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[Days like these...]

PS4 is struggling because it has no games. WiiU is doing less than satisfactory for a console that has already launched several system seller class games. (3D World, Mario Kart) but it should do better in coming months, etc as Smash and the 2015 games come rolling.

In the end, it's all about the games. Some would argue that PS4 would had been better served if it launched in 2015, ( since all the key Japanese titles only start appearing from 2015 onwards ), but that's just one perspective, because it's debatable that by launching early, Sony establishes an early 600k+ install base without any real effort at all, at the cost of poor weekly sales for the rest of the year.



I can't formulate a proper sentence to respond to you about what I think about your prediction...

Let's just talk about this again in 2-3 weeks, once XB1 numbers come in, and we'll revisit your 2 million estimation.

Quoted the wrong post. I meant to quote you about the 15% contraction. Psycho mantis claimed ps4 would outsell ps3 because reasons/feels. Also after languishing for a year on the shelves I don't think ps4 will suddenly do gangbusters if/when the software hits. That isn't to say that I think the xbone will beat it

 

[Dreamgazer]

How did I undermine anything?

The whole point is about abysmal low sales, how would that undermine Xbox having a better chance in comparison?

You got what? 1.6 million Xbox 360's, 10 million PS3's, and what 14 million Wiis? (may be wrong with the wii number?

Compare to say (for example) 1 million Xbox Ones, 4 million PS4's and say 6 million Wii us in most likely the best case?

That looks much better than a 9-13 million sales gap. It wouldn't look as bad, and more devs would probably support the Xbox One because of that. It would be in a much better position than the 360 ever would have been.

Now of course, I am also no going to leave out the possibility that Xbox One could indeed reach a very strong low early and pretty much be the worst selling consoles.

Your “examples” are still horrible.

Say the 1m/4m/6m example.

The following assumptions will have to be made here:
1) Gen to gen sales are lower.
2) Gen to gen reductions in sales are going to be the approximately the same for all platforms.
3) Some magical sales boost will happen to the WII U’s current rate of sales.
4) End gen sale will be Wii U > PS4 > XB1.
5) Sales gap between the consoles will not widen dramtically.
&
6) XB1 will have a lower % in sales reduction.

Assumption 1 is probable. Assumption 2, 3, 4 &5 are baseless and remote.
And your argument for assumption 6 is based on assumptions 1-5 holding true.

Hence it’s the classic case of “let’s assume my assumptions are true.”

Now, if we assume assumption are true, but realistic sales figures are going to be significantly lower, something like this:

0.5m XB1 /2m PS4/ 3m Wii U

The upside for XB1’s software sales is now capped to 500K copies.

I can easily argue that after factoring attachment rate, there’s no point to for developers or MS to spend $ to develop from that platform. You’re going to go nowhere.

And since most of the assumptions are baseless, there's no point even to assume this scenario is going to be true until we have actual numbers.

 

[crinale]

Some used games shops announced they're currently not accepting Xbox One trade-ins.
(They'll still take software though).

 

[SneakyStephan]

http://youtu.be/kiP7K4uL9F8

Are they selling xboxes or eternal salvation by jehova?
And I see what... 7 employees and no customers in those pictures, how much money are they losing doing that.
edit: no wait one guy looks like he could be a shopper, the guy in the seat playing the racing game.

 

[Nightengale]

Quoted the wrong post. I meant to quote you about the 15% contraction. Psycho mantis claimed ps4 would outsell ps3 because reasons/feels. Also after languishing for a year on the shelves I don't think ps4 will suddenly do gangbusters if/when the software hits. That isn't to say that I think the xbone will beat it

There's a chance for PS4 to outsell the PS3, but I think it's extremely, extremely difficult and improbable.

 

[Myshkin]

If the competition goes to pieces, the PS4 might outsell the PS3?
That's like saying the 3DS might outsell the PSP.

 

[Days like these...]

Wait, help me understand are your saying the ps4 will outsell the ps triple? We're talking about Japan not worldwide.

 

[Nightengale]

If the competition goes to pieces, the PS4 might outsell the PS3?
That's like saying the 3DS might outsell the PSP.

Nah, terrible competition won't be a factor in whether or not PS4 may/may not outsell the PS3. Wii owners aren't migrating over to the PS4 in liew of WiiU or whatever.

I can think of a few potential factors that may help ( but probably won't) :

- increasing popularity of western games as a whole. GTA is big, CoD is consistent, ND's games have grown in popularity, and Destiny seems to have potential. These games may not come close to the established Japanese games, but more of such games will only benefit the install base.

- the increase towards multi-platform development. Last gen, we had many exclusives to handhelds because games were developed only with Japan in mind, but still could do well globally because DS/PSP did well. However, with the western market being console focused vs Japan being handheld focused, it's probably not ideal to be 100% handheld focused as they are. I think we'll see more multiplats (3DS/PS4/Vita) moving forward or something along those lines... maybe.

- mah feels! Jokes aside, I do think that the core franchises this gen ( MGS, FF, Persona, etc) are really primed to do well. Persona 5 will unquestionably do better than P4 ever did, MGSV looks stellar and a return to form, and FF... well, show more stuff, Nomura! If those games could potentially, hopefully, reignite the spark surrounding said games/IP/console, I think it could give a boost to the console sales overall.


The stars will need to be aligned for all of the above to happen, and even then, I'm still skeptical.

 

[a Master Ninja]

And you guys said there were no Xbox fans in Japan.

 

[Bullza2o]

And you guys said there were no Xbox fans in Japan.

Okay you gave me a good laugh.

 

[eddfromtheriver]

Some used games shops announced they're currently not accepting Xbox One trade-ins.
(They'll still take software though).

Lol... so you buy it, you keep it?

Are they selling xboxes or eternal salvation by jehova?
And I see what... 7 employees and no customers in those pictures, how much money are they losing doing that.
edit: no wait one guy looks like he could be a shopper, the guy in the seat playing the racing game.

That's kinda sad...

 

[ProfessorMoran]

They have a better chance because there are no competition and Microsoft is not just grabbing niche games, and rushed next gen games that bomb, or spending money for partner ships with no marketing, with the competition, even early PS3, kicking their butts with more highy received (japanese) games, the Wii pulling in pretty much the rest of whatever audience was left.

Does that mean they will win? Maybe, maybe not, but they have a better chance of keeping up at least. I can see wii U and Ps4 falling to the 1k easily around 2016 at the current pacing. It could be a sales comparison such as: Xbox One: 2 million, PS4: 4.5 Million, Wii U: 7 million. The fact those numbers are not to crazy just shows how bad it currently is over there and how no consoles are moving. When everything is static, that's probably the best chance.

Wait... Joke post? I can never tell.

That is BEYOND fantasy land-level wishful thinking considering the xbone won't even have the upper hand in any of the major territories to convince third party Japanese developers to support the platform.

 

[florin3k3]

LMAO!! I'm working and I actually laughed out loud. This is too funny.

I'm at home and I woke the baby up

 

[PerZona]

I still can't comprehend why would MS's investors allow the Xbone to be released in Japan. They are losing a lot of money because of Japan, the 360 bombed so hard there and they have spent so much money last gen to court Japanese developers for exclusive or timed exclusive JRPGs.

And look at the Xbone launch in Japan, the sales is gonna be abysmal. This is like the worst launch day I had ever seen for a console, and that is including the 360. I believe the 360 did much better. Not even exclusive JRPGs or Scalebound can save the Xbone in Japan.

 

[Nightengale]

I still can't comprehend why would MS's investors allow the Xbone to be released in Japan. They are losing a lot of money because of Japan, the 360 bombed so hard there and they have spent so much money last gen to court Japanese developers for exclusive or timed exclusive JRPGs.

And look at the Xbone launch in Japan, the sales is gonna be abysmal. This is like the worst launch day I had ever seen for a console, and that is including the 360. I believe the 360 did much better. Not even exclusive JRPGs or Scalebound can save the Xbone in Japan.

As long as you don't invest any real amount of money into marketing, infrastructure, support, etc, there's no real loss in shipping to a country with low sales.

I mean, it's not like MS is opening up stores there or anything.

 

[Verendus]

PS4 is struggling because it has no games.

It's good to see people are slowly beginning to accept the truth.

 

[LOLCats]

Exactly

 

[PerZona]

As long as you don't invest any real amount of money into marketing, infrastructure, support, etc, there's no real loss in shipping to a country with low sales.

I mean, it's not like MS is opening up stores there or anything.

I believe that they paid big bucks to Japanese developers last gen for developing JRPGs so that their console can sell well. Regarding marketing, I've been to Japan many times and I always see quite a few 360 advertisment plastered around, like in Akihabara's Yodobashi Camera's escalator areas and so on. But in the games department, there's always nobody in the Xbox section with ton of consoles and games lying around. Which made me believe that Microsoft probably did a consignment deal with the game stores in Japan or something. And that's just really sad.

 

[Nightengale]

It's good to see people are slowly beginning to accept the truth.

I've always accepted the truth.

Japan isn't going to return to the golden age of games development. Japan is one+ years behind everyone else in console development. Japan is going to double down on the established when it comes to consoles, there will be little to no exciting 'new' stuff. Any new ideas will be on mobile/3DS, for as long as the 3DS last.

Once people accept the above, I think it's far easier to look forward to what's coming out of Japan instead of latching on to impossible hopes and dreams.

 

[Maximilian Kolbe]

And you guys said there were no Xbox fans in Japan.

Well i saw there are some die-hard fans in 2chan choose buy Destiny from US store instead just go buy the PS4 version

 

[Callibretto]

It's good to see people are slowly beginning to accept the truth.

just wondering, does ps4 literally have no/few games releases in japan or people simply mean no games that appeal to Japan? Because between retail game and digital games, I dont think ps4 had this problem in the west, game release are constant and I even start to build sone backlog from ps+ freebies.

does those digital games not get released in japan at all, or that they're irrelevant because japan are not interested?

 

[zoobzone]

Congrats on both the console and the TV. I must say that a console could not wish for a better airflow, air from all sides even though there's no intake on the bottom of the console.

How is the console with Japanese voice commands?

The console with Japanese voice commands works well, just as good as the English version. Although in the System Preference, it listed the Japanese voice commands as Beta.

 

[Nightengale]

just wondering, does ps4 literally have no/few games releases in japan or people simply mean no games that appeal to Japan? Because between retail game and digital games, I dont think ps4 had this problem in the west, game release are constant and I even start to build sone backlog from ps+ freebies.

does those digital games not get released in japan at all, or that they're irrelevant because japan are not interested?

A few factors.

Firstly, PS4 launched in February, missing out on Japan's ( and the west's) typical holiday seasons. So, games like CoD, AC4, etc, were not exciting/appealing to new console owners because they already bought the PS3 version of said games. On the exclusives side, Knack and KZ SF were not appealing games to the Japanese audience. Yakuza Ishin was good game, but Yakuza spin-offs have always done worse than mainline, and being a cross-gen launch title limited its value. MGS GZ was a paid demo, pretty much.

If you look at the post-February landscape for Japanese games, it's very barren, even taking into account western games. A bulk of the releases were for PS3/Vita/3DS, and western games were... Watch_Dogs, Diablo 3, inFamous, TLoUR. The past few months were terrible as far as software is concerned all around, because even the western games weren't the kind of titles that did well in Japan. ( and TLoU was a port) And the Japanese games releasing in-between are stuff like late Musou ports and all that.

We're coming up to the holidays now, and in terms of Japanese games, it's pretty awful. Omega Quintet, Pyscho Break, Guilty Gear, etc. The bright side is that the compelling western release are in this time frame, so CoD, etc, should help somewhat, but it still needs compelling stuff on the Japanese side.

It's terrible, no two ways around it.

 

[Neuromancer]

Having such a good time with the Xbox so far. Decided to upgrade my TV today as well.

I was also given this small fan while strolling through Akiba earlier.

Thanks for all the reports and pictures. Even though I like to tease I was very much interested in the reception over there.

 

[Myshkin]

Japan isn't going to return to the golden age of games development. Japan is one+ years behind everyone else in console development. Japan is going to double down on the established when it comes to consoles, there will be little to no exciting 'new' stuff. Any new ideas will be on mobile/3DS, for as long as the 3DS last.

Even the PS3 is getting exciting 'new' stuff.
"Have you seen Yandere Hell?"

 

[Donos]

And you guys said there were no Xbox fans in Japan.

Daaamn. Post of the day.

 

[KongRudi]

Wrong. With the exception of Japan, the most popular games around the SEA regions are the same exact games western gamers love. CoD, GTA, AssCreed, FIFA, etc. The difference is that we're also highly receptive to games that are more Japanese-oriented, like Monster Hunter, Final Fantasy, etc.

Japan is part of Asia, and it's the biggest market in Asia.
For games, China is another big place, and 30% of the PC-market is domestic.

Asia as a whole in at an infancy when it comes to competitive development of AAA console games. You'll know this if you played Korean or Chinese developed games. There's some gems, and they can do visually impressive games, but a lot of them are janky and comes nowhere close to the most polished games from Japanese/western publishers.

To do well in the Asian PC-scene, you need to localise the games in English. Chinese alone won't work, because a large part of SEA's gaming community plays their PC games in English, not Chinese.

I've played several Korean games, when they were localized.
NCSoft is the biggest south korean publisher, they have several MMO's launching in Korea a year before the west. Runs perfectly fine, compared to western/japaneese MMO's, in my experience.

China is the largest online game market in the world, and several asian only games have/had million+ users, like Zengtu Online, and Fantasy Westward Juoney (based upon Journey to the west), especially MMO's are often non-english releases viable.
Microtransactions came from this market.

So what you're saying is that MS, in chasing after the small Asian market, should damage the competitiveness of their exclusives by making them for PC too?

But they aren't competitive there, and make litle effort to become competitive. :-/
I'm saying I think they would become much more succesfull if they tried to grow a larger presence - and a fanbase - via getting their own studios actually making content aimed for that market on a regular basis.

If also releasing some titles on PC is what it takes to get eventual new asian studios bleed less money in order to grow and make it worthwhile, they would probably be much better off in the long run.

 

[tsumineko]

I guess the Akihabara stores would have a lot of stock. My local electronics store had the Xbone consoles and only 1 game in stock, Dead Rising. It was at a Tsutaya. Only one place set aside on the rack for Xbone games.

 

[FeiRR]

I was also given this small fan while strolling through Akiba earlier.

I see they solved overheating problems.

 

[Vestax]

And you guys said there were no Xbox fans in Japan.

Haha...touché.

 

[wastedyears]

I'm saying I think they would become much more succesfull if they tried to grow a larger presence - and a fanbase - via getting their own studios actually making content aimed for that market on a regular basis.

I agree. But Microsoft will probably never do that, not in the long term, anyway. Instead MS will keep making the types of games that Microsoft wants to make, and expect the Asian (and worldwide) player base to adapt to those types of games, instead of MS adapting and making games that meet the wants and expectations of the Asian (and worldwide) market.

 

[travisbickle]

He's back

 

[Days like these...]

A few factors.

Firstly, PS4 launched in February, missing out on Japan's ( and the west's) typical holiday seasons. So, games like CoD, AC4, etc, were not exciting/appealing to new console owners because they already bought the PS3 version of said games. On the exclusives side, Knack and KZ SF were not appealing games to the Japanese audience. Yakuza Ishin was good game, but Yakuza spin-offs have always done worse than mainline, and being a cross-gen launch title limited its value. MGS GZ was a paid demo, pretty much.

I'm not sure I buy the whole 'missed the holidays' excuse. I mean it's been how many years since the ps 3 launched and people have been antcipating the launch of the ps 4 but because it didn't launch during the holidays it didn't sell very well? It sure didn't affect Sony in the west holidays be damned!

 

[Nightengale]

I'm not sure I buy the whole 'missed the holidays' excuse. I mean it's been how many years since the ps 3 launched and people have been antcipating the launch of the ps 4 but because it didn't launch during the holidays it didn't sell very well? It sure didn't affect Sony in the west holidays be damned!

It's not so much an excuse but rather a factor that minimises its week-on-week momentum.

It's a very, very minor factor at the end of the day.

 

[d9b]

He's back

Nice!

 

[NolbertoS]

He's back

Can't tell if its real or photoshopped. GAF quality JPEGs are too real . that guy shoukd be given a lifetime supply of Xbone games for putting up with marketing shenanigans.

 

[simplythebest]

Having such a good time with the Xbox so far. Decided to upgrade my TV today as well.

I was also given this small fan while strolling through Akiba earlier.

it's about damn time

 

[ReaperXL7]

I'm not a sales gaf guy and I wasn't sure if this was a thread yet

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/poor-start-for-xbox-one-sales-in-japan/1100-6422224/

MS already had an uphill battle but that's pretty rough

 

[Banjo-Kazooie]

I'm not a sales gaf guy and I wasn't sure if this was a thread yet

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/poor-start-for-xbox-one-sales-in-japan/1100-6422224/

MS already had an uphill battle but that's pretty rough

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=892190