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August 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes September 8th

donny2112

Member
ITT, predict for the NPD August 2015 retail period (August 2-29, 2015) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, September 8th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: August 2-29, 2015 (4 weeks, July was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, September 10th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000


Potential hardware impacting events in August:
Summary
XB1 MCC bundle + 40" 1080p TV at Best Buy - $500 (August 9-15) - 7 days (reports of selling 12K the first day of this sale)
XB1 Madden 16 bundle - $399 (August 18, 1 week before game release) - 12 days
2DS price drop to $100 announced on Aug. 20 starting Aug 30 - 10 days
Buy PS4 and get Madden 16 included at no additional charge (August 25-30) - 5 days
Madden 16 PS4/XB1 (August 25) - 5 days


Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

July's Results (estimates)
1. PS4 - 218K
2. XB1 - 189K
3. 3DS - 105K
4. WIU - 46K

July 2014 NPD thread
August 2014 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 

DayEnder

Member
I'm not a regular in these topics, but I'm thinking I'll give it a try this month.

Guesses (might revise):

[3DS] 110K
[PS4] 240K
[WIU] 40K
[XB1] 225K
 

Abdiel

Member
At work at the moment. I'll update this with more when I'm free.

Also, I have an avatar now, after almost two years without. Haha.
 

Jigorath

Banned
[3DS] 102k
[PS4] 215k
[WIU] 37k
[XB1] 225k

Xbone will pull out a win thanks to the Madden effect
PS4's surprise Madden bundle will keep it kinda close though
How low can WiiU go
 

Chobel

Member
[3DS] 99K
[PS4] 215K
[WIU] 44K
[XB1] 222K

This is going a tough month to predict: XBO bundles (Madden 16 + Gears) vs PS4 deals (Free madden 16 in the last week of August NPD + free game of your choice from Walmart)
 

donny2112

Member
Also, I have an avatar now, after almost two years without. Haha.

Lightweight.
:p

I thought that since only market share matters that we'd have given up on predicting units sold by now.

XS5LK.gif
 

Welfare

Member
Reserving for what exactly? You can post your prediction later and it will count just like all the others do. Why do you have to reserve a spot on the first page?

I like getting my predictions in on the first page so it's easier to go back to for editing.
 

DayEnder

Member
I like getting my predictions in on the first page so it's easier to go back to for editing.

I use the | Welcome <Username> | in the top right and then click | Your Posts | to find it later for editing. I post infrequently though so it is pretty easy to find old ones.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
XBO SALES

176,000 with 10% YOY increase
192,000 with 20% YOY increase
208,000 with 30% YOY increase
224,000 with 40% YOY increase
240,000 with 50% YOY increase
256,000 with 60% YOY increase
272,000 with 70% YOY increase
288,000 with 80% YOY increase
304,000 with 90% YOY increase
320,000 with 100% YOY increase


3DS SALES

77,000 with 30% total YOY increase
87,000 with 31% total YOY increase
96,000 with 32% total YOY increase
106,000 with 33% total YOY increase
115,000 with 34% total YOY increase
125,000 with 35% total YOY increase
 

On Demand

Banned
I thought that since only market share matters that we'd have given up on predicting units sold by now.

It was never boiled down to that. I get the feeling that discussion really bothered you. Why bring it here?


Anyway, i think XB1 has August. The free madden with PS4 this week could have gave it a slight win though. Another thing to note is GS has been bundling 3 month XBLG cards this entire month (it's not really free though). From watching their charts XB1 has been above PS4 for the duration thanks to that deal. It's only now PS4 has gotten back above a few of those SKU's this week because of the madden deal.

http://www.gamestop.com/browse/consoles?nav=28-xu0,13ffff2412-4f

So i think that definitely helped XB1 for this month. Obviously it's only one retailer, others could have sold more or less of either console, but they are the largest for NPD data.

Oh, forgot about that free controller bundle too.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
PS4 or XBO... probably I will decide on the last day what put on top.

My mind Want say XBO, indeed back in July i thought this month was most likely a Microsoft victory, but Amazon has most likely PS4 > XBO... And after what's happen in April, i will never doubt what Amazon say. NEVER.
 
D

Deleted member 471617

Unconfirmed Member
[3DS] 92K
[PS4] 220K
[WIU] 38K
[XB1] 200K
 

Abdiel

Member
All right lads and ladies. Abdiel's Best Buy NPD Update.

To start, this was a really weird month for us. I'm sure any other employees can speak to that.

Basically... It seems like there isn't a single consistent trend for our stores, and I'll condense my thoughts on this for a few points.

First, the elephant in the room is the XB1/TV deal. Leading into the month, prior to that deal the PS4 was winning fairly easily in advance. Then this deal. XB1 sales EXPLODED for that week. Tremendous increase, stores running out of inventory. Wasn't *quite* as popular when they switched from the Samsung to the other models, but I mean, it was still a ridiculous value in terms of the discount. I think that we switched to other models was further reinforcement that that particular deal was paid for by MS, according to my manager, as if it were a Samsung thing, it would have basically been over as soon as the inventory got blocked out.

However, once that deal was over, XB1 sales in most stores I checked dropped... heavily. Like, lower than they were before the deal. Customers were asking about similar offers to the previous one, and when there wasn't anything like that, a lot of people said they'd simply wait for the next ridiculous deal rather than pay the standard price. And even while that deal was going on, PS4 sales didn't stop or anything. The districts I checked, PS4 sales seemed to stay pretty consistent, actually. We've had customers asking about price matching the deal for Walmart and GS on the free Madden thing, since as far as I've seen, we didn't officially get that deal. Lots of supervisor overrides on that. Oh well.

Secondly, the Madden bundle itself really isn't what I'd call a mover or a shaker in our stores. *especially* following up that TV deal. It sold some units, definitely, but it's not like a prominent item, or considered something really desirable. I don't feel like it made much of an impact at all in the districts I checked. Almost like it was just a swap for what people would have otherwise snagged rather than motivated new purchases.

Obviously, these are Best Buy specific impressions, based on district checks (I try to use national searches, so as not to limit my spectrum, such as The No. and So. Cal districts, the northeast, down by Florida, and central districts as well, as purchasing trends can vary hugely.) None of what I've seen here can reflect on Walmart or Gamestop, but the customers we see asking to pricematch obviously have found out about the deals they have, some just prefer to buy from us due to rewards points, best buy card etc.

TL;DR: XB1 was losing prior to the TV deal for us, the TV deal was a huge deal, but then it didn't carry any momentum forward from it. PS4 has stayed consistent, for us. Basically, I don't want to make a clear call either way, for the larger market.
 

bluedawgs

Banned
[PS4] 260K
[XB1] 215K
[3DS] 90K
[WIU] 40K






I expect higher than usual PS4 sales because of the Black Ops 3 beta. That was huge.
 
[PS4] 278K
[XB1] 310K

"XB1 MCC bundle + 40" 1080p TV at Best Buy - $500 (August 9-15) - 7 days (reports of selling 12K the first day of this sale"
 
first time i'm doing this i think?

[PS4] 160k
[XB1] 175k
[WIU] 20k
[3DS] 100k

I'm expecting that BB deal allowed XB1 to leapfrog PS4 this month.
 

Kayant

Member
Thanks for the impressions as always Abdiel.

Just going to predict now before I forget like last month :/

[PS4] 202k
[XB1] 217k
[3DS] 95k
[WIU] 48k
 
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