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[Door2Dawn]

Star Wars: The Old Republic could potentially miss this year and launch in January 2012, EA revealed on its earnings call yesterday, but regardless of when the game finally ships EA remains supremely confident in BioWare's first-ever MMO. EA is betting big on the title, reportedly investing $80 million in development alone, according to Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter.

"The contribution from the Star Wars MMO is significant. Under the terms of its deal with LucasArts, EA is required to pay a royalty, but was required to front all of the development, marketing and distribution costs, as well as the costs of building out servers for the game. We estimate that LucasArts’ share is 33% of revenues, AFTER EA recoups its investment in game development. Given that the game was in development for over four years, with an estimated 200 full-time developers working on it, we estimate that EA’s investment exceeds $80 million," he said.

"Fortunately for investors, the company expenses R&D spending, meaning that its revenues on sales of the Star Wars MMO DVD will be pure profit. EA will be required to spend marketing dollars on the game, and we estimate total manufacturing, marketing and distribution spending will total around $20 million, meaning that at two million units sold, EA will generate $60 million of operating profit on the DVD sales."

EA has said before that it doesn't need a ton of subscribers to actually make a profit on The Old Republic, and Pachter echoed this sentiment.

"We estimate that EA will cover its direct operating costs and break even at 500,000 subscribers (this is exceedingly conservative, and the actual figure is probably closer to 350,000), meaning that with 1.5 million paying subscribers, EA will have 1 million profitable subs. We estimate that the incremental operating cost for each subscriber above breakeven is around $5 per month (also quite conservative), so if the revenue split is 33% to LucasArts ($5 per subscriber per month), EA will be left with $5 per subscriber per month in operating profit. At 1 million profitable subscribers over the last six months of its fiscal year, EA should generate $30 million in operating profit from subscribers."

Wowza. EA is definitely betting big on this project.

 

[antonz]

80 million isnt that bad really. Less than I thought

 

[Chinese Electric Batman]

What a waste.

 

[Mama Robotnik]

Jesus Christ, how successful are they expecting this to be!? How many subscribers, for how long, will they need to recoup the $80 million dollars development cost alone?

Maybe I'll eat my words one day, but I think they're mad.

I suppose I'm biased though, cos I just wanted my KOTOR 3 and don't play MMORPGs.

 

[Jerk]

80 million isnt that bad really. Less than I thought

Development only.

Add in the marketing budget...

 

[RoboPlato]

80 million isnt that bad really. Less than I thought

Yeah, I was thinking it was over $100 Million by this point.

 

[ElectricBlue187]

2012 now. God this game is never coming out. Remember just a short while ago they were aiming for Spring 2011

 

[Nirolak]

Development only.

Add in the marketing budget...

Apparently that's estimated at $20 million.

This is still only 1/3rd of the $300 million figure [Nintex] keeps trolling with though.

 

[DemiMatt]

Development only.

Add in the marketing budget...

Which is usually another 50-100million . . . in movies anyways.

Maybe they should spent more time making the game as awesome as the trailers looked instead of an underwhelming mess.

 

[SolidSnakex]

Development only.

Add in the marketing budget...

Yeah, but some former employee claimed that EA was spending 300m on its development. So that's why 80m really isn't all that bad.

 

[Scum]

That doesn't include marketing as well, does it? Oh wait, what am I thinking...

 

[C.Dark.DN]

Rift was 50 million in development?

 

[Zeal]

if this flops...

man, oh man.

 

[antonz]

2012 now. God this game is never coming out. Remember just a short while ago they were aiming for Spring 2011

I doubt it will launch in 2012. Im expecting September or October the latest. EA is delibertly playing around with the timeline at this point to not give anything away. They have already said the big blowout on info will be at E3

 

[Nirolak]

Rift was 50 million in development?

As was DC Universe Online.

APB hit $100 million though.

 

[Door2Dawn]

2012 now. God this game is never coming out. Remember just a short while ago they were aiming for Spring 2011

Nah this thing is coming out this year. EA is pushing pretty hard for them to release something.

 

[Chairman Yang]

The $20M estimated marketing/distribution/manufacturing budget seems a bit low to me.

 

[1-D_FTW]

I honestly thought they'd sunk in 200 million by now. 80 million seems like the low end for the cost of doing business in the MMO space. Efficient development if true.

 

[Zeona]

So profitability is more or less guaranteed, good for them.

 

[NullPointer]

80 million isnt that bad really. Less than I thought

Same here.

 

[Mister_Bubbles]

Development only.

Add in the marketing budget...

Oof. And those shiny CGI trailers can't be cheap...

 

[antonz]

Even factoring in the estimated 20 million for marketing etc 100 million for the scale of the project is really not all that bad.

Everything is voiced and the game itself has changed a ton since its way too early to be shown reveal.

It has come a long ways since it was first shown. I would be shocked if it only managed to move 2 million units.

 

[eastmen]

The $20M estimated marketing/distribution/manufacturing budget seems a bit low to me.

Depends on when it launches honestly. If they are able to make a September release they wont need much marketing. Star wars hype will be the highest its been since the prequels due to the blurays releasing.


If I was bioware /ea i'd try my hardest to get out in sept / october and include a trailer for the game with the blurays and a free weeks play or something with the bluray discs

 

[Clott]

Please delay it until the game is really really done and polished, nothing can be half assed about this game, time and time again it is proven that an MMO has only it's launch to shine and grab a hold of people, if not they will simply go back to WoW.

Age of Conan was one of those could have been great MMO's but half the promised features were no where to be found at launch, The Matrix online was also half done at launch. One is barely surviving and the other dead. Bioware and EA have one shot at this, better make it count.

 

[WillyFive]

Ouch.

I hope it's good it works.

 

[antonz]

Depends on when it launches honestly. If they are able to make a September release they wont need much marketing. Star wars hype will be the highest its been since the prequels due to the blurays releasing.


If I was bioware /ea i'd try my hardest to get out in sept / october and include a trailer for the game with the blurays and a free weeks play or something with the bluray discs

This is what I mostly expect. If they launch in the window of the Blu Rays they can jump on the hype train and share marketing

 

[Oppo]

I have this really horrible feeling that this game is going to tank hard, and take a big chunk of BioWare with it.

And when it does, people will speak of the "Star Wars MMO curse" in hushed tones, and seal the source code away in a vault for 1000 years.

 

[Zeal]

So profitability is more or less guaranteed, good for them.

what is this stupid post

 

[Grinchy]

Well, good luck to EA. It does sound like a pretty normal amount for a brand new MMO, but it also sure is a lot of money.

 

[Tomat]

if this flops...

man, oh man.

I'm almost hoping it will just to see the reactions. But then I try and remind myself that it's not good to be like that.

 

[lockload]

I think its doomed to failure, cant see enough people getting it

 

[TheRagnCajun]

I honestly thought they'd sunk in 200 million by now. 80 million seems like the low end for the cost of doing business in the MMO space. Efficient development if true.

That remains to be seen. I think they have spent a good chunk of that money of narrative. Here's to hoping the gameplay holds up.

 

[Sol..]

80 sounds about right. I wonder how much they have spent thus far being a major fucking tease.

 

[speedpop]

I wonder how many people actually read the article - specifically the doom & gloom naysayers.

 

[eastmen]

This is what I mostly expect. If they launch in the window of the Blu Rays they can jump on the hype train and share marketing

yea i got to play at pax east and its amazing , but it really needs a graphical over haul. It looks dated for 2011 and it will only be more so in 2012.

They said dx 10/11 wont come till later , hopefully if it is delayed till 2012 dx 10/11 makes it for launch

 

[DSN2K]

it will do well enough to be considered a success...but I dont think it will do massive numbers mind.

 

[flyinpiranha]

Dang, we're talking Shenmue money at this point.

 

[eastmen]

it will do well enough to be considered a success...but I dont think it will do massive numbers mind.

4-5 million players world wide is my best guess. Its going to apeal to alot of people , the story in the game is amazing and so alot of single player rpg nuts will move to it , the combat is solid and the world is nice to explore.

I don't think any game will hit wow's numbers ever again not even wow

 

[Vilam]

That actually sounds surprisingly low to me. $80 million on a major Star Wars MMO that would be fairly safe selling 2 million copies and then making monthly revenue back on a base dwindling from that number sounds like a fairly safe bet to me.

 

["God's Beard!"]

Dang, we're talking Shenmue money at this point.

Recouping that money on a console that never made it to 15 million installed versus a PC MMO with subscriber fees is a very different thing.

 

[Vilam]

yea i got to play at pax east and its amazing , but it really needs a graphical over haul. It looks dated for 2011 and it will only be more so in 2012.

They said dx 10/11 wont come till later , hopefully if it is delayed till 2012 dx 10/11 makes it for launch

Just like WoW looks dated amirite? Both games look great for the genre imho, MMOs are all about art direction.

 

[Alex]

That's not bad at all, if they are set to recoup a lot of it off the box sales alone then half decent subscriptions (which they'd probably get on the franchise alone) would carry the rest very quickly. While not a candidate for direct comparison, do keep in mind WoW pulls in well over 100 million a month for Blizzard. If they can snag 750k-1,000,000+ subs they'll be sitting very pretty.

But yeah, It's longevity is what to bring into question especially with EA and what Mythic did to their last MMO but it's not going to be some money burning bomb.

 

[DR3AM]

at least they are trying to do something different AND new with the mmo. and dont forget, this is star wars we are talking about here. ( not that it matters to me)

 

[Teknopathetic]

"at least they are trying to do something different AND new with the mmo. and dont forget, this is star wars we are talking about here. ( not that it matters to me)"


It's SWG all over again.

 

[RurouniZel]

I've always wondered, why do MMOs cost SO much more to make than standard games? Is it the servers?

 

[Spire]

That's not nearly as much as I thought.

"at least they are trying to do something different AND new with the mmo. and dont forget, this is star wars we are talking about here. ( not that it matters to me)"


It's SWG all over again.

Not exactly. SWG actually was doing something different and new, TOR is just WoW in space with just enough new ideas to entice WoW drones. They're playing it pretty safe overall and not trying anything truly revolutionary.

 

[bounchfx]

I thought it was closer to $200. 80 for development, sure, but only 20 for Marketing? I don't buy that. I would imagine at least 50-60...

 

[Falagard]

That's not nearly as much as I thought.

Not exactly. SWG actually was doing something different and new, TOR is just WoW in space with just enough new ideas to entice WoW drones. They're playing it pretty safe overall and not trying anything truly revolutionary.

Me too, I would have guessed well over 100 million development costs.

 

[Nirolak]

I've always wondered, why do MMOs cost SO much more to make than standard games? Is it the servers?

The amount of content.

If people can beat all the content in your game quickly, they're not going to subscribe.

 

[Neki]

"at least they are trying to do something different AND new with the mmo. and dont forget, this is star wars we are talking about here. ( not that it matters to me)"


It's SWG all over again.

That was a good game before they screwed it up though.