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Russia says they killed ISIS leader

Weckum

Member
With ISIS' control in Iraq waning, losing their leader is a big deal. Obviously he will be replaced but the important distinction between Baghdadi and Al-Qaeda/bin Laden is ISIS' followers believed Baghdadi was the Caliph of a divine Caliphate, you can't just replace that. I imagine some followers will be very disheartened to the overall cause.


Not just Iraq, Syria as well. SDF is on the doorstep of Raqqa, the 'caliphate's capital'.
 

velociraptor

Junior Member
I think it's time for western intelligence agencies to improvise.

I imagine they could easily send spies to infiltrate ISIS. Gain their trust, take a few explosives with them and inflict as much damage as possible.

I'm a genius
 

Xtyle

Member
Can't Russia lie about it? Maybe they just want to help take heat off Trump team or maybe it gives Trump reasons to ease sanctions like hey, they have done good, how about we lift sanctions so they can do even more good!
 
Wassim Nasr (french specialist on ISIS and other similar groups) tweet:

"If it was true, ISIS would have announced it, the death of a jihadist leader is often promoted".

https://twitter.com/SimNasr/status/875629175008149512

Also "Since 2006, ISIS (back then, Al Qaida in Irak) always annunced the death of their leaders and was proud of it."

He also add that when the Talibans have hidden the death of Mullah Omar, it really hit their public image (among potential jihadi candidates).
 
Wassim Nasr (french specialist on ISIS and other similar groups) tweet:

"If it was true, ISIS would have announced it, the death of a jihadist leader is often promoted".

https://twitter.com/SimNasr/status/875629175008149512

Also "Since 2006, ISIS (back then, Al Qaida in Irak) always annunced the death of their leaders and was proud of it."

He also add that when the Talibans have hidden the death of Mullah Omar, it really hit their public image (among potential jihadi candidates).

Fair point but this goes the other way as well: they love rubbing our faces in it when we miss our targets, defiantly popping up somewhere else.

If their leadership really was hit, their propaganda wing may not be sure themselves.
 

Nibel

Member
I mean

Russia says a lot of stuff
wtzgU.gif
 

Mask

Member
Don't really believe it tbh.

The skeptic in me says this is an attempt to portray Russia as heroes for taking out a terrorist leader so Trump has something to point to and demand the sanctions be removed while using it as leverage against congress to convince them to allow it past the recent powers that got passed.
 

cameron

Member
BREAKING: US-led anti-Islamic State group coalition says it cannot confirm reports IS leader was killed in airstrike.

— The Associated Press‏ (@AP) June 16, 2017



Bit from NYT: Russian Military Says It Might Have Killed ISIS Leader
Raqqa has been under attack on the ground by American-backed Kurdish and Arab forces, which have been closing in during recent weeks. An American-led coalition of Western and Arab air forces is also attacking Raqqa.

The Russian statement made no mention of coordination with foreign forces in the strike. It was also unclear whether the Russian military knew in advance that Mr. Baghdadi was at the gathering, or learned of this possibility only after the strike.

The Russian military does not draw a sharp separation between its psychological warfare operations and its media office, meaning the statement's purpose could be tactical and intended to assist Russian forces in Syria. A claim that the terrorist leader has been killed, regardless of the evidence, sows doubt among Islamic State fighters.

Russia is believed to have an extensive intelligence operation targeting the Islamic State that makes use of the large numbers of former Soviet Muslims who have joined the group.



This isn't what Rosenstein was talking about?
Good question. Timing might just be a coincidence.
 

snap0212

Member
Don't really believe it tbh.

The skeptic in me says this is an attempt to portray Russia as heroes for taking out a terrorist leader so Trump has something to point to and demand the sanctions be removed while using it as leverage against congress to convince them to allow it past the recent powers that got passed.
All the articles I've seen say that they might have killed him and that they're just not sure. That the guy might have been there. Hardly a celebratory pat on their own shoulders.
 
Let's just recall to everyone what Russian state media are.

They are the one saying that everybody and his grandmother is funding ISIS. They are the one that spread the bs about ISIS being directed by a Mossad agent (at least in their spanish version of RT).

So saying that it's highly unlikely is an understatement.
 
I'm more surprised they hit ISIS.




Second it's really curious timing that something that will take weeks to verify gets announced right before a new sanctions package that Trump can't unilaterally lift comes to his desk.

🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔
 
I don't believe anyone claimed to have killed al-Baghdadi. They just throw "ISIS Leader" into the headline all the time, because it sounds better.

Wiki:
On 20 July 2015, The New York Times wrote that rumors that al-Baghdadi had been killed or injured earlier in the year had been "dispelled".[144]

On 11 October 2015, the Iraqi air force claimed to have bombed al-Baghdadi's convoy in the western Anbar province close to the Syrian border while he was heading to Kerabla to attend an ISIL meeting, the location of which was also said to be bombed. His fate was not immediately confirmed.[145] There were some subsequent speculation that he may not have been present in the convoy at all.[146]

On 9 June 2016, Iraqi State TV claimed that al-Baghdadi had been wounded in a US airstrike in Northern Iraq. Coalition spokesmen said they could not confirm the reports.[147]

On 14 June 2016, several Middle Eastern media outlets claimed that al-Baghdadi had been killed in a US airstrike in Raqqa on 12 June. Coalition spokesmen said they could not confirm the reports.[148][149] The Independent however later stated that these reports of Baghdadi's death were based on a digitally altered image claiming to be a media statement from ISIL.[150]

On 3 October 2016, various media outlets claimed that al-Baghdadi and 3 senior ISIL leaders were poisoned by an assassin but still alive.[151]

On 11 June 2017, Syrian state TV has claimed al-Baghdadi has been killed in the artillery strike that was backed by the US.[152][153] On 16 June 2017, Russian media reported that al-Baghdadi might have been killed in a Russian air strike on May 28.[154][155]

I mean... yeah. Iraki/Syrian/Russian medias.
 

snap0212

Member
Wiki:


I mean... yeah. Iraki/Syrian/Russian medias.
No country claimed it is what I mean. No country has ever claimed to have killed him.

Reports about him being wounded, about him being there where the bombs hit and whatnot are not really claims that they killed him. That's what I mean.

This new report is the closest thing we've ever gotten and I cannot find the source either. I want to know wether Russia says they killed him or if they said they believe he might have been there. The official quotes all say the latter, but AP makes it sound like it's the former.

This sentence ("The Russian Defense Ministry said Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed in a Russian strike in late May along with other senior group commanders.") is the one I cannot find anywhere.
 

BADMAN

Member
I wanna see the receipts!

Seriously though that would be nice. I don't have a ton of knowledge on Isis. Would the death of this leader make a serious impact or would his #2 take is place and things go back to status quo?
 

Steel

Banned
Let's just recall to everyone what Russian state media are.

They are the one saying that everybody and his grandmother is funding ISIS. They are the one that spread the bs about ISIS being directed by a Mossad agent (at least in their spanish version of RT).

So saying that it's highly unlikely is an understatement.

It's also possible it's a boy who cried wolf situation where they actually did get him this time, but lied too much beforehand to be credible. I mean, it's not impossible for this to be true.
 

snap0212

Member
I wanna see the receipts!
There are none, because Russia never claimed to have killed him. The official statement says that they've killed high-ranking people and that they've received information that al-Baghdadi was there as well and that they're currently verifying that information.

That's what the Defense Ministry actually said. They don't claim anything else.
 
I wanna see the receipts!

Seriously though that would be nice. I don't have a ton of knowledge on Isis. Would the death of this leader make a serious impact or would his #2 take is place and things go back to status quo?

Not all leaders are created equal. Bin laden was charasmatic, from a respectable background and tons of connections and respected by his most devout followers. His #2 came in and was far less effective, but still dangerous.
 

SpaceWolf

Banned
Wouldn't it be infinitely better to take him alive? I guess it's overly wishful thinking considering we don't know the exact circumstances of the operation.
 

BADMAN

Member
Not all leaders are created equal. Bin laden was charasmatic, from a respectable background and tons of connections and respected by his most devout followers. His #2 came in and was far less effective, but still dangerous.

Yeah that's what I was thinking. I have no idea how important the leader is to ISIL. Hopefully very important and now very dead.
 
T

Transhuman

Unconfirmed Member
I wonder if all those journalists critical of Putin they killed were ISIS leaders too
 
Russian MOD talks generally about the decapitation strike. The source mentioning al-Baghdadi seems to be Syrian state television, which definitely proved unreliable in the past. Bad call by AP if they combined these two snippets without confirmation.

My read is that the air strike did hurt IS-leadership significantly but no one knows which commanders were actually on site when the ordnance came down.
 

snap0212

Member
Russian MOD talks generally about the decapitation strike. The source mentioning al-Baghdadi seems to be Syrian state television, which definitely proved unreliable in the past. Bad call by AP if they combined these two snippets without confirmation.

My read is that the air strike did hurt IS-leadership significantly but no one knows which commanders were actually on site when the ordnance came down.
Yeah, what AP is saying is simply made up.
 
Even if it's true sadly it won't make a difference, someone else will become leader. Still good though if it is.

We know he already made arrangement to defer his military command to successors but this guy's main strengths are political acumen and a personality that inspires loyalty (which often gives him early warning of maneuvers in Iraq, old associates continue to feed him intelligence.) There are some deep political/religious/tribal divisions within ISIS as they battle on two fronts, so any successor is going to have some pretty big boots to fill as he tries to keep their shit together.

There's a definite advantage for anti-ISIS forces to take him out of play. Even if they absorb the shock of his absence completely, it'll slow down their decision making process and reaction speed at a crucial moment in the campaign.
 

spekkeh

Banned
Don't believe he is dead. But also don't believe ISIS would readily announce it. The Caliph and descendant from Mohammed is something else than just a jihadi leader.
 
Don't believe he is dead. But also don't believe ISIS would readily announce it. The Caliph and descendant from Mohammed is something else than just a jihadi leader.

There is hundreds of thousands of seyyed (people claiming to be descendant of the Prophet) just look at the iranian political and religious leadership. I don't think that it will change anything, at the contrary, having a "martyred" Caliph could give a boost to the moral of the ISIS troops.
 

spekkeh

Banned
There is hundreds of thousands of seyyed (people claiming to be descendant of the Prophet) just look at the iranian political and religious leadership. I don't think that it will change anything, at the contrary, having a "martyred" Caliph could give a boost to the moral of the ISIS troops.
Obviously I'm not very knowledgeable on Islamic eschatology, but what if numbers 2, 3, and 4 on the chain of command are not seyyed? (Or would they not become 2 3 4 in the first place if they weren't). Will they go to number 5? Do they postpone the returning of the Mahdi for a bit until they find a new Caliph? And what about the return of the Caliph did not lead to the return of the Mahdi? Can a not seyyed take over without them being a bit like the Umayyad. I feel like it would all be a bit more involved and delicate than saying Allahuackbar meet number two he's now number one.
 

GSG Flash

Nobody ruins my family vacation but me...and maybe the boy!
I hope it's true, this shit stain needs to be wiped off the face of the earth.
 
Obviously I'm not very knowledgeable on Islamic eschatology, but what if numbers 2, 3, and 4 on the chain of command are not seyyed? (Or would they not become 2 3 4 in the first place if they weren't). Will they go to number 5? Do they postpone the returning of the Mahdi for a bit until they find a new Caliph? And what about the return of the Caliph did not lead to the return of the Mahdi? Can a not seyyed take over without them being a bit like the Umayyad. I feel like it would all be a bit more involved and delicate than saying Allahuackbar meet number two he's now number one.

They don't need the Caliph to be seyyed. Of course, it have some weight but not as much as you might think. I think the first eschatological euphory about ISIS is long gone since their territory is getting eaten by the iraqi forces. Just think about them loosing a place like Dabiq (very important in their eschatology). Let's just remember that they were planning on marching on Rome (lol).

So i think it will become more like Al-Qaida. I don't even know if they will maintain this caliphate BS, because if they don't control any significant territory, it don't even mean anything. The Caliph is supposed to rule and the represent the whole muslim world.

About the succession, it won't be a problem. I mean, they didn't have any kind of issue with breaking with AQ overnight and declaring them apostates.
 

RPGCrazied

Member
Trying so hard to get those sanctions removed. Get a US President of their choosing, nope, make false claims about doing stuff to ISIS, nope. We even have a new bill that Trump can't lift the sanctions.

What's next Putin?
 

Z3K

Member
If true then well done Russia! Hopefully this signals the beginning of the end of ISIS (although I'm sure it will evolve into some other organisation as the ideology is still there).
 

Reckheim

Member
Can't Russia lie about it? Maybe they just want to help take heat off Trump team or maybe it gives Trump reasons to ease sanctions like hey, they have done good, how about we lift sanctions so they can do even more good!

Not everything in the world is a conspiracy.
 
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