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[SenjutsuSage]

As ridiculous as this sounds, I guess I can see that. This game clearly had a huge investment put into it, but we can pretty much guarantee that they will be making a follow up thanks to how well this game was received, both critically and at retail. So future followups should have even higher sales potential, barring some unforeseen circumstance.

You can't blame some for being hesitant to pull the trigger after the last couple Tomb Raider games though.

 

[XiaNaphryz]

What does this mean? Is this what happens when retailers buy full price games from SQ, then cut prices and SE has to pay them back the price cut deficit?

Pretty much every retail product has a line on their P&L to account for price protection just in case. Which is why I always cringe every time someone says selling to retailers is the same as selling to end customers because "they already got their money from the sale to the store."

Eh. Doesn't publisher get its money when it ships game to retailer? So S-E has got its money for those 3.4 million shipped games? Of course in the future retailers will be wary of S-E titles if the actual sales are way less than the shipped numbers.

Like this post! And no, it doesn't work that way.

 

[SScorpio]

I have been waiting for Tomb Raider to drop on Steam but as far as I can tell it hasn't. Thanks to this thread I checked Amazon and it is $35 download. Damn Steam price match this shit!

The game is Steamworks, just buy it from Amazon and activate it on your Steam account.

 

[Bruno MB]

I still can't believe they really managed to ship 3.6 million units of Hitman: Absolution, because that figure doesn't include digital sales.

It was made public that Hitman: Absolution sold 571.248 units in the UK market. I won't say its current LTD sales number in the US, but it's not considerably higher. Then in Japan of course didn't sell anything so how much could it have sold in other European countries and minor markets?

There must be literally tons of units sitting on shelves everywhere.

I very much doubt it has reached more than 2 million units sold to consumers.

 

[Persona86]

Sleeping Dogs deserves more, we need SD 2.

 

[Saty]

Analyst Billy Pidgeon:

"The AAA market is extremely competitive," he said. "Most of Square Enix's franchises are single player games, which are less popular than multiplayer. Square Enix has been a leader in that sector, but now faces stronger competition from multiple publishers, both large and small, including Bethesda, Capcom, Xseed, Atlus and Level 5.

"Square Enix's franchises are well established and require ever-higher production budgets to match and surpass past performance. The latest Hitman and Tomb Raider sold in the three million unit range and got Metacritic ratings above 8. Those numbers would rate as successful for JRPGs that earn more from vendors as exclusives and have manageable budgets.

"But for games with development budgets approaching $100 million to be truly profitable, ratings have to be above 8.5 and sales need to be in the five to ten million unit range."

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...player-ip-will-cause-problems-for-square-enix

 

[Mpl90]

Analyst Billy Pidgeon:

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...player-ip-will-cause-problems-for-square-enix

I'm scared and horrified.

 

[Lime]

Analyst Billy Pidgeon:

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...player-ip-will-cause-problems-for-square-enix

I'm going to be extremely salty come next gen. The amount of stagnation, risk-aversion, lowest common denominator bullshit is going to be off the charts.

 

[Jay Sosa]

Great, now they have enough money to make good RPGs again (lol)

wait, what? Those numbers are disappointing? wat?

 

[Wind's Howling]

What if Tomb Raider actually sells 3.5-4 million in the end? Is an average of 160 million still not profitable?

 

[bidguy]

Hope the Hitman franchise is safe.
Loved the evading sequences in Absolution.

 

[NotTheGuyYouKill]

I'm confused. Seems so absurd that TR, HT, and SD sales are being looked at unfavorably. 3.5 mil for TR and HT seem damn good. And 1.7 for a brand new IP also seems really good. Bizarre.

 

[Sn4ke_911]

Tomb Raider sets franchise sales record

 

[M-PG71C]

I'm confused. Seems so absurd that TR, HT, and SD sales are being looked at unfavorably. 3.5 mil for TR and HT seem damn good. And 1.7 for a brand new IP also seems really good. Bizarre.

Sad, eh? The industry is rapidly moving towards a model that will become unsustainable. Last-generation (PS2 era), I remember reading from various outlets that 500K was needed to break-even on a game, 1M+ is considered successful. Now we are up to 3 - 5 million to potentially break-even/become profitable, and even that is not ensured as SE (and many others) have already shown.

It be a damn miracle if Square-Enix even exists five years from now. Biggest shame of them all honestly. :/

 

[Heart Attack]

Tomb Raider sets franchise sales record

no sales figures were given in that "story". Also, for the millionth time, Tomb Raider didn't sell 3.4. million copies, at most they were shipped.

 

[LuCkymoON]

Not a chance. It's utter bollocks.
http://www.metacritic.com/faq#item3

They are the Dow Jones of the video game industry.

 

[DR2K]

no sales figures were given in that "story". Also, for the millionth time, Tomb Raider didn't sell 3.4. million copies, at most they were shipped.

You do realize that they sell copies to stores?

 

[grimshawish]

You do realize that they sell copies to stores?

SE complained about having to buy back unsold copies to western retailers in their last report...soo...

Also it was expected to sell. It failed to meet 3.4 million.

 

[LuCkymoON]

Square needs to make a Final Fantasy monster hunter-esque rip off.

 

[Chris1964]

You do realize that they sell copies to stores?

Don't bold when you don't understand how publishers and retailers work.

 

[Net_Wrecker]

Can't say I feel bad for Hitman or Tomb Raider. Both games went out of their way to reach "new audiences" leaving old fans in the dust, and I'm really not a fan of that practice. If both actually stayed stayed true to what the franchises were and failed it would be devastating, but maybe lower than expected sales will force them to go back to their roots next time around. Sleeping Dogs not selling more, on the other hand, is a travesty. Shame on consumers for that one.

But game budgets and expectations have gotten absurd. Whether it's the insane "cinematic" scripting design, or pushing for graphical prowess, or the marketing costs getting crazy, something has to change. I fear for what the industry will look like in 5 years.

 

[DR2K]

Don't bold when you don't understand how publishers and retailers work.

You should relay that to publisher and their reports.

The item is sold to retailers from publisher, is it not? There are other nuances involved with sell through and buy back for unsold copies, if you want to go indepth with their relationship then please feel free to.

 

[Canis lupus]

Can't say I feel bad for Hitman or Tomb Raider. Both games went out of their way to reach "new audiences" leaving old fans in the dust, and I'm really not a fan of that practice. If both actually stayed stayed true to what the franchises were and failed it would be devastating, but maybe low sales will force them to go back to their roots next time around. Sleeping Dogs not selling more, on the other hand, is a travesty. Shame on consumers for that one.

But game budgets and expectations have gotten absurd. Whether it's the insane "cinematic" scripting design, or pushing for graphical prowess, or the marketing costs getting crazy, something has to change. I fear for what the industry will look like in 5 years.

TR and Hitman sales seem strong, how are they low?

 

[evangd007]

I'm confused. Seems so absurd that TR, HT, and SD sales are being looked at unfavorably. 3.5 mil for TR and HT seem damn good. And 1.7 for a brand new IP also seems really good. Bizarre.

It's shipped (aka sold to retailers), not sell-through. That's why the figure doesn't include digital. There's probably a ton of copies left on shelves and many sold at clearance pricing. It didn't take long for Hitman to get cut to $40 and then again to $30.

Couple that with the fact that Square Enix is reckless enough to give their Eidos studios what are effectively blank checks for budget and then half again or more for marketing, and you have what we have here.

 

[MrMephistoX]

Most businesses would kill to have a 3.4 million unit selling product this is getting ridiculous no wonder so many studios are going under and the industry is homogenizing: hate to be doom and gloom but this is getting to be an unsustainable marketplace.

 

[Net_Wrecker]

TR and Hitman sales seem strong, how are they low?

I meant "Lower than expected," not actual low sales. My mistake.

 

[Acorn]

Hitman isn't great, but tomb raider seems decent enough from the 5 or so hours I've played.

 

[Psychoward]

That's the exact opposite order the sales should be going in.

 

[OldAsUrSock]

Two things that really scare me about this topic:

1. The big amount of units sold some titles like Tomb Raider have to meet in order to be considered profitable. This doesn't bode well for this upcoming next gen era where development costs have nowhere to go but up.

2. The importance publishers are placing on Metacritc =/

This is not true.

• Game engines are making game development faster than this gen.

• Devs will not need to spend as much time optimizing for memory because of the much larger amounts.

With sony saying no games will be higher than $60 must mean game development costs are probably going to stay nearly the same.

 

[jcm]

Don't bold when you don't understand how publishers and retailers work.

But he's right. Publishers sell games to retailers, and that's what they report in their earnings.

 

[OutToLunch]

But he's right. Publishers sell games to retailers, and that's what they report in their earnings.

They use both. Typically whichever helps their narrative the most.

 

[Fahrenheit]

Game developers need to get there costs under control. Look at Witcher 2 what did that cost to make? 12 million? What did these games cost to make?

 

[mclem]

This is not true.

• Game engines are making game development faster than this gen.

I'm not really seeing it, at least as yet. There's certainly scope for improvement, but it does look like the bottlenecks and expense still exist at the resource mastering phase - and it's quite possible some companies will take the increased RAM as an reason to produce even more resources than they did in the previous one. Our artists on the PS2 - with the pittance of RAM that thing had - *loved* to pack in as many textures as they could squeeze in.

• Devs will not need to spend as much time optimizing for memory because of the much larger amounts.

That's not how it works. Well, let me rephrase that: It's not how it *should* work. A memory budget is written at the start of development determining what space is available in the worst-case scenario, and then the game is designed within those constraints. It's not a case of giving the artists free reign, and *then* trying to make it fit.

That said, it's not perfect, and occasionally the budget has to shift one way or the other, and savings need to be found; I've done that job myself on several titles. It's a job of one experienced programmer or one experienced designer (or both!) - depending on whether you're making savings by cutting content out of a level or optimising the code - for a day or so, that's it.

It's a pain to do, and it's a bit dependent on exactly how the project is structured but it's not *particularly* time-consuming.

 

[Mr.Wreckless]

Expecting to sell 3.4 million in one month is crazy for almost every game that isnt a CoD or Halo and this game didnt even release during the holiday season.

People are saying the problem is that Tomb Raider wasnt a real Tomb Raider. That wasnt the issue as a normal Tomb Raider wouldnt do those numbers now either. The problem was the sales projection.

 

[jcm]

They use both. Typically whichever helps their narrative the most.

Sure, they are always lookin for the best spin. In general though, if we get a worldwide number from a publisher or console manufacturer, we are getting a sell-in number. And that is always how the revenue is getting booked.

 

[sflufan]

Game developers need to get there costs under control. Look at Witcher 2 what did that cost to make? 12 million? What did these games cost to make?

THE WITCHER 2 WAS MADE IN POLAND!
THE WITCHER 2 WAS MADE IN POLAND!
THE WITCHER 2 WAS MADE IN POLAND!

I wish I had a dollar for every time I've had to rectify this comparison.

 

[Fahrenheit]

THE WITCHER 2 WAS MADE IN POLAND!
THE WITCHER 2 WAS MADE IN POLAND!
THE WITCHER 2 WAS MADE IN POLAND!

I wish I had a dollar for every time I've had to rectify this comparison.

Well you wouldn't get a dollar from me being you didn't really rectify anything. All you did was type in caps 3 times what most of us know. So I'll ask the obvious question, what does it being made in Poland have to do with anything?

 

[RedAssedApe]

Tomb Raider probably would have sold less as a "normal" Tomb Raider.

 

[sflufan]

Well you wouldn't get a dollar from me being you didn't really rectify anything. All you did was type in caps 3 times what most of is know. So I'll ask the obvious question, what does it being made in Poland have to do with anything?

There is a substantive difference between the economies of the US/Western Europe and the economy of Poland. As a result, the cost of labor in the US/Western Europe is higher than that of Poland. Thus, a labor-intensive output such as a videogame will naturally cost far less if developed in Poland than in the US/Western Europe.

In order to truly compare The Witcher 2 to other titles, you'd have to adjust the Polish labor cost in some way (using Purchasing Power Parity?) to match those of the US/Western Europe. Only then can you make a fair comparison.

 

[Fahrenheit]

There is a substantive difference between the economies of the US/Western Europe and the economy of Poland. As a result, the cost of labor in the US/Western Europe is higher than that of Poland. Thus, a labor-intensive output such as a videogame will naturally cost far less if developed in Poland than in the US/Western Europe.

In order to truly compare The Witcher 2 to other titles, you'd have to adjust the Polish labor cost to match those of the US/Western Europe. Only then can you make a fair comparison.

Agreed but 4 times? 5 times? 6 times the amount? Game development has become so bloated, so many redundant jobs. Well if it's anything like the rest of white collar jobs

 

[Yasae]

There is a substantive difference between the economies of the US/Western Europe and the economy of Poland. As a result, the cost of labor in the US/Western Europe is higher than that of Poland. Thus, a labor-intensive output such as a videogame will naturally cost far less if developed in Poland than in the US/Western Europe.

In order to truly compare The Witcher 2 to other titles, you'd have to adjust the Polish labor cost in some way (using Purchasing Power Parity?) to match those of the US/Western Europe. Only then can you make a fair comparison.

Does a lower labor cost result in a lower comparable quality of life for the developers? That matters far more.

 

[RagnarokX]

Expecting to sell 3.4 million in one month is crazy for almost every game that isnt a CoD or Halo and this game didnt even release during the holiday season.

People are saying the problem is that Tomb Raider wasnt a real Tomb Raider. That wasnt the issue as a normal Tomb Raider wouldnt do those numbers now either. The problem was the sales projection.

A lot of people aren't buying the game and waiting for price drops because they turned Tomb Raider into a run of the mill cinematic shooter with very dumbed down platforming and puzzles and because of the narrative. I rented the game from redbox instead of buying it. If they had made something more pleasing to Tomb Raider fans, and fans of challenging gameplay in general, they could have probably done better by pleasing both markets. Survival Instinct would ensure that the challenge-averse wouldn't get frustrated.

Tomb Raider has been mishandled ever since Eidos forced Core to drive the series into the ground. With the level of marketing Square brought to this game they could have revitalized the franchise without turning it into another shooter by rebooting it without destroying everything it stood for. So far it seems that changing the game into a shooter was for naught anyway.

 

[sangreal]

Does a lower labor cost result in a lower comparable quality of life for the developers? That matters far more.

I don't see how that matters at all, unless you plan to lay off all the US/W-EU developers for Polish developers. That could be a viable plan, but I don't think it is what the original poster was suggesting. Nobody is bashing CD Projekt for what they pay their developers.

 

[SweetTeddie]

Is it possible that TR was just a bloated project that cost a lot to make? Crystal Dynamics released Guardian of Light in 2010, which I can't imagine took THAT much time/manpower to make. So it's possible that the TR reboot took too long to make, had inflated dev costs and that's why SE isn't happy with 3M sales.

 

[Oersted]

Tomb Raider sets franchise sales record

Nextgen is going to be interesting.

 

[Rhazer Fusion]

If over 3 millions sales for any game is considered a failure, next generation will spell doom for everyone.

 

[Spirit of Jazz]

Sleeping Dogs deserved better.

 

[CrunchyB]

Agreed but 4 times? 5 times? 6 times the amount? Game development has become so bloated, so many redundant jobs. Well if it's anything like the rest of white collar jobs

Generally, Polish wages aren't that much lower than the wages in other western countries. I'm just guessing, but I think there's still a surplus of workers in mainland Europe. Supply and demand. Labour is still available there, whereas in other areas companies are paying a premium to hire the last few available developers.

 

[Sissel]

If the next Tomb Raider is "dudebro'd" and has forced 2-4 player co-op for the campaign because of this, I'm blowing up Square Enix.




well not really but i'll be pissed. Give me a Tomb Raider sequel with 3 years of development time please. ;(

 

[semiconscious]

I'm going to be extremely salty come next gen. The amount of stagnation, risk-aversion, lowest common denominator bullshit is going to be off the charts.

yep. maybe the biggest reason i'm not excited about it whatsoever at this point...