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[sonycowboy]

Courtesy of Wedbush Morgan

December 2007 Video Game Sales Preview: Expect +28% Sales Growth
• We expect December U.S. retail video game console software sales data to be released after market close on Thursday, January 17. We forecast sales of $2.222 billion, +28% compared to last year’s $1.740 billion. This was an exceedingly difficult month to forecast, given that November sales of $1.3 billion were so phenomenal. Historically,December has never yielded results lower than 2x the results in November (at least since 2000), and we are prepared to be spectacularly wrong with our forecast should the historical pattern hold this month.

• Our estimate reflects $1.837 billion in sales contribution from new platforms (PS3, Wii, 360, PSP and DS) and current generation software sales of $385 million. We believe that PS2 software sales declined 41% year-over-year, as contribution from next generation software has more than offset the decline in current generation software sales. We
estimate sell-through of 1,450,000 Wii, 1,250,000 Xbox 360 and 875,000 PS3 consoles. For purposes of comparison, The simExchange prediction market forecasts 1,730,000 Wii, 1,450,000 Xbox 360 and 854,000 PS3 consoles.

• Sales growth over the first 11 months of 2007 was a robust 33%, well ahead of our forecast of 19% growth for the year. Notwithstanding last month’s up 62% on broad strength in video game products and a beneficial calendar shift, we continue to expect robust sales in December, with the sector appearing recession-proof. It is important to note
that November included nine days of sales post-Thanksgiving, compared to only two days of sales last year, which likely accelerated some sales from December.

• Sony and Microsoft have already announced strong holiday sales of their consoles. Our console sell-through forecasts are consistent with these announcements. In addition, in December, Activision and Ubisoft significantly raised Q3 (Dec) quarter guidance.

• We think that solid software sales growth will continue into early 2008, as the holiday lineup includes high priced (and sold out) games like Guitar Hero III and Rock Band, and the post-holiday line-up is also quite strong. Werecommend that investors accumulate Activision, Electronic Arts, GameStop, Nintendo, THQ, and Ubisoft shares at current levels.

• For December, we expect the following revenue results:
o Activision -- $440 million, +74% y-o-y.
o Atari -- $14 million, -28% y-o-y.
o Electronic Arts -- $445 million, +45% y-o-y.
o Majesco -- $12 million, +11% y-o-y.
o Midway -- $18 million, -50% y-o-y.
o Nintendo -- $325 million, +37% y-o-y.
o Take-Two -- $72 million, +2% y-o-y.
o THQ -- $150 million, -5% y-o-y.
o Ubisoft -- $175 million, +91% y-o-y.

We expect December sales of $2.222 billion (up 28% compared to December 2006’s $1.740 billion). We expect next generation software sales of $1.837 billion and current-generation software sales of $385 million. We believe that PS2 software sales declined 41% year-over-year, as contribution from next generation software has more than offset the decline in current generation software sales. The rate of PS2 software sales decline decreased slightly last month (-23%) compared with -24% YTD through November. The degree of PS2 software sales decline over the next several months will likely be highly correlated to next generation console sales, with year-over-year increases in next generation consoles purchases likely to accelerate declining demand for current generation software.

We expect December sales to be driven by recent top selling releases Nintendo’s Super Mario Galaxy and Wii Play, Activision’s Call of Duty 4 and Guitar Hero III, Electronic Arts’ Rock Band, THQ’s WWE SmackDown vs. Raw 2008, and Ubisoft’s Assassin’s Creed. December is usually a light month for new releases as most publishers try to release their biggest games before the holiday selling season. The top December releases were Electronic Arts’ Rock Band (PS2), Midway’s Unreal Tournament III (PS3), and THQ’s MX vs ATV Untamed (PS3, PS2, PSP, 360, DS).


Our forecasts for console hardware sales are as follows (The simExchange prediction market forecasts are provided for
comparison):
WMS TSE*
Wii 1,450,000 1,730,000
PS3 875,000 854,000
Xbox 360 1,250,000 1,450,000
PS2 975,000 n/a
PSP 1,075,000 1,030,000
DS 2,450,000 2,900,000
GBA 85,000 n/a

 

[Mojovonio]

not surprising.

PS3 did fairly well.

 

[Rottweiler]

Looks like MS is doomed.

 

[hauton]

I'd like to think that the PS3 broke 900 000 for the sake of competition and a healthy market, but those are pretty good figures. I doubt Wii didn't break 1.5mil though.

 

[sonycowboy]

Some SW Expectations

COD4 2.0M
GH3 2.4M
Rock Band 800k
UT 3 150k
Smackdown 900k
MX vs ATV 200k
Assasins Creed 1M

 

[Wollan]

If COD4 makes 2million in Dec, what's the total up to (all platforms) ?

Edit: UT3 PS3 at 150k is too high. 70k is my guess. Pisspoor marketing. Dec 10th release date surprise to many..etc.

 

[oneHeero]

Awesome for Ps3 and for RB.

 

[_Alkaline_]

Some SW Expectations

COD4 2.0M
GH3 2.4M
Rock Band 800k
UT 3 150k
Smackdown 900k
MX vs ATV 200k
Assasins Creed 1M

Thanks sonycowboy!

Any Galaxy predictictions?

 

[spwolf]

If COD4 makes 2million in Dec, what's the total up to (all platforms) ?

if they do 2 mllion in Dec, they will be able to sell 10mil over lifetime, easily. It means around 6 million LTD sales so far (estimate).

 

[Beer Monkey]

I'd like to think that the PS3 broke 900 000 for the sake of competition and a healthy market, but those are pretty good figures.

I think the market is looking pretty healthy even if PS3 moves 800k or so. A three-way global split is ideal, and while obviously Wii will win this gen on hardware, I suspect the overall market for software will be much more even distributed among the three companies this gen than last gen.

 

[Gamecocks625]

Awesome for Ps3 and for RB.

You do realize these are predictions, right?

 

[ksamedi]

if they do 2 mllion in Dec, they will be able to sell 10mil over lifetime, easily. It means around 6 million LTD sales so far (estimate).

Thats kind of surprising. I never thought Call of Duty would become so big.

 

[_Alkaline_]

Awesome for Ps3 and for RB.

You're not teh hamburglar?

 

[Log4Girlz]

Now imagine where the industry would be if Gamestop would stop selling used games.

 

[Dr. Zoidberg]

UT3 PS3 at 150k is too high. 70k is my guess. Pisspoor marketing. Dec 10th release date surprise to many..etc.

I've noticed that they've really been running ads for this game a lot lately, of course, it's after Christmas now and may be too little too late.

I find it funny that the current ads try their darnedest to make it seem like there is a "Gears of War" style single-player campaign, when AFAIK, the single player is just multi with bots. It's still a great game, Epic, but let it stand on it's own merits.

 

[oneHeero]

You're not teh hamburglar?

He stole my avatar and has been running around with it.

You do realize these are predictions, right?

Every prediction we've had, from several sites, indicate the samething on the Ps3. I dont expect less than 750k.
On RB, I think it would be awesome if it were true, the game deserves it, imo.
I worded it incorrectly, I should have said, that "would be" awesome for the Ps3 and RB.

 

[Beer Monkey]

Every prediction we've had, from several sites, indicate the samething on the Ps3. I dont expect less than 750k.

How far we have recalibrated our expectations this gen if PS3 can sell 1/3 what PS2 did in its second Christmas (and even worse than Xbox 1 did) and fans are relieved. :lol

I agree it's not gloom and doom, and it is a good trend for Sony (relative to past PS3 sales), but man it's fascinating to watch this generation play out.

 

[oneHeero]

How far we have recalibrated our expectations this gen if PS3 can sell 1/3 what PS2 did in its second Christmas (and even worse than Xbox 1 did) and fans are relieved. :lol

I agree it's not gloom and doom, and it is a good trend for Sony (relative to past PS3 sales), but man it's fascinating to watch this generation play out.

I dont know, I wasnt apart of the whole console war/console sales stuff last gen. I didnt know people argued about stuff like this.

Even than, I didnt expect Ps3 sales to skyrocket and surpass everything @ $600 lol. When everythign was announced, even I was predicting the Wii would outsell the other 2. You can buy a $400-500 or $500-600 console or grab one @ $250.

 

[Dr. Kitty Muffins]

I expected the Wii to sell way more than the 360 but I guess the shortage might make it a slimmer margin. I also thought the PS3 might get close to 1 million but perhaps I'm being overly generous.

 

[L0st Id3ntity]

Some SW Expectations

COD4 2.0M
GH3 2.4M
Rock Band 800k
UT 3 150k
Smackdown 900k
MX vs ATV 200k
Assasins Creed 1M

 

[Borys]

Some SW Expectations

COD4 2.0M
GH3 2.4M
Rock Band 800k
UT 3 150k
Smackdown 900k
MX vs ATV 200k
Assasins Creed 1M

Once a million+ selling franchise on the PC...

How the mighty have fallen.

 

[Whipped Spartan]

Once a million+ selling franchise on the PC...

How the mighty have fallen.

I like that they advertise it as from the makers of GEARS OF WAR.:lol

Epic, just put your tail between your legs go back to MS and make us more GOW games.

 

[Kill Your Masters]

Once a million+ selling franchise on the PC...

How the mighty have fallen.

Now its probably a million+ downloaded franchise.

 

[Beer Monkey]

UT3 low sales are partially due to a lack of a hard release date and media blitz (with the latter being impossible to coordinate when you aren't sure when the game is coming out). IMO.

 

[OliveJuice]

Those numbers would be good all around.

 

[davepoobond]

I like that they advertise it as from the makers of GEARS OF WAR.:lol

GAHAHAHAHAH THATS BECAUSE MICROSOFT MADE GEARS OF WAR!!!

 

[kenta]

I think UT3 will get some legs when people start hearing about the mods and seeing them in action

 

[Kill Your Masters]

I think UT3 will get some legs when people start hearing about the mods and seeing them in action

 

[Hcoregamer00]

I like that they advertise it as from the makers of GEARS OF WAR.:lol

Epic, just put your tail between your legs go back to MS and make us more GOW games.

It is just me, but if they had a better single player and co-op like GOW then it would have sold more.

Maybe it is just me.

 

[Enkidu]

I think UT3 will get some legs when people start hearing about the mods and seeing them in action

But unless the game starts selling, how many mods will there really be? I don't doubt the mods ability to sell a game, but part of the reason UT has had such good mods is because there have been a lot of people around to play them (and make them, of course).

 

[KINGMOKU]

I expect those Wii numbers to be massivly higher then whats shown. I understand the shortages, but I remember someone talking about how Nintendo just dumped a massive supply of Wii's, a week before christmass, in the range of 4-600,000 consoles.

I fully expect a number really close to 2million.

 

[Wollan]

Personally speaking, it was pretty grand and all that the first day or two. Classic UT theme redone, good graphics, dark walkers and probably the best pc to console port ever.

But when it comes to it it's still the same old, very old UT franchise and that's the reason I haven't played since. But I will keep it around for whatever crazy mod turns up (especially those that greatly differ from UT3 itself).

 

[Beer Monkey]

But unless the game starts selling, how many mods will there really be? I don't doubt the mods ability to sell a game, but part of the reason UT has had such good mods is because there have been a lot of people around to play them (and make them, of course).

Agreed. I can't see the UT3 mod scene touching the Source mod scene.

 

[Guy Legend]

Resistance is still the best selling PS3 game of all time, correct? I'm thinking that COD4 may surpass that if it hasn't already....

 

[Wollan]

Resistance is still the best selling PS3 game of all time, correct? I'm thinking that COD4 may surpass that if it hasn't already....

Pretty likely. It's well past a million already I believe (and I would guess Resistance is at 2m or slightly past).

 

[borghe]

fantastic numbers (potentially) for PS3. hopefully now with the HD format war over with its numbers will continue to go up. of course being that I doubt we'll ever see it catch up to 360 3rd party sales it will always be in third place, hopefully though just not AS distant a third place. If anything, between solid sales and the growing number of cross platform tools and experience on the system, you can believe that it will receive a ton of cross platform titles as well as the always dependable sony exclusives. PS3 really is the Gamecube of this generation, which given how Nintendo was able to bounce back isn't necessarily a bad thing. Being it's also the best Blu-ray player on the market, and will likely continue to be, it positions them perfectly next-gen to possibly take over the entire living room. At least a hell of a lot closer than MS is to it.

Wii has cemented itself in first place by this point IMHO. It is only a matter of when it will catch up to 360 LTD this year in the US, not if.

360 will continue to be the third party system of choice. Funny given the Wii's huge momentum over it. What else can you say? 360 owners love to buy games. However, they still have a ways to go to catch up to Sony in the total living room takeover department. If Sony can actually beat MS to the punch with IPTV (video downloads don't mean shit on either system with <.5TB hard drives) they will have the ultimate physical media player and the first IPTV player.

 

[Psychotext]

We get the NPD release on Friday right?

 

[Loudninja]

PS2 still selling that well, damn.

 

[pr0cs]

Looks like the PS3 may have a a decent month but I'm still surprised it didn't do better. Price drop and an insane marketing blitz before during and after xmas (at least where I live) had me expecting to at least sell as much at the 360.

 

[RBH]

We get the NPD release on Friday right?

Thursday, January 17th.


I'll be interested in seeing how Rock Band, Uncharted, and UT3 do.

 

[Psychotext]

Thursday, January 17th.

Even better. Thanks.

 

[Dr. Zoidberg]

hopefully now with the HD format war over

OT but is it really? I've heard several people say this and yet I haven't heard any press releases stating that Toshiba is throwing in the towel. Or is this more along the lines of armchair officials "calling it" on the WB news? Or just wishful thinking from a weary public?

As a PS3 owner I'm in the BR camp by default but I hope people aren't counting their crustaceans before they hatch or something like that. If there has been a real "end" then I missed it somehow.

 

[FIREBABY]

Looks like the PS3 may have a a decent month but I'm still surprised it didn't do better. Price drop and an insane marketing blitz before during and after xmas (at least where I live) had me expecting to at least sell as much at the 360.

Really? I think MS sucked up most of the people that would buy a $400 system. And you are right, after the marketing blitz you would have thought they would have sold more. That is if this preview proves to be true. Decent month for sure. But compared to the other 2, past and present, not so much.

 

[shinsnake]

OT but is it really? I've heard several people say this and yet I haven't heard any press releases stating that Toshiba is throwing in the towel. Or is this more along the lines of armchair officials "calling it" on the WB news? Or just wishful thinking from a weary public?

As a PS3 owner I'm in the BR camp by default but I hope people aren't counting their crustaceans before they hatch or something like that. If there has been a real "end" then I missed it somehow.

It may not be over (with Paramount staying HD DVD exclusive), but it seems it's only a matter of time.

 

[RBH]

Just for reference, does anyone know how the PS2, Xbox, and GC performed in the second December of their lifespans?

 

[borghe]

OT but is it really? I've heard several people say this and yet I haven't heard any press releases stating that Toshiba is throwing in the towel. Or is this more along the lines of armchair officials "calling it" on the WB news? Or just wishful thinking from a weary public?

As a PS3 owner I'm in the BR camp by default but I hope people aren't counting their crustaceans before they hatch or something like that. If there has been a real "end" then I missed it somehow.

the most official word we have is that Paramount has enacted their escape clause and that Universal's exclusive contract has in fact lapsed. These two points are fact. What is not clear is when Universal plans on putting forth support, or when Paramount is officially able to announce support. The Paramount contract may have been worded in such a way that they won't be able to give support to bRD until after Warner cease HD-DVD production, which won't be until June 1st.

Either way, BRD now has 70% of the studio output exclusive to their format and neither HD-DVD studio is contractually obligated to that format.

As for Toshiba throwing in the towel, this is unlikely as the format is still a viable storage format and still maintains a price advantage over BD-RW in the PC market. Do not expect a Press Release from them announcing the war is over. The only true signal of it will be both Uni and Para announcing BRD support. Rumors for that is by the end of February or March at the latest. Rumors of course.

edit - for reference, Toshiba's new marketing campaign is heavily focusing on the fact that their players make your existing DVDs look great. Yes, that is what they are focusing on. If that's not a sign of where things are at, I don't know what is.

 

[Wii-za]

        WMS           TSE         Wii-za
Wii    1,450,000    [U]1,730,000[/U]    [U]1,750,000[/U]
PS3      875,000      854,000      950,000
360    1,250,000    [U]1,450,000[/U]    [U]1,450,000[/U]
PS2      [U]975,000[/U]          n/a      [U]950,000[/U]
PSP    [U]1,075,000[/U]    1,030,000    [U]1,150,000[/U]
DS     2,450,000    2,900,000    2,770,000
GBA       85,000          n/a     450,000

Interesting...

 

[Beer Monkey]

Just for reference, does anyone know how the PS2, Xbox, and GC performed in the second December of their lifespans?

Slightly different than I remembered.

[ps2]1971k
[xbx]1033k
[gcn]619k

 

[CowboyAstronaut]

Looks like MS is doomed.

?? Okay... I hope that is sarcasm.

 

[RBH]

Slightly different than I remembered.

[ps2]1971k
[xbx]1033k
[gcn]619k

Thanks.

PS2 did better than I thought it did, and GC seemed to perform poorly.