How do they operate without filling those jobs? Eventually something has to give, right?
Bear in mind the job market isn't some kind of overall static situation where when one job is added or removed, all the others stay the same. Generally, labor shortages and recessions are messy, asymmetrical, irrational affairs. People will get hired to do things they're not good at, or laid off when the company can't function without them. I was working in industry during the recession and places didn't just cut the fat -- they cut, skin, muscle, and vital organs all the way to the bone. As in, they didn't look at the numbers to figure out how to scrape by; entire departments from research to QA were cut 40%, 50%, 60%, even outright
eliminated. The result was that as business picked up,
none of these places could fill orders. But it didn't really hurt them individually, because they all did it. It did leave the U.S. at a serious disadvantage in the
global market, but the suits didn't panic because they're all international firms now anyway (more on that in a bit).
So, what
should happen when "something gives" is that acutely or chronically understaffed businesses should start losing clients for their inability to release product or handle orders, possibly even go under. But on a consumer level Americans are
amazingly shitty to their own workers (just ask anyone in foodservice or retail) and would rather bitch about the status quo than accept a price increase. Also, the government is irrationally friendly to monopolies. So service is a very stretchy thing here, economically. Sectors like the airlines or Internet providers aren't hurting nearly as much as they should despite treating customers with open contempt, regardless of staffing level. So, why
not cut to the bone? This is nothing new, but it does mean American service businesses can coast almost indefinitely on low staffing levels and shitty service.
As for places that sell widgets, based on my experience, the U.S. is currently in a very precarious position. It's trying to coast on leverage it gained over the 20th century but that advantage isn't there anymore. I think a lot of the current political climate is because of that. Post-WW2, the U.S. was often the only game in town. The U.S. today is best at very few things anymore, and hardly cares, to the point that U.S. business leaders openly lobby on behalf of their
overseas investments. Seriously, if maker of U.S. goods ILoveAmericaCorp proudly has 150 employees doing admin work in Dallas and ohbytheway has
50,000 sweatshop workers in Bangladesh actually making the stuff, do you really think they'll freak if the U.S. inks a trade deal that makes U.S. labor
less competitive? Because
most of the companies I became familiar with when I was in industrial sales did shit like this.
Chillingly, that means
the labor market has no bottom, because the "Job Creators" can now find all the workers, customers and friendly bureaucrats they want in other countries. The only real reasons left to be a "U.S." company are military protection, legal protection, amazingly stable currency (though Congress seems to want to undermine that) and legislators so self-destructively corrupt they can't drop their pants fast enough if you say you're a business owner and want to shove a splintered bat up someone's asshole. This whole "we can't find workers" narrative was initially used to expand the H1-B program to undermine skilled labor, but now I think there's something else going on here. Companies that feel they actually need to fill positions will find a way to do it. That they'll dig in, instead, implies these aren't real offers, which is a sign they really want something else. They're not hiring or bringing people here; so maybe they want to be opening offices there?
So this is my speculation, but I think the next step is a favorable benefit/cost split for what are entirely foreign firms. Literally all the business is done overseas, but the important stuff is tied to a minimum-size P.O. box in Delaware. Military protection? We're based out of Delaware. Contract lawsuit? We're a U.S. company, we have rights! Taxes? Oh, we're a foreign business, sorry. Regulations? We do business in China, that would be so unfair and uncompetitive! But to pull this off they need to manufacture a problem like, well, a
permanent U.S. labor shortage. "We haven't been able to fill any of our domestic openings for 28 months; we tried, but can we leave now?" Could I be wrong? I dearly hope so, but looking at where we've headed the last 20 years. . .
