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March 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, April 11th

S

slavesnyder

Member
Rymuth said:
(...)
Now It's about the hardcore Xbox players. The ones that buy Forza/Halo/Gears every time without fail. That core is furious at you for letting the competition wave the 'best graphics' card so you give them a more powerful console to placate them, give them BC so they never jump ship--anything to keep them engaged with the ecosystem so you are guaranteed a certain number of Xbox live subscriptions and REQ packs. Grab that very specific audience by the throat and you never let go.
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good text here, rymuth.
This sounds a lot like whale-milking in free to play mobile market. secure a fanbase that will provide a constant stream of currencies.
The problem is that this just cannot be enough as a target for a big player like microsoft. they started for conquering the living room and end up with hardcore in the attic. niche is nice, but if they really now concentrate on the scorpio they hurt their base model and also throw their mau-mantra overboard. mau was about catching as many souls as possible, now it's the happy few. again a strategy change. if the huge narrative now will be that all 3rd party and xbox exclusives look best on xbox scorpio (for 450$ or more), this leaves the S even more behind. I'm pretty excited how they will communicate the whole thing.

A big reason might be, and here I am with you, to get back technological leadership. For MS standard, being the outclassed console just hurts, so they throw a scorpio on it. I'm eager to see it and it seems like a great machine so far. And if this is really the start for generationless consoles, this will be a very important moment for the future of gaming.

getting the specstaculum out of the way and done via DF was excellent. not only that E3 can now concentrate on stuff people and mainstream media actually understand and care about like games, naming, price and features, but the most important thing is that it's not MS PR who had to explain the tech!!! They leave it to people who actually understand stuff, have credibility and are good at explaining. This is really smart overall. For my taste, the timing was just a tad too early, but on the other hand it was the best controlled leak ever.
 
S

samar11

Member
Darth Smurf X said:
This is probably what they actually meant. Losing CoD, Battlefront, Destiny and others really hurt them, especially since shooters were their bread and butter in the 360 days.
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Doesn't matter how powerful the xbox scoprio is, wont change the marketing deals ps4 has.. its all about the sales numbers. A niche product like that isn't going to change shit.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
samar11 said:
Doesn't matter how powerful the xbox scoprio is, wont change the marketing deals ps4 has.. its all about the sales numbers. A niche product like that isn't going to change shit.
Click to expand...

It's not going to change marketing deals but it will help in giving people more interest in how those games look on an Xbox branded console.
 
W

watdaeff4

Member
sirronoh said:
[NSW] 722K
[PS4] 335K
[XB1] 170K

Switch should easily rule the month. Outside of that, it's difficult to guess since we likely won't get confirmation for March and never got confirmation for February.

If I had to suggest something, I'd go with PS4 doing fairly well due to the highly publicized new games (not just in March but a residual effect from February and January).

For Xbox, I think any momentum they had from 2nd half of 2016 is now completely gone. The tale of 2017 across social media has been very positive for PS4 and to some extent the Switch as well (largely due to Zelda) but either apathetic or negative towards Xbox and I think that starts to play a role in sales, further separating PS4 and Xbox going into Q2.

This could be a good time to open the floodgates on Scorpio because if Xbox One S sales are low, MS has nothing to lose and that will be a good win for them media-wise.
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Damn fine analysis
 
A

Abdiel

Member
Sangetsu-II said:
Anybody know where Abdiel is?
Click to expand...

Elandyll said:
Was wondering the same...

#Abdielsignal
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Sangetsu-II said:
We really need that Switch performance update. Wanna see how the general public reacted.

We already know its gonna be SW, PS4, XB1 so we don't need that info.

Where is he xD
Click to expand...

Argh. I'm sorry guys. I've been busy with work, and then I've also devoted my free time to the deluge of games I've had lately so I haven't posted almost at all lately.

So since the switch launch... It's so sporadic. Whenever we get more in, it's gone in moments. You've all seen that thing where our site basically announced in advance it would have more to let people prepare.

The stock situation per store hasn't been great, as a result. I'm still trying to get exact numbers, it definitely is not shipping out as much inventory as we were getting of the ps4 and xb1 in their launch months.

Our Nintendo rep is extremely pleased with how the reception has been so far. Zelda sales remain almost a lock for consistency. 1 2 switch has sold okay, bomberman has sold okay.

Ps4 clearly outsold the Xbox this month as well. The sheer array of well received titles across different genres has really helped garner some great commentary this month, definitely a solid boost.

But it's not like the Xbox has stopped selling or anything. We've had good reception to various promos, and the 1s still is well received, it's just kind of coasting right now.
 
P

Primethius

Banned
Abdiel said:
Argh. I'm sorry guys. I've been busy with work, and then I've also devoted my free time to the deluge of games I've had lately so I haven't posted almost at all lately.

So since the switch launch... It's so sporadic. Whenever we get more in, it's gone in moments. You've all seen that thing where our site basically announced in advance it would have more to let people prepare.

The stock situation per store hasn't been great, as a result. I'm still trying to get exact numbers, it definitely is not shipping out as much inventory as we were getting of the ps4 and xb1 in their launch months.

Our Nintendo rep is extremely pleased with how the reception has been so far. Zelda sales remain almost a lock for consistency. 1 2 switch has sold okay, bomberman has sold okay.

Ps4 clearly outsold the Xbox this month as well. The sheer array of well received titles across different genres has really helped garner some great commentary this month, definitely a solid boost.

But it's not like the Xbox has stopped selling or anything. We've had good reception to various promos, and the 1s still is well received, it's just kind of coasting right now.
Click to expand...

Thanks as always Abdiel!

You can go back to Persona 5 now :p
 
S

Sangetsu-II

Member
Abdiel said:
Argh. I'm sorry guys. I've been busy with work, and then I've also devoted my free time to the deluge of games I've had lately so I haven't posted almost at all lately.

So since the switch launch... It's so sporadic. Whenever we get more in, it's gone in moments. You've all seen that thing where our site basically announced in advance it would have more to let people prepare.

The stock situation per store hasn't been great, as a result. I'm still trying to get exact numbers, it definitely is not shipping out as much inventory as we were getting of the ps4 and xb1 in their launch months.

Our Nintendo rep is extremely pleased with how the reception has been so far. Zelda sales remain almost a lock for consistency. 1 2 switch has sold okay, bomberman has sold okay.

Ps4 clearly outsold the Xbox this month as well. The sheer array of well received titles across different genres has really helped garner some great commentary this month, definitely a solid boost.

But it's not like the Xbox has stopped selling or anything. We've had good reception to various promos, and the 1s still is well received, it's just kind of coasting right now.
Click to expand...

That's what I wanted to hear, thanks Abdiel as always.

You da man!
 
B

BlackBuzzard

Banned
Abdiel said:
Argh. I'm sorry guys. I've been busy with work, and then I've also devoted my free time to the deluge of games I've had lately so I haven't posted almost at all lately.

So since the switch launch... It's so sporadic. Whenever we get more in, it's gone in moments. You've all seen that thing where our site basically announced in advance it would have more to let people prepare.

The stock situation per store hasn't been great, as a result. I'm still trying to get exact numbers, it definitely is not shipping out as much inventory as we were getting of the ps4 and xb1 in their launch months.

Our Nintendo rep is extremely pleased with how the reception has been so far. Zelda sales remain almost a lock for consistency. 1 2 switch has sold okay, bomberman has sold okay.

Ps4 clearly outsold the Xbox this month as well. The sheer array of well received titles across different genres has really helped garner some great commentary this month, definitely a solid boost.

But it's not like the Xbox has stopped selling or anything. We've had good reception to various promos, and the 1s still is well received, it's just kind of coasting right now.
Click to expand...

Yeah not surprising sticking with my Prediction.
 
Unknown?

Unknown?

Member
I think March is where the gap between PS4 and Xbox finally surpasses 2M. It was 1.75M January and February was estimated to have a 170k lead putting it anywhere from 1.85-1.9M.
 
M

Maxinas

Member
[NSW] 800K
[PS4] 375K
[XB1] 190K

Switch is doing better than anyone expected, and will have good momentum going forward (MK8D) until E3 hits and Nintendo reveals just how they intend to keep that momentum. Nothing special for the hardware itself, but on the software side, the PS4 is doing wonders, thus a typical PS4 month. Xbox fans have nothing special going for them right now, so a meh month overall.
 
M

MatPiscatella

Member
Just a reminder that I won't be posting the promised summary this month although I'll try to be available to answer questions if they come up. We'll get rolling with some of the requested improvements with the April data release (outside of the March release including the requested top 20 overall of course). Thanks for the patience.
 
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