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[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

Films are listed in order of worldwide predictions, but I'll give domestic guesses as well.

1. Spider-Man-Homecoming $400M/$1.05B

Of the comic-book films this summer, this is the one with the best online presence. Spider-Man, even with how poorly Sony handled the franchise, is still easily one of the most popular and iconic characters in the world. I think Civil War did a lot to repair the damage done, and we'll see this be the biggest film of the summer, domestically and worldwide.

2. Despicable Me 3 $245M/$1.00B

Minions was one of the worst major animated films I've seen in years, and it had some very rough legs for a kids movie. And you can tell that the audience reception to Minions was pretty weak overall based on how downplayed the yellow guys are in the trailer. Overseas figures tend not to wane at all even when domestic figures fall off a cliff for animated sequels, though, so this will still be massive WW.

3. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales $240M/$955M

This is another film that I've had a change of heart on lately. I've really dug the marketing, there's reports of this actually being a good Pirates film, and there's starting to play up the big return as well. I don't think it will be quite enough to grow from the last one, but it can stay roughly the same. Overseas is going to take a slight hit thanks to exchange rates, though.


4. Guardians of the Galaxy 2 $350M/$930M

If you had asked me a year ago, I would have said this was a $450M+ grosser in the making. You can easily make the case the first is the most well-regarded Marvel film to date, and the film is so separate from the rest of the MCU that a more casual audience could show up. But the closer we get, the more this feels like Iron Man 2 again. The reviews are better so I think it will outgross its predecessor unlike IM2, and see strong growth overseas.

5. Transformers: The Last Knight $170M/$840M

Age of Extinction declined $110M from Dark of the Moon, and had an even worse reception than it. Domestically, a good template would be Amazing Spider-Man -> Amazing Spider-Man 2; a similar fall from AoE puts this at $187M. The Last Knight faces even stiffer competition, and I'm not sure it will do nearly as well in China.


Purely domestically, I will go:

1. Spider-Man: Homecoming $400M
2. Guardians of the Galaxy 2 $350M
3. Wonder Woman: $250M
4. Despicable Me 2: $245M
5. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales $240M

Biggest flop: Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets



It will be exciting to see how wrong I am!

 

[kswiston]

In the spirit of fairness, anyone who wants to participate in the prediction portion of this thread needs to do so before Thursday at noon EST. We will start getting GotG 2 numbers from some overseas markets after that.

 

[inm8num2]

Domestic (top 10 for kicks) with my thoughts in quotes:

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 - $400M

Not much to say here. A safe bet.

2. Despicable Me 3 - $340M

DM2: 368M. Minions: 336M. Cars 3 two weeks before and no animated/kids movies until The Emoji Movie four weeks later. I'm tempted to put this at #1 and think it could top $400M.

3. Spider-Man: Homecoming - $325M

"Hey moviegoers, Robert Downey Jr. is in this!" the marketing campaign. Regardless, Spidey was a hit in Civil War and Homecoming opens alone. Should be comfortably in the top 3 unless Rothman did his best to ensure otherwise.

4. Wonder Woman - $245M

Comes out a week after Pirates but will be the main action/superhero feature for three weeks until Transformers. Seems like just getting a WW movie will be reason enough for this to do reasonably well. Plus, many considered WW a bright spot in BvS.

5. Transformers: The Last Knight - $230M

Solo opening and a two week buffer on both sides from big action movies (Mummy, Spidey). I'm probably overestimating the haul. Trans4mers did $245 domestic, down from $352M for Transform3rs. Still, it's summer movie comfort food.

6. Pirates of the Caribbean 5 - $225M

Feels like the wildcard among the big blockbusters. Comes out on Memorial Day weekend which helps. If The Mummy stinks Pirates could have decent legs while mainly competing with Wonder Woman.

7. Cars 3 - $220M

Cars 3 is sandwiched between Captain Underpants and Despicable Me 3 by two weeks in each direction. Underpants seems poised to be a modest success, but by the time Cars 3 comes out it won't be much competition. Unless Cars 3 is shit, I think it'll do better than most expect. It's the return of Pixar's best-selling toy franchise and, aside from Underpants, the first major animated/kids movie.

8. War for the Planet of the Apes - $200M

I want to put this higher, I really do. I love Rise and Dawn, and War looks great. Dawn made $200M releasing around the same time (mid-July), but it only had Trans4mers come out two weeks before then Lucy and Hercules two weeks later. War Apes has to contend with Spider-Man: Homecoming releasing one week before it and Dunkirk one week later.

9. Dunkirk - $165M

A conservative estimate. I don't think this can really break out even if it's amazing and gets universal acclaim. Trailers have seemed to underwhelm some people, and it's probably going to be over 2.5 hours long. That might put a squeeze on receipts. I'd love to be wrong.

10. Baywatch - $135M

Baywatch will be the main comedy feature for three weeks until Rough Night comes out. It has The Rock, loads of beautiful people in beachwear, and no lack of 90s nostalgia. Baywatch can make decent bank even if it sucks.

Worldwide:

1. Despicable Me 3
2. Transformers: The Last Knight
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
4. Pirates of the Caribbean 5
5. Spider-Man: Homecoming

Flops:

Sadly King Arthur (which I think looks fun, plus it has my boy Chuck Hunnam who I hoped could have a mild breakout coming off The Lost City of Z), and possibly Valerian (which also looks fun and has a good all-around cast but might not have the leading star power to push its marketing). I'm torn on The Emoji Movie. I think it can hit $100M simply because there isn't any other major animated/family release around it, and it might have "looks incredibly stupid but my kids will think it's funny" appeal.

Other thoughts (domestic-oriented):

• I always try to remind myself genre offerings and release dates sometimes matter most, as my interspersed comments suggest.
• Picks 5-8 feel interchangeable.
• Rough Night or especially The House (Ferrell, Poehler) could be a breakout mid-summer comedy and sneak into that top 10.
• Outside of MI films Cruise struggles with box office, and The Mummy doesn't look very good. I'm thinking The Mummy might suffer in the shadow of Pirates and WW.