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Trump addresses nation on Afghanistan strategy

So "victory" actually means perpetual occupation. Waiting on the Afghan government to stabilize may as well be just that. No end in sight

Realistically that is what our objective is now to escape Afghanistan. The occupation doesn't have to only be us though we can slowly change hands. If we leave immediately it will be a repeat of this in Iraq 2014:

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sazzy

Member
i just realized that 2996 people died on 9.11 and 2400 US soldiers have died in the resulting afghan war...
 

Drakeon

Member
Realistically that is what our objective is now to escape Afghanistan. The occupation doesn't have to only be us though we can slowly change hands. If we leave immediately it will be a repeat of this in Iraq 2014:

Hah! I love the word immediately here, it implies that we haven't been there for 16 years.

To be clear, I don't know of a good option for Afghanistan, I'm not sure how you win. But staying there longer is also kinda crazy given we've been there for 16 years. Pretty soon we'll have people serving in Afghanistan who are younger than the War in Afghanistan.
 

Betty

Banned
15 years to figure out stability is a very good way to describe this. Policies obviously change whenever we have a new administration so many things have been tried. For the last 16 years we have always said the Taliban "must be destroyed." Thats keeping them all bunched together. Trump repeated that tonight but added something his predecessors have not. In the speech tonight its clear that we've shifted in some ways by acknowledging that there is a possible political solution with certain elements of the Taliban.

Look at this quote from tonight:


This is big if there is to be stability. Political power for the Taliban to work together with their fellow Afghans would solve some of the problems they have been demanding since the formation of the new Afghan government.

Stability is not something easy to define. I just described a political situation but there are also socio-economic issues here and trying to stop radicalization.

And to achieve that requires finesse and reasoned thinking.

So don't expect it under Trump.
 

SRG01

Member
USA had 15 years to figure out stability

We refuse to fire our self for a job clearly not done to satisfactory

It's not only the US's job to grant them stability. Afghanistan is so incredibly impoverished and corrupt (and tribe-oriented) that everyone else has to pick up their socks for them.

Or to put it another way, it isn't for a lack of effort that Afghanistan is still a failed state.
 
Hah! I love the word immediately here, it implies that we haven't been there for 16 years.

To be clear, I don't know of a good option for Afghanistan, I'm not sure how you win. But staying there longer is also kinda crazy given we've been there for 16 years. Pretty soon we'll have people serving in Afghanistan who are younger than the War in Afghanistan.

I agree with you that staying there is crazy. By immediately I mean without any plan to help the Afghanis to safeguard their new government and institutions. 16 years is a long time but also 16 years involves lots of policy changes under two different administrations, new developments in the region, new adversaries (ISIS), failed elections in Afghanistan, etc.

I do think that allowing Afghanistan to quickly topple over (lets say a year) if we leave will definitely create more problems (foreign policy wise) than solve and inevitably force younger people as you say to fight there again.
 
Realistically that is what our objective is now to escape Afghanistan. The occupation doesn't have to only be us though we can slowly change hands. If we leave immediately it will be a repeat of this in Iraq 2014:

Yes but you see ... we've been there for over a decade and this post below isn't any more or less relevent now than it was then.

Where do you draw the line? Two decades? Three? Half century? We can't even fix corruption in our own government

It's not only the US's job to grant them stability. Afghanistan is so incredibly impoverished and corrupt (and tribe-oriented) that everyone else has to pick up their socks for them.

Or to put it another way, it isn't for a lack of effort that Afghanistan is still a failed state.
 
This war will last longer than the current administration (4 or 8 years). Just as Obama handed this war off, so will Trump.

Difference is Obama took the conflict and pushed the role of US forces as more of a peacekeeping mission and exercising soft power to aid the government. Trump is signaling (who knows if he actually will still hold the same plan tomorrow) that he is pushing to a more military centric approach while pulling away from the soft power and nation building that will help long term.

US presence in Afghanistan will like last a decade more or two but I don't think Trump's approach as he says it will ensure a more autonomous and stable Afghanistan than he inherited.
 

SRG01

Member
Yes but you see ... we've been there for over a decade and this post below isn't any more relevent now than it was then.

Where do you draw the line? Two decades? Three? Half century? We can't even fix corruption in our own government

I can foresee Afghanistan possibly stabilizing within the next 15 years if foreign powers are willing to sit down and talk -- it's at the center of too much geopolitical issues (pipelines, resources, terror, and so on) for the US to take on alone.
 
I can foresee Afghanistan possibly stabilizing within the next 15 years if foreign powers are willing to sit down and talk -- it's at the center of too much geopolitical issues (pipelines, resources, terror, and so on) for the US to take on alone.

So the tell me that (bit you) instead of giving me some militaristic yet nebulous victory metric.
 
Difference is Obama took the conflict and pushed the role of US forces as more of a peacekeeping mission and exercising soft power to aid the government. Trump is signaling (who knows if he actually will still hold the same plan tomorrow) that he is pushing to a more military centric approach while pulling away from the soft power and nation building that will help long term.

US presence in Afghanistan will like last a decade more or two but I don't think Trump's approach as he says it will ensure a more autonomous and stable Afghanistan than he inherited.

Trump will say one thing but he may make something else happen. The Chiefs of Staff have seen the lowing amount of casualties in the past few years as peacekeeping forces and I'm sure they will want to keep it the same, but in correlation with our soldiers being peacekeepers the areas under Taliban control have increased. We need a balance here.

I think his approach to India and Pakistan here is the nation building. He wants India to take the bill for nation building, which they've already proceeded to give billions to Afghanistan for that very reason.

I do think that the military approach is what he's using against the hardliners in the Taliban and we have to see what Pakistan does on it's side of the border but he did speak about bringing certain parts of the Taliban to a political settlement. There are several Taliban commanders who have been in negotiations with the Afghan government in the past 16 years but the US refused in the past due to "all Taliban being the same." The tribes must come to a political agreement but that is still a possibility.
 

SRG01

Member
So the tell me that (bit you) instead of giving me some militaristic yet nebulous victory metric.

I don't even understand what this is saying...

But anyhow, the basis for success in Afghanistan should hinge on a few things, namely the formation of a relatively-stable central Afghan government (debatable, but it's up), a self-sufficient civilian military apparatus (somewhat done), and the cessation of insurgent and Taliban attacks on the government. I'm probably missing a few...

Unfortunately, the last one is the biggest as it directly interferes with the success of the other two.

Trump will say one thing but he may make something else happen. The Chiefs of Staff have seen the lowing amount of casualties in the past few years as peacekeeping forces and I'm sure they will want to keep it the same, but in correlation with our soldiers being peacekeepers the areas under Taliban control have increased. We need a balance here.

I think his approach to India and Pakistan here is the nation building. He wants India to take the bill for nation building, which they've already proceeded to give billions to Afghanistan for that very reason.

I do think that the military approach is what he's using against the hardliners in the Taliban and we have to see what Pakistan does on it's side of the border but he did speak about bringing certain parts of the Taliban to a political settlement. There are several Taliban commanders who have been in negotiations with the Afghan government in the past 16 years but the US refused in the past due to "all Taliban being the same." The tribes must come to a political agreement but that is still a possibility.

How many tribal leaders will negotiate with the Taliban though? I was under the impression that neither like each other very much.
 
Trump will say one thing but he may make something else happen. The Chiefs of Staff have seen the lowing amount of casualties in the past few years as peacekeeping forces and I'm sure they will want to keep it the same, but in correlation with our soldiers being peacekeepers the areas under Taliban control have increased. We need a balance here.

I think his approach to India and Pakistan here is the nation building. He wants India to take the bill for nation building, which they've already proceeded to give billions to Afghanistan for that very reason.

I do think that the military approach is what he's using against the hardliners in the Taliban and we have to see what Pakistan does on it's side of the border but he did speak about bringing certain parts of the Taliban to a political settlement. There are several Taliban commanders who have been in negotiations with the Afghan government in the past 16 years but the US refused in the past due to "all Taliban being the same." The tribes must come to a political agreement but that is still a possibility.

There is good reason not for the US to be the ones negotiating with the Taliban (we have though on specific issues). That is to build up the institutional power of the government. Biggest charge the Taliban uses is claiming the Afghani government is a puppet state and therefore illegitimate. Again it's part of the nuances of soft power that Trump can't seemingly understand in a complex situation like Afghanistan.
 
There is good reason not for the US to be the ones negotiating with the Taliban (we have though on specific issues). That is to build up the institutional power of the government. Biggest charge the Taliban uses is claiming the Afghani government is a puppet state and therefore illegitimate. Again it's part of the nuances of soft power that Trump can't seemingly understand in a complex situation like Afghanistan.
The issue in the case that I pointed out is that the US dictated to the Afghan government not to negotiate in the past. I do agree with your point that the Afghan government must stand on its own.
 

SRG01

Member
The return of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar this year has shown that a majority of the tribes are willing to accept a peace deal.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/05/hekmatyar-returns-kabul-20-years-hiding-170504145123325.html

Cautiously optimistic, but there may be parallels to Iraq with the whole long-time exile coming back and all.

Then again, one of the issues with Iraq was the (lack of) Sunni participation in the new government, which is completely different in Afghanistan.
 

Tovarisc

Member
Haven't seen anything major in news about this and this thread seems to be whole a lot nothing about this so... it was whole a lot of nothing?
 
Our strategy is to continue "not winning"... basically. Feel sorry for any soldiers who die there for no real reason at all.

But the intent is to keep this going because certain contractors and some Afghans profit handsomely from the war continuing
.
 

LakeEarth

Member
This is a trend with the administration where he announces decisions that aren't really decisions, or announces executive orders that don't really do anything.

It's really incompetent.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure the Pentagon still hasn't received official orders for that transgender service ban. But I probably shouldn't even bring that up, we don't want to remind them.
 

Lime

Member
i just realized that 2996 people died on 9.11 and 2400 US soldiers have died in the resulting afghan war...

And then think of all the hundreds of thousands of Afghan civilians who've lost their lives, and we're pretty much abhorrent murderers.

And then the same civilians in Iraq, in Libya, in Syria, in Pakistan, and in Yemen.

And suddenly we might realize how incredibly evil we are.
 
I caught Rachel Maddow and she had a guest on openly discussing the plan to put more troops in to protect corporations from looting Afghanistan's mineral wealth.

This is getting out of hand. But it is refreshing to see people discussing the real reasons for these wars instead of the usual "democracy" and "freedom" platitudes.
 
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