a new one count as one more sale?

no, the retailer marks it as -1 sale/ +1 inventory and the trade +1 sale/-1 inventory thus = 0

 

[JMPovoa]

no, the retailer marks it as -1 sale/ +1 inventory and the trade +1 sale/-1 inventory thus = 0

Microsoft manufactures a lot them then.

Seriously i was worried that were it not that way, the Xbox360's tie in ratio would be completely borked in its disfavour. It wouldn't make any sense to count those as +1 sale, but who knows.

 

[Slavik81]

3.86 <> 6.4

Even with Wii Sports included, the tie ratios are off.

Anyone have any clue why the difference between the two? Nintendo hasn't outright lied about stuff like this before (as far as I can recall), so I'm curious what the difference in factoring sales might be.

The average Wii owner has owned their console for about 6 months. The average 360 owner has owned their console for a year. (approximately).

Admittedly, sales rates drop the longer someone owns the system, but we're still early enough that it probably has a significant effect.

 

[sonycowboy]

Does trading one broken console for a new one count as one more sale?

Yes. Sort of.

The person that buys the "refurbished" or used system doesn't count as a sale, but the new console does.

 

[JMPovoa]

Yes. Sort of.

The person that buys the "refurbished" or used system doesn't count as a sale, but the new console does.

i'm not sure i understand what you're saying. The way you put it, it almost seems that alot of people that get an Xbox360 (the used ones) aren't actually being counted as a +1 sale. (almost as if there are more consoles in households than what the charts show).

 

[davepoobond]

i'm not sure i understand what you're saying. The way you put it, it almost seems that alot of people that get an Xbox360 (the used ones) aren't actually being counted as a +1 sale. (almost as if there are more consoles in households than what the charts show).

there can't be more consoles than are made.

a used console sale should not count -- if anything the person selling back a console does not count towards subtracting in the first place, so it shouldn't count as another +1, when there is no -1 going on.

 

[Spoit]

That's not really a "good" thing, though, if I remember the first year of the PS2 correctly. I remember all sorts of grumbling about a lack of any good games and issues along those lines.

Are you implying that there isn't grumbling about the lack of games, justified or not, on the Wii? While I agree that Wii sports shouldn't be included in the numbers since it's a pack in, I find it hard to believe that its inclusion doesn't hurt SW sales, especially to the casual market.

 

[Mindlog]

Frankly I don't understand how 360 owners could possibly afford so many games after all the money they are spending on Live Gold.

:rimshot

 

[gregor7777]

Frankly I don't understand how 360 owners could possibly afford so many games after all the money they are spending on Live Gold.

:rimshot

$38 for 13 months is tough.

 

[Phife Dawg]

$38 for 13 months is tough.

I think the rrp for a XBox Live Gold-Card (12 months) is still 60 € (almost $90) here (Germany). Any 360 owner can feel free to correct me though.

Dunno if it's cheaper if you pay for it via cc.

 

[Shepherd]

$38 for 13 months is tough.

I know I have trouble coming up with .96 cents a week.

 

[Parl]

This shows just how much people can slow down buying games.

Despite the fact the average 360 owner has owned their 360 for twice as long as PS3 and Wii owners, it's not quite double the tie-ratio, even with 360's "massive software sales".

It'd be interesting if anybody had any tie-ratio figures for 360 for about this time last year, then a better comparison can be made for when the average 360 owner had their console for ~half the time.

It wouldn't be a precise comparison still though.

 

[TheRipDizz]

This shows just how much people can slow down buying games.

Despite the fact the average 360 owner has owned their 360 for twice as long as PS3 and Wii owners, it's not quite double the tie-ratio, even with 360's "massive software sales".

It'd be interesting if anybody had any tie-ratio figures for 360 for about this time last year, then a better comparison can be made for when the average 360 owner had their console for ~half the time.

It wouldn't be a precise comparison still though.

I believe someone already estimated it to be around 5.4-5.6.

 

[RubberJohnny]

Despite the fact the average 360 owner has owned their 360 for twice as long as PS3 and Wii owners, it's not quite double the tie-ratio, even with 360's "massive software sales".

That's because it's an average. People who bought the system a few months ago may only have a few games and so drag down the average, people who bought it Day 1 - well, check the GAF 360 thread for their catalogue.

 

[Mindlog]

I'm at ~16 atm with no Live titles. Crackdown & Mass Effect DLCs will be my first live purchases.

I thought my wallet would catch a break after the holidays, but...

DMC IV
NG II
SC: Concivtion

right off the top of my head 3 more purchases just in the first half of '08 and there are plenty of others I have my eye on.

 

[Parl]

I believe someone already estimated it to be around 5.4-5.6.

Cool. I expected it to be kinda around there. Wii and PS3 haven't been doing fantastic compared to hardware sales, but 360 was and still is. Although, I'd say much of its software sales comes from the top 10 pretty often, so it looks like 360 software sells and PS3 and Wii games don't.

I mean, PS3 games don't, but people don't buy games for consoles they don't own, but people are buying Wii at a decent pace, despite the the crap third party games. So the tie ratio should increase at a very good pace as better games come out.

 

[Shepherd]

This shows just how much people can slow down buying games.

Despite the fact the average 360 owner has owned their 360 for twice as long as PS3 and Wii owners, it's not quite double the tie-ratio, even with 360's "massive software sales".

It'd be interesting if anybody had any tie-ratio figures for 360 for about this time last year, then a better comparison can be made for when the average 360 owner had their console for ~half the time.

It wouldn't be a precise comparison still though.

You are right it is not double the tie-ratio but it is 5 times the software sales.


360 Hardware LTD 7,870,332 * Tie Ratio 6.85 = 53,911,774

PS3 Hardware LTD 2,446,804 * Tie Ratio 4.01 = 9,811,684

Seems massive to me.

 

[JJConrad]

Counting Wii Sports into the tie-ratio has its place and then it doesn't. If your trying to find out how many games the average Wii owner has purchased then it should not be counted. If you're trying find how many games the average Wii owner owns then most definitely should be counted. If you are doing any type of analysis about potential Wii software sales, forecasts or insights then you need to consider the impact that the pack-in has had on sales.

If you are using these tie-ratios to claim that any system sucks or is lack then you're just a damn fool. Its these pissing contests that ruin sales threads.

 

[CitizenCope]

You are right it is not double the tie-ratio but it is 5 times the software sales.


360 Hardware LTD 7,870,332 * Tie Ratio 6.85 = 53,911,774

PS3 Hardware LTD 2,446,804 * Tie Ratio 4.01 = 9,811,684

Seems massive to me.

HOLY FUCK!!!!! =O

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

By request, my measurements for average system ownership; calculated by assuming that each system purchased in the month is owned for half of that NPD period and all of them thereafter. Of course not perfect, but assuming there aren't a lot of people just tossing their year-old consoles into the trash it should be within a week or so of accurate.

System: Average weeks owned (placing average purchase at this point in time)

X360: 49.3 (December 21, 2006)
PS3: 29.3 (May 10, 2007)
Wii: 25.6 (June 5, 2007)

 

[D.Lo]

By request, my measurements for average system ownership; calculated by assuming that each system purchased in the month is owned for half of that NPD period and all of them thereafter. Of course not perfect, but assuming there aren't a lot of people just tossing their year-old consoles into the trash it should be within a week or so of accurate.

System: Average weeks owned (placing average purchase at this point in time)

X360: 49.3 (December 21, 2006)
PS3: 29.3 (May 10, 2007)
Wii: 25.6 (June 5, 2007)

Thanks dude.

So comparing system ownership to tie ratio, we can calculate each system's game buying rate:

PS3 29.3 weeks/4.01 games = 7.3 week 'buy rate'
Wii 25.6 weeks/3.86 games = 6.6 week 'buy rate'
360 49.3 weeks/6.85 games = 7.2 week 'buy rate'

So the average PS3 owner has bought a game every 7.3 weeks, the average Wii owner every 6.6 weeks, and the average 360 owner every 7.2 weeks.

 

[DDayton]

The average Wii owner has owned their console for about 6 months. The average 360 owner has owned their console for a year. (approximately).

Admittedly, sales rates drop the longer someone owns the system, but we're still early enough that it probably has a significant effect.

... but that doesn't explain how NPD gives 3.86 as the tie ratio for the Wii and Reggie gives "about 6.4".

The two are radically different, yet both claim to be tie ratios for the Wii console at this point in time.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

... but that doesn't explain how NPD gives 3.86 as the tie ratio for the Wii and Reggie gives "about 6.4".

The two are radically different, yet both claim to be tie ratios for the Wii console at this point in time.

I'm more apt to believe the one without the vested interest.

Or hell he might be saying store tie ratios, or some other shady thing.

 

[donny2112]

... but that doesn't explain how NPD gives 3.86 as the tie ratio for the Wii and Reggie gives "about 6.4".

The two are radically different, yet both claim to be tie ratios for the Wii console at this point in time.

He does call the 6.4 an "attach rate" instead of a tie ratio, so maybe he is including accessories in the total?

It could be shipped. What were the shipment figures for NA at the Sept 30th report? Close to 6.4?

 

[JMPovoa]

there can't be more consoles than are made.

a used console sale should not count -- if anything the person selling back a console does not count towards subtracting in the first place, so it shouldn't count as another +1, when there is no -1 going on.

Of course. It was the way that sonycowboy put it that felt weird to me. Essentially what he was trying to say is that you could somehow count the traded one as a +1 sale because it would eventually be sold later on as a used/refurb console. It's more a matter of when than how.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

... but that doesn't explain how NPD gives 3.86 as the tie ratio for the Wii and Reggie gives "about 6.4".

The two are radically different, yet both claim to be tie ratios for the Wii console at this point in time.

Through September 2007, their "The Americas" shipments were 3.09m hardware and 19.00m software, for a "shipped tie ratio" of 6.15. Seems pretty likely that's what's going on here.

Thanks dude.

So comparing system ownership to tie ratio, we can calculate each system's game buying rate:

PS3 29.3 weeks/4.01 games = 7.3 week 'buy rate'
Wii 25.6 weeks/3.86 games = 6.6 week 'buy rate'
360 49.3 weeks/6.85 games = 7.2 week 'buy rate'

So the average PS3 owner has bought a game every 7.3 weeks, the average Wii owner every 6.6 weeks, and the average 360 owner every 7.2 weeks.

Yeah. However, with tie ratio growth not being linear I become less sure this particular way of looking at things is useful, though I still think seeing average weeks owned is good next to tie ratio.

As of the end of November 2006, the average X360 ownership was 26.6 weeks, between what PS3 and Wii are now. If it's tie ratio was notably higher than PS3 and Wii's current tie ratios (which it was, at over 5), then its calculated "buying rate" would've been higher then, too.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Through September 2007, their "The Americas" shipments were 3.09m hardware and 19.00m software, for a "shipped tie ratio" of 6.15. Seems pretty likely that's what's going on here.

Also, I'm pretty sure Wii Sports is being counted in Nintendo's shipped tie ratio.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Also, I'm pretty sure Wii Sports is being counted in Nintendo's shipped tie ratio.

Half right. I forgot about this note at the bottom of the page:

"Actual sales units of software include quantity bundled with hardware.
Software forecast figures do include quantity bundled with hardware for the results ended September 30, 2007, however, software forecast figures in and after October 20007 do not include quantity bundled with hardware."

So seems likely that the September 6.15 includes Wii Sports, while the November 6.04 doesn't. At least, I assume if they stop counting bundled software for forecast figures they won't use it for the actual figures as well.

 

[D.Lo]

Yeah. However, with tie ratio growth not being linear I become less sure this particular way of looking at things is useful, though I still think seeing average weeks owned is good next to tie ratio.

As of the end of November 2006, the average X360 ownership was 26.6 weeks, between what PS3 and Wii are now. If it's tie ratio was notably higher than PS3 and Wii's current tie ratios (which it was, at over 5), then its calculated "buying rate" would've been higher then, too.

Absolutely, not claiming anything except trying to show that faster selling hardware drags the tie ratio down. The Wii added 17% to it's LTD this November alone.

About the bolded, for another comparison the 360 had a 3.8 million LTD in November 2006, so if the tie ratio was 5 at that point they would have sold 19 million games. Right now, the Wii has sold 6,019,400 consoles at a tie ratio of 3.86, so 23 million sold games over the equivalent period.

 

[MikeE21286]

I'm surprised that the Wii is so bad....(Last place?!?)

Quick Observation.......360s attach rates are obviously going to be higher....it has more games