I still consider this the biggest tragedy in the history of gaming. Sega was on such an unbelievable creative roll with the DC and we haven't seen anything like that from a publisher before or since.
Which will be remembered as the biggest failure, Dreamcast or Vita?
The Dreamcast was basically the Wii U done right.
It came out nearly a year before the competition, had unique features and had one of the best launch lineups in history. Unlike the Wii U, Sega took advantage of being first and really pumped out quality software for the first year.
Once the PS2, Xbox and Gamecube hit, it just wasn't enough and all of the sudden they were underpowered again.
It's ironic that the gif you chose to salute the Dreamcast comes from a franchise that pretty directly helped to kill it.
U know in italian sega means fap right?ALL HAIL SEGA
I was under the impression that N64 piracy was pretty much a non-issue :OI know the thing was hacked/pirated to kingdom come, but nothing worse than the PS1 and N64 at the time...really,
Very nice numbers to know. I don't see much of an impact there of piracy on the DC...RE: Piracy
Insofar as piracy as purportedly a major factor in the DC's failure, it should manifest itself in an abnormally low software tie ratio. I have complete NPD figures for the Dreamcast through beginning of 2003 (so this should be missing a tiny bit of long tail but not much).
The hardware LTD in the US as of this point was 4.1 million. Software LTD was 27.2 million. That's a 6.6 tie ratio. September 1999 to early 2003 is 3.25 years.
http://www.joystiq.com/2008/04/24/npds-latest-software-tie-ratios-for-consoles/ -- Apr 2008, and figures come directly from NPD
2.5 years Xbox 360: 7.5
1.5 years Wii: 5.3
1.5 years PS3: 4.6
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=23308 -- Apr 2009, and these figures are ballpark rather than exact:
3.5 years Xbox 360: 8.3
2.5 years Wii: 6.2
2.5 years PS3: 6.5
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/...e_Software_Sales_Keeping_Up_With_Hardware.php -- Apr 2011
5.5 years Xbox 360: 8.9
4.5 years Wii: 7.2
4.5 years PS3: 7.8
I don't have a figure to get a direct 3.25 year comparison between the generations, but it looks like at most that piracy accounted for a 1-ish game per person "loss", or no more than 15% reduced software sales, as compared to the current generation of consoles. An alternative hypothesis is that piracy was a big deal but non-pirate DC owners bought tons of extra software to compensate, which I feel is both highly unlikely and renders the "piracy hurt software sales" claim moot because the claim is about overall software sales capacity and thus best measured by a mean type measure like tie ratio rather than a median type measure.
Piracy was not responsible for the DC's death in the US.
Once again, there are several reasons why you are wrong. First, the fact that the PS1 and PS2 also had massive amounts of piracy, but did great, should show how piracy had nothing to do with the DC's failure. This applies to the DS as well.Piracy certainly mattered on the DC, and you're rewriting history to say that it didn't. Sure, there was piracy on the PSX, PS2, and other disc-based consoles (heck even carts as well), but the Dreamcast was the single easiest console in history to pirate games for. It launched right at the boom of disc piracy in the US, had practically no anti-piracy measures (a disc launcher was required at first, and then a few months later, not needed anymore), and right at the dawn of consumer broadband in the US. Every person that I knew who owned a Dreamcast had pirated games, had an entire catalog of pirated games, where as it was relatively rare on the PSX... You'd know "that guy" who had a mod chip on the PSX or could use a boot loader to swap discs, but everybody (who I knew) who had a DC had a catalog of some 20 or 30 pirates games. It took an hour to download, burn, and play a pirated game on 3MB cable internet, which was as long as it took to get to the mall and back and every game was available on Napster clones.
No, that was because it was a juggernaut. And also because DC software sales weren't good enough, but that was mostly because of somewhat slow hardware sales, not because of piracy. The number one reason for them though was because of the PS2 hype, I think. Remember how crazy it was?Piracy may not have directly impacted Sega in the games that they published, but there was a publisher exodus to the PS2 when it came out, not only because it was a juggernaut, but because compared to the Dreamcast, it was leagues more difficult to pirate on out of the box.
They lost money for five years, not three years. But otherwise yeah, this is true.Sega's enormous debt, their inability to turn profits for some three years, several high profile marketing disasters (millions spent in online advertising at a time when online console play was not a consideration of most gamers), the juggernaut that was PS2, and the publisher exodus which was spurred by the ease of piracy on the Dreamcast, led to it's downfall.
This all being said -- DC outputting to a CRT monitor via WXVGA was a thing of beauty even years after the PS2 released.
No, it's because they mismanaged the 32X, Saturn, and Dreamcast, all one after another. Sega would not have gone under because of one failed console, they could survive that. You see that from those Saturn numbers -- the system's failure is somewhat covered up thanks to continuing Genesis/GG sales. What Sega couldn't survive was multiple major failures in a row. And that's what happened.Sega going under was totally due to how they mismanaged the dreamcast.
Aquamarine's yearly revenue post bears this out.
Now I'm subscribed to this thread so I can just pull up two great pieces of analysis that can cited whenever this question comes up again.
I think that "without the crutch of 16-bit gen system sales" is the key phrase, myself. I mean, unless you have proof that Sega lost more money on the Dreamcast than the Saturn, I think that both systems did similarly badly. The difference was that Sega didn't have other things holding up their finances anymore in the DC era, since their successful businesses (Genesis, arcades, and such) had faded or were gone. And also of course there was the problem of having two straight disastrously failed consoles; Sega didn't have the money to survive multiple disasters in a row.Well yeah, it's self-explanatory that the Saturn did extremely poorly and negatively contributed to Sega's financials. That's not what I'm denying.
What I'm trying to say is that ultimately, it was during the Dreamcast's time in the marketplace, without the crutch of 16-bit gen system sales, that caused the company to post massive FY losses.
The key phrase here is "buried in debt"---only during the Dreamcast's tenure did we see that happen (since Sega spent 42.8 billion yen during FY 1998 in special losses for Dreamcast production), EVEN IF the Saturn had built up the requisites for Dreamcast to accrue a bunch of debt.
Dreamcast didn't stave off any of those problems...it just exacerbated them.
If we had better documentation of Genesis / 32X / CD sales curves, we could get a better picture on how Saturn losses in the Consumer Products division were "cushioned" by their success.
Looks like a full quarter of Sega's FY2000 losses come from the fading arcade business, and I imagine that things weren't better the years after that. That's a pretty big impact! 12 billion to 2 billion... pretty catastrophic when the arcade business had always been Sega's biggest moneymaker, I believe.Not even CLOSE to the amount of impact that the Dreamcast had on the system.
The most dramatic impact is FY 1999 - FY 2000:
Arcade Sales + Operations:
FY 1999:
~12.7 billion yen operating profit
(contributed positively to 2.088 billion yen operating profit)
FY 2000:
~2.0 billion yen operating profit
(contributed positively to a ~40 billion operating LOSS)
The YOY discrepancy here (contributing to that ~40 billion operating loss) is around 10.7 billion yen. FY 2001 contributed much more positively to the bottom line.
If these arguments are somehow incoherent, please forgive me...it's 3:41 AM where I am and I might be delirious from lack of sleep.
Sega spent all their money on two incredibly expensive Shenmue games and had no money left to support the console.
Shenmue 3 pls Sega.
Reminds me of something recent...
Sega fans tend to claim that the DC had the best launch lineup ever but what most of them don't know is that when the system really launched a year earlier in Japan it had absolutely the worst possible launch lineup.
No, it's because they mismanaged the 32X, Saturn, and Dreamcast, all one after another. Sega would not have gone under because of one failed console, they could survive that. You see that from those Saturn numbers -- the system's failure is somewhat covered up thanks to continuing Genesis/GG sales. What Sega couldn't survive was multiple major failures in a row. And that's what happened.
Speaking of old consoles, I was surprised to know that N64 sold more than PS1 in its beginning in the U.S. I found a press release saying that N64 outsold PS1 for 8 straight months on U.S. since launch.
PS1 always stayed ahead in installed base, but the N64 started much stronger than I imagined and in the second half of 1997, began to lose momentum.
It always suprises me that the saturn outsold the n64 lifetime in japan
Looks like a full quarter of Sega's FY2000 losses come from the fading arcade business, and I imagine that things weren't better the years after that. That's a pretty big impact! 12 billion to 2 billion... pretty catastrophic when the arcade business had always been Sega's biggest moneymaker, I believe.
Let's see.Why couldn't Sega hold out until 2006?
Just to be clear, the extraordinary losses Sega wrote down in March 1998 was related to 40 billion yen losses accumulated by Sega of America Inc to handle the Saturn business.The key phrase here is "buried in debt"---only during the Dreamcast's tenure did we see that happen (since Sega spent 42.8 billion yen during FY 1998 in special losses for Dreamcast production), EVEN IF the Saturn had built up the requisites for Dreamcast to accrue a bunch of debt.P
Gaming seemed so interesting in the 90's into early 2000's. Very Japanese-focused.
Second, most people in 1999-2001 did not have cable internet. There's a reason that the DC had only a phone modem in it, and that the cable modem for it is so, so rare -- few people had cable during the DC's life. It takes a long time to download a game on 56k. Most people didn't do it. If you think that a significant percentage of the DC's userbase had cable internet, you are wrong.
Similar but different. EA is not the mammoth it was then, at the turn of the millennium it was an uncontrollable beast. Activision and Ubisoft were nothing compared to EA.
Just to be clear, the extraordinary losses Sega wrote down in March 1998 was related to 40 billion yen losses accumulated by Sega of America Inc to handle the Saturn business.
http://m.gamespot.com/news/sega-news-from-japan-2462352
The reason why I think piracy had an impact is because of personal experience.
I assure you the downfall from PC Engine to PC-FX (with the useless SuperGrafx in between) is more tragecomedic.Sega probably has the most interesting/tragecomedic history of any publisher/console manufacturer.
Those were losses accumulated by SoA through the Saturn years.Sega Enterprises wrote off Sega of America's losses to dispose inventories, to "improve asset quality," and to prepare for the launch of the Sega Dreamcast.
I guess "Dreamcast preparation" would have been a better term to use than "Dreamcast production."
Those were losses accumulated by SoA through the Saturn years.
More than "to prepare" for a new system, they were caused by the underwhelming Saturn sales in US (less than 2 million Saturn sold) and wrote down by the main company at a later time.
I agree with you that DC was a financial disaster though.
Sega going under was totally due to how they mismanaged the dreamcast.
Now I'm not saying this little scenario was how it went down everywhere, but I'm pretty sure the people I'm referring to weren't the only one behaving this way. Piracy wasn't the one and only cause, but IMO it was definitely a factor.
It was far too easy to pirate games and they couldn't do anything about it.
Firstly, I want to thank you for your thoughtful replies and your contribution to intellectual discourse. Wonderful posts.
Secondly, here is the full spectrum of revenue / profit within Sega's arcade segments:
...
As you can see, Sega was sufficiently able to stabilize Arcade profits despite the massive drop from FY 1999 - FY 2000.
Yeah, the residual sales were key. The Genesis was a quite successful console in Europe and the Americas.Ahh that makes more sense.I was really confused by those numbers because my first impression was that those add-ons were a healthy investment. Yet when presented with solid revenue records I didn't see how I could argue against what Sega did during that time. Residual sles from their best selling console and handheld masking their losses puts everything into better focus.
I know there's a thread for this now, but yeah, the N64 started off well, quite unlike the PS1 or, worse, Saturn. Mediocre sales were more than good enough to put Sony far ahead of Sega, unfortunately...Speaking of old consoles, I was surprised to know that N64 sold more than PS1 in its beginning in the U.S. I found a press release saying that N64 outsold PS1 for 8 straight months on U.S. since launch.
PS1 always stayed ahead in installed base, but the N64 started much stronger than I imagined and in the second half of 1997, began to lose momentum.
You should care about how awful the Dreamcast's Japanese launch was because a bad launch leaves a lasting bad impression. Think of the Saturn in the US, where everyone making a list of Sega's mistakes always starts with the $400 price and "it's available now" launch. By the end of the year Sega had a better lineup, it was in stores, and the price was down, but the bad impression stuck. In Japan, the DC had very few games at first, limited supply, etc. It was not good. By the time the games finally started coming, a lot of people had moved on to waiting for the PS2... Sega failed to bring over much of their fading Japanese Saturn userbase to the DC. A better launch probably wouldn't have turned that all around, but the decision to rush it out for Christmas ['98], even if they didn't have many systems to sell and had no must-have games yet (Virtua Fighter 3tb wasn't it, even in Japan), was perhaps a mistake. I can see why they did it, though; it gets press, attention, and sales dollars, after all. I don't know if they had a good option... they were kind of stuck, given their terrible financial state. But maybe wait a few months, if they could... sure they'd miss Christmas, but to avoid a launch that poor... maybe? I'm not sure.Unless I live in Japan why should I care about their launch line up. All I care is what I was able to get day one in the US. Which was the greatest launch line up in the history of gaming that will never be touched.
Revenue is the amount they got in, and income is the amount they actually made, right? Not having income for the earlier years is a problem, because that'd quite possibly be the more profitable part for arcades, yes? Otherwise though, this obviously shows that Sega was good at making a profit from their Japanese arcades at least some of the time, even while arcades everywhere else had pretty much ceased to exist by the end of the '90s.Firstly, I want to thank you for your thoughtful replies and your contribution to intellectual discourse. Wonderful posts.
Secondly, here is the full spectrum of revenue / profit within Sega's arcade segments:
Sega Enterprises
Arcade Sector (Sales + Operations)
Net sales + Operating Profit
Sega CD / 32X / Genesis / Saturn / Dreamcast / Post-Dreamcast Eras
FY 1992:
Revenue: 77 billion yen
FY 1993:
Revenue: 117 billion yen
FY 1994:
Revenue: 114 billion yen
FY 1995:
Revenue: 135 billion yen
FY 1996:
Revenue: 167 billion yen
FY 1997:
Revenue: 186 billion yen
FY 1998:
Operating Income: 22.236 billion yen
Revenue: 218.470 billion yen
FY 1999:
Operating Income: 12.730 billion yen
Revenue: 182.518 billion yen
FY 2000:
Operating Income: 1.938 billion yen
Revenue: 153.131 billion yen
FY 2001:
Operating Income: 17.876 billion yen
Revenue: 136.882 billion yen
FY 2002:
Operating Income: 10.071 billion yen
Revenue: 141.183 billion yen
FY 2003:
Operating Income: 18.942 billion yen
Revenue: 145.136 billion yen
FY 2004:
Operating Income: 18.156 billion yen
Revenue: 144.729 billion yen
(Sega + Sammy Merger)
As you can see, Sega was sufficiently able to stabilize Arcade profits despite the massive drop from FY 1999 - FY 2000.
Sega of America sold maybe a tenth as many Saturns as they had Genesises plus Sega CDs and 32Xes. Actually, maybe less than a tenth. US Saturn sales were what, 1.5-2.5 million? Those are similar to the US Sega CD numbers, never mind the Genesis. Sega of America shut down most of their internal development teams, downsized, etc, etc, but still, there were going to be some major losses as a result of that failure. You can't see your sales collapse that badly without repercussions...I assure you the downfall from PC Engine to PC-FX (with the useless SuperGrafx in between) is more tragecomedic.
Those were losses accumulated by SoA through the Saturn years.
More than "to prepare" for a new system, they were caused by the underwhelming Saturn sales in US (less than 2 million Saturn sold) and wrote down by the main company at a later time.
I agree with you that DC was a financial disaster though.
The only problem it had was VMU battery and odd controller. And most games where ports of PS1 like WWF Attitude ect.