• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

March 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, April 11th

D

donny2112

Member
ITT, predict for the NPD March 2017 retail period (February 26-April 1, 2017) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, April 11th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: February 26-April 1, 2017 (5 weeks, February was 4 weeks)
NPD Physical Release: Thursday, April 13th @ 4 p.m. EDT (public thread with physical+digital posted 1 week later on April 20th ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] 200000


Potential hardware impacting events in March:
Nintendo Switch (NSW) release March 3 - 30 days
Zelda: Breath of the Wild (NSW/WIU) March 3 - 30 days

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

(February's results not public)
February's #1 predictor
Conduit said:
[PS4] 410K
[XB1] 210K
Click to expand...

February 2016 NPD thread
March 2016 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive


Notes:
NSW highest selling Nintendo platform in first 2 days in U.S.
 
T

Trust me. I'm a PhD

Member
[NSW] 745K
[PS4] 325K
[XB1] 198K

Switch has really great for Nintendo, but lower than PS4 or Xbox1 debut. PS4 has normal February to March drop, but it can still be found cheap and still has big and small acclaimed releases, so does well. Xbox1 drops, but a low price and well received multiplatform releases like Wildlands do well for it. All of this subject to change.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
[NSW] 749K
[PS4] 318K
[XB1] 203K

Retail Software
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Wildlands: 975K
Zelda: Breath of the Wild: 850K [NSW: 650K | WIU: 200K]
Horizon Zero Dawn: 820K
Mass Effect Andromeda: 570K
1, 2, Switch: 190K
Kingdom Hearts 1.5 + 2.5 Remix: 110K
Super Bomberman R: 80K
NieR: Automata: 60K

Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of February. This is where comparing weekly averages is beneficial as March is a 5 week month while February is 4 weeks. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for March to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.

I will be removing Xbox 360 and PS3 results in 2015/2016 from this point on. Sales are so low at this point it doesn't matter.

Code: 
2011

Xbox 360 February: 535K / 4 = 133,750
Xbox 360 March: 433K / 5 = 86,600

Weekly average down 35%

PS3 February: 403K / 4 = 100,750
PS3 March: 365K / 5 = 73,000

Weekly average down 28%

Code: 
Notable Events in March

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Homefront [3 weeks]
Dragon Age II [4 weeks]
Crysis 2 [2 weeks]
Fight Night Champion [5 weeks]
LEGO Star Wars III: The Clone Wars [2 weeks]

[u]PS3[/u]
Homefront [3 weeks]
Dragon Age II [4 weeks]
MLB 11: The Show [4 weeks]
Crysis 2 [2 weeks]
Fight Night Champion [5 weeks]
LEGO Star Wars III: The Clone Wars [2 weeks]

Code: 
2012

Xbox 360 February: 426K / 4 = 106,500
Xbox 360 March: 371K / 5 = 74,200

Weekly average down 30%

PS3 February: 347K / 4 = 86,750
PS3 March: 337K / 5 = 67,400

Weekly average down 28%

Code: 
Notable Events in March

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Mass Effect 3 [4 weeks] [943K]
Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City [2 weeks]
SSX [5 weeks]
Street Fighter X Tekken [4 weeks]

[u]PS3[/u]
Mass Effect 3 [4 weeks] [237k]
MLB 12: The Show [4 weeks]
Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City [2 weeks]
SSX [5 weeks]
Street Fighter X Tekken [4 weeks]

Code: 
2013

Xbox 360 February: 302K / 4 = 75,500
Xbox 360 March: 261K / 5 = 52,200

Weekly average down 31%

PS3 February: 262K / 4 = 65,500
PS3 March: 211K / 5 = 42,200

Weekly average down 36%

Code: 
Notable Events in March

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Gears of War: Judgement [3 weeks] [620K]
BioShock Infinite [2 weeks] [583K]
Tomb Raider [5 weeks] [346K]
The Walking Dead: Survival Instinct [3 weeks]
Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 3 [5 weeks]

[u]PS3[/u]
God of War: Ascension + God of War Saga 500GB Garnet Red Bundle $349

God of War: Ascension [4 weeks] [633K w/bundles]
MLB 13: The Show [5 weeks]
Tomb Raider [5 weeks] [294K]
BioShock Infinite [2 weeks] [287K]
The Walking Dead: Survival Instinct [3 weeks]
Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 3 [5 weeks]

Code: 
2014

Xbox One February: 258K / 4 = 64,500
Xbox One March: 311K / 5 = 62,200

Weekly average down 4%

PS4 February: 269K / 4 = 67,250
PS4 March: 371K / 5 = 74,200

Weekly average up 10%

Xbox 360 February: 114K / 4 = 28,500
Xbox 360 March: 111K / 5 = 22,200

Weekly average down 22%

PS3 February: 102K / 4 = 25,500
PS3 March: 67K / 5 = 13,400

Weekly average down 47%

Code: 
Notable Events in March

[u]Xbox One[/u]
Titanfall 500GB Bundle $499 [4 weeks] [218K]

Titanfall [4 weeks] [865K]
Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes [3 weeks] [~56K]

[u]PS4[/u]
Supply finally readily available

Infamous Second Son [3 weeks] [<500K]
Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes [3 weeks] [~150K]

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
South Park: The Stick of Truth [5 weeks] [<242K]
Dark Souls 2 [4 weeks] [<171.5K]

[u]PS3[/u]
Final Fantasy X / X-2 HD Remaster [3 weeks] [208K]
South Park: The Stick of Truth [5 weeks] [<198K]
Dark Souls 2 [4 weeks] [<178.5K]
Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes [3 weeks] [52.8K]

Code: 
2015

Xbox One February: 276K / 4 = 69,000
Xbox One March: 229K / 5 = 45,800

Weekly average down 34%

PS4 February: 342K / 4 = 85,500
PS4 March: 330K / 5 = 66,000

Weekly average down 23%

Code: 
Notable Events in March

[u]Xbox One[/u]
Halo: The Master Chief Collection 500GB bundle $349 [4 weeks]

Battlefield Hardline [3 weeks] [>430K]
Final Fantasy Type O [3 weeks] [>42K]

[u]PS4[/u]
Battlefield Hardline [3 weeks] [>400K]
Bloodborne [2 weeks] [387K]
MLB 15: The Show [1 week]
Final Fantasy Type O [3 weeks] [158K]

Code: 
2016

Xbox One February: 248K / 4 = 62,000
Xbox One March: 242K / 5 = 48,400

Weekly average down 22%

PS4 February: 405K / 4 = 101,250
PS4 March: 330K / 5 = 66,000

Weekly average down 35%

Code: 
Notable Events in March

[u]Xbox One[/u]
$50 price cut on all models March 22nd - April 30th (12 days in March NPD / 2 weeks)

The Division 1TB bundle $399 [4 weeks] [~20K]
Quantum Break 500GB White bundle $349 [1 week]

The Division [4 weeks] [844K]
EA Sports UFC 2 [3 weeks]

[u]PS4[/u]
The Division [4 weeks] [928K]
EA Sports UFC 2 [3 weeks]
MLB 16: The Show [1 week] [<179K]

Code: 
2017 February Weekly Averages 

[IMG]http://awesomegifs.com/wp-content/uploads/george-michael-snoopy-walk.gif[/IMG]

Code: 
Notable Events in March

[u]Nintendo Switch[/u]
LAUNCH $299* [5 weeks] *Selling out

Zelda: Breath of the Wild [5 weeks]
1, 2, Switch [5 weeks]
Super Bomberman R [5 weeks]

[u]Xbox One[/u]
$50 Price cut ends first day of the month (February 26th)
Xbox One S Minecraft 500GB Bundle $249 March 12th - 18th [1 week]
Free game deal March 19th - 25th [1 week]

Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Wildlands [4 weeks]
LEGO Worlds [4 weeks]
Mass Effect Andromeda [2 weeks]

[u]PS4[/u]
$50 Price cut ends first day of the month (February 26th)

Horizon Zero Dawn [5 weeks]
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Wildlands [4 weeks]
LEGO Worlds [4 weeks]
NieR: Automata [4 weeks]
Mass Effect Andromeda [2 weeks]
Kingdom Hearts 1.5 + 2.5 Remix [1 week]
MLB The Show 17 [1 week]

Notes:

In terms of total sales, March is one of the bigger non holiday months of the year, but is when sales start to slow down as we go into spring and summer. Even with an additional week, total month sales are below February. The exception here is March 2014 for PS4 and XB1 but those are of course, exceptions.

Xbox
The Xbox 360 dropped an average of -30%, with a minimum of -22% (2014) and maximum of -35% (2011).

The Xbox One is a bit harder to put down in terms of averages as March 2014 had the launch of highly anticipated GOTG ”HAVE YOU SEEN IT" Titanfall® with a bundle that basically gave it away for free, resulting in a -4% drop from February (another example of how the Xbox One was in trouble, not even that could keep sales up). 2015 saw a more traditional drop of -34% and 2016 had a more conservative drop of -22% thanks to a $50 price drop at the end of the month. Removing 2014, the Xbox One drop is an average of -28%, which is normal for March.

Playstation
The PS3 dropped an average -33% with a minimum of -22% (2012) and maximum of -47% (2014). If you to remove 2014, the PS3 average was closer to -28%.

PS4 has a pretty clear outlier in 2014 as there were stock shortages for holiday 2013 and early 2014. March 2014 is when PS4 got a hefty supply replenishment this month and was able to get supply over demand. 2015 was more reasonable with a drop of -23% and 2016 -35%. Removing 2014, the PS4 drop is an average of -29%. Like XB1, this is normal.

Nintendo
We know Switch was the fastest selling launch for a Nintendo in history up to at least the first 5 days. Switch was a Friday launch, while every other Nintendo hardware launch was a Sunday. We have first week sales for Nintendo so here they are.

First Week *All 7 days*
Gamecube: >500K https://www.cnet.com/news/nintendo-reports-record-gamecube-launch/
Nintendo DS: 479K
Wii: 476K
Wii U: 425K
3DS: 398K

The last Nintendo launch in March was 3DS in March 2011. This was one week and it launched at 398K. The next 4 weeks (April) it sold an additional 194K, so the first 5 weeks for 3DS was 592K. Switch has an entire 5 weeks in the March NPD and with the fact it was the fastest selling system for Nintendo and has shown no signs of slowing down, the debut should be higher than this. Much higher.

Recap
March is down from February both in weekly sales average and total month sales. Weekly average from February is anywhere in the -25% to -35% range.

The biggest March ever recorded back in the 7th gen was the Wii with 721K back in 2008. Second biggest? Wii again with 601K in 2009.

The biggest March ever recorded in the 8th gen is the PS4 with 371K in 2014. Second biggest? PS4 again with 330K in 2016.
 
S

sirronoh

Member
[NSW] 722K
[PS4] 335K
[XB1] 170K

Switch should easily rule the month. Outside of that, it's difficult to guess since we likely won't get confirmation for March and never got confirmation for February.

If I had to suggest something, I'd go with PS4 doing fairly well due to the highly publicized new games (not just in March but a residual effect from February and January).

For Xbox, I think any momentum they had from 2nd half of 2016 is now completely gone. The tale of 2017 across social media has been very positive for PS4 and to some extent the Switch as well (largely due to Zelda) but either apathetic or negative towards Xbox and I think that starts to play a role in sales, further separating PS4 and Xbox going into Q2.

This could be a good time to open the floodgates on Scorpio because if Xbox One S sales are low, MS has nothing to lose and that will be a good win for them media-wise.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
sirronoh said:
[NSW] 722K
[PS4] 335K
[XB1] 170K

Switch should easily rule the month. Outside of that, it's difficult to guess since we likely won't get confirmation for March and never got confirmation for February.

If I had to suggest something, I'd go with PS4 doing fairly well due to the highly publicized new games (not just in March but a residual effect from February and January).

For Xbox, I think any momentum they had from 2nd half of 2016 is now completely gone. The tale of 2017 across social media has been very positive for PS4 and to some extent the Switch as well (largely due to Zelda) but either apathetic or negative towards Xbox and I think that starts to play a role in sales, further separating PS4 and Xbox going into Q2.

This could be a good time to open the floodgates on Scorpio because if Xbox One S sales are low, MS has nothing to lose and that will be a good win for them media-wise.
Click to expand...

It'll be a win media wise, but only through the weekend imo. Then we are right back to where we are. Waiting. Waiting for the console to drop, and games. E3 should be good as they can focus on said games, but I still don't see much changing. They need more than just a media win.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
Boke1879 said:
It'll be a win media wise, but only through the weekend imo. Then we are right back to where we are. Waiting. Waiting for the console to drop, and games. E3 should be good as they can focus on said games, but I still don't see much changing. They need more than just a media win.
Click to expand...

It seems that MS is willing to take a hit if it means coming strong during the Holiday season and 2018.

The first half of 2017 being a slower period for them was pretty much evident back during E3 2016 after they showed their lineup, and stated that a new Xbox would come one year after the S. Scalebound cancellation caused even more of a drop though.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Even though the Xbox family showed a fantastic performance in March with healthy growth in next to all stakeholder-relevant key figures they were not able to shout it from the rooftops, as those were all blocked by Switch hipster parties.
 
D

Darth Smurf X

Member
[NSW] 725K
[PS4] 325K
[XB1] 190K

Software:
1. Ghost Recon: Wildlands (900K)
2. Horizon: Zero Dawn (850K)
3. Zelda: Breath of the Wild (820K)
4. Mass Effect: Andromeda (650K)
 
J

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
[NSW] 680K
[PS4] 300K
[XB1] 185K

We expecting big things from Switch huh.

To get the thread off to an interesting start, lol

Since I see the Switch as a handheld, how do these predictions compare to the 3DS launch sales?

Wait a min, I missed the last prediction thread....no more 3DS predictions?
 
K

Kazuo Hirai

I really want everyone to know how much more Titanfall 2 sold than Nioh. It was a staggering amount.
[NSW] 800K
[PS4] 340K
[XB1] 180K

bombshell said:
Wow, I didn't know that the gap between PS4 and XB1 was that big last month.
Click to expand...
There're many times that Xbox out the Top 100 on Amazon US since Feb
 
O

OléGunner

Member
[NSW] 705K
[PS4] 330K
[XB1] 185K

Thinking the Xbone might get stomped this month.
Ghost Recon should land first place with some eye watering high numbers (near a million)

Horizon should do great numbers as well maybe 600-700K.
 
M

MatPiscatella

Member
Hey party people,

The promised recap for the month may be a little bit delayed as I have some travel coming up that'll get in the way. Hopefully not, but if it is you'll know why.

Still pushing for the top 20, and some of the other improvements suggested in the Feb thread. Won't be implemented this month, however.

Although we have no data in yet, anticipating March to be something special.

As for the rest of the year, well, I still have a forecast that has XBO taking the year by approx. 200k units, but that's entirely dependent on Scorpio pushing 600k+ in the year and assumes that we're going to get a bunch of software announcements around the marketing kick off for it, and it also assumes the price isn't going to be five hundred and ninety nine US dollars. That's a lot of assumptions, and I wouldn't be surprised at all should PS4 actually sell considerably more than XBO this year, especially if that HW price point gets around $600. Guess we'll have to see how it goes, but I'm continuing to lean on the "believe" scenario for XBO this year, at least until we see actual price points and software.
 
D

donny2112

Member
jroc74 said:
Wait a min, I missed the last prediction thread....no more 3DS predictions?
Click to expand...

Not for this year. Still expect another dedicated handheld from Nintendo. Curious if it'll be a pared down Switch or (hopefully) keep the 2-screen legacy on a new system.
 
S

Sangetsu-II

Member
MatPiscatella said:
Hey party people,

The promised recap for the month may be a little bit delayed as I have some travel coming up that'll get in the way. Hopefully not, but if it is you'll know why.

Still pushing for the top 20, and some of the other improvements suggested in the Feb thread. Won't be implemented this month, however.

Although we have no data in yet, anticipating March to be something special.

As for the rest of the year, well, I still have a forecast that has XBO taking the year by approx. 200k units, but that's entirely dependent on Scorpio pushing 600k+ in the year and assumes that we're going to get a bunch of software announcements around the marketing kick off for it, and it also assumes the price isn't going to be five hundred and ninety nine US dollars. That's a lot of assumptions, and I wouldn't be surprised at all should PS4 actually sell considerably more than XBO this year, especially if that HW price point gets around $600. Guess we'll have to see how it goes, but I'm continuing to lean on the "believe" scenario for XBO this year, at least until we see actual price points and software.
Click to expand...

Thank you for keeping us up to date and again for considering our feedback. We appreciate it.
 
B

BlackBuzzard

Banned
[NSW] 702K
[PS4] 420K
[XB1] 220K

High PS4 numbers cause i believe in that Horizon bump.

Top 3 software.

1.Ghost Recon
2.Horizon
3.Zelda
 
M

MatPiscatella

Member
Quick update: Based on your direct feedback, we're changing the Top 10 All Platforms chart to a Top 20 All Platforms chart for the March data release and going forward.

The by platform charts will remain top 10.
 
Unknown?

Unknown?

Member
January's 50k lead put PS4 at 1.75M ahead and February was at least 170k ahead putting it at a minimum of 1.92 ahead of XB1. I think March will push it over 2M lead.
 
D

Darth Smurf X

Member
MatPiscatella said:
Quick update: Based on your direct feedback, we're changing the Top 10 All Platforms chart to a Top 20 All Platforms chart for the March data release and going forward.

The by platform charts will remain top 10.
Click to expand...

Sweet.

Any chance of this format returning?

1. Destiny 2 (PS4, XBO, NS, PC)
2. Red Dead Redemption 2 (PS4, XBO, PC)
3. Halo 6 (XBO)
4. Detroit: Become Human (PS4)
5. ... (the order in which they sold best for each platform)

I miss that.
 
B

blakep267

Member
MatPiscatella said:
Quick update: Based on your direct feedback, we're changing the Top 10 All Platforms chart to a Top 20 All Platforms chart for the March data release and going forward.

The by platform charts will remain top 10.
Click to expand...

Cool. I've always wondered what games are just out of the picture /missing the top 10. Alsonot could give a better idea of legs on some games
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
MatPiscatella said:
Quick update: Based on your direct feedback, we're changing the Top 10 All Platforms chart to a Top 20 All Platforms chart for the March data release and going forward.

The by platform charts will remain top 10.
Click to expand...
That was fast. Thanks for getting that through.
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
[NSW] 710K
[PS4] 320K
[XB1] 190K

NSW obviously did good, only supply constrained.
PS4 was boosted by strong Q1 lineup and Horizon particularly in March.
 
M

MatPiscatella

Member
Darth Smurf X said:
Sweet.

Any chance of this format returning?

1. Destiny 2 (PS4, XBO, NS, PC)
2. Red Dead Redemption 2 (PS4, XBO, PC)
3. Halo 6 (XBO)
4. Detroit: Become Human (PS4)
5. ... (the order in which they sold best for each platform)

I miss that.
Click to expand...

So, on this one... I think we can revisit this once we have more universal coverage within the digital leader panel. Right now, platform ranking within a title could be a bit misleading. I can see this potentially returning, but it's a long term goal.

More immediate priorities are continuing to expand the digital leader panel (more news on this shortly), continuing to improve the media release by including meaningful and reliable rankings and data points, and in getting the physical and digital data releases aligned so they come out on the same day, and we no longer have the week between the two as we do now.
 
D

Darth Smurf X

Member
MatPiscatella said:
So, on this one... I think we can revisit this once we have more universal coverage within the digital leader panel. Right now, platform ranking within a title could be a bit misleading. I can see this potentially returning, but it's a long term goal.

More immediate priorities are continuing to expand the digital leader panel (more news on this shortly), continuing to improve the media release by including meaningful and reliable rankings and data points, and in getting the physical and digital data releases aligned so they come out on the same day, and we no longer have the week between the two as we do now.
Click to expand...

Awesome. All of these things are needed and just knowing this item is on the "to do" list makes me happy.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
MatPiscatella said:
Quick update: Based on your direct feedback, we're changing the Top 10 All Platforms chart to a Top 20 All Platforms chart for the March data release and going forward.

The by platform charts will remain top 10.
Click to expand...

Uuuh, that's honestly a great news :D IIRC top 20s were usually released a few days after official results back in 2007/2008/2009, quite happy to see them return.
 
A

Apt101

Member
[NSW] 680K
[PS4] 295K
[XB1] 140K

I think strong releases helped the PS4 maintain good sells, but I don't think they caused a significant increase. I'm sure Horizon helped their Pro figures for the month.

I'm low balling the Switch prediction because I think that Nintendo undershipped to the region a great deal. This would still be above the 600k the Wii sold in the Americas in its first week-ish on the market.

I can't think of any reason outside of wanting a UHD player that would have driven buyers to the XB1.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Circana (NPD) Hardware Sales for 2022 - NSW 5830k | PS5 5660k | XBS 4480k
Sales-Age 2 3 4 5
230
11K
Woopah replied
Circana (NPD) February 2024: #1 Helldivers 2 #2 FF7 Rebirth #4 Skull and Bones #8 FF7 Twin Pack; PS5 #1 Units+Rev, Switch #2 Units Xbox #2 Rev
Sales-Age 2 3 4 5
232
13K
Radical_3d replied
Circana (NPD) April 2023: #1 Jedi Survivor 4 #2 Dead Island 2 #7 PGA Tour #8 Battle Netowrk; NSW #1 Units, PS5 #1 Revenue
2 3
141
9K
Setsuna Mudou replied
Circana (NPD) July 2023: #1 Remnant II, #6 Pikmin 4; PS5 #1 Units + Revenue, Switch #2 Units + Revenue
Sales-Age 2 3 4
161
14K
Thick Thighs Save Lives replied
Circana (NPD) October 2023: #1 Spider-Man 2 #2 Super Mario Wonder #3 AC Mirage; PS5 #1 Units + Revenue, NSW #2 Units, XBS #2 Revenue
Sales-Age 3 4 5 6 7
307
21K
Unknown? replied
Top Bottom