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[Koren]

With Tesla superchargers, It actually takes around 20 minutes now to charge up to 50% and 75 minutes for full charges. I think by 2040 electric cars will charge ridiculously fast.

I believe the Better Place system (batteries swapping) would be far better... but to work, it require enough cars in circulation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Better_Place

This is a matter of minutes, but it also has the advantage of allowing slow charging (better for battery life), batteries servicing and replacement, etc.

 

[Monkeyball]

Electric cars right now are worse for the environment right? When are they better?

 

[SomethingInTheSea]

2030 for new sales, 2040 for used?

Thinking about used car sales, if the sale of used petrol/diesel cars is outlawed in some way, then there'll probably need to be a scrappage scheme to make sure that people aren't disadvantaged when they come to buy a new car ahead of the switchover point and find there current vehicle is worthless.

In general I think a lot of work is going to be needed, accompanied by a lot of subsidy money to make sure the poorest in society aren't penalised by this change. There's so much to think about, from making sure that its economically viable for everybody to afford one and even down to subsidising petrol stations to stay in business to serve people up to the cutoff point when it'll probably be the less well off that are still driving petrol cars.

 

[Ravensmash]

Electric cars right now are worse for the environment right? When are they better?

How can they be worse than petrol/diesel engines which are continuously spouting noxious fumes in the air?

 

[Charles Brandon]

I was getting lunch! I think everyone thinks that the Chinese nuclear power plant is a white elephant, with an energy cost chosen at the time when oil prices were at their peak, it should probably be called off.

That said, there's nothing in that analysis that isn't a fixable problem. The idea that this would cause a disaster is FUD.

I'm not suggesting that going electric is a bad thing, I'm all for it. I'm just pointing out that the energy supply issue is a real problem. It shouldn't be, it shouldn't stop us from moving forward but the fact is that if HPC does not come online on time (20125) , which is extremely likely, then we are big time in the poo, even leaving this issue aside. It's not an electric car problem, it's a infrastructure problem that would exist anyway, electric cars may just exacerbate it.

As for HPC I think it's a terrible deal all round, the best case scenario is that it works and the gov't have merely conned the electorate into believing they are cutting costs and not raising borrowing when what they are actually doing is putting the cost on the never never and asking tax payers to pay triple in energy prices down the road. We'd have been much better off just borrowing the cash and funding it ourselves but that would go against Tory policy. That's the best case. Worst case is that it doesn't come online until 2035 and in the meantime we don't have enough energy unless some contingency is put in place pretty much right now.

Having said all that, we can't scrap it now because we don't have time to implement anything else, so it's all a big bag of bollocks really.

 

[Koren]

How can they be worse than petrol/diesel engines which are continuously spouting noxious fumes in the air?

Well, if you use coal/oil to produce the electricity (and with the losses in the grid), it's not as if it was really green. And I really wonder about the batteries.

 

[Baron Doggystyle von Woof]

Electric cars right now are worse for the environment right? When are they better?

They are slightly better. I saw a research which compared them both (including building the batteries etc).

 

[Charles Brandon]

They are slightly better. I saw a research which compared them both (including building the batteries etc).

They will become better as take up improves tough, I guess. Didn't the same process happen with solar panels?

 

[Daffy Duck]

How can they be worse than petrol/diesel engines which are continuously spouting noxious fumes in the air?

Production impact.

 

[Bony Manifesto]

Thinking about used car sales, if the sale of used petrol/diesel cars is outlawed in some way, then there'll probably need to be a scrappage scheme to make sure that people aren't disadvantaged when they come to buy a new car ahead of the switchover point and find there current vehicle is worthless.

Scrappage schemes are used to get shitty cars off the road, not to save people with shitty cars from being out of pocket (although sometimes that ends up being a side-effect). And in the dying days of the internal combustion engine, I don't think there will be any nudging needed, as they'll be thoroughly impractical and uneconomical simply by it being expensive and inconvenient to keep them fuelled.

 

[Craft]

Well, if you use coal/oil to produce the electricity (and with the losses in the grid), it's not as if it was really green. And I really wonder about the batteries.

Coal should have been phased out by then, we only really use it in the winter months as it is now.
Most of our electricity comes from Nuclear and Natural gas at the moment with natural gas being scaled up and down with renewables output:
http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

 

[RubberJohnny]

I'm not suggesting that going electric is a bad thing, I'm all for it. I'm just pointing out that the energy supply issue is a real problem. It shouldn't be, it shouldn't stop us from moving forward but the fact is that if HPC does not come online on time (20125) , which is extremely likely, then we are big time in the poo, even leaving this issue aside. It's not an electric car problem, it's a infrastructure problem that would exist anyway, electric cars may just exacerbate it.

Our grid is heavily connected to Europe, we buy and sell power all the time between nations, so worst case we'd just become a grid importer for a few years. It's not like we'd get brownouts.

 

[SomethingInTheSea]

Scrappage schemes are used to get shitty cars off the road, not to save people with shitty cars from being out of pocket (although sometimes that ends up being a side-effect). And in the dying days of the internal combustion engine, I don't think there will be any nudging needed, as they'll be thoroughly impractical and uneconomical simply by it being expensive and inconvenient to keep them fuelled.

You say that, but expecting people who are struggling already, to raise money for a car deposit that's disappeared due to government policy just isn't fair. And its not just after the cutoff date that this will be a problem, as the date gets closer existing cars will lose an resale value pretty quickly.

 

[Fred-87]

I'm ok with it, but then I have room for a garage and a charging point

What the fuck everyone in towns are supposed to do I don't know.

Its possible that more people might use a robo-uber type service I suppose.

Fleets of electric cars sitting in supermarket car parks overnight charging up for a busy day, trundling off to collect people and drop them off at work or the shops etc.

People in towns? Stop being weak. In my country are everyday whole groups of people biking to work/school. Yes even for many kilometers when they live outside of town. Good for your health and you wont be stuck in traffic.

 

[RubberJohnny]

Well, if you use coal/oil to produce the electricity (and with the losses in the grid), it's not as if it was really green. And I really wonder about the batteries.

Nope. Even if your grid power was 100% coal (and I don't think there's a country on earth with 100% fossil fuels providing it's grid power), electric cars would still be more efficient because the distribution cost of power via the grid is a tiny fraction of the distribution cost of loading up tankers full of hydrocarbons and sending them via roads to petrol stations all over the country.

 

[Guy.brush]

That's simply not feasable. 2030 would be a more reasonable target, and even then that's pushing it

How is 2025 not feasible?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/05/volvo-cars-electric-hybrid-2019

Volvo just committed to 2019 willingly on their own.
Legislation should aim to PUSH the industry forward not trail it.

 

[JoeNut]

I don't believe this will actually happen.

why? volvo have already announced that they won't be making any type of combustion engine by 2019.

This will have happened will before 2040

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

How is 2025 not feasible?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/05/volvo-cars-electric-hybrid-2019

Volvo just committed to 2019 willingly on their own.
Legislation should aim to PUSH the industry forward not trail it.

Because that's less than seven years away, and sweeping infrastructure changes need years of planning and years of development to not be a clusterfuck.

I've always said that EVs are going to rapidly take over the market, but it's not going to be cheep enough on a timescale of seven years to allow for the complete ban of all gas new* powered vehicles

Vulvo are still going to be selling cars that run on gas, they will just all be hybrids. A very, very stark difference.

 

[Guy.brush]

Because that's less than seven years away, and sweeping infrastructure changes need years of planning and years of development to not be a clusterfuck.

I've always said that EVs are going to rapidly take over the market, but it's not going to be cheep enough on a timescale of seven years to allow for the complete ban of all gas powered vehicles

Man NOBODY is talking about a complete ban of all gas powered vehicles.
This is just about NEW cars coming onto the market.
It is absolutely feasible. Please read the article.
May saying 2040 is cowardly and just to hop on the current Zeitgeist train of pretending to do something. It is so far out she could have pulled any number basically.
It is just there to appease a certain voting clientele that something is done while staying super cozy with the fossil fuel industry to not shake it up.

 

[kraspkibble]

wish it would happen sooner to be honest.

 

[Wvrs]

Just saw Michael Gove talking about this, I'm guessing this will be rolled out when the NHS gets that £350 million a week.

 

[darkinstinct]

There were trials for battery swapping stations at some point.

I believe one of the main problem would be standardisation. You'd need to settle for a specific physical size, crippling manufacturers who would want to give more range to some of their vehicles, and others who would want to make more compact cars, or design it differently. And I imagine it would slow down battery innovations, new batteries with revolutionary capabilities would be difficult to introduce because of market inertia.

An interesting opinion about it

The biggest problem is space. A typical gas station has 500 customers a day. Can you imagine the space needed to safely store 500 car batteries? And how would you recharge them all to use them again the next day?

 

[Bony Manifesto]

You say that, but expecting people who are struggling already, to raise money for a car deposit that's disappeared due to government policy just isn't fair.

But if you're buying a petrol car in the years leading up to 2040, you've got to be prepared that you're not going to be able to make any money from selling it. And it's not like poorer people are buying cars to trade in for a new one in a couple of years; they're buying cars whose next stop will be the scrap yard anyway!

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

Man NOBODY is talking about a complete ban of all gas powered vehicles.
This is just about NEW cars coming onto the market.
It is absolutely feasible. Please read the article.

I read the article, forgot to put *New in post.

Point still stands, anyone who reads threads on renewables or EVs know my rather bullish stance on the technology, so don't tell me to read an article or read up on the subject at hand

 

[Frankfurter]

Electric cars right now are worse for the environment right? When are they better?

They are better already. Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety in Germany had a study back in 2014 (only in German: http://www.bmub.bund.de/fileadmin/Daten_BMU/Download_PDF/Verkehr/emob_klimabilanz_2015_bf.pdf ) that even an electric car bought in 2014 and assuming German electricity grid (i.e. pretty heavy on coal) is already "cleaner" than an ICE car over its assumed 12 year life span. Things have only gotten better since then.

Conclusion of the paper (German original + my own ~translation):
"Elektroautos sind so sauber wie der Strom, mit dem sie fahren. Es zeigt sich, dass E-Fahrzeuge selbst unter Berücksichtigung des derzeitigen deutschen Strommix klimafreundlicher sind als vergleichbare verbrennungsmotorische Fahrzeuge, auch solche mit Spritspartechniken. Die Klimavorteile werden mit jedem Jahr, in dem die Energiewende im Stromsektor voranschreitet, größer."

"Electric cars are as clean as the electricity with which they drive. As shown, E-cars are more climate friendly than ICE cars, even with the current German electricity mix in mind; this also includes ICE cars with special patrol-saving measures [I assume this is about start-stop and other technology]. The "climate advantage" rises with the advancements in the electricity market (i.e. more renewables, less coal and other fossil fuels)."

Note: this is including both the production and disposal of the battery of the electric car. Second life usage of the battery is not considered, i.e. the electric car might actually fare better.

 

[Charles Brandon]

Our grid is heavily connected to Europe, we buy and sell power all the time between nations, so worst case we'd just become a grid importer for a few years. It's not like we'd get brownouts.

This is a good point and one I hadn't considered. I've done some research however and it seems that France has her own energy production challenges and we only have a 2 gigawatt pipe anyway, with peak consumption around 60gw. So Even if France has the means to supply us, they can't provide more than 3% of our peak needs, I guess we upgrade the pipe but the supply constraints are harder to manage.

I still think it's a real problem. even in the best case scenario we have to rely heavily on the French, which isn't great and may be complicated by that b word nonsense.

 

[RubberJohnny]

The biggest problem is space. A typical gas station has 500 customers a day. Can you imagine the space needed to safely store 500 car batteries? And how would you recharge them all to use them again the next day?

I don't think you'd put power supplies at smaller petrol stations - places where you know they'd be sitting idle are more likely - i.e. car parks, supermarkets, big motorway services, park and rides, etc. Plus people can charge at home, so every journey will be starting with the equivalent of a full tank.

EDIT: ^^ We have Scandinavian links as well, and we can pull energy from anywhere in Europe through France, it doesn't have to be their native power. While the UK gov has dropped a lot of green stuff, Scotland seems to still be going full steam with new generation too.

 

[Guy.brush]

I read the article, forgot to put *New in post.

Point still stands, anyone who reads threads on renewables or EVs know my rather bullish stance on the technology, so don't tell me to read an article or read up on the subject at hand

So you are saying it is unrealistic to create legislation that would mandate that in 7-12 years time (2025-2030) the auto industry only put hybrid or pure electric motor vehicles on the market when the auto makers themselves have already committed to more aggressive dates(Volvo with 2019) without any forceful legislation?

Can you explain why it is unrealistic then?

 

[darkinstinct]

How is 2025 not feasible?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/05/volvo-cars-electric-hybrid-2019

Volvo just committed to 2019 willingly on their own.

Hybrids. Those will probably just be gas powered engines with electric brake power storage. First you have to solve the problem of refueling before you can think about large scale electric fleets. And that means to either make it almost as quick as refueling a standard car or offering plugs in every single parking space there is. And if you do that, who pays for that? Do you know how long it takes to build stuff? Even if they started today they would not be ready in 2025. And what about that energy? Where does it come from? Because realistically the only chance to react such short term to the rising demand would be coal power plants. So you pollute the air in order to not pollute it with cars. Same goes for those batteries. You know where some important ingredients of those come from? Mines in Congo. Where child labour is a thing so that western people can drive their electric cars. The world is not as simple as you think it is.

 

[Charles Brandon]

We have Scandinavian links as well, and we can pull energy from anywhere in Europe through France, it doesn't have to be their native power. While the UK gov has dropped a lot of green stuff, Scotland seems to still be going full steam with new generation too.

Good to know. I hope that ends up being sufficient.

 

[Psychoward]

That's at least a few years too late.

 

[darkinstinct]

Plus people can charge at home,

Yeah, about that. Most people in cities don't have their own garage or parking space. Public parking is the only chance to recharge. And then of course you have dumb fucks running arround simply unplugging cars.

 

[nekkid]

I don't believe this will actually happen.

No, but it will accelerate the transition for both infrastructure and vehicle development. Which is a good thing.

Yeah, about that. Most people in cities don't have their own garage or parking space. Public parking is the only chance to recharge. And then of course you have dumb fucks running arround simply unplugging cars.

You need to move.

 

[RubberJohnny]

Yeah, about that. Most people in cities don't have their own garage or parking space. Public parking is the only chance to recharge.

That bizarre ending bit aside, I think by 2040 we'll have driverless cars and a lot of our modern-day assumptions will be thrown out of the window.

Nothing stopping them from driving themselves to the nearest public charging point when not in use.

 

[Guy.brush]

Hybrids. Those will probably just be gas powered engines with electric brake power storage. First you have to solve the problem of refueling before you can think about large scale electric fleets. And that means to either make it almost as quick as refueling a standard car or offering plugs in every single parking space there is. And if you do that, who pays for that? Do you know how long it takes to build stuff? Even if they started today they would not be ready in 2025. And what about that energy? Where does it come from? Because realistically the only chance to react such short term to the rising demand would be coal power plants. So you pollute the air in order to not pollute it with cars. Same goes for those batteries. You know where some important ingredients of those come from? Mines in Congo. Where child labour is a thing so that western people can drive their electric cars. The world is not as simple as you think it is.

I think some studies you are reading are not as objective as you think they are. Sounds like fossil fuel industry sponsored FUD

 

[teh_pwn]

These bans are really political moves.

Sometime around 2025-2030 market forces will naturally deprecate the combustion engine. Electric cars will be:
1. Cheaper. Battery tech will get cheaper to produce, the floor for electric engine cost is much lower than combustion.
2. More reliable. Electric engine is way more simple.
3. Cheaper to fuel. Gas prices will go up and solar/wind will get a bit cheaper.
4. Faster. Electric engine is much more efficient.

With that said, will the US make a similar ban? If it does, much later. But still I don't think it's necessary. When people shop for cars and see a faster, more reliable sedan for $20k and the combustion version is $30k, people are going to get the electric one.

Also the whole charge time and range thing won't be an issue. We'll probably have graphene, stanene or another similar battery tech than can go 0 to 100% in a couple of minutes at a high speed charging station, which is a shoe in adaption of the gas station. Charges will no longer struggle to keep range on par with gas but enable 500+ mile/1000 km ranges easily. The combustion engine will be an antique.

 

[Mass_Pincup]

How is 2025 not feasible?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/05/volvo-cars-electric-hybrid-2019

Volvo just committed to 2019 willingly on their own.
Legislation should aim to PUSH the industry forward not trail it.

I would think that car manufacturers need time to adjust their infrastructures as well as retrain their workers and stuff like that.

 

[Koren]

Coal should have been phased out by then, we only really use it in the winter months as it is now.

He said "right now", I was answering on this assumption.

Nope. Even if your grid power was 100% coal (and I don't think there's a country on earth with 100% fossil fuels providing it's grid power), electric cars would still be more efficient because the distribution cost of power via the grid is a tiny fraction of the distribution cost of loading up tankers full of hydrocarbons and sending them via roads to petrol stations all over the country.

I don't disagree at all... I just say that "it's electric, it's green" is a simplification. Same for hydrogen, because of how it's produced (now). Same for bioethanol (even more so when, to produce it, you use vehicules running on oil)

 

[RubberJohnny]

I don't disagree at all... I just say that "it's electric, it's green" is a simplification. Same for hydrogen, because of how it's produced (now). Same for bioethanol (even more so when, to produce it, you use vehicules running on oil)

I think you're wrongly assuming this is about climate change rather than air pollution though - people are dying in cities around the world from worsening air pollution. If we can get to clean air and less noise pollution in my lifetime I'm all for it.

It explicitly mentions air pollution in the original story.

 

[Tobor]

The industry expects market-driven crossover to happen in the mid 2020s, that is, more non-ICE vehicles than ICE vehicles are expected to be sold at that point.

So 2040 seems like a perfectly reasonable target.

Yes. This is because in 2020 we cross the magic threshold. Battery prices will drop to $100 per kWh. They are further expected to drop to $80 per kWh shortly after that.

Why is dollar per kWh important? At $100, it becomes feasible to build electric cars that can sell for the same price points or even cheaper than gas equivalents. Once we hit the magic $100 number, economy of scale will take over and the transition will speed up. Factor into that infrastructure improvements and continued advancement in solar and other renewables. They will also speed up as we transition.

2040 is conservative for new sales. The market will have sorted itself out by then anyway.

 

[Khaz]

You need to move.

They need to make secured plugs. It should have been the first bullet point when designing the socket: how to keep people not being the owner to unplug the car? The fact that there is still no lock in plenty of new EV is dumbfounding.

 

[LewieP]

why? volvo have already announced that they won't be making any type of combustion engine by 2019.

This will have happened will before 2040

I mean that you will still be legally able to buy a combustion engine car after 2040.

Electric cars will most likely be the vast majority though.

 

[Baron Doggystyle von Woof]

They will become better as take up improves tough, I guess. Didn't the same process happen with solar panels?

Yes. Its only a matter of time. Solar panels are since this year cheaper than coal for example.

Nobody stops this train now. A green future is happening. I hope its on time.

 

[nekkid]

I mean that you will still be legally able to buy a combustion engine car after 2040.

Electric cars will most likely be the vast majority though.

And fuel prices will no doubt be extortionate at that time as well, due to the low demand.

Or maybe highly competitively low.

Either way, you're fucked if you live in Aberdeen.

 

[DBT85]

People in towns? Stop being weak. In my country are everyday whole groups of people biking to work/school. Yes even for many kilometers when they live outside of town. Good for your health and you wont be stuck in traffic.

Well, thanks for calling me weak. I live 110 miles from work and 44 miles from it when I stay in digs so i suppose I could cycle before and after each 12 hour shift.

Please, go tell the people in the town they are weak for wanting a car.

 

[milanbaros]

Thinking about used car sales, if the sale of used petrol/diesel cars is outlawed in some way, then there'll probably need to be a scrappage scheme to make sure that people aren't disadvantaged when they come to buy a new car ahead of the switchover point and find there current vehicle is worthless.

In general I think a lot of work is going to be needed, accompanied by a lot of subsidy money to make sure the poorest in society aren't penalised by this change. There's so much to think about, from making sure that its economically viable for everybody to afford one and even down to subsidising petrol stations to stay in business to serve people up to the cutoff point when it'll probably be the less well off that are still driving petrol cars.

Or you just make it law to disclose to all buyers of ice cars that their car attract a punitive tax after 204x.

This would increase adoption of electric because who would buy 5 years before the cut off knowing thei car is about to be worthless?

 

[Hello? This is Hailun!]

I don't believe this will actually happen.

That and they're tackling air pollution but not addressing the biggest polluters....


Wonder what will happen to folks like Maserati. I'm only buying them for the engine noise and response. Their interiors are crap and their electrical issues are infamous. An all electric Maserati makes no sense from a consumer standpoint.