They can survive til the end if they move the end closer
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Circana (NPD) February 2024: #1 Helldivers 2 #2 FF7 Rebirth #4 Skull and Bones #8 FF7 Twin Pack; PS5 #1 Units+Rev, Switch #2 Units Xbox #2 Rev
- Thread starter Thick Thighs Save Lives
- Start date
- Sales-Age
Unknown?
Member
Series is Wii 2010 style collapsing. Just suddenly stops although it isn't quite as bad because it was never popular like the Wii to begin with.
rhodesianshepard
Member
You could be right about GTA, especially if Sony gets marketing rights. But the biggest reason for the lag in console sales is COD, Madden, Fifa, Fortnite all being on last gen consoles still. Who knows when any of those games leave last gen behind
I doubt PS5 Pro will be nearly as big as PS4 Pro. It will probably sell for 600 at launch
MisterXDTV
Member
All it takes to market it is this headline:
"BEST PLACE TO PLAY GTA VI DAY 1"
It will sell by itself.....
Last edited:
kazuyamishima
Member
Madden 17 and Fifa 17 also released on PS3, heck, even fifa 18 released on PS3.
The reason that console sales lag behind previous gen is due to price, The PS4 Slim had a temporary price cut to $249 back in February 2017, the system sold about 398k for that month.
You could argue about inflation, but wages haven't increased proportionally.
Mr.Phoenix
Member
I guess I should just make a PSA:
PS5 will be down this month by around 40-50% compared to last year.
PS5 will be down this month by around 40-50% compared to last year.
HeWhoWalks
Gold Member
When Sony's sales start to "tank", we can come back to this. The brands are in nowhere near the same situation, especially when when is dominant around the world and the other mainly relied on two territories (territories it is now being soundly beaten in). This also ignores the context of last year and why that doesn't usually happen (on top of a price increase). It's starting the fire alarm for a lit match, my man.
Last edited:
SlimySnake
Flashless at the Golden Globes
Yep. We will see. I think a 36% drop in the month which launched FF7 Rebirth and Helldivers 2 which sold 8 million worldwide is tanking but hey if you want to wait until Sony starts porting games to Xbox thats fine with me. I did this with Xbox bros and time proved me right. I shall wait.
HeWhoWalks
Gold Member
I mean (and I intend this with all due respect because you're one of my favorite posters here), you can hold your breath for PlayStation games on Xbox, but I prefer to live in the real world where Sony won't port their games to a device (and brand) in major decline. Day-and-date PC with their single player stuff (especially on PS6)? Absolutely. I can see that. Xbox's situation was far easier to predict because nearly every avenue of defense had been compromised. I often see that "Sony will do X because Microsoft did Y" when history shows that, outside of moves that made sense (add motion controls at a time when said fad was big, adding PlayStation Plus because the foundation was already laid), they stick to their own plans which often work out.
It is simply far too premature to expect Sony to make any sort of drastic moves to put their games anywhere else other PC and mobile.
Last edited:
simpatico
Member
90 days ago ago, if someone said the second month of HELLDIVERS 2 sales would beat the FFVII launch, we would have laughed at you. Helldivers is a great surprise. Really happy they brought it to PC on day 1. I have a feeling it will still be played on Steam by a good sized group well after PS5 has been sunset.
rhodesianshepard
Member
Ff7 Rebirth had 1 day of the month, Gtfo with that. And HD2 was available on PC day 1
mayham2199
Member
I just don't even see the point of Sony releasing their games on Xbox. They don't even sell that well on PC most of the time. They'll do even worse on Xbox. Not sure it would even be worth it to Sony. I see them going to the Nintendo Switch 2 before I see them going to Xbox.
Now maybe if Sony was able to get MS to pay some massive amounts for the games to go to GP. Then I could maybe see it happening.
Last edited:
Im glad you brought up Tekken 8. Now I'd get behind this comparison rather than the Suicide Squad. Tekken 8 which was released on January 26th on multiple platforms managed to sell 2 million units worldwide in a month, which outpasses it's predecessor that sold 2 million in 2 month. That's a success in my books.
Tekken 8 sales outpace predecessor
Tekken 8 has crossed 2m copies sold within its first month.The latest instalment to the fighting series released on 25t…www.eurogamer.net
And for all we know and I'm speculating , FF Rebirth maybe close behind it by a small margin in the year to date charts with just 3 days of sales, on a single platform. Now that is a comperson you could have made but rather chose Suicide Squad to paint a dull picture of Ff7 Rebirth.
At best, Rebirth’s sold nearly as good as Tekken 8 so far. At worst, it’s sold marginally better than the severely underperforming Suicide Squad. We don’t know where it stands. Ideally we’ve always looked at the game the higher ranked game beat as a ‘worst case’ baseline for sales expectation.
If I were arguing in ‘bad faith’ you’d have holes to pick in my logic vs the pointless ad-hominem, but here we are.
FIREKNIGHT2029
Member
Sony is never going to port their games to other competing consoles like Xbox, that narrative needs to die. I don’t know where the fuck it’s coming from lol. Just because Xbox is dying and having its games go to other systems doesn’t mean Sony is going to follow MS. Playstation is very dominant and is a very healthy platform unlike Xbox.
Last edited:
The Last One
Member
What the hell are you talking about? Helldivers went out in February just like VIIR.
It’s not the game’s second month. This is the first NPD for Helldivers 2. The difference being that Helldivers was out on the 8th and VII Rebirth was out on the 29th.
simpatico
Member
Well I guess I should have googled that lol. Don't know why I thought early Jan. I think the point stands even as "Helldivers release month". Unexpected hit and I think it will have legs.
Last edited:
Neofire
Member
Been trying, damn scalpers are a plague.
You messed up the release date, but it would certainly still be true if Helldivers was released at the end of January. Their first week had the lowest sales, it started picking up afterwards. Even if Rebirth was released early February, Helldivers 2 would have still easily beaten it.
Mr.Phoenix
Member
I have tried explaining this to you already.
That the PS5 did 410k in February, is not just good, but above expectations from what is the norm. In fact, I believe the only reason it did that much in February is thanks to Hell Divers and FF7. Because it should have done around half that... or at most 300k.
560k? (feb 2023) is not normal. 600k March 2023) is not normal. No PS console has ever done those kinda numbers in non-holiday (Sept -Dec) months. So this prediction you are making now, is just a flawed one. A fruit from the poisoned tree scenario.
When this months sales data is released and you see another 40-50% drop, are you going to come and say I told you so? Or are you going to realize that this is always what was supposed to happen? PS5 sales last year were abnormal, and Sony stupidly adjusted expected shipments to 25M (which they have now revised down to 22M) not fully understanding that the PS5 sales spike was primarily due to them finally having units to meet that demand that accumulated from 2021 through to 2022.
Furthermore, you are talking about a "game which sold 8M" and not acknowledging that the PS5, has as of Jan/Feb 2024, sold around 55M consoles. That means you are past the point where a very good-selling game results in a significant spike in console sales. Sony most likely ends 2024 having sold just over 70M. And by 2025 they should be at around 87M/90M. That is right in line or even ahead of PS4 sales. If sales continue as they were last year, they would have been hitting 90M by March/April next year... which is again, unnatural.
Oh... sony will never port games to Xbox. Or at least not anything that is not called The show. Unlike for Xbox, it just doesn't make any kinda business or financial sense.
Neofire
Member
Going to give a few more months and then if the ps5 sales continue to decline yeah I'm definitely coming with a i told ya so and start drawing correlations between Sonys recent shift in "priorities". I've heard from so many people that they would sell there's/not buy one if everything just comes to PC.
HeWhoWalks
Gold Member
On one hand, people said they weren't releasing enough exclusives. Now, the exclusives are "hurting" them. Which is it exactly?
Did you have this same sentiment in the EU thread where they were less than 3% down for the month?
Last edited:
MisterXDTV
Member
I think you are being intentionally dense at this point.....
The percentage drop means nothing without context: February 2023 was one of the greatest months in the 30-year Playstation history BECAUSE IT WAS COMING OFF AN HISTORICAL SHORTAGE of supply
But keep trolling... I know you will say the same thing for March when the same shit happens
Keep reading Pascatella's useless percentages instead of real numbers:
PS5: 410K
NSW: 220K
XBS: 195K
Playstation is tanking....
Last edited:
Mr.Phoenix
Member
I know you wont do it, and I am not going to do it for you either... but try this... this is the 4th year of the PS5 right?
How about you go and look at monthly sales of the PS4 in its 4th year? That ought to give you some perspective of what you really should be comparing the PS5 sales to. Because I can just tell you this now... with the exception to like 2 or so months this year, and maybe the holiday months depending on if Sony does what I think they would do, the PS5 will be down EVERY SINGLE MONTH compared to last year.
And that has absolutely nothing to do with them releasing games on PC two+ years later, or releasing their GAAS title(s) day and date on the PC.
You will probably also find that while down compared to last year, it would still be up compared to the PS4 in its fourth year. And mind you, by then the PS4 cost $300.
Neofire
Member
I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you do not understand what I wrote. I'll give a brief synopsis......I insinuated that the sales on the ps5 are declining because of their exclusives going to PC. People say alot of things I'm waiting on the data. Could I be wrong? Of course but seeing how the first quarter of this year is loaded with all types of heavy hitters for ps5, Helldivers 2, ff7 rebirth, rise of the ronin, stellar blade. The 1st quarter for last year had a much weaker lineup and this year its down at least 19%? Something isn't adding up.
HeWhoWalks
Gold Member
What isn't adding up is the omission of context.
- 19% of what? Percentages are nothing without a figure to work with.
- What else happened last year that had PS5 up so much? I won't do that research for you either.
- Okay, so sales are declining because of the PC, right? What about the console being in its 4th year? Shouldn't that have something to do with it? Why now are sales suddenly declining when PlayStation exclusives games have been regularly coming to PC since 2019?
Benefit of the doubt? I'll give you that and assume you missed all of the key points above, because without them, you are firing shots in the dark.
Last edited:
thismeinteil
Member
Oh no, all they have to do is come out with another pointless piece of HW that performs better than the Pro, but gets trounced by the PS6, and they'll be right as rain. - mentally ill fanboy, probably
UchihaMadara
Neo Member
According to SlimySnake exclusives like Helldivers 2 were supposed to propel PS5 beyond what Hogwarts Legacy did last year and yet monster exclusives like Palword did nothing for Xbox. Why is that?
And are we really getting worried about PS5 future considering that PS pro and GTA 6 are coming soon. Really?
PS5 will be at 70 million before PS5 Pro(which is gonna sell additional 15-20 milllions) and GTA 6 is gonna take it over 100 million easily.
And are we really getting worried about PS5 future considering that PS pro and GTA 6 are coming soon. Really?
PS5 will be at 70 million before PS5 Pro(which is gonna sell additional 15-20 milllions) and GTA 6 is gonna take it over 100 million easily.
Last edited:
James Sawyer Ford
Member
Not to mention ps5 got a stealth price increase
It’s just slimey being slimey. He gets off to doom porn
Neofire
Member
I'm not going to do the research for you either on the "minimum of 19%" either. Just because you choose to ignore it since it doesn't fit your narrative is on you. The 1 or two exclusives back in 2019 that came out almost 3 years after their release isn't a equivalent comparison to 4 or 5 exclusives in one years span and day and date currently.What isn't adding up is the omission of context.
- 19% of what? Percentages are nothing without a figure to work with.
- What else happened last year that had PS5 up so much? I won't do that research for you either.
- Okay, so sales are declining because of the PC, right? What about the console being in its 4th year? Shouldn't that have something to do with it? Why now are sales suddenly declining when PlayStation exclusives games have been regularly coming to PC since 2019?
Benefit of the doubt? I'll give you that and assume you missed all of the key points above, because without them, you are firing shots in the dark.
Like I stated because I will look at the data again in 2 or 3 months.
ChorizoPicozo
Member
is a very PC ass game
HeWhoWalks
Gold Member
My man, the narrative came from you. I questioned it and you have no answer for it (as is often the case with shots in the dark). If putting games on PC is hurting their bottom line, the only way to back that up is with the data to support it. You can be pedantic with the 2019 stuff, but that doesn't negate what I said. They've been putting their games on PC for the past few years, and yet, PS5 sales haven't taken any substantial hits vs PS4 (and this is considering a higher price point and crippling global pandemic).
Thus, if the data isn't strong enough to make a case, then there is no case.
UchihaMadara
And this is often what happens with PlayStation. Makes no sense, but here we are. There is this pointless need to "worry" as if Sony doesn't know how to run its business (or that somehow, an Xbox move means Sony should be concerned).
Remember this? Or this? Or this?
Yeah.
Last edited:
UchihaMadara
Neo Member
Remember guys when Uncharted 4 released and PS4 only sold like 200k in a month? But selling double that apparently means Playstation is tanking
Last edited:
SlimySnake
Flashless at the Golden Globes
lol I literally said lets wait and see and you guys cant even let me have that.
You make some very good points, but also ignored several points I made. Like i said earlier, I was not aware or rather did not remember Sony had a record Feb last year. But I did provide you guys reasons why I believe what I believe. Someone said that as a graphics whore i should welcome the extra profits that sony will surely invest back into graphics heavy games. I pointed out that didnt happen with Spiderman 2. If anything the opposite happened and sony rushed it out like activision, ea and ubisoft do.
Now with this xbox thing, I am simply connecting the dots because the same thing happened with Xbox. I also dont think Sony will port games to Xbox, but I am looking at markers and a lot of the things I saw with Xbox are lining up. Regardless, I am not even saying you are wrong. I am simply saying to wait and see.
I have been right about so many things over the past few years that I feel like I have earned the right to get a little leeway here. Year after year, month after month ive argued with you lot over these things and time has proven me right.
- I was right about Horizon opening the door to other PC ports. Now sony has ported just about everything they've released in the last 7 years on PC.
- I was right about Day one releases.
- I was right about there being no next gen games from sony first party between ratchet and spiderman 2. a span of 2.5 years.
- I was right about sony first party straight up skipping 2024.
- I was right about sales taking a hit as they port more and more games to PC.
I have a good track record here lol. I took so much shit from people like James and virtually every single sony fan here over every single one of those things. People couldnt comprehend sony would ever port anything other than horizon. let alone day one, gaas or not. let alone skip entire years without a major first party game. No one would believe it and gave me shit every time i tried to state its a possibility given the markers i had seen. Sony skipping E3s, Herman following Phil's playbook, etc.
Just let me wait and see. Im not trying to change minds here.
HeWhoWalks
Gold Member
Fair enough, but that was a big part of your reply to me above. You suggested the exact opposite.
For what you're saying to give you another feather for your cap, Sony has to make a drastic move that is outside of their current plans (PC and mobile), which also means they have to be starting to lose something in a big enough way to warrant such a move. None of the numbers present in here suggest anything like that. Wait and see is cool, but, like I said, what happened with Xbox was easy to spot from a mile away. They started last gen with such a losing strat that it was obvious they were in trouble. The One eventually helped turned some things around, but the major damage was done. The Series consoles simply finished them off.
So, "tanking" is not a word I would use for PlayStation.
Last edited:
kazuyamishima
Member
I fail to see how these numbers are bad for the PS5 and how users are getting a PC instead.
As a comparison, the PS4 was $249 for 2 weeks in February 2017 and it sold 387k for the month.
The twist is getting more bizarre each time.
As a comparison, the PS4 was $249 for 2 weeks in February 2017 and it sold 387k for the month.
The twist is getting more bizarre each time.
Last edited:
Quite frankly you're simply making a crusade because you have not accepted the reality that Sony wants to expand their business to PC and possibly mobile.
But objectively they are doing it in a really controlled and intelligent way though, single player games won't be day one on PC, GaaS and online titles whose success relies on big communities yes.
This has been known for a few years at this point.
Also sales taking a hit because of more PC ports is just a lie.
As others have explained, sales had no chance not to be down over an unprecedented growth period last year due to very specific circumstances (end of a two years shortage period).
Or better to sustain growth at that rate the console would have needed a price cut to 299/399$ which would have been absolutely reasonable in previous generations after 4 years but this can't happen this gen due to electronics costs rising.
This is what you should be really concerned about, the inability to cut the price of the system substantially might prevent the PS5 from reaching a truly mass market audience which will limit the lifetime installed base while at the same time development costs are rising and games need to sell more and not less to recoup costs.
Anyway it's kinda absurd that we're discussing about Sony struggling when they're dominating the market and outselling the competition 2:1 and their exclusives are dominating the charts.
ChorizoPicozo
Member
tanking the competition that is.
Goalus
Member
SlimySnake
Flashless at the Golden Globes
I would say i accepted the reality way back in 2019 when horizon PC was first announced. I laid out that this is where this was going to go while everyone else didnt accept it and called me chicken little. Turns out the sky did fall and chicken little was the only one who saw it coming.
Whether or not this costs sony remains to be seen. i think this months sales despite HD2 and FF7 is a marker. Sony themselves downgraded their sales estimates of selling 25 million so thats another marker. The 900 person layoffs to cut costs is another marker. You disagree. Thats fine. We shall see.
Lastly, I agree that the high price of the system is a big hurdle but i have no idea why the console business which has traditionally relied upon selling for a loss to get more and more consoles into the homes is now all of a sudden attempting to make profits off of each console sold. Sony is being idiotic by looking at short term quarterly profits like other third party manufacturers and Microsoft instead of looking at the bigger picture... i.e., stronger playerbase = greater money raised from royalties, digital transactions, ps+ subs etc. Console too expensive? Tough luck. Sell for a loss like you did in the PS1-PS2 era you dominated.
Last edited:
James Sawyer Ford
Member
Sony's PC strategy was WELL TELEGRAPHED. You were not right at all, unless you predicted before it happened. It makes no sense to start releasing one PC game and then not do others.
Again - what were you right about? The only Day 1 release we have is a GaaS title, something Sony also telegraphed well in advanced. Outside of that - we have over two year old Horizon: FW that just released on PC and Sony has stated that console games will get priority for non-GAAS games. That strategy doesn't seem to be changing at all. If they start releasing Day 1 AAA Sony console SP games, then maybe you'll be right. So far, you're wrong.
Again - how were you right? Everyone knew the first few years would be completely cross-gen, including many Sony properties. This isn't news. You of course complained about it, meanwhile I was the one that really didn't give a shit - HFW is still one of the best looking "next gen games" and it's completely cross-gen. The designation is entirely irrelevant but you managed to continually get overly upset about it.
Again, this is not hard to predict. I predicted this just based on the studios they had and the state of their projects. I thought DS2 might make it based on timing, but it's 2025 instead.
What were you right about here? Which sales were taking a hit, and how do we quantify that from a launch aligned standpoint? How was it the result of releasing on PC vs numerous other factors?
Not really. You have a track record of complaining about what's already obvious to everyone else, only everyone else doesn't see it as an issue.
If you read the financial reports Sony is still selling the console at a loss while the price is still at around launch price after 4 years.
Inflation and other macro economic issues are raising costs at a rate higher than what they can do to lower them by redesigning the system every year (ex. the 6nm chip, the Slim). Hence the unprecedented price increases on hardware.
Their profits margins are shrinking, so it's not them being greedy or stupid, they simply cannot afford further price cuts or they risk the business to become not profitable and that's obviously out of question.
You're being unreasonable and you're mistaking the causes with the effects.
Development costs are rising, the console market is not growing and with the inability to reach mass market prices it will be actually a challenge to not make it shrink. If PS5 is forced to stay at around 500$ for the rest of the lifecycle even with all the sucess, surpassing a 100m LTD installed base will become a challenge.
All these factors required a course correction and that's the expansion to PC/mobile + GaaS.
It's time to accept that. They're doing it in a very controlled and smart way.
This is clearly not Microsoft.
So far they're having a decent success, actually Helldivers2 is a great accomplishment.
ChorizoPicozo
Member
not really. Sony projected a decline.
CityHunter1981
Member
And some people still doubt that Microsoft wants also to bring their big games to other consoles.
rhodesianshepard
Member
Nobody really doubts that long term. The writings on the wall. I think the nail in the coffin will be COD finally releasing on Gamepass Day 1 this year and it doesn't dramatically change console sales. That is the last pin to drop for execs to get the green light for more multiplatform releases. The lack of Gamepass growth will just slowly bleed Microsoft dry if they don't
The gap widens in the US and Japan.
However, The PS5 is 5 million units behind PS4 sales in Europe due to the shortage of available consoles during the pandemic.
At this point, the PS5 is ahead of the PS2
PS5 54.8 m
PS2 51.2 m
PS5 would have obliterated the PS4.
(Nov 2022 - Apr 2024)
(Nov 2015 - Apr 2017)
PlayStation is more dominant than ever
Feb 2024
#1 PS5
#1 Helldivers 2
#1 PS Portal
Sadly, Jim Ryan, probably Sony Group's top-performing CEO in four decades, will retire next week.
Which means that "the accountants" could run wild and kill all PS5 momentum.
The "accountants"
Yeah.
Their profit margins are fine. Successful asset-light strategies will usually have low margins, but high capital turns and ROIC:
Since 1994 6.1%
FY23 6.4%
Sacrificing long-term performance for short-term profits would be catastrophic (Walkman, Trinitron), but C-Suite compensation is tied directly to Sony's stock price and EPS.
The elephant in the room: The "accountants" have wasted $18 billion on buybacks, dividends, Music and Pictures. Their poor strategic decisions about capital allocation had a detrimental effect on Sony Group's ability to generate sufficient cash flows.
The "accountants" are projecting their own flaws onto others (G&NS)
Last edited: