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NPD Sales Results for August 2014 [Up4: PS4 #1, XB1 last week sales 2x last Jul week]

I

IndoAssassin

Banned
-Pyromaniac- said:
I normally don't care but this level of spin is just fucking stupid. Who are they trying to impress lol?
Click to expand...

Not you or I, but their shareholders who are probably wondering why MS is spending billions of dollars in gaming, yet are losing ground in every single market, including their home turf.

They have to say such things to keep investor confidence.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
theprodigy said:
I'm curious, how much of a bump do you guys think the Xbox One will get from Destiny+all those deals everywhere (PS4 will kill it, but I'm talking about absolute numbers here).
Click to expand...

So XB1's weekly average for July was ~33k, for August was about ~40k overall, maybe something like 31k for the first 3 weeks and 66k for the last week when the madden bundle released

For September, the madden bundle seems to have sold out its general allotment in the first week or 2 weeks. Gamestop, Target, Walmart, Amazon, MS Store are all out of stock. Only best buy seems to carry it online

So a positive effect on sales from the madden bundle is probably only true for the first week or week and a half barring any restocking. Then there's Destinys launch combined with the get a free game incentive plus 5 weeks versus 4

I'm going to say the baseline for XB1 naturally was around 34k a week prior to september which would suggest 170k for september

I'm going to guess 240k to 250k with all the other effects going on
 
A

AniHawk

Member
SwiftDeath said:
So XB1's weekly average for July was ~33k, for August was about ~40k overall, maybe something like 31k for the first 3 weeks and 66k for the last week when the madden bundle released

For September, the madden bundle seems to have sold out its general allotment in the first week or 2 weeks. Gamestop, Target, Walmart, Amazon, MS Store are all out of stock. Only best buy seems to carry it online

So a positive effect on sales from the madden bundle is probably only true for the first week or week and a half barring any restocking. Then there's Destinys launch combined with the get a free game incentive plus 5 weeks versus 4

I'm going to say the baseline for XB1 naturally was around 34k a week prior to september which would suggest 170k for september

I'm going to guess 240k to 250k with all the other effects going on
Click to expand...

200k as a baseline seems likely. for the ps4, i expect at least 300k for similar reasons. its weekly average has hovered around 50k for the last few months, and in a 5 week month that's at least 250k. the system could/should do anywhere from 350,000 to 400,000 and more depending on how well the destiny bundle moved and how many of them were available (i am assuming plenty, with the focus it received at the start of the e3 conference).

down to nintendo, they should do at least 70k-75k, again based on weekly averages. i am not sure the effect of the new bundles will have later in the month. perhaps 90,000 wouldn't be too outrageous of an assumption? maybe even 100,000 to beat last year's september sales. there haven't been too many months this year where the wii u was down year over year, but september was the month with the price drop.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Yeah 350k - 400k sounds like a decent PS4 prediction assuming you're optimistic on Destiny's effect and bundle. I can't see it doing less than 300k personally

Wii U. I have no idea anymore. I am pessimistic on the system and it overperforms. I am optimistic and it underperforms.

I'll be pessimistic this month and predict all of 80k which is slightly higher weekly average due to the bundles
 
A

AniHawk

Member
SwiftDeath said:
Yeah 350k - 400k sounds like a decent PS4 prediction assuming you're optimistic on Destiny's effect and bundle. I can't see it doing less than 300k personally

Wii U. I have no idea anymore. I am pessimistic on the system and it overperforms. I am optimistic and it underperforms.

I'll be pessimistic this month and predict all of 80k which is slightly higher weekly average due to the bundles
Click to expand...

bundles, plus hyrule warriors is getting a television campaign where the wind waker hd bundle didn't. i don't think it's a system seller, but just giving the platform any exposure is something that should at least buoy sales a little and keep the weekly average from going down.

looking back, it seems september pretty much carries over from the months leading into it, unless there's a bundle or massive release. i find it fascinating that these platforms can have steady sales like they do, where there's no wild fluctuations based on weekly averages when there aren't any major shakeups happening either.
 
A

ascii42

Member
Final Verdict said:
No way that will happen, no way possible.

I expect the X1 to drop to $349 after the holidays, and maybe bundle some games in the fall. I don't expect the PS4's price to drop until either the fall, or maybe even spring 2016.

Considering how many good (hopefully good) exclusives the PS4 has coming next year, I wouldn't be surprised if Sony could get away with leaving it at $399, and just bundling free games like MS has been doing this year.
Click to expand...

Even the PS2 got a $100 price drop within 18 months or so of coming out. I expect Sony to respond to an Xbox One price drop with one of their own.
 
T

Ty4on

Member
SwiftDeath said:
So XB1's weekly average for July was ~33k, for August was about ~40k overall, maybe something like 31k for the first 3 weeks and 66k for the last week when the madden bundle released
Click to expand...
60k is also "almost double" of 33k so weekly sales could have been constant before the bundle came out. No big difference, but trends can be important to keep track of. One thing for sure is that they stayed very constant outside of that week, like always :p

When it comes to PS4 sales doesn't the destiny bundle beating XB1 Titanfall bundle on Amazon mean it could have sold 300k on its own?
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Ty4on said:
When it comes to PS4 sales doesn't the destiny bundle beating XB1 Titanfall bundle on Amazon mean it could have sold 300k on its own?
Click to expand...

I don't know, the regular PS4 bundle is sticking in the charts ahead of the regular XB1 too. It's possible I guess. Depends on the supply during September I would imagine as most would go for the $10 savings plus white console I think
 
M

Miles X

Member
150k is the baseline for XB1 in September then, without natural September gains, Destiny, Horizons and "buy an XB1 get a free game promo".

Surely it can clearly 250k with all that?

PS4 should be way higher.

WiiU should get a little bump just because, but probably not much, 85k~
 
M

Mory Dunz

Member
AniHawk said:
bundles, plus hyrule warriors is getting a television campaign where the wind waker hd bundle didn't. i don't think it's a system seller, but just giving the platform any exposure is something that should at least buoy sales a little and keep the weekly average from going down.

looking back, it seems september pretty much carries over from the months leading into it, unless there's a bundle or massive release. i find it fascinating that these platforms can have steady sales like they do, where there's no wild fluctuations based on weekly averages when there aren't any major shakeups happening either.
Click to expand...

Is the Hyrule Warriors commercial actually on TV?
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Dynopia said:
150k is the baseline for XB1 in September then, without natural September gains, Destiny, Horizons and "buy an XB1 get a free game promo".

Surely it can clearly 250k with all that?

PS4 should be way higher.

WiiU should get a little bump just because, but probably not much, 85k~
Click to expand...

I expect >300k for Xbox One in September. Could be equal to or a bit more than Titanfall month.

PS4 to clear 400k easily.

Wii U doesn't really have anything to bring weekly sales up that much. 75k-80k seems likely.
 
L

LOCK

Member
If the Wii U keeps it's 15k weekly average that puts us at 75k for September. Now you have to take into account Hyrule Warriors and bundles. Maybe a 100k month?
 
S

serversurfer

Member
Nirolak said:
That would be pretty high for Battlefield unless console online connection rates have tanked: http://kotaku.com/5883758/to-my-fellow-almost-offline-gamers-we-are-the-20
Click to expand...
That article seems to draw the conclusion that because 20% of buyers are interested in leaderboards but not multiplayer, the other 80% are playing multiplayer.

But that ignores the significant number of consoles that have never been online for any reason, or the people who have access to the leaderboards, but don't particularly care about them any more than they care about multiplayer. All similar groups would be deducted from that 80%.
 
Z

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
LOCK said:
If the Wii U keeps it's 15k weekly average that puts us at 75k for September. Now you have to take into account Hyrule Warriors and bundles. Maybe a 100k month?
Click to expand...

It'd be interesting to see whether it can beat last year's sales (last September was the pricecut month at 93K).
 
H

hodayathink

Member
quetz67 said:
Yep, white Destiny PS4 alone sold in 4 days what the best selling XBone SKU sold in the months it was available (Amazon, 2014).
Click to expand...

All that means is that it's selling well, but isn't any indication of how well it's selling, because we have no idea how well XB1 bundles sell on Amazon from a pure numerical standpoint. They could have sold a few hundred or a few thousand at this point and we wouldn't know for sure.
 
A

ArchedThunder

Banned
ascii42 said:
Even the PS2 got a $100 price drop within 18 months or so of coming out. I expect Sony to respond to an Xbox One price drop with one of their own.
Click to expand...

Man, if the PS4 gets to $300 in Q1/2 of 2015 then I really hope Nintendo will finally be in a position to drop the price of the Wii U...
 
N

NolbertoS

Member
BishopLamont said:
I miss the old days of NPD where we actually got numbers, I no longer feel any kind of anticipation and excitement for NPD results.
Click to expand...

Blame Sony and MS, moreso than anything. They realized that releasing NPD actual numbers hurt there sales, as they're perceived as inferior compared to there competitors. At least some peeps like Cream, aqua and others release a few crumbs here and there.
 
S

StevieP

Banned
NolbertoS said:
Blame Sony and MS, moreso than anything. They realized that releasing NPD actual numbers hurt there sales, as they're perceived as inferior compared to there competitors. At least some peeps like Cream, aqua and others release a few crumbs here and there.
Click to expand...

More so sony iirc
 
N

Nightengale

Member
StevieP said:
More so sony iirc
Click to expand...

Well, they were the losing platform in NA back when the publicity of NPD numbers is more transparent due to the internet, so they took the first step where MS was clearly comfortable to continue highlighting their leadership numbers.

Now that MS is on the backfoot, they've copied Sony's approach, and Sony is smart enough to not let their current position change their messaging, at risk of suddenly looking like a sore loser if they ever want to keep the numbers quiet again.
 
M

mrklaw

MrArseFace
Dynopia said:
150k is the baseline for XB1 in September then, without natural September gains, Destiny, Horizons and "buy an XB1 get a free game promo".

Surely it can clearly 250k with all that?

PS4 should be way higher.

WiiU should get a little bump just because, but probably not much, 85k~
Click to expand...

I don't think so.

Horizons is right at the end of the month so will have limited impact. The free game might, but ere have been great deals throughout the year and people haven't jumped in en masse so that will also have a limited effect I think. Destiny will probably be the biggest impact.

Biggest increase will just be the seasonal uptick for September IMO. Not sure if that would take it over 250k though. Maybe break 200k?
 
S

stryke

Member
Let's play spot the difference -

a21dqDq.png


7CylP8R.png
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
You have to remember PS4 users have also the bundle as another option for Destiny. Still, it seriously seems the Xbox One version of the game is doing pretty well on Amazon.com.

P.S. Can we get an update on Tomodachi Life's sales, please? :p
 
M

MilesTeg

Banned
ZSaberLink said:
It'd be interesting to see whether it can beat last year's sales (last September was the pricecut month at 93K).
Click to expand...

It also got TW101 and WWHD released digitally. It also had to compete with GTAV.

This year is similar in that Destiny has released, and Wii U has a Zelda coming. But no price drop. I see Wii U around 80k for September based on Hyrule Warriors and the fact that September is a better sales month than August. So not too great.
 
B

BishopLamont

Banned
NolbertoS said:
Blame Sony and MS, moreso than anything. They realized that releasing NPD actual numbers hurt there sales, as they're perceived as inferior compared to there competitors. At least some peeps like Cream, aqua and others release a few crumbs here and there.
Click to expand...
Part of the blame falls on NPD for following suit, they can easily give away top 10 software and hardware numbers without hurting their business, yet they choose not to.

At the very least they can give software numbers, if sony and ms really wants to hide their hw numbers that much.
 
Z

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
MilesTeg said:
It also got TW101 and WWHD released digitally. It also had to compete with GTAV.

This year is similar in that Destiny has released, and Wii U has a Zelda coming. But no price drop. I see Wii U around 80k for September based on Hyrule Warriors and the fact that September is a better sales month than August. So not too great.
Click to expand...

TW101 was probably a non-factor in hardware sales. Not sure why that counts... Basically last September there was only the pricecut/WWHD bundle in terms of things that likely moved the needle on Wii U sales.

Also Smash 3DS at #3 now, Hyrule at #9.
 
J

jcm

Member
BishopLamont said:
Part of the blame falls on NPD for following suit, they can easily give away top 10 software and hardware numbers without hurting their business, yet they choose not to.

At the very least they can give software numbers, if sony and ms really wants to hide their hw numbers that much.
Click to expand...

All of the blame falls on NPD. Japan proves that a tracker (or three!) can release data if they choose to.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
jcm said:
All of the blame falls on NPD. Japan proves that a tracker (or three!) can release data if they choose to.
Click to expand...

Famitsu / Media Create only release so much data because they're competing with each other.

I guarantee you that they would be much more NPD-esque if they didn't have any competition.
 
Z

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
Sorry, I think I asked this before and got an answer before (on a different NPD thread), but what were the US software sales for the top 5-10 GC titles?
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
ZSaberLink said:
Sorry, I think I asked this before and got an answer before (on a different NPD thread), but what were the US software sales for the top 5-10 GC titles?
Click to expand...

--------4 million
1) Super Smash Bros. Melee (Nintendo)
--------3 million
2) Super Mario Sunshine (Nintendo)
3) Mario Kart: Double Dash (Nintendo)
4) The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker (Nintendo)
--------2 million
5) Luigi's Mansion (Nintendo)
6) Animal Crossing (Nintendo)
7) Metroid Prime (Nintendo)
8) Sonic Adventure 2: Battle (Sega)
9) Sonic Mega Collection (Sega)
10) Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door (Nintendo)
--------1 million
 
M

MilesTeg

Banned
ZSaberLink said:
TW101 was probably a non-factor in hardware sales. Not sure why that counts... Basically last September there was only the pricecut/WWHD bundle in terms of things that likely moved the needle on Wii U sales.

Also Smash 3DS at #3 now, Hyrule at #9.
Click to expand...

It was a game release for Wii U which was rare enough in and of itself. Obviously it didn't do much, I was just mentioning it. That's one more game than Wii U has this September. Rayman Legends also released.

Either way this September won't be good for Wii U, especially since HW doesn't release until late in the month. Not that I'm expecting the game to push hardware or even sell that great. No hardware bundles either. I mean the console really hasn't had a notable release since MK8 basically 4 months ago so all momentum has been lost at this point.

I see Wii U having pretty similar numbers year over year for the next couple months, maybe slightly less than last year.
 
E

Eddie Griffin

Banned
Dynopia said:
150k is the baseline for XB1 in September then, without natural September gains, Destiny, Horizons and "buy an XB1 get a free game promo".

Surely it can clearly 250k with all that?

PS4 should be way higher.

WiiU should get a little bump just because, but probably not much, 85k~
Click to expand...

Horizon is literally at the end of septemeber, I'm not sure how mcuh you think it will move in about a day.

Also why does it say Up4? Where's the 4th update/?
 
Z

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
Aquamarine said:
--------4 million
1) Super Smash Bros. Melee (Nintendo)
--------3 million
2) Super Mario Sunshine (Nintendo)
3) Mario Kart: Double Dash (Nintendo)
4) The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker (Nintendo)
--------2 million
5) Luigi's Mansion (Nintendo)
6) Animal Crossing (Nintendo)
7) Metroid Prime (Nintendo)
8) Sonic Adventure 2: Battle (Sega)
9) Sonic Mega Collection (Sega)
10) Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door (Nintendo)
--------1 million
Click to expand...

Thanks Aqua! It shows how badly the Wii U has been doing so far....

So in the US we have this for the Wii U based on Nintendo's last press release?

New Super Mario Bros. U
Mario Kart 8
------- 1 million
Super Mario 3D World
------- 500,000
Is there even anything in this range? I would assume something is slightly above 300K by now >_>...
------- 300,000
pretty much everything else o_O?.... jeez >_>...
....


Also I just finished Layton vs. Ace Attorney (brilliant game imo), and in some of the post-game content, they keep joking they sold 5million copies of the game... it makes all the more sad when it sounds like it sold miserably =(.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
where's the GC/DC/Wii U comparison graph? I saw the one with all the Nintendo consoles earlier

also could someone drop off September-December 2003 Gamecube numbers (and the equivalent Gamecube LTD at this time, if possible)
 
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