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Permadeath 'Long' games: Darkest Dungeon v XCOM and the expectation of failure.

Aureon

Please do not let me serve on a jury. I am actually a crazy person.
[Warning: This is going to be long.]
TL;DR: Players want to win. Wins are more satisfying when hard to get. How to make a game that has satisfying wins, but still lets the player win and doesn't drive him/her away?

X-COM(2) and Darkest Dungeon are games with obviously heavy inter-influence, and i'm choosing them to talk about possible approaches to strategic permadeath.
Obviously, a long game can't straight up display a YOU LOSE, START BACK upon a loss: Thereby, mechanics to punish failure, but not cripplingly so, are needed.

One very important point to make straight out is that, in reality, what matters isn't the actual possibility of failure, but rather the perception of that.

Darkest Dungeon, like Dark Souls brilliantly did before it, plays it's card very, very straight: This is a hard game, and you will lose. You will die.
The implicit meaning behind that is: Failure is expected. If you 'win', you're defying expectations, not complying to them.
This is accomplished, first and foremost, thematically: "Dark" in the name, proud of being difficult, and desperate characters are a staple.

XCOM is much subtler than that: While the premise is, storywise, an unwinnable situation - it's a "normal" unwinnable, the kind games throw at you every day of the week and twice on sundays.
The fact that you can actually have setbacks, and lose, doesn't quite kick in until the first soldier death. In that moment, you understand that the game isn't fucking around, and will kick your ass if you're not careful.

XCOM creates additional tension by pretending you can get into a total loss situation, which is actually pretty unrealistic - especially in xcom2, and especially after the first two months.

[Section 2: Difficulty Curve]
In this regard, it's very important to note one thing: Players like winning.
It seems obvious, but it can get out of focus. Players like to win: CPU enemies exist, ultimately, to be defeated. Difficult enemies do not exist to make the player lose: They exist to make the eventual victory more meaningful by creating a expectation of failure.
Achievements aren't compared against nothingness: Players are happy when they exceed their own expectations, and unhappy when they fall short of them.
Proper 'hard' games, by creating very low expectations - that is, telling the player they will fail - make eventual victory more meaningful.

The 'combat' gameplay of the two games is pretty hard to compare, except for one fact: You can lose missions, and losing missions will set you back.

Losing missions, however, set you back in two very different ways:
- Darkest Dungeon slows you down, but ultimately you know that you'll make it - There's no failure state. It just means more grinding.
- XCOM doesn't let you grind back up. Ever. This is a train and you can't stop it - only steer. Failure will not only slow you down, but will have lasting effects beyond the loss of what you brought it.

On the surface, it may seem XCOM's system is much superior - it provides just as much, if not more, tension - but doesn't trigger as much grinding to get back up.

However, it has the very harsh side-effect of capping the difficulty. If the difficulty assumes no failures, any major failure can actually lead to a failure state - one that actually happens, and not just the threat of it.

If, on the other hand, the difficulty assumes a non-zero amount of failures, not failing will mean the game is undertuned, and as victories snowball into other victories, the player will snowball into making the game trivial or near so.
Which is what happens in XCOM.

Darkest Dungeon, instead, is free to make the later game as hard as it wants: If the player failed, s/he can just grind back up until s/he's ready.

There'd be a third option - Pretending there's a penalty, and lying to the player about it, making the penalty irrelevant under the hood. This can be optimal, but lying to the player is much like a bluff - if the player discovers that the game is auto-adjusting it's difficulty, the sense of accomplishment and expectation of failure 'hard' games worked so hard to build is immediately shattered, and can never be gained back.
It can also mean the optimal gameplay path is losing on purpose, which is extremely unfun.

-

One specific way in which the punishment is delivered by not going into hurting the player's gameplay is through attachment.
You nurtured that soldier, you knew the name, the quirks, you decided what it did. You were responsible, and it died on your watch..

In that, XCOM and DD employ similar tools:
XCOM has a very complex aesthetic customization system. This isn't gameplay relevant, but creates very real attachment in some players.
DD doesn't have that, and supplies "personality" through an array of "Quirks" - minor gameplay differences, which soldiers can get and lose at will.

In addition to that, both games employ extensive RPG elements.

XCOM's has the flaw of being completely useless on players that don't care for aesthetic customization, but doesn't ask anything of the player beyond the effort to set them up.

DD creates a system where choosing the party optimally requires a lot of setup, which there can be 25 soldiers in a roster and 10 quirks per soldier, a lot of which are extremely situational and extremely strong\debilitating in their specific situation.
This is undue mechanical complexity for a mechanic that's fundamentally out of the players' control (Albeit it can be curbed through the Sanitarium), in a game that already asks a lot of setup of the player. On a large enough roster, most players will just go "Eh, fuck it" and ignore completely the system, reducing it to a minor annoyance.


-

Both games employ a strategic layer, and with it, RPG elements.
Both are extremely relevant, and definitely cannot be ignored.

However, Darkest Dungeon focuses on balance, while XCOM focuses on discovery.

There's inherent fun in discovering new things: They make you rethink approaches, and provide novelty. XCOM knows this very well, and doesn't tell you what's happening before you reach it: Upgrades, skills, facilities and enemies are all hidden or vague until you unlock them, and can cause massive differences in play. (Or break the game completely, see: Mimic Beacon.)
The approach is risky, and i don't think vanilla XCOM, much less vanilla XCOM2, sees it pay off as much as it should. However, Long War proved to us it can do great things.

Darkest Dungeon doesn't really provide you with anything: All actual choices are provided either at start, or anyhow within the first 10% of the game, and from there on out only enemy design and increasing difficulty will challenge your assumptions.
In my opinion, this is a major failure of Darkest Dungeon, which has lead to the need of very gimmicky trial-based boss gameplay to keep things novel, and for a increasingly difficult curve to keep it challenging.
 
Firstly, great work.

A note about discovery though: could you elaborate on Long War making "Discovery" pay off more than either vanilla XCOM or XCOM 2? In my experience I spent a lot more time in Long War on the wikis rather than experimenting in the world, because experimenting in the world usually meant 'die instantly'.
 
Firstly, great work.

A note about discovery though: could you elaborate on Long War making "Discovery" pay off more than either vanilla XCOM or XCOM 2? In my experience I spent a lot more time in Long War on the wikis rather than experimenting in the world, because experimenting in the world usually meant 'die instantly'.

Discovery, in difficult games, is more about discovering how to use something, rather than the mere fact it exists.

Long War gives every piece of equipment and skill space to breath, not allowing the player to leapfrog anything and strongly encouraging to use them properly.
A major issue in the gradual unlocking of tools is that 'old' tools will get outdated, and if the game is paced briskly, said tool can end up never getting used - wasted design space.

It also ameliorates the issue of getting "further" than the difficulty curve, mostly by just having a harder difficulty layer.
 
Can you provide an example for the "Third" option you mentioned.

Something like Resident Evil 4?

I feel like this is the snafu of the idea we call difficulty in RPG systems. Make the game too flexible and you trivialize it or add too many variables to make combat meanigfuly under the player's control, make it too stringent and you can frustrate many players or turn it into an effective puzzle and the the fine line is damn fine.

Still, I would rather be engaged by new stuff or new applications of old stuff than just raw numbers (That said, Raw numbers can change the gameplay greatly, Fire Emblem is a very large fan of this).
 
Yeah, XCOM 2 in particular wants players, at every turn, to think they're going to lose. But that's it--it wants to give this expectation and nothing more, with the developers giving a bevy of opportunities for it to happen: from new, bizarre enemies or unexpected developments; to passive things like environmental destruction and/or hazards. It throws a lot at players with no expectations for them to learn immediately, but in hindsight, and it can be very punishing for the unprepared. It is a game of discovery, adaptation, and triumph.

XCOM 2 leans heavily on random chance to provide players with unexpected outcomes, further muddying the waters. Shots can miss, enemies abilities can vary, cover can fall apart, and enemy patrols can be stumbled into or called in--at all times, the situation can change unpredictably. This can also work in the players favour--soldiers can bleed out instead of die, squads can retreat, and enemies can experience similar setbacks. But then it twists the known and introduces enemies that break these established rules, setting players with too much confidence back until they learn again.
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Bringing XCOM 2's systems together is an unspoken gentleman's agreement: the game actually wants players to triumph and is willing to lie to accomplish this. In other words, it presents players with a reality--its systems--and then changes things, without a word, to give them a better chance. Yes--XCOM 2 cheats in the player's favour, because it wants them to pull through, no matter how dire things get. Because that's where the fun in the game is; it's a masochistic game in the very best way possible--intentionally punishing and rewarding the player at its leisure.

For some reason it makes me think of GlaDOS. (Not Portal, but GlaDOS specifically.)


Unfortunately I don't remember EU vividly enough, and haven't played Darkest Dungeon, so I can't comment on them specifically. I do know that XCOM: EW does a lot of similar stuff, but XCOM 2 definitely goes further with it.
Something like Resident Evil 4?

I feel like this is the snafu of the idea we call difficulty in RPG systems. Make the game too flexible and you trivialize it or add too many variables to make combat meanigfuly under the player's control, make it too stringent and you can frustrate many players or turn it into an effective puzzle and the the fine line is damn fine.

Still, I would rather be engaged by new stuff or new applications of old stuff than just raw numbers (That said, Raw numbers can change the gameplay greatly, Fire Emblem is a very large fan of this).

RE4 is a good one. IIRC, it adaptively adjusts the item boxes you destroy to give you the items you need. So it twists the scarcity the series is known for in the player's favour. Like XCOM 2, it does this to the benefit of the player's enjoyment.

It's weird, but some of the best games are designed with fun over fairness, without really mentioning it to the player at all.
 
Can you provide an example for the "Third" option you mentioned.
Fittingly enough, one of the best examples is actually the original 1994 X-Com. That game has a (surprisingly still intact) reputation for extreme difficulty, but it's mostly a facade. The strategic layer is extremely lenient, allowing you to fail numerous times without dooming yourself. It's able to get away with this by being very vague about how well you're doing overall. With only the impression left by brutality of the tactical combat and the occasional warning when something has gone wrong to guide it, your mind is left to wander, primed to assume you're always just scraping by when in reality you're doing fine, making for a very tense but actually relatively safe experience.

The new XCom on the other hand gives you constant feedback so you always know exactly how well you're doing. Without the vagueness of the original, they have to actually back up the threatening atmosphere that the series is known for in order to make it feel real, so has pretty much zero tolerance for error. I've had entire campaigns ruined by a single innocuous mistake, and it's not fun. The sequel does a much better job of seeming threatening without being overly punishing with things like the avatar project having a grace period after filling up, but it's still nowhere near the masterful balance of the 1994 original.
 
Nice post. One thing I find interesting about the difficulty...

RPS Jake Solomon interview

“Some of them think that the right way to play is to beat the mission without losing anybody,” said Solomon. “That’s fine, it’s certainly fine to think that’s the way you want to play the game, but that I think has led to some frustration in people if they view XCOM as a puzzle – that there is an optimal path so that if you do things right nobody dies. XCOM is not actually a puzzle, it has all these much more unpredictable elements to it. There are cases where it’s difficult to imagine getting through a mission without somebody dying.”

To me, it almost seems like the design of the difficulty in regards to losing a soldier does not match what we actually got. He's the designer, but I don't feel like the above matches the reality of the product.
The correct way to play is without losing someone, if the goal is to see the credits. The battles do feel like puzzles, even with the RNG hits and such. There is an optimal way to play to avoid most all of the deaths (not talking about legendary, haven't played it yet). Everything snowballs in XCOM, as you wrote, so I have trouble viewing soldier death like he does. Not when combined with the high cost of leveled soldiers (that you don't get to pick what class they are) once a month, and the cost of buying a raw rookie with terrible aim. Maybe having soldiers gain some exp at base could give the roster some depth. Assign them to missions...something to do with the strategic layer. The game could even be harder then.
 
The sequel does a much better job of seeming threatening without being overly punishing with things like the avatar project having a grace period after filling up, but it's still nowhere near the masterful balance of the 1994 original.

I've always found that interesting about X-Com; I lost a lot more campaigns to restarts than actual defeat (well, this is true of any game where you think you can see the end coming a mile off, I suppose).

Also the fact that human lives were a lot cheaper in X-Com definitely lent itself to the perception that you were always getting your ass kicked, but in truth since ability was more tied to gear in X-Com the main reason you didn't want to get veterans killed was just due to attachment and the possibility of group panic.

To me, it almost seems like the design of the difficulty in regards to losing a soldier does not match what we actually got. He's the designer, but I don't feel like the above matches the reality of the product.
The correct way to play is without losing someone, if the goal is to see the credits. The battles do feel like puzzles, even with the RNG hits and such. There is an optimal way to play to avoid most all of the deaths (not talking about legendary, haven't played it yet). Everything snowballs in XCOM, as you wrote, so I have trouble viewing soldier death like he does. Not when combined with the high cost of leveled soldiers (that you don't get to pick what class they are) once a month, and the cost of buying a raw rookie with terrible aim. Maybe having soldiers gain some exp at base could give the roster some depth. Assign them to missions...something to do with the strategic layer. The game could even be harder then.

I agree, at least at higher tiers of plays. Perhaps for casual players there's no good outcome but at higher tiers of play failure (like success) can also snowball heavily (at least combined with wound timers), and thus losing a soldier is a suboptimal outcome that can almost always be puzzled-around.
 
the challenge is really that there are 4 different things that change what the appropriate difficulty should be:
  • how the player decides to progress (eg. investing in short-term benefits vs long-term benefits)
  • how good the player is at strategic decision-making / resource-management / optimization in general
  • how experienced the player is at the game (eg. seeing traps ahead of time, knowing what builds/compositions will do well for fighting future enemies)
  • how difficult the individual player wants the game to be

it's hard to do it well for most developers. rubber-banding the difficulty can work, but i think that if a developer is talented enough to do that without failing they would be talented enough to just balance the game well to begin with

i'd prefer if devs just fine-tune and focus the game for a subset of people instead of trying to cater to everyone. i'd rather get 2 good games of this type per year rather than 10 mediocre ones

my main gripe is the optimal way to play should never be the opposite of the fun way to play.
xcom:eu suffered from this a lot. meld in enemy within didn't really fix the problem. i expect xcom2 is more band-aid non-solutions, but i haven't played it yet
i haven't played too much darkest dungeon but retreating mid-encounter seems anticlimactic and grindy

i find that japanese devs are generally pretty good at making games fun for 1 playthrough. they tend to mess up the leveling up / grinding / progression aspect, but once you play enough of them you can basically learn how not to overlevel

the more open-ended replayable games tend to not have much difficulty because they keep trying to sell copies to people who don't actually want to play a hard game

rogue-likes are exception to that, but they tend to get boring after a while because you basically figure out the game and either know how to win or die to RNG.
it's not a problem for a game to get boring after you beat it a few times, but a lot of games have so much crap in them that's only worth learning if you're going to play for 1000 hours

only symmetrical stuff like RTS games and 4X games work for thousands and thousands of hours in my experience, but there needs to be a ton of work to improve the AI for the single-player variants
 
I personally believe that the more punishing a 'fail' state is in a game, eg. permadeath, the more control the game have to give the players.

That's why RNG is bullshit in those kinds of games.
 
None of you know the black damnable, eldritch horror that is the RNG unless you've played Mordheim. Jesus christ...it makes XCOM and Darkest Dungeon look easy in comparsion.
 
Can you provide an example for the "Third" option you mentioned.

The worst example is probably any Bethesda game. There's RPG elements, but all enemies scale up with you. Getting stronger means stronger enemies, meaning it's fundamentally useless to play the RPG layer.

Strategy games are rarer, especially on the strategy layer. They usually lie to the player, but not by auto-adjusting difficulty - simply by not being exact on how well you're doing.

Nice post. One thing I find interesting about the difficulty...

RPS Jake Solomon interview

“Some of them think that the right way to play is to beat the mission without losing anybody,” said Solomon. “That’s fine, it’s certainly fine to think that’s the way you want to play the game, but that I think has led to some frustration in people if they view XCOM as a puzzle – that there is an optimal path so that if you do things right nobody dies. XCOM is not actually a puzzle, it has all these much more unpredictable elements to it. There are cases where it’s difficult to imagine getting through a mission without somebody dying.”

To me, it almost seems like the design of the difficulty in regards to losing a soldier does not match what we actually got. He's the designer, but I don't feel like the above matches the reality of the product.
The correct way to play is without losing someone, if the goal is to see the credits. The battles do feel like puzzles, even with the RNG hits and such. There is an optimal way to play to avoid most all of the deaths (not talking about legendary, haven't played it yet). Everything snowballs in XCOM, as you wrote, so I have trouble viewing soldier death like he does. Not when combined with the high cost of leveled soldiers (that you don't get to pick what class they are) once a month, and the cost of buying a raw rookie with terrible aim. Maybe having soldiers gain some exp at base could give the roster some depth. Assign them to missions...something to do with the strategic layer. The game could even be harder then.

I agree XCOM goes too far in pretending your soldiers are expendable, and then it takes 40 missions to make a Colonel. Like Darkest Dungeon, in the lategame, there's no such thing as a minor setback - losing a soldier is a MAJOR issue. It shouldn't be so, if setbacks are actually part of the game.

the challenge is really that there are 4 different things that change what the appropriate difficulty should be:
  • how the player decides to progress (eg. investing in short-term benefits vs long-term benefits)
  • how good the player is at strategic decision-making / resource-management / optimization in general
  • how experienced the player is at the game (eg. seeing traps ahead of time, knowing what builds/compositions will do well for fighting future enemies)
  • how difficult the individual player wants the game to be

it's hard to do it well for most developers. rubber-banding the difficulty can work, but i think that if a developer is talented enough to do that without failing they would be talented enough to just balance the game well to begin with

i'd prefer if devs just fine-tune and focus the game for a subset of people instead of trying to cater to everyone. i'd rather get 2 good games of this type per year rather than 10 mediocre ones

my main gripe is the optimal way to play should never be the opposite of the fun way to play.
xcom:eu suffered from this a lot. meld in enemy within didn't really fix the problem. i expect xcom2 is more band-aid non-solutions, but i haven't played it yet
i haven't played too much darkest dungeon but retreating mid-encounter seems anticlimactic and grindy

i find that japanese devs are generally pretty good at making games fun for 1 playthrough. they tend to mess up the leveling up / grinding / progression aspect, but once you play enough of them you can basically learn how not to overlevel

the more open-ended replayable games tend to not have much difficulty because they keep trying to sell copies to people who don't actually want to play a hard game

rogue-likes are exception to that, but they tend to get boring after a while because you basically figure out the game and either know how to win or die to RNG.
it's not a problem for a game to get boring after you beat it a few times, but a lot of games have so much crap in them that's only worth learning if you're going to play for 1000 hours

only symmetrical stuff like RTS games and 4X games work for thousands and thousands of hours in my experience, but there needs to be a ton of work to improve the AI for the single-player variants

Civilization (And XCOM!) is an example of a game that uses idiosyncratic difficulty well. Top-tier (Legend \ Immortal+) is absolutely ruthless, while lower difficulties offer varying degrees of cheating to help you out.
Better AI is always a holy grail, though. Making an AI ACTUALLY play to win can be a surefire way to make the game unfun.
 
XCOM and DD definitely give the proper feeling of tension and expectation of failure in them. I do think it's a bit of a let down that, when you're brought down by a UFO on Ironman and fight actually get wiped that the game let's you restart the mission, though.

Another game that does expectation of failure right, imo, but in a different way, would be Sunless Sea. When you're making decisions in the story parts of the game, you're given multiple options with varying results that rely on luck and your stats to go properly, there's no skill involved. You have to live with various failures, but when you come out on top on a hard dice roll the relief you feel is amazing.

Civilization (And XCOM!) is an example of a game that uses idiosyncratic difficulty well. Top-tier (Legend \ Immortal+) is absolutely ruthless, while lower difficulties offer varying degrees of cheating to help you out.
Better AI is always a holy grail, though. Making an AI ACTUALLY play to win can be a surefire way to make the game unfun.

On the other hand you have a lot of 4x games that make the AI cheat on higher difficulties rather than play smarter. Which makes the early game a lot more difficult than the late game since the AI is actually just an idiot given super powers that they don't know how to use properly.
 
[Warning: This is going to be long.]
TL;DR: Players want to win. Wins are more satisfying when hard to get. How to make a game that has satisfying wins, but still lets the player win and doesn't drive him/her away?

I dont think this is universally nor provably true.
 
I think the answer in the case of XCOM (and 2) is that you simply play it save scumming while you learn it.

I actually enjoy this process though it makes me wince sometimes. There are so many little wrinkles tactically, you can't really know them until you actually try them.

So I prefer the XCOM setup because if I want to go full hairshirt withering death campaign, I can do that. That's my tragic story of how we tried and failed to defeat the aliens. But while I'm learning the game, I don't feel bad simply reloading a bit. I play by my own rules, I let a few die, some not. How else are you supposed to learn that Bladestorm will trigger on a snakeman attack or that Null Lance psionics shoot through walls, or that codex multiply, etc.
 
Its interesting to think where Fire Emblem fits in this model.

A lot of players will say "it's trail and error, you didn't know reinforcements were going to show up on that spot on that turn until it happens to you once." while other experienced players will tell those players: "You just don't know the game well enough, there are always tells on a map."


I'm playing through Conquest on Hard/Classic and I definitely feel like - this game isn't meant for you to beat certain maps on your first try. There are definitely quirks about each thing where you need to "learn" by being punished at least once. It's funny that I have that expectation, since that's MOSTLY how it goes in JRPGs. You rarely die, outside of boss battles, and even then you rarely die. But I don't have that expectation when playing a platformer like Shovel Knight and Mario. I know that I'm going to die because that's how you learn the stage. There's also just the execution involved in knowing what you need to do, I guess that really isn't an issue in a turn based strategy game.
 
That was a good read. But adaptive difficulty can be played straight too - so the player wants to be challenged. At least that's how I see God Hand.

RE4 is a good one. IIRC, it adaptively adjusts the item boxes you destroy to give you the items you need. So it twists the scarcity the series is known for in the player's favour. Like XCOM 2, it does this to the benefit of the player's enjoyment.

It's weird, but some of the best games are designed with fun over fairness, without really mentioning it to the player at all.
It changes enemies too.
 
I (sadly) haven't played DD, but my two favorite franchises right now are dark souls and xcom. Both are advertised as hard and on both cases, I think it works against the player.

Both dark souls and xcom have amazing learning curves, in my opinion. But they are both games that, in order for you to succeed, is expected from you to actually learn from your mistakes and adjust accordingly. I guess the impact of demons' souls was in large part this; we were not used to its pacing back then, and the game didn't cared for how many hours we played god of war. It drilled, through death, that we should walk slowly, keep our Shield up and analyze enemy behavior.

When dark souls got advertised as a "hard game", it created a situation where people would get frustrated, but not learn, because that's dark souls, baby.

It is exactly what I am seeing with xcom 2. People go into a mission, make a lot of mistakes and then say "wow, this game is very brutal and the rng is bullshit"
It really isn't. You shouldn't expect failure as a feature of the game, you should think about how to prevent it. Failure not as something the game does right (as advertised), but something you did wrong.

The problem with xcom 2, in my opinion, is that the strategy layer isn't doing what is supposed to. Other people have elaborated on that, though, I think RandomSeed put it best.

But I think this is a marketing issue, as well, you should expect failure as a tool to learn, a tough love kind of thing, not as a wall of rng that if you just punch for enough time, you will eventually get through by sheer luck.
 
Fire Emblem takes an interesting approach to perma-death, because it's a linear narrative where additional units are given to you at you progress through the game. These new recruits are capable of handling whatever the game is throwing at you right now, albeit with a little difficulty. The units you nurse from the start of the game typically end up stronger, but not especially so, which helps keep the difficulty even regardless of how many people you lose.

The DS Fire Emblem game takes things a step further, with a hidden mechanic that will literally give you nameless units for free, if you ever end up with fewer units than the map requires. And these units are dynamically statted to match your party, rather than the level you're about to enter, so you don't feel like the game is carrying you (even though it clearly is).
 
XCOM and DD definitely give the proper feeling of tension and expectation of failure in them. I do think it's a bit of a let down that, when you're brought down by a UFO on Ironman and fight actually get wiped that the game let's you restart the mission, though.

Another game that does expectation of failure right, imo, but in a different way, would be Sunless Sea. When you're making decisions in the story parts of the game, you're given multiple options with varying results that rely on luck and your stats to go properly, there's no skill involved. You have to live with various failures, but when you come out on top on a hard dice roll the relief you feel is amazing.



On the other hand you have a lot of 4x games that make the AI cheat on higher difficulties rather than play smarter. Which makes the early game a lot more difficult than the late game since the AI is actually just an idiot given super powers that they don't know how to use properly.

Superpowered idiot can be better than smart guy playing to win, though. Facing lopsided odds and winning is usually more satisfying than facing even odds, even if both situations are actually 50\50.

I dont think this is universally nor provably true.

I think we're going to need an argument for that. In a world where there's no extrinsic reward, easy challenges don't make the player feel anything.
There can be satisfaction in steamrolling, but only when it's a challenge previously considered hard that is suddenly easy.
 
Its interesting to think where Fire Emblem fits in this model.

A lot of players will say "it's trail and error, you didn't know reinforcements were going to show up on that spot on that turn until it happens to you once." while other experienced players will tell those players: "You just don't know the game well enough, there are always tells on a map."


I'm playing through Conquest on Hard/Classic and I definitely feel like - this game isn't meant for you to beat certain maps on your first try. There are definitely quirks about each thing where you need to "learn" by being punished at least once. It's funny that I have that expectation, since that's MOSTLY how it goes in JRPGs. You rarely die, outside of boss battles, and even then you rarely die. But I don't have that expectation when playing a platformer like Shovel Knight and Mario. I know that I'm going to die because that's how you learn the stage. There's also just the execution involved in knowing what you need to do, I guess that really isn't an issue in a turn based strategy game.

I'm early on in FE Awakening on hard and I feel this way about the mission design too. You kind of just have to try things out and see if they work. Latest example was somewhere around chapter 7-8. Once the last enemy out on the field dies, the boss mobilizes himself which had him walk up and kill one of my units who was too close to him when this happened. This is after many missions of the boss waiting for me to engage, and also this particular boss not moving UNTIL the last roaming soldier was killed. Obviously it wasn't something I was expecting, but trying again I was able to position a little further back and actually set up a defensive line.

I don't really view this as a positive or a negative it's just how I play those games. FE basically does turn into that "puzzle" for me which is fun in it's own right. I could just as easily let my units eat shit to unexpected events like that, but I prefer to keep them alive by trying again, changing my strat, and maybe swapping out units in subsequent attempts.
 
My biggest issue with XCOM remains the hit chance stuff. I pretty much just wish it was gone, and given that these are supposed to be trained soldiers, if they're firing at you, you're in big trouble. This is already the case with the game, but the fact that there's this huge random element over the top of all of it makes it unsatisfying to actually win at combat, because you know there's a layer of math that could just as easily screw you over the next time you do the exact same thing.

That layer makes it even more difficult to "learn" the game, because there's a certain aspect that can never be learned and that you have relatively little influence over. Were it removed, were generally everything a guaranteed hit, I'd say XCOM could be interesting. As it stands, it's greatly compromised by it. The other option is to cheat and just not tell the player what the chance to hit is, though that's similarly unsatisfying. The worst is when you are firing point blank range and miss (where the game feels the most compromised).
 
A major issue in the gradual unlocking of tools is that 'old' tools will get outdated, and if the game is paced briskly, said tool can end up never getting used - wasted design space.

I love that you said this. This is also a major reason why game balance is important, and the fact that "a game can never be perfectly balanced" is a bullshit excuse for not even trying in the first place (seriously folks, please don't say this).

If something is too weak or too overpowering such that other items are constantly used over it or vice-versa, that's a complete waste of development hours spent on those items. In other words, it's terribly inefficient. Why even bother including it if it's just a noob trap?

That being said, there's a difference between something being perceptually overpowered and being factually overpowered. A good designer should be able to provide the former (because using said OP things feels great) while actually ensuring the latter. This is a big part of what makes Starcraft so good. (Granted, this can go too far and create blatant rock-paper-scissors gameplay, but it's still better to have this variety than to have a list of extremely similar but "balanced" options).

Sorry for the tangent. This one's just kind of a pet peeve of mine so I felt the need to address it. Really enjoyed reading the post.


It's interesting to me, though, how strong the perception of loss can be even if the failure state is one that you're unlikely to hit. In XCOM 2 I just restart a game/mission if I get a total squad wipe, because I feel like I lost, even though the game can still be continued from that point. In that respect, I guess it works, but I admit I lose all motivation to continue Ironman games when I feel like I've lost too much. That's not what it's supposed to be doing, right? Heh.

Oh, well. Personal enjoyment is very personal, indeed.
 
My biggest issue with XCOM remains the hit chance stuff. I pretty much just wish it was gone, and given that these are supposed to be trained soldiers, if they're firing at you, you're in big trouble. This is already the case with the game, but the fact that there's this huge random element over the top of all of it makes it unsatisfying to actually win at combat, because you know there's a layer of math that could just as easily screw you over the next time you do the exact same thing.

That layer makes it even more difficult to "learn" the game, because there's a certain aspect that can never be learned and that you have relatively little influence over. Were it removed, were generally everything a guaranteed hit, I'd say XCOM could be interesting. As it stands, it's greatly compromised by it. The other option is to cheat and just not tell the player what the chance to hit is, though that's similarly unsatisfying. The worst is when you are firing point blank range and miss (where the game feels the most compromised).

The challenge is to overcome randomness by smart tactics and planning. Yes, a 65% shot could kill or get you killed, but if you plan ahead then that miss will have only a very small chance of hitting you, or sometimes even going off (because you killed it with your backup plan).

Plus grenades really help you out in the early game. On veteran, afaik, grenades are guaranteed kills anyway. On commander, it's only like a 20% chance a grenade kills alone. Even a hit in commander will not guarantee a kill even on the starting enemies. Yet smart play prevails even in legendary.

In short, yes there is randomness. But that is the challenge, not it's weakness. And then later in the game (even early in the game tbh), RNG has even less impact. For example, as I mentioned earlier the basic rifle is not a guaranteed kill on the basic advent soldier, but with a ranger, sharpshooter, or grenadier it is (their guns do 4-6 damage instead of 3-5).

Missing point blank shots suck, but that is the risk you took with a low level soldier. Getting that close to the enemy should be risky. And it isn't like you or the enemy is actually just standing still, if this were to be compared to "real life". The soldier is running up to and firing their gun with all their adrenaline pumping against an alien with guns shots going off left and right etc..
 
The challenge is to overcome randomness by smart tactics and planning. Yes, a 65% shot could kill or get you killed, but if you plan ahead then that miss will have only a very small chance of hitting you, or sometimes even going off (because you killed it with your backup plan).

Plus grenades really help you out in the early game. On veteran, afaik, grenades are guaranteed kills anyway. On commander, it's only like a 20% chance a grenade kills alone. Even a hit in commander will not guarantee a kill even on the starting enemies. Yet smart play prevails even in legendary.

In short, yes there is randomness. But that is the challenge, not it's weakness. And then later in the game (even early in the game tbh), RNG has even less impact. For example, as I mentioned earlier the basic rifle is not a guaranteed kill on the basic advent soldier, but with a ranger, sharpshooter, or grenadier it is (their guns do 4-6 damage instead of 3-5).

Missing point blank shots suck, but that is the risk you took with a low level soldier. Getting that close to the enemy should be risky. And it isn't like you or the enemy is actually just standing still, if this were to be compared to "real life". The soldier is running up to and firing their gun with all their adrenaline pumping against an alien with guns shots going off left and right etc..
If this were compared to real life you'd be using terror tactics and generally never even attempt to engage with alien lifeforms that can mind control you.

But the randomness is a design choice and the fact that the conversation always goes this way, "yeah it's random, but it's not that bad" just shows how generally poor a design decision it is when it affects major components of the gameplay. Randomness of drops, randomness of how many enemies, these are the sorts of variations that add challenge to a game about predictability. Having every attack you make being determined by a slot machine is uninteresting, unless you are extraordinarily fond of gambling. Not really into gameplay where I'm trying to win the lottery every turn.
 
If this were compared to real life you'd be using terror tactics and generally never even attempt to engage with alien lifeforms that can mind control you.

But the randomness is a design choice and the fact that the conversation always goes this way, "yeah it's random, but it's not that bad" just shows how generally poor a design decision it is when it affects major components of the gameplay. Randomness of drops, randomness of how many enemies, these are the sorts of variations that add challenge to a game about predictability. Having every attack you make being determined by a slot machine is uninteresting, unless you are extraordinarily fond of gambling. Not really into gameplay where I'm trying to win the lottery every turn.

I think if you're playing the game that way, like you're relying on luck like in the lottery, you're not playing really well. And not every attack is determined by randomness, as I mentioned grenades are only random in damage output (3-4 damage, you assume 3 damage). I don't mean to just say "git gud", but I think the way you're talking about the game is due to inexperience and not quite accurate of higher levels of play.
 
I think if you're playing the game that way, like you're relying on luck like in the lottery, you're not playing really well. And not every attack is determined by randomness, as I mentioned grenades are only random in damage output (3-4 damage, you assume 3 damage). I don't mean to just say "git gud", but I think the way you're talking about the game is due to inexperience and not quite accurate of higher levels of play.
But this is part of my problem. If we knew that grenades always hit, why in the wide world would you not just send your soldiers in with five grenades and no gun? They clearly would be far more deadly than with a gun, given that they are definitely guaranteed to do major damage. Why wouldn't the enemy just use nothing but grenades too? Are both sides of the war just extraordinarily incompetent? Thinking about this for even a second just reveals how silly the design decision is. Grenades are also far easier and cheaper to make/purchase than guns. Heck, grenades even have the advantage of not giving away your position if you can't see where they're thrown from!
 
You are asking for a game that is not this game. Probably not even a heavily modified version of it. You are asking, like, for a turn based rts, I guess. Where two armies meet and.... Compare numbers?

I don't know, the % is such a core gameplay element of the genre. You remove that, in my opinion, you remove the entire experience. It's like people who say turn based is just outdated real time.
 
You are asking for a game that is not this game. Probably not even a heavily modified version of it. You are asking, like, for a turn based rts, I guess. Where two armies meet and.... Compare numbers?

I don't know, the % is such a core gameplay element of the genre. You remove that, in my opinion, you remove the entire experience. It's like people who say turn based is just outdated real time.
You might be right. In spite of that, it speaks poorly of the genre that it hasn't moved beyond randomness as a large element of its "challenge." One that many will save scumm around if they aren't playing Ironman. And it's really difficult for me to not just excuse players who use save scumming because of the randomness involved.
 
You might be right. In spite of that, it speaks poorly of the genre that it hasn't moved beyond randomness as a large element of its "challenge." One that many will save scumm around if they aren't playing Ironman. And it's really difficult for me to not just excuse players who use save scumming because of the randomness involved.

Randomness != bad game design

Randomness doesn't force you to make random plays or use random strategies. It forces you to plan around the randomness, use strategies that are likely to work out in your favor, and if things don't go your way, mitigate the damage done to you. It's an integral part of the game design. Just like in real life, things don't always go your way, no matter how well you prepare. Deal with it and make the best of the situation. That's what XCOM wants you to do.

You talk about game design, but from your grenade post, you seem to misunderstand a great number of things. Grenades are powerful, but they have drawbacks, and one of those drawbacks is having limited uses. To flippantly say that everyone should bring bags of grenades because it makes sense is a flawed argument in the context of game design.

And the genre has purely deterministic non-RNG games, as well. Check out Invisible, Inc and Frozen Synapse.
 
Fantastic write up, I haven't heard someone break down A.I like this before, and I really enjoyed it. I've been getting a bit of that with the Nohr campaign in FE Fates. Oh Hard, the A.I. is much more ruthless, and will try to punish you at every opportunity it gets, and yet sometimes it will bring characters to the brink of death, and then decide not to finish them in the same turn. Not always mind you, but just enough so not every mistake is fatal, just most of them.
 
Randomness != bad game design

Randomness doesn't force you to make random plays or use random strategies. It forces you to plan around the randomness, use strategies that are likely to work out in your favor, and if things don't go your way, mitigate the damage done to you. It's an integral part of the game design. Just like in real life, things don't always go your way, no matter how well you prepare. Deal with it and make the best of the situation. That's what XCOM wants you to do.

You talk about game design, but from your grenade post, you seem to misunderstand a great number of things. Grenades are powerful, but they have drawbacks, and one of those drawbacks is having limited uses. To flippantly say that everyone should bring bags of grenades because it makes sense is a flawed argument in the context of game design.

And the genre has purely deterministic non-RNG games, as well. Check out Invisible, Inc and Frozen Synapse.
Having limited uses is not a drawback, it's a function of the game design. Grenades have no drawbacks and that is why they are powerful. But assuming that the game world is understood reasonably by those who inhabit it, these are some extremely dumb soldiers. I would never depend on these people to save the world, they are making horrible decisions before even moving out the gate.

From a design perspective it's also a poor decision because it's incompatible with the rest of the game functionally. The rest of the game world seems to be determined by a lot of randomness. It's extremely odd, then, that there is this one thing in combat that is extraordinarily deterministic by design. What your characters become, when they panic, how often they hit, whether or not you successfully hack, all highly non-deterministic systems. But grenades? Nope, those will always work. I am aware that they are intended to "balance" the game in the player's favor, but they just seem very out of place in the game world from any perspective you throw at them.

I don't think I'm being flippant about this either. It's genuinely difficult to explain how it's not odd. And this happens in lots of other games too, not just XCOM. Though in a lot of other games that do this, players tend to catch on and abuse the one thing that always works. XCOM just prevents it by arbitrarily limiting how often you can take advantage it.

I still also think randomness is generally poor game design unless controlled for strictly. Hit chance should not vary by 40 - 60% in a game already filled to the brim with random effects. Weapon ranges would be a more reasonable design decision as well, since even if you varied the hit chance from beyond a weapon's normal range, at least you know why your hit chance is dropping and can control for it by determining optimal ranges and angles to be firing from.
 
Also, thank you all for compliments & effort - I kind of expected this thread to go down as 10 view \ 0 reply!

I don't really view this as a positive or a negative it's just how I play those games. FE basically does turn into that "puzzle" for me which is fun in it's own right. I could just as easily let my units eat shit to unexpected events like that, but I prefer to keep them alive by trying again, changing my strat, and maybe swapping out units in subsequent attempts.
Viewing games like XCOM as puzzles can lead to frustration, but it'll work in gimmicky affairs like DD bosses and certain FFT\FE encounters.
The design path taken is radically different, though: A puzzle game is information-complete, while XCOM will have you make decisions based on incomplete information.
Said incomplete information is your troops' hit roll, and everything in fog of war.
A really good thread we recently had on this.



I love that you said this. This is also a major reason why game balance is important, and the fact that "a game can never be perfectly balanced" is a bullshit excuse for not even trying in the first place (seriously folks, please don't say this).

If something is too weak or too overpowering such that other items are constantly used over it or vice-versa, that's a complete waste of development hours spent on those items. In other words, it's terribly inefficient. Why even bother including it if it's just a noob trap?

That being said, there's a difference between something being perceptually overpowered and being factually overpowered. A good designer should be able to provide the former (because using said OP things feels great) while actually ensuring the latter. This is a big part of what makes Starcraft so good. (Granted, this can go too far and create blatant rock-paper-scissors gameplay, but it's still better to have this variety than to have a list of extremely similar but "balanced" options).

Sorry for the tangent. This one's just kind of a pet peeve of mine so I felt the need to address it. Really enjoyed reading the post.


It's interesting to me, though, how strong the perception of loss can be even if the failure state is one that you're unlikely to hit. In XCOM 2 I just restart a game/mission if I get a total squad wipe, because I feel like I lost, even though the game can still be continued from that point. In that respect, I guess it works, but I admit I lose all motivation to continue Ironman games when I feel like I've lost too much. That's not what it's supposed to be doing, right? Heh.

Oh, well. Personal enjoyment is very personal, indeed.

An issue with XCOM is that since it lies to you (a bit) regarding how well you're doing, you may not push through runs which you can actually win, and instead reroll and do the earlier steps better.
An approach which i'd like tried sometimes along the way is "checkpointed" ironman; with every 'step' being 1-2h of gameplay: And with strict fail\loss conditions.
Dark Souls has a RPG layer that does this really well: RPG elements are harsh, but replenishable resources avoid the player going "Eh, i should stack up better" on every step.
If a 'step' is 5 missions, and for the highest possible ongoing grade you can use X resources and lose 1 mission - without any long-term advantage to losing 0 over losing 1 you can provide a campaign that truly allows loss to be part of it without 80% of your playerbase going "Fuck it, i'll just start back", and do so until things go perfectly - resulting in a steamroll run, because you actually designing the game to allow loss in the first place.



If this were compared to real life you'd be using terror tactics and generally never even attempt to engage with alien lifeforms that can mind control you.

But the randomness is a design choice and the fact that the conversation always goes this way, "yeah it's random, but it's not that bad" just shows how generally poor a design decision it is when it affects major components of the gameplay. Randomness of drops, randomness of how many enemies, these are the sorts of variations that add challenge to a game about predictability. Having every attack you make being determined by a slot machine is uninteresting, unless you are extraordinarily fond of gambling. Not really into gameplay where I'm trying to win the lottery every turn.

You're mistaking partially random for completely random: In addition to that, a good XCOM commander won't be rolling much dice at all.
First, understand that, due to how statistics inherently work, throwing more dice is actually less random: If you throw 10 50% shots doing 1 damage, the distribution heavily favors 4-6. Very heavily. 0 is practically impossible (1/1024).
Instead, a single roll (Random damage 1-10) has very harsh extremes.
XCOM makes you roll a lot of dice, but when you're rolling three dices and hoping for two on three, 85% to hit, the chance to fail is very low. And you should have a plan in motion to minimize the downside of that.
Plus, there's explosives and shotguns (Which do crit, but, eh.) XCOM's random isn't a liability at all; it's just a way to prevent the game from becoming a perfect-information game where you can reliably get out of the same situation in the same way. If we didn't have hit chances, we'd be studying up encounter v encounter tables and doing a lot of homework instead of on-the-fly planning: And homework is rarely fun.

Another note to make regarding random is that it opens up the field of possibilities greatly.
A plan can have a outcome of 5% loss one soldier, 95% loss 0 soldiers. A no-random game can't have that - Either you're losing a soldier, or you're not. This means you need to restrict major loss to enormous fuck-ups, which means noobtrapping and gimmicking all your hardest battles - which is kind of what DD does with it's bosses. And honestly, DD bosses are pretty bad - Trial&Error gameplay.

Making the best of a bad situation is much better than having to plan something to go near-perfectly - if nothing else, because there's infinite bad states and only a handful of perfect states.
From a design perspective it's also a poor decision because it's incompatible with the rest of the game functionally. The rest of the game world seems to be determined by a lot of randomness. It's extremely odd, then, that there is this one thing in combat that is extraordinarily deterministic by design. What your characters become, when they panic, how often they hit, whether or not you successfully hack, all highly non-deterministic systems. But grenades? Nope, those will always work. I am aware that they are intended to "balance" the game in the player's favor, but they just seem very out of place in the game world from any perspective you throw at them.

Consider that basically every class has guaranteed damage:
Support has the Gremlin attacks
Sniper can just get to 100% hit chance pretty easily
Shotguns are 100% when used properly
Grenades are obviously autohit.
But non-random hits really aren't a prerogative of grenades - Grenades' forte is actually destroying cover more than guaranteed damage, past the initial stages.

Gradenas also depend on a substantially random issue: Enemy placement. Whatever two enemies will be near enough to get grenaded together is out of your control, much like the chance to hit is.
Grenades are also massively number-limited, and are intended as a limited resource. You can't just grenade all enemies to death: You'll be using them to blow up cover, and then bring out the actual damage dealing - shooting.


Fantastic write up, I haven't heard someone break down A.I like this before, and I really enjoyed it. I've been getting a bit of that with the Nohr campaign in FE Fates. Oh Hard, the A.I. is much more ruthless, and will try to punish you at every opportunity it gets, and yet sometimes it will bring characters to the brink of death, and then decide not to finish them in the same turn. Not always mind you, but just enough so not every mistake is fatal, just most of them.

I haven't played FE:Fates, but AI not being completely ruthless can be nice. AI doesn't care to make you lose, even if it's playing to win - Berserk\Suicidal AI, which plans purely on how much damage it can inflict to you, can be extremely annoying and doesn't present as many counterplay options as AI which actually cares about self-preservation.
 
Having limited uses is not a drawback, it's a function of the game design. Grenades have no drawbacks and that is why they are powerful.

The drawback to grenades it that they destroy resources.

I still also think randomness is generally poor game design unless controlled for strictly.

But the randomness of shot accuracy is controlled for by the dozens of other factors going on, seeing how the level of randomness in XCom can consistantly be overcome by skill and smart play.
 
You know, the perfectionist in me really, really balks at the hidden bonuses that XCOM gives. I'm totally fine with easier difficulties being actually easier. I'm not fine with the misdirection. If a 91% shot on Veteran is always going to hit because of the hidden bonus, it shouldn't say 91%, it should say 100%.

If there's a stacking bonus for anti-streak on misses, that's fine. MAKE IT PART OF THE UI. Don't obfuscate it.

Statistics is already a confusing enough subject for the layman that subtle reinforcement via hidden mechanics is both an insult to intelligence, and an absurd/unfair feel-good factor in favor of XCOM versus anything else that utilizes RNG as part of its gameplay. What if it catches on? What if every dev decides that they want their players to feel better than similar products and it becomes an arms race that spirals off into absurdity?

(We're obviously nottalking about pseudo-RNG like quest drops in WoW or procs in DotA, etc that break streaks but at least gravitate toward a stated percentage. We're talking about flat-out higher-than-stated chances)

edit: On the subject of Grenades/Grenadiers, this probably belongs more in the XCOM OT but since we're discussing RNG here, I'd straight out posit that they're currently flat out broken. Current Legendary/Honestman run is running three grenadiers with 3 nades each (soon to be an additional explosive with W.A.R. suits), and this is what it looks like, all guaranteed damage:



When you have a good idea of how many pods there are going to be on each mission (comes with experience, or, build the Shadow Chamber and it tells you) and you have 9 nades, and they all do guaranteed damage with a huge-ass radius, there virtually isn't any randomness anymore. Lob two nades at every pod which also destroys their cover, mop up, rinse, repeat.

Even Mimic Beacons aren't as broken. Psi Ops are a whole different category of broken, but at least on timed missions their nuke abilities are limited in the amount of times they can be utilized,
 
You're mistaking partially random for completely random: In addition to that, a good XCOM commander won't be rolling much dice at all.
First, understand that, due to how statistics inherently work, throwing more dice is actually less random: If you throw 10 50% shots doing 1 damage, the distribution heavily favors 4-6. Very heavily. 0 is practically impossible (1/1024).
Instead, a single roll (Random damage 1-10) has very harsh extremes.
XCOM makes you roll a lot of dice, but when you're rolling three dices and hoping for two on three, 85% to hit, the chance to fail is very low. And you should have a plan in motion to minimize the downside of that.
Plus, there's explosives and shotguns (Which do crit, but, eh.) XCOM's random isn't a liability at all; it's just a way to prevent the game from becoming a perfect-information game where you can reliably get out of the same situation in the same way. If we didn't have hit chances, we'd be studying up encounter v encounter tables and doing a lot of homework instead of on-the-fly planning: And homework is rarely fun.

Another note to make regarding random is that it opens up the field of possibilities greatly.
A plan can have a outcome of 5% loss one soldier, 95% loss 0 soldiers. A no-random game can't have that - Either you're losing a soldier, or you're not. This means you need to restrict major loss to enormous fuck-ups, which means noobtrapping and gimmicking all your hardest battles - which is kind of what DD does with it's bosses. And honestly, DD bosses are pretty bad - Trial&Error gameplay.

Making the best of a bad situation is much better than having to plan something to go near-perfectly - if nothing else, because there's infinite bad states and only a handful of perfect states.
I agree with this, but very rarely have I been able to get 95% success rates. It's more like 80/20 and that leaves a huge margin of error just sitting there. It's a game you will lose pretty inevitably. Small margins make sense, but very large margins do not. Thus the argument about strictly controlled randomness. Were that margin coming at a cost of needing two hits to kill or something else that actively allows for real control over those expectations, I'd be more inclined to accept the degrees of possibility. It's why even very early on, in games like Dark Souls you typically need to be hit at least twice, if not three times before you're done. Yes, you're going to get hit, but you can control for getting hit at least some of the time, even if it's not all the time. One and done will inherently feel unfair. I enjoy games like Magic the Gathering because you have a period for adjustment that you just don't experience in games where the tilt of the game is so extreme in one side's favor based on a shuffle of the deck, even if that deck is stacked to some extent.

It was not my intent to say that all randomness was bad, and I apologize for that slip up. Just that it being difficult to control for makes the game feel like mistakes often aren't your own.
 
You know, the perfectionist in me really, really balks at the hidden bonuses that XCOM gives. I'm totally fine with easier difficulties being actually easier. I'm not fine with the misdirection. If a 91% shot on Veteran is always going to hit because of the hidden bonus, it shouldn't say 91%, it should say 100%.

If there's a stacking bonus for anti-streak on misses, that's fine. MAKE IT PART OF THE UI. Don't obfuscate it.

Statistics is already a confusing enough subject for the layman that subtle reinforcement via hidden mechanics is both an insult to intelligence, and an absurd/unfair feel-good factor in favor of XCOM versus anything else that utilizes RNG as part of its gameplay. What if it catches on? What if every dev decides that they want their players to feel better than similar products and it becomes an arms race that spirals off into absurdity?

(We're obviously nottalking about pseudo-RNG like quest drops in WoW or procs in DotA, etc that break streaks but at least gravitate toward a stated percentage. We're talking about flat-out higher-than-stated chances)

edit: On the subject of Grenades/Grenadiers, this probably belongs more in the XCOM OT but since we're discussing RNG here, I'd straight out posit that they're currently flat out broken. Current Legendary/Honestman run is running three grenadiers with 3 nades each (soon to be an additional explosive with W.A.R. suits), and this is what it looks like, all guaranteed damage:





When you have a good idea of how many pods there are going to be on each mission (comes with experience, or, build the Shadow Chamber and it tells you) and you have 9 nades, and they all do guaranteed damage with a huge-ass radius, there virtually isn't any randomness anymore. Lob two nades at every pod which also destroys their cover, mop up, rinse, repeat.

Even Mimic Beacons aren't as broken. Psi Ops are a whole different category of broken, but at least on timed missions their nuke abilities are limited in the amount of times they can be utilized,

Honestly it isn't that they're that broken, they just get more broken as more enemies are brought in - Which is most of Legendary's difficulty.
You can absolutely get through commander with minimal grenade usage. The issue is that there's pretty much no other way to deal with 4+ enemies except massively-bonused experimental grenades, since practically all other skills that allow for multi-enemy damage are at Colonel.

I agree with this, but very rarely have I been able to get 95% success rates. It's more like 80/20 and that leaves a huge margin of error just sitting there. It's a game you will lose pretty inevitably. Small margins make sense, but very large margins do not. Thus the argument about strictly controlled randomness. Were that margin coming at a cost of needing two hits to kill or something else that actively allows for real control over those expectations, I'd be more inclined to accept the degrees of possibility. It's why even very early on, in games like Dark Souls you typically need to be hit at least twice, if not three times before you're done. Yes, you're going to get hit, but you can control for getting hit at least some of the time, even if it's not all the time. One and done will inherently feel unfair. I enjoy games like Magic the Gathering because you have a period for adjustment that you just don't experience in games where the tilt of the game is so extreme in one side's favor based on a shuffle of the deck, even if that deck is stacked to some extent.

It was not my intent to say that all randomness was bad, and I apologize for that slip up. Just that it being difficult to control for makes the game feel like mistakes often aren't your own.

I think most of your issue isn't with outgoing randomness, but rather with enemy crits. I kind of agree that enemy crits in xcom are way too binary, and single-roll meaning 10-20% to get critted, come hell or high cover, is extremely annoying - especially when one crit is enough to get a soldier down.
It kind of gets auto-fixed when you get Predator armor.
 
I think most of your issue isn't with outgoing randomness, but rather with enemy crits. I kind of agree that enemy crits in xcom are way too binary, and single-roll meaning 10-20% to get critted, come hell or high cover, is extremely annoying - especially when one crit is enough to get a soldier down.
It kind of gets auto-fixed when you get Predator armor.
If you need something that's further down the line to "fix" weird stuff like that, I'm not sure how I feel about that as a design decision. Seems like weapons should still be doing 2-3 rather than 3-4 or 4-6 damage per attack given the current combat.
 
The issue is that there's pretty much no other way to deal with 4+ enemies except massively-bonused experimental grenades, since practically all other skills that allow for multi-enemy damage are at Colonel.

Which is why it's broken!
 
Has anyone here played Steamworld: Heist? I haven't tried it myself, but it's an X-Com like game that seems like it might have an interesting solution to the "problem" of random chance to hit. It's played from a sidescrolling perspective and weapons are manually aimed by the player, with the difficulty/uncertainty seemingly reliant on an expectation that the player will pull off "trick shots" by ricocheting their bullets into enemies that are outside of a character's line of sight.

I'd be interested to know how much randomness plays a role in that. Is there random variance in the trajectory of the bullets? Damage variance? A chance to "miss"/"dodge" shots that are on target?

On another forum I once mused that I couldn't even imagine how a game like X-Com could possibly work without random to-hit rolls, but it has since occurred to me that it might look something like Steamworld: Heist.
 
If you need something that's further down the line to "fix" weird stuff like that, I'm not sure how I feel about that as a design decision. Seems like weapons should still be doing 2-3 rather than 3-4 or 4-6 damage per attack given the current combat.

Hits generally don't kill squaddies.
Crits do. The issue is that crits against high cover are still 20% on the roll - it just becomes 80 miss, 20 crit instead of 40 miss, 40 hit, 20 crit.
 
Hits generally don't kill squaddies.
Crits do. The issue is that crits against high cover are still 20% on the roll - it just becomes 80 miss, 20 crit instead of 40 miss, 40 hit, 20 crit.
No, they don't, but it's not uncommon for even a few hits to start causing bigger issues among the squad. It's rare that a turn happens where if you take one hit, there are probably two hits incoming. I'm aware the RNG supposedly runs in your favor if you get hit multiple times, but it's not often enough and it's hidden from view, making it a sort of non-issue because you can't make decisions based on information you don't have. Maybe you can get it if you start doing homework but the argument has already been presented on how that's "not fun." I actually do lots of optimizing on most of my characters in games I play and find that part of the game, in many cases, more interesting than playing the actual game. But yeah, I know I'm not a majority on that; most people don't like min-maxing (and I agree that it's not something they should have to optimize in the first place).
 
I haven't played FE:Fates, but AI not being completely ruthless can be nice. AI doesn't care to make you lose, even if it's playing to win - Berserk\Suicidal AI, which plans purely on how much damage it can inflict to you, can be extremely annoying and doesn't present as many counterplay options as AI which actually cares about self-preservation.

Oh I agree! When the units completely out number you, a completely ruthless A.I. would make it impossible. That is actually what I had heard about Darkest Dungeon though, that it was completely unforgiving and would lead into scenarios like FTL, when winning could come down to luck. That was when it was first released though so maybe that's changed. Point is, your write up has made me want to but it now, since I know I won't be doing runs where one bad RNG can turn into wasted time, like FTL would do on occasion.
 
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