Survey Finds 'Two Nations in One'
Survey Results (.pdf): The Vanishing Center of American Democracy
Note: This post is just a summary, reading directly from the authors provides a much clearer narrative.
“This election brings into relief that America is in some ways two nations within a nation. Each nation has its own values and visions of what the country represents. ‘Trump’ and ‘Clinton’ are highly symbolic, like flags around which each nation, or tribe, mobilizes.”
Survey Results (.pdf): The Vanishing Center of American Democracy
Note: This post is just a summary, reading directly from the authors provides a much clearer narrative.
- Of those who say they will vote for Clinton, 73% agree that “the government should do more to improve the lives of ordinary Americans,” compared to 24% of those voting for Trump.
- Of those saying they will vote for Trump, 77% say that they were in favor of “building a wall across the border between the US and Mexico,” compared to only 8% of those voting for Clinton.
- 70% of all Trump supporters favor “banning entry to all Muslims until we better understand the threat to our country,” while 82% of all Clinton supporters oppose that policy.
- When asked “if more Americans legally carried weapons in public” would it make our nation safer or more dangerous, 79% of Clinton supporters said it would make the nation more dangerous, while 68% of Trump supporters said it would make the nation safer.
- 85% of all Trump supporters were in favor of “repealing the Affordable Care Act,” while 73% of all Clinton supporters opposed that idea.
- 47% of all Americans believe that America “is the greatest country in the world, better than all other countries” and 43% see America as “a great country, but so are certain other countries.”
- 81% also agree that “America is an exceptional nation with a special responsibility to lead the world.” 93%, they also describe themselves as patriotic. 57% describe themselves as “very patriotic.”
- Yet despite this abundance of admiration and patriotism, the mood in the nation is not positive. Indeed, less than 5% of all respondents believe that America is “strongly improving.” Instead, half of all Americans believe it is in decline, 26% believe it is “strongly declining” 23% believe it is moderately declining.
- 33% of Americans believe that the nation is “holding steady.” There is a remarkable continuity here over the past two decades.
- Whether in decline or not, 58% of all respondents agree that “the American way of life,” whatever they understand that to mean, “is rapidly disappearing.
- As they assess their own circumstances, Americans are divided in how they see the trajectory of their own lot in life over the last 25 years: 36% say their life has gotten worse, 36% say it has improved, and 27% see it as holding steady. Americans are similarly divided in how they imagine their future: 36% better, 29% the same, and 35% worse.
- As they assess their “current financial situation,” Americans are split down the middle: 42% see their financial situation as good or excellent, 36% see it as fair, and 14% poor. With some minor but important exceptions, all of these views are held fairly consistently across many demographic groupings.
- The source of the general disquiet in the nation, then, does not seem to be a reflection of personal circumstances, as varied as they are. Rather, the disquiet is rooted in their perception of the governing institutions of the nation and their leadership. It is important to note that it isn’t American democracy per se that is the problem.
- 64% of the American public have little to no confidence that “the government in Washington” will actually solve the problems it sets its mind to.
- We asked this question in 1996 and found much the same — the figure was 60% two decades ago. The difference is that, 20 years on, the attitudes have hardened: Where 21% of the American population said they had no confidence at all in 1996, that figure jumped to 30% in 2016.
- The cynicism about the government is astonishing. To give a sense of how deep it is, consider the fact that 88% of Americans believe that “political events these days seem more like theater or entertainment than like something to be taken seriously.” Here, too, public opinion has hardened: In 1996, 79% agreed with that statement, 31% agreeing completely.27 Today, 45% of the American public completely agree with this view.
- The concern Americans have is neither abstract nor negligible to them. Their suspicions are broadly, if not universally, held: 56% of all respondents today, for example, agree that “the government in Washington threatens the freedom of ordinary Americans.”
- Americans are ambivalent about the apparatus of both leading parties. On the one hand, 57% of all self-identified Republicans and 78% of all self-described Democrats say that their respective parties “represent their own views of how the government should operate.”
- On the other hand, 63% also believe that “what Americans really need is a new political party because the current two-party system isn’t working.” 53% of all Democrats and 56% Republicans hold this view, but 74% of the growing number of Independents are especially adamant about this.
- The expansion of Independents during the last 20 years itself attests to the weakening of the two-party system. Our 1996 Survey found 31% identifying themselves as Independents. By this year, it had risen to 42%, more than identify with either of the major parties. All of this points to the declining credibility of the political parties as carriers of the claims, aspirations and, in turn, the shared identity and solidarity they once provided.
- 90% — nine of ten Americans — believe that “most politicians are more interested in winning elections than in doing what is right.”
- 73% agree that “most elected officials don’t care what people like me think.”
- Over 70% believe that while the “system of government is good… the people running it are incompetent.”
- 63% agree that “people like me don’t have any say about what the government does.”
- 45% agree that “the police and law enforcement unfairly target racial and ethnic minorities,” though among African-Americans, the number swells to 83%, and among Hispanics, the figure is 56%.
- 84% agree that “Wall Street and big business in our country often profit at the expense of ordinary Americans.”
- 73% of all Americans believe that “our economic system is rigged in favor of the wealthiest Americans.” These findings reinforce a longstanding distrust toward the motives and influences of big business.
- 62% of the American public agrees that “the leaders in American corporations, media, universities and technology care little about the lives of most Americans.”
- 62% of the public is convinced that “the most educated and successful people in America are more interested in serving themselves than in serving the common good.
- 86% of all respondents agreed that “most Americans vote without really thinking through the issues.”
- 71% of Americans want to believe — at least for themselves — that “if you follow the rules and behave responsibly, you can pretty much expect life will turn out well.”
- 59% of respondents agree that “America used to be a place where you could get ahead by working hard, but this is no longer true.” Indeed, 41% believe that “hard work and determination are no guarantee of success for most Americans.”
- We have seen how strong majorities of Americans believe that politicians and leaders in business, the media, education and technology don’t care about ordinary people like them; that these leaders and the institutions they represent serve primarily themselves, not average people or the common good.
- 38% of Americans agree that “these days, I feel like a stranger in my own country.”
- Given the extent of disaffection, it is not surprising that Americans want change. 9% believe that the American “system of government is good and needs very little change.” 33% believe that the American “system of government is fine, but the people running it need to be changed.”
- 46% want to go further, believing that “major changes are needed in both the system and the people running it.” Beyond this, 12% of Americans take the most radical position that “the system of government itself is broken and needs to be replaced with something completely different.”
- 72% of Americans agree that we need “a President who will completely change the direction of this country;” 40% “completely agree.”
- We asked, “If we had a President you really believed in and trusted, would you want the President’s actions to be limited by Congress and the Courts, as they are now, or would you want the President authorized to enact his or her agenda even if Congress did not support it?” 81% of Americans said that they would want to retain the system of checks and balances, but 19% that the president “should be authorized to act without Congressional support.”
- One of the problems perceived by a wide swath of the American public is the issue of political correctness. 73% of Americans believe that “political correctness is a serious problem in our country, making it hard for people to say what they really think.” This view holds across the board, though an even greater % of those with lower educational attainment and people of conservative religious faith tend to share this opinion.
- The problem is reflected in the 2016 Survey of American Political Culture. 67% of the American public have little to no confidence at all “in the people who run our government to tell the truth to the public.”
- The problem of truth is not confined to politicians. It also extends to the one institution whose civic purpose is to convey accurate information to the public: the media. 74% of Americans agree that “you can’t believe much of what you hear from the mainstream media.”
- While popular trust in the media “to report the news fully, accurately and fairly” has been slowly declining for many years, a clear majority now doubt the media’s veracity. Given the importance of good journalism — and the information it provides to an electorate and a vital democracy — this is an extraordinary development. The media, many now believe, are not trusted to convey the basic information needed for substantive political engagement.
- The political distrust Americans have of each other doesn’t run quite as deep as it does for the government, but it is extensive all the same. 53% of the respondents had just a little or no confidence “in the wisdom of the American people when it comes to electing their national leaders.”
- 68% of all Social Elites said, “government should do more to improve the lives of ordinary Americans” compared to 70% of the Disinherited who believe that “government is doing too many things that are better left to businesses, civic groups, and individuals.”
- 87% of all Social Elites take the view that “immigrants strengthen our country because of their hard work and talents.” 67% of the Disadvantaged take this view as well. This drops to 49% among the Disinherited who hold this view, while 51% believe that “immigrants are a burden on our country who take jobs, housing, and health care.”
- 76% of the Disinherited are in favor of greatly reducing the number of immigrants entering the United States, compared to 51% of the Disadvantaged and 22% of the Social Elite.
- The same general discrepancy can be seen in their views toward “building a wall across the border between the U.S. and Mexico.” 66% of the Disinherited favor building such a wall, compared to 32% of the Disadvantaged and only 9% of all Social Elites.
- 63% of all the Disinherited favor “banning entry to all Muslims until we better understand the terrorist threat to our country,” compared to 36% of all of the Disadvantaged and just 14% of the Social Elite. These cultural discrepancies, associated with underlying differences in education and religiosity, go beyond the realm of simple contrast; they appear to reflect completely different cultural worlds.
The findings of the 2016 Survey of American Political Culture also suggest that the candidates themselves, in concert with the media, have a role in intensifying the political divisions. They crystallize political differences, not unlike a flag around whom supporters unite and act together. Thus, we see the stark differences noted at the start of this report:
- 77% of Trump supporters say they are in favor of “building a wall across the border between the US and Mexico,” compared to 8% of Clinton supporters.
- 70% of all Trump supporters favor “banning entry to all Muslims until we better understand the threat to our country,” compared to 82% of the Clinton supporters who oppose that policy.
- 85% of Trump supporters are in favor of “repealing the Affordable Care Act,” while 73% of Clinton supporters oppose the idea.
- 79% of Clinton supporters agree that “if more Americans legally carried weapons in public,” it would make our nation more dangerous, compared to 68% of all Trump supporters who say it would make the nation safer.
- 77% of Trump supporters see the United States declining, while 75% of Clinton supporters see the nation holding steady or improving.
- 81% of Trump supporters have little to no confidence that the government in Washington can solve problems and 88% have little to no confidence that the people in our government tell the truth, compared to half of all Clinton supporters who have some or a lot of confidence on both points.
- 80% of all Trump supporters agree that the government in Washington threatens the freedom of ordinary Americans, compared to 61% of Clinton supporters who disagree with that statement.
- 82% of Clinton supporters favor increasing the tax rate on the wealthiest Americans, compared to 53% of Trump supporters who oppose that policy.
- 81% of Trump supporters disagree that the police and law enforcement unfairly target racial and ethnic minorities, compared to 65% of Clinton supporters who agree with that statement.
- 83% of Trump supporters agree that the United States has been too weak in dealing with other nations, compared to 68% of Clinton supporters who disagree with this view.
- 76% of Trump supporters favor greatly reducing the number of immigrants entering the United States, compared to 71% of Clinton supporters who oppose that policy.
- 88% of Clinton supporters say that immigrants strengthen our country because of their hard work and talents, compared to 52% of Trump supporters who say that immigrants are a burden on our country because they take away jobs, housing and health care.
- 73% of Clinton supporters favor requiring all areas of the country to officially permit gay marriage, compared to 61% of Trump supporters who oppose that policy.
- 93% of Trump’s supporters agree that “political correctness is a serious problem in our country, making it hard for people to say what they really think,” compared to 56% of Clinton supporters who share that view.
- 70% of Clinton supporters agree that our founding fathers were part of a racist and sexist culture that gave important roles to white men while harming minorities and women, compared to 74% of Trump supporters who disagree.
In the 2016 Survey of American Political Culture, we ask, “For the following groups, do you see their beliefs and values as being completely different, mostly different, mostly similar or completely the same as Americans like you?” Here is the mapping as it plays out in the general population:
The greatest social distance is seen not along racial or ethnic lines, but along lines of class, with the wealthiest Americans and its cultural elite seen as furthest removed from the values and beliefs of the majority. The perception of difference from Muslim Americans is less than from the economic and cultural elite, but still quite strong. By comparison, the perceived cultural difference with African-Americans and Hispanics is relatively small.
The findings of the 2016 Survey of American Political Culture, however, tell a story that is probably more about continuity than it is about change.
An antagonistic public discourse is hardly new in American history. What is new is the absence of a balance of thoughtful, political engagement by a seasoned and knowledgeable political class. What is also new is a media platform that favors the partisan over the nonpartisan, the sensational over the substantive, the superficial over the serious and the stupid over the sagacious. The relentless pursuit of ratings, market share and advertising dollars by the media establishment practically guarantee that it will continue to stoke a radically polarized, overheated and truncated public discourse well into the future.
After a half century of polling, one can say with near certainty that the confidence that average citizens have in their leaders and the governing institutions of American democracy have suffered blows that will continue to have lasting effects.
Does the 2016 election signify a tipping point? We will know only in retrospect. American democracy has never fully embodied its ideals in the past and it will never fully do so in the future. But there are darker alternatives that seem more visible and foreboding than we have seen in a while. The cultural conditions that have made those alternatives plausible will likely be with us for some time to come.
