Strong Democrat (44)
Weak Democrat (3)
Barely Democrat (3)
Exactly tied (0)
Barely GOP (2)
Weak GOP (1)
Strong GOP (47)
No Senate Race
(thx to Diablos for second image)
For a detailed breakdown of polls/percentages by state, visit
this website.
Note: "By definition, "strong" means support of 10% or more; "weak" means 5% to 9%, and "barely" means less than 5%. The states marked barely are statistical ties. Democrats need to pick up six Republican seats to capture the Senate. For the Republicans, all they have to do is win 10 of the 33 contests to have 50 seats so Vice President Dick Cheney can cast the deciding votes." (
1)
Additionally, The Democrats need to gain a net total of 15 seats to regain the House of Representatives for the first time since 1994. They have the potential to pick up 20 or more seats including districts in the states of California, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Indiana, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas. The Republicans are hoping to make gains in a handful of districts, including one in Ohio.
_________________________________________________________________________________
OVERVIEW:
_________________________________________________________________________________
For the record and for the remainder of this discussion, if you're interested in knowing what's going on in your state please visit
THIS IMPORTANT WEBSITE. It'll give you a breakdown of everything you can vote for, including all the measures that you will vote on.
A breakdown of the most CRITICAL battleground states will follow...
_________________________________________________________________________________
KEY RACES - HOUSE
_________________________________________________________________________________
Thanks to
BBC News for this detailed breakdown.
CALIFORNIA DISTRICT 50
People here could be forgiven for complaining of voter fatigue this year.
On 11 April they voted in a special election to replace the disgraced Randy "Duke" Cunningham, who was jailed for accepting bribes in return for approving defence contracts. The top two - Democrat Francine Busby and moderate Republican Brian Bilbray - went forward to a run-off on 6 June, won easily by Mr Bilbray.
He should do the same in November, in what should always have been an easy district for the Republicans.
COLORADO DISTRICT 7
Outgoing Bob Beauprez leaves behind him a very competitive race for this seat in the Denver suburbs.
Mr Beauprez won it with a majority of 121 votes in 2002, and voters in the district are split evenly between the Democrats, Republicans and independents.
If the Democrat State Senator Ed Perlmutter can exploit the Republicans' problems nationally, and solidify his party's current advantage among independents, then this barometer district could be theirs for the taking. State education official Rick O'Donnell will be the Republican candidate trying to stop him.
FLORIDA DISTRICT 16
The resignation of Republican Mark Foley over an e-mail sex scandal has created an unlikely contest in a Florida seat normally firmly under Republican control.
Joe Negron has been picked in his place - but it was too late to replace Mr Foley's name with his on the ballot. His party faces an uphill struggle to convince supporters to cast their vote for "Mr Foley", even knowing it will count for Mr Negron.
As a result, Democrat Tim Mahoney - himself a Republican until 2005 - finds himself transformed from a long-shot to a strong contender for the seat.
ILLINOIS DISTRICT 6
The retirement of senior Republican Henry Hyde leaves a vacancy.
In any other year, the Republicans would expect to hold this seat comfortably, but President Bush's problems have thrown the race wide open.
The Democrats are fielding an Iraq veteran, Tammy Duckworth, who lost both legs in 2004 when her helicopter was hit by a rocket-propelled grenade. Her experiences are sure to focus voters' attentions on the conflict, which could harm the Republican candidate.
INDIANA DISTRICT 8
The Democrats could pick up the seat held by Republican John Hostettler since 1994.
Mr Hostettler has won close races in the past. However, the Democratic candidate - Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth - has been outspending him, and has advantages that previous challengers did not have: he is local, has a law-and-order background, and has demonstrated an ability to win elected office in the state.
INDIANA DISTRICT 9
This is another potential Democratic pick-up.
Baron Hill lost it to current incumbent Mike Sodrel in 2004. This year Mr Hill is standing again to reverse the result.
Back in 2004, Mr Hill's downfall was his opposition to the Federal Marriage Amendment (the constitutional amendment that would have barred gay marriage). This time round, gay marriage is not such a salient issue, and voters could well remember their traditional Democratic leanings.
IOWA DISTRICT 1
Despite its Democratic leanings, this district has been represented by a Republican - Jim Nussle - since 1990.
Mr Nussle is now stepping aside to run for the governorship, and his departure triggered highly competitive primaries for both party nominations.
The Republican candidate, businessman Mike Whalen, will aim to capitalise on the goodwill still felt for Mr Nussle in the district.
Democrat Bruce Braley, a lawyer, will aim to exploit the Republicans' unpopularity in a district that favoured John Kerry over George W Bush in 2004 by 53% to 46%. The Democrats need to win this kind of seat if they are to regain the House in November.
NEW YORK DISTRICT 24
Republican incumbent Sherwood Boehlert's late decision to retire has created an intriguing race.
On paper, the Republicans - with a moderate candidate in State Sen Raymond Meier, and a majority of registered voters - should keep the seat.
But the Democrats are fielding Oneida County District Attorney Michael Arcuri, who has a proven track record for winning elections in the district, despite its Republican leanings. If Mr Arcuri can build on this, then he might have a chance.
OHIO DISTRICT 6
The seat left open by Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ted Strickland will be a very competitive race, and as yet neither party seems to have an edge.
The district is considered politically conservative and the Democrats are fielding a centrist candidate, State Sen Charlie Wilson. His campaign got off to a bad start when he neglected to gather the 50 required signatures to get his name on the primary ballot, but he managed to orchestrate a successful write-in campaign, and won the primary comfortably.
The Republican candidate - State House Speaker Chuck Blasdel - has a sizable war chest and will be a tougher proposition for Mr Wilson than his primary opponents.
The Democrats need to hold on to seats like this if they want to take control of the House.
OHIO DISTRICT 18
Everybody will be watching to assess the impact of the Jack Abramoff scandal.
Republican incumbent Bob Ney has withdrawn his candidacy after pleading guilty to corruption charges in September, the first to be charged in connection with Abramoff. Following a special primary, he has been replaced on the ballot by Joy Padgett.
Although the district is the safest for the Republicans in Ohio, the Democratic candidate - Zack Space, a law director in Dover - could well be able to capitalise on Mr Ney's troubles and take the seat.
PENNSYLVANIA DISTRICT 6
Republican Jim Gerlach retained his seat in 2004 by the smallest margin (two percentage points) of any incumbent in the House in 2004, and that margin is unlikely to have increased by November.
He is again being challenged by his 2004 opponent, lawyer Lois Murphy, who has amassed an impressive pot of campaign cash. Ms Murphy will be hoping that the presence of Republican Senator Rick Santorum on the Pennsylvania ballot will tempt Democrats - for whom he is a hate figure - to the polling station in greater numbers.
Mr Gerlach will be praying that his more moderate views - and the incumbency effect - will save him on election day.
TEXAS DISTRICT 22
Before he retired from the race in March, Tom DeLay's re-election prospects were looking very bleak indeed.
The once-mighty House Majority Leader has been charged with money-laundering. The charges have seriously tarnished his image.
But in one of the strangest preludes to a general election this year, courts have ruled that Mr DeLay cannot withdraw his name from the ballot, forcing the Republicans to urge voters to write in the name of Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs on the ballot.
With the chaos surrounding the Republican candidacy, and Mr DeLay's troubles still fresh in people's memories, Democrat Nick Lampson will fancy his chances of winning the seat.
_________________________________________________________________________________
KEY RACES - SENATE
_________________________________________________________________________________
The polls of at least 600 likely voters in each state have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. (
Click
Here is a summary of the results in each race polled:
CONNECTICUT - Sen. Joseph Lieberman, running as an independent, has a 53 percent to 33 percent lead on Democratic anti-war challenger Ned Lamont. Lieberman, a three-term Democratic incumbent, lost the party primary in August after Lamont attacked his support for the Iraq war.
MARYLAND - Democratic Rep. Ben Cardin leads Republican Lt. Gov. Michael Steele by 45 percent to 37 percent in the race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Paul Sarbanes.
MISSOURI - Republican Sen. Jim Talent leads Democratic state Auditor Claire McCaskill by 43 percent to 39 percent in a contest that has been close all year.
MONTANA - Democrat Jon Tester leads Republican Sen. Conrad Burns 46 percent to 42 percent after Burns suffered a series of problems, from returning donations from associates of convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff to comments seen as insensitive to some ethnic groups and to out-of-state firefighters.
NEW JERSEY - Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez, considered vulnerable after polls showed a tightening race, leads Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr. by 45 percent to 35 percent.
OHIO - Republican Sen. Mike DeWine has pulled into a dead heat with Democratic Rep. Sherrod Brown at 41 percent each. DeWine had been trailing in other recent polls.
PENNSYLVANIA - Rick Santorum, the third-ranking Senate Republican, trails Democrat Bob Casey Jr., the son of a popular former governor, by 48 percent to 36 percent.
RHODE ISLAND - Sen. Lincoln Chafee, a moderate Republican in one of the most Democratic states, trails Democratic challenger Sheldon Whitehouse by 45 percent to 41 percent.
TENNESSEE - In a race for the open seat of retiring Senate Republican Leader Bill Frist, Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. and Republican Bob Corker, the former mayor of Chattanooga, are deadlocked at 40 percent each.
VIRGINIA - Republican Sen. George Allen has survived a series of recent campaign missteps to take a 48 percent to 37 percent lead over Democratic challenger James Webb.
There are others, but these are trending the be some of the most fierce fights.
_________________________________________________________________________________
CONCLUSION
_________________________________________________________________________________
With exactly one week until judgment day, this is one of the more interesting elections I've seen in a long time. If the Democrats lose both House AND Senate, they'll basically be renamed the
Pussycrats and have to gut their party entirely with some serious soul searching if they can't even win in the face of the countless problems/scandals surrounding the Republican party. If the Republicans can't win, the Karl Rove grinding unstoppable machine will finally be put to rest, and an era will end. It will also force critical rethinking on several key issues, including the Iraq war.
An interesting time, for sure.
