You tell it like it is, brother! If it were up to me, we'd still be playing games with this:
If it aint broke ...
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New Xbox 3 Rumors From Digital Foundry
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
If it aint broke ...
McHuj
Member
Three things.
One, you may or may not be splitting limited holiday dollars (I'm assuming you're talking about the consumer's dollars). Someone who has owned a 360 for ~6 years already maybe looking for something new. It's better that they buy your new console than the competitions (WiiU) that will be the hot new toy.
Two, we don't know that MS's new console will be loss-leading, there have been rumors that they will try to make money from the get go.
Finally, while MS is doing great in the US this year, I don't know if we can be confident in that for the next 12 months, especially world wide. It will be really interesting how this quarter turns out for MS. If you look at the previous 4 quarts in terms of YoY hardware sales it's been: +21%, +80%, +13%, -18%. I don't know why there was such a sharp drop off this past summer, but the case can certainly be made that the console has peaked and a new model 12 months from now wouldn't be too soon.
infinityBCRT
Member
But you also have to realize that the 360 is freaking old hardware and the floor could fall out underneath it very quickly. That way of thinking is WAY too reactionary and is the type of thinking that got RIM where it is now.
Exactly. With Halo 4 and a cheaper 360, MS should have a very profitable holiday next year. No reason to cannibalize that by launching a new system.
Edit:
WiiU will surely be the hot new toy but it may also be a tough sell if most of the games look no better than a 360/PS3 game. Better to let Ninty have the spotlight all to themselves than to share it IMO. I understand Sony may very well also launch 2013, so the 720 will likely fight for mindshare then, but at least they aren't also competing with their own previous console at the time.
If the next xbox isn't loss-leading, then they Wii-fied it. They will have to lose out the gate in order to be competitive at all in the tech race.
charlequin
Banned
This is true, but someone who's owned a 360 for 6 years also buys a lot of software. The risk I'd be concerned about here would be someone who might otherwise have, say, bought the 10 biggest franchises for the holiday skipping everything but Call of Duty: Dirty Bumps and putting that money into a 720 instead.
This strikes me as really implausible. A $399 price cap with a packed in Kinect and a profit margin on day one doesn't leave them a lot of room to develop lasting hardware.
True, it's always going to be somewhat speculative, and my position might look really lousy depending on how things go this Xmas. I think the worst-case situation for 2013 would be if the Kinect boost was short-lived and we saw the 360 crash down to pre-Kinect levels again after the holiday.
Psychotext
Member
Last year the S was released... this year, not so much.
charlequin said:
I still think that "striking while the irons hot" is the best way to go. As someone said earlier, it would be foolish for MS to wait until the 360 is actively sinking before launching a new console (that's why Nintendo's in the shape that its in face a 1+ year drought that was only broken up by the release of one game), and there's no guarantee that the 360 will be doing the same numbers Holiday 2012 as it was in 2011
As if the tech race ever mattered in the console space. PCs are irrelevant - developers are going to go where the consoles go. And Sony can't sustain another $599 console. Besides, Sony could release the Godstation, but if 2/3 of the competition have a year-long head start and pull in a commanding market share between the two of them it won't matter how much extra power the PS4 has: developers won't utilize it.
You had me questioning whether I read it wrong as I reread it.
But yeah. That is how I emphasize that paragraph when reading it:
In terms of how we see the next-gen Xbox panning out based on what our own sources tell us, we understand that Kinect is set for a significant upgrade and has a very strong likelihood of ending up bundled with the machine. It is understood that Microsoft hosted a developer soiree at Disneyland just after E3 this year where the platform holder invited partners to pitch in with ideas on where they would want the technology to go,
The console itself is going to be what MS wants it to be from a cost/manufacturing point of view. The Kinect, however, MS would be crazy to ignore input on. Clearly the thing has issues and developers know more than anyone what should be prioritized in Kinect 2.0.
People shouldn't dismiss Kinect as a concept just yet. What worries me is the apparent fixation on resolution and focus ("near mode"). That's not the device's problem. It's supposed to be a motion controller. The only thing it's good at, in its current form, is stencil matching (e.g. Dance Central), it cannot adequately read movement in detail and use that data as player input in a timely fashion. If this could be changed (by revising the software or the hardware, be it Kinect itself or the console), this might engender lots of new playing mechanics and thereby new genres, something I'm eagerly awaiting.
I read it as both consoles being new hardware but with the premium model having all the extras on it.
Something about this part of the rumor doesn't sit right with me. I mean, really thinking about it, what input would MS really need regarding the next Kinect?
I mean, besides a hardware upgrade and more sophisticated motion tracking algorithms, what extra features could they really need to add to the thing? It's a motion tracking / sound capture device...don't really need a forum to discover the areas where it can be improved.
Yes, they will charge want Kinect or not
Except Kinect Sports and Kinect Sports 2 exist, which actually do interpret speed and angle of movements for many of the activities. Those things happen in a timely fashion as well.
The tracking algorithms are software based. Additionally, there was a Eurogamer article earlier this year stating that its the Xbox 360 that's holding back Kinect in some regard, so a new Xbox might help things out.
And what happens when the old console breaks down?
No backwards compatibility no buy, as far as I'm concerned.
Sorry, I didn't really mean tech race as in how many buzz words can each company cram into their box. I just think they would suffer long term if they don't make the tech one of their priorities. This gen will have lasted 7 years before a next gen console launches, the next round will be as long, if not longer.
Psychotext
Member
Same for me on that one. If I can't play my digital purchases I wont be buying a new console until I'm done with them... which will probably be 2020.
It's obviously not inoperable. It "works". Everything I've tried (not including Kinect Sports 2) seemed like a workaround, though, concealment, sometimes blatant, by limiting the data to be read (arm position at point A, arm position at point B) to an absolute minimum and thereby the extent of the gameplay, discarding everything that's arbitrarily considered not pertinent. We could have something that's more than a Wii experience without the remote. And maybe Microsoft will provide just that. Their focusing on Kinect is a good sign.
infinityBCRT
Member
Increasing resolution, range of operability, capture frame rate and image sensor quality will all go towards improving reading movement. Honestly with the resolution, capture frame rate and image sensor quality I'm absolutely shocked the the Kinect works in the current state that it is. Given that they are fine tuning and optimizing all of the SDKs based off this gimped hardware only means that it will be that much better when going to much more capable hardware.
Kinect is capturing your every move, but there are bandwidth restrictions when sending sound, video, and depth data to the 360 to process and then there's a learning curve for developers to create software that interprets it all.
Rare, for example, said that they made huge strides between the original Kinect Sports and its sequel, enabling things that made playing darts (accurate wrist tracking that influences trajectory) and baseball (letting the player face Kinect with their side) possible, things which they couldn't make work for the first game because the software just wasn't there. Rare has the most impressive Kinect games yet, and they say that there is still a lot more they can do before they need a Kinect 2.0. Never mind the voice control (love it in KS2 and DC2), and then all the non-game applications.
Kinect is a young product. I think Microsoft is taking a similar motion as they did with the original Xbox Live, where they made a significant investment in something they believed would differentiate them. They put out version 1 to learn from for a few years, get feedback from developers, improve the software, and then they'll make 2.0 something that's a considerable leap forward. Microsoft has said that they feel there is far more progress to be made in software before a Kinect hardware revision is necessary.
Microsoft is actually restricting the resolution of Kinect due to Xbox 360 USB limitations. Read.
This.
LQX
Member
Not sure if this is joke or not but I think they should. I like the benefits of installing my games.
I can see it coming out in 2012 but I have a feeling the tech appreciators will be disappointed by all of the systems' guts in the next generation.
Until game dev technology reaches a point where development is at an affordable level for third parties I believe we'll see a relatively stagnant improvement in graphics and hardware, simply more PC-like architecture, and of course the ironic side effect in that game developers will be as prolific as ever with consolitis-afflicted PC games.
I played Tekken 3 on a station that used camera technology to do motion gaming some 10 or so years ago. It was janky, based on gestures, didnt read my movements correctly, frustrated me and left me wanting a joystick almost instantly. I wasn't surprised when my first time using Kinect was a nearly identical experience. I sincerely hope the nextBox doesn't include Kinect in the price.
Until game dev technology reaches a point where development is at an affordable level for third parties I believe we'll see a relatively stagnant improvement in graphics and hardware, simply more PC-like architecture, and of course the ironic side effect in that game developers will be as prolific as ever with consolitis-afflicted PC games.
I played Tekken 3 on a station that used camera technology to do motion gaming some 10 or so years ago. It was janky, based on gestures, didnt read my movements correctly, frustrated me and left me wanting a joystick almost instantly. I wasn't surprised when my first time using Kinect was a nearly identical experience. I sincerely hope the nextBox doesn't include Kinect in the price.
childplease
Banned
Kinect bundled with the next xbox :/ guess I have to skip it then.
Although I am quite happy about a new console coming out, console to pc ports right now are quite lack luster new console means the pc ports can up the graphics a bit.
Although I am quite happy about a new console coming out, console to pc ports right now are quite lack luster new console means the pc ports can up the graphics a bit.
Xplatformer
Member
So, will new hardware result in EA/Tiburon finally trashing that antiquated Madden code that they should have gotten rid of 4 years ago?
Seriously, as bad as BACKBREAKER was, it showed just how non- next gen the current Madden game is.
Jesus.
Sorry ..going off topic.
Seriously, as bad as BACKBREAKER was, it showed just how non- next gen the current Madden game is.
Jesus.
Sorry ..going off topic.
AppleBlade
Member
So you have Kinect the most . . . does that mean you only kinda have the Move and the wii remote.
Not to mention the fact that it would leave them at a huge disadvantage to both the PS4 and even the Wii U. If even Nintendo thinks that DVDs don't have enough space, you can rest assured that 360 discs will be 50GB dual-layer Blu-Rays at minimum.
dragonelite
Member
I'm sure MS want the non-gamer TV and what better in than the Xbox brand? How feasible would a 360 with no optical drive and 16gb of flash storage be? That can play XBL and downloadable content as well as Skype, TV, Netflix integration etc. maybe even offer an optical drive as an add on to allow current 360 games?
Could that be sold for £99 or less in a years time?
The bit that doesn't make sense to me is the kinect as it would double the cost of the system and surely you want the price as low as possible for casuals?
Could that be sold for £99 or less in a years time?
The bit that doesn't make sense to me is the kinect as it would double the cost of the system and surely you want the price as low as possible for casuals?
frontieruk
Member
http://microsoft-news.com/microsoft-planning-to-integrate-kinect-into-next-gen-tvs/
Pinch of salt or wood on the fire???
Pinch of salt or wood on the fire???
you can't release two skus that don't play all the games. Otherwise you'll fragment the market, you'll sell 'basic' skus to people that don't realise you can't play 'full' games, you'll have a smaller addressable market for the big games. It'd be a clusterfuck.
sure it does. 360 will still continue to sell by the bucketload. But it can be supported by third parties well now, and MS can launch a next generation console too.
I don't think it splits consumer dollars either. New generation means selling to people that already have a 360, so its new hardware dollars being spent. And a new console launch can generally firm up ASPs for software, so margins can be maintained - they are eroding rapidly now on PS3/360 as its mass market.
That's exactly how I see it.
I have two XBOXs at home and I don't use them for the same purposes and games, so two different consoles that overlap and compliment each other would fit my situation well.
I also don't mind if the powerfull one is big, just give some flair to its design.
NemesisPrime
Banned
Yep, and Android sucks. So TV manufacturers are better off with Kinecty features and metro interface if the eventual Apple TV surfaces.
How weird will that be.... Kinect on a Sony TV
Not really weird alot of things like this already go in, microsoft doesnt make tvs sony does pretty simple really. Big companys have fingers in all sorts of pies.
molekiller
Banned
Fuck kinect, I don't even have enough space in my gaming room to use it... It may be the time to buy a new PC then...
bigtroyjon
Member
Microsoft currently has two different 360 SKU's and the non Kinect version can't play all the games.
It can be done as long as everything is branded properly.
Noisepurge
Member
the two very different SKU strategy sounds good. Especially if the differences are that deep instead of just Wifi/3G like the upcoming Vita.
(now if only Netflix would be available in Europe)
(now if only Netflix would be available in Europe)
For me, the key question is the bundling of Kinect, and DF's rumour isn't clear if that possibility (probability?) applies to both machines they're talking about here or just the 'set top box' one. I would hope just the set top box (unless a new version is radically better and justifies the extra cost to either the consumer or the budget for other things in the box.)
The dual platform thing doesn't sound too crazy, but would be interesting. Maybe they have two software profiles - one for Kinect-orientated games that will run on both the high end box and the set top box thingy, and one for the high end box only. Kind of like the Playstation Suite/Playstation Vita approach. They'd have to be pretty differentiated for it to work. My only personal concern is whether a focus on the first kind of box could marginalise the second, relatively, depending on the size of the market in general for content for the second kind of box (i.e. if the total 'core' market across MS's hardcore box, Wii-U, PS4 will continue to drive most publisher interest). The second kind of box would be more my kind of console, so I would hope this kind of bet-hedging wouldn't compromise it. I would hope if they are going to split the two platforms that MS will step up and support the core platform as aggressively as they're appearing to weigh in behind Kinect.
The dual platform thing doesn't sound too crazy, but would be interesting. Maybe they have two software profiles - one for Kinect-orientated games that will run on both the high end box and the set top box thingy, and one for the high end box only. Kind of like the Playstation Suite/Playstation Vita approach. They'd have to be pretty differentiated for it to work. My only personal concern is whether a focus on the first kind of box could marginalise the second, relatively, depending on the size of the market in general for content for the second kind of box (i.e. if the total 'core' market across MS's hardcore box, Wii-U, PS4 will continue to drive most publisher interest). The second kind of box would be more my kind of console, so I would hope this kind of bet-hedging wouldn't compromise it. I would hope if they are going to split the two platforms that MS will step up and support the core platform as aggressively as they're appearing to weigh in behind Kinect.
You can't convince me that MS won't launch a new Xbox next year when their current marketing strategy bullet point(Kinect) is being added to TV's, PC's and more and from the looks of it the PC version will be superior too.
I'm starting to connect the dots. If MS adds the W8 App Store to the Kinect enabled devices like TV's, PC's and more they could have their very own 'app store' the Windows way, so not bound to Apple hardware but available on a range of all sorts of devices. By the end of 2012 they could outflank Sony by launching the Xbox Ten and wage thermonuclear war on Nintendo. The Xbox 'Loop' would be the stand-alone 'casual' streaming box that gives access to the App Store in 2013. So they don't piss off the people they signed with to include Kinect in their devices in 2012.
If these rumors are true, I could see the set-top box only handling xbox-live Arcade games and no retail games. Maybe even with less power, and restrict the development of arcade titles to these specs.
This is just me, making sense of this rumor, I have no idea, if such a thing would even make sense from a business standpoint.
This is just me, making sense of this rumor, I have no idea, if such a thing would even make sense from a business standpoint.
I doubt that. There is way too much money to be made in assecories, so the two SKU approach means there´ll be ways to "upgrade" the entry point SKU. If they´d differentiate them softwarewise too, they´d reliquish good money, and I can´t see them do that.