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Official December NPD Prediction Thread (Pachter kills EVERYBODY! Bow down!!!)

D

DeadGzuz

Banned
[360]1100K
[GBA]200K
[NDS]1500K
[PS2]1000K
[PS3]800K
[PSP]1200K
[WII]1200K

I think the PSP, DS and Wii were all supply constrained.
 
D

donny2112

Member
DeadGzuz said:
[360]1100K
[GBA]200K
[NDS]1500K
[PS2]1000K
[PS3]800K
[PSP]1200K
[WII]1200K

I think the PSP, DS and Wii were all supply constrained.
Click to expand...

You think the DS was so supply-constrained that it sold less in a five-week month which includes Christmas than a four-week month that doesn't? And the PSP, supply-constrained as it was, doubled its November total?
 
W

Wii-za

Member
[360] 1,450,000
[GBA] 450,000
[NDS] 2,770,000
[PS2] 950,000
[PS3] 950,000
[PSP] 1,150,000
[WII] 1,750,000

BTW, thanks donny! :D
 
G

Gadfly

While flying into a tree he exclaimed "Egad!"
AniHawk said:
[360] 1,300,000
[GBA] 200,000
[NDS] 2,950,000
[PS2] 800,000
[PS3] 600,000
[PSP] 1,000,000
[WII] 1,500,000
Click to expand...
Wow, that's way too low for PS3. That's even less than half of your 360 prediction.
 
B

Brakara

Member
GhaleonEB said:
I usually do this early so my predictions are not colored by the trends I see, but in this case I'm going to hold off in case the big three put out any data points for sales.
Click to expand...

You could still post now, then just edit if any sales data gets out. That is, if you really do want to avoid being colored by trends you see.
 
Minsc

Minsc

Gold Member
[360] 1440K
[GBA] 400K
[NDS] 2390K
[PS2] 930K
[PS3] 780K
[PSP] 1060K
[WII] 1530K

The ranges for December's 5 week numbers are going to be all over the board.
 
Link

Link

The Autumn Wind
Did I miss something? Everyone's guesses for the Wii are really high. Did Nintendo make an announcement or something?
 
T

Thunder Monkey

Banned
Link said:
Did I miss something? Everyone's guesses for the Wii are really high. Did Nintendo make an announcement or something?
Click to expand...
700,000 units over last months seems possible given December is a five week month, with some of the most frenzied shopping of the year.

We know they'll sell out of anything they have, the number they released is the only point of contention. We also heard about an increase of shipments at the last portion of December.

If December follows along with November I'll probably overshoot the system by 200,000 units. Meaning using Monkey failure as a metric, the system will sell around 1.4 million units.
 
L

Lobster

Banned
[360]1400K
[GBA]700K
[NDS]2200K
[PS2]1000K
[PS3]850K
[PSP]900K
[WII]1650K

Urgh..I just know im gonna be way off..This month is so hard...
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
[360] 1,400,000
[GBA] 250,000
[NDS] 2,400,000
[PS2] 1,100,000
[PS3] 850,000
[PSP] 1,150,000
[WII] 1,700,000


Record numbers for this holiday season across the board... :)
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
duk said:
supply constrained? :D

There is no way 'WII > 360+PS3'
Click to expand...


Haha, PSP maybe, as I can't remember even one Daxter bundle shipment in December, but PS3, no. We sold out of pretty much everything else (but PS2s, which we had tons of all month long), but always had our trusty PS3's in stock. Sales did noticeably rise in my store in December over November, as well. So the possibility of PS3 actually lowering is laughable.
 
R

RBH

Member
[360] 1300k
[GBA] 200k
[NDS] 2300k
[PS2] 700k
[PS3] 800k
[PSP] 1100k
[WII] 1600k

I expect the 360 to surpass the 1100k mark set last year. I'm unsure about how the PS3 will do given the amount of competition, but I think that the PSP should reach the million mark. PS2 is starting to finally show signs of declining sales after one hell of a run, and the Wii+DS will do monster numbers.

Software, as usual, will be difficult to predict, but I don't see any of the December releases making the Top 10.
 
G

gollumsluvslave

Member
Ok doke what do we have to work with?

5 week period, but likely much lower sales for the week up to Jan 5.

I have always been burned by DS in past predictions - it must easily be clearing 2 mill.

Wii has obviously sold everything that has been shipped, so the question is how much has been shipped?

360 has had some reports of Premium and Elite shortages, with Arcade and Halo sku's in abundance - maybe 360 will see lower than expected sales.

PS3 got a decent boost in November, can it keep it up?

So factoring all that in:-

[360] 1,370,000
[GBA] 112,000
[NDS] 2,751,000
[PS2] 841,000
[PS3] 830,000
[PSP] 1020,000
[WII] 1,657,000

So, 360 will be up on December 2006, but not by as much as it should be considering the lower price and better library.

DS - I've gone insanely high, but it's been insanely high all year, why would it stop now?

PS3/PS2 - I think the PS2 will still outsell the PS3 - 2008 will be the PS3's xmas though.
 
D

djtiesto

is beloved, despite what anyone might say
[360] 950,000
[GBA] 130,000
[NDS] 1,900,000
[PS2] 650,000
[PS3] 450,000
[PSP] 700,000
[WII] 1,200,000
 
J

Jiggy

Member
I always manage to get owned by 360 and DS one way or another. Let's see it go again. :D


[360] 1,340,633
[GBA] 234,765
[NDS] 2,350,452
[PS2] 885,885
[PS3] 599,935
[PSP] 964,727
[WII] 1,545,303
 
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