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Another take on PC game piracy (ridiculously high piracy rate inside)

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=17350

“It looks like around 92% of the people playing the full version of [the pictured] Ricochet Infinity pirated it.” It’s moments like those that make people in the industry stop dead in their tracks. 92% is a huge number and though we were only measuring people who had gotten the game from Reflexive and gone online with it, it seemed improbable that those who acquired the game elsewhere or didn’t go online were any more likely to have purchased it. As we sat and pondered the financial implications of such piracy, it was hard to get past the magnitude of the number itself: 92%.

The article goes to describe how they tried to combat it and how it affected sales:

Below are the results of Reflexive.com sales and downloads immediately following each update:

Fix 1 – Existing Exploits & Keygens made obsolete – Sales up 70%, Downloads down 33%

Fix 2 – Existing Keygens made obsolete – Sales down slightly, Downloads flat

Fix 3 – Existing Cracks made obsolete – Sales flat, Downloads flat

Fix 4 – Keygens made game-specific – Sales up 13%, Downloads down 16% (note: fix made after the release of Ricochet Infinity)

From the results above, it seems clear that eliminating piracy through a stronger DRM can result in significantly increased sales – but sometimes it can have no benefit at all. So what does that mean for the question about whether a pirated copy means a lost sale? The decreases in downloads may provide a clue to that

As we believe that we are decreasing the number of pirates downloading the game with our DRM fixes, combining the increased sales number together with the decreased downloads, we find 1 additional sale for every 1,000 less pirated downloads. Put another way, for every 1,000 pirated copies we eliminated, we created 1 additional sale.
 

Durante

Member
Put another way, for every 1,000 pirated copies we eliminated, we created 1 additional sale.
That's the important part. In other words, the vast majority of pirated copies are not lost sales.
 

RJT

Member
Put another way, for every 1,000 pirated copies we eliminated, we created 1 additional sale.
That was I first time I've seen someone trying to guess that number. Seems plausible...
 

Borys

Banned
dLMN8R:

You are a disgrace to real PC gamers, shut the fuck up.

As for this article... nothing we can do but weep. Stealing and getting away with it is way too easy nowadays.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
I would assume that the general ratio is something like this:
- Indie/download-only titles: 75%+
- B-grade commercial titles: 60%-75%
- A-grade commercial titles: 40%-60%
- Primarily online commercial titles that can't be pirated with use of online: 10%-20%
- Titles that can't be played pirated whatsoever (WoW, etc): 0%
 

Draft

Member
Should of put it on Steam. Near as I can tell these are all casual games where you download the full version, and if you register, you get a key emailed. No shit it's pirated out of the ass.
 

Tieno

Member
Durante said:
That's the important part. In other words, the vast majority of pirated copies are not lost sales.
That's too easy. There can just as well be a displacement effect, where people go pirate other games.
 

regs

Member
I'll pirate a game if it's loaded with DRM, or usually I'll loose a cdkey or something and just end up redownloading it.

Example: I have oblivion for PC but the disc got damaged somehow, so I pirated it.

This is why I LOVE steam, I buy the game I have it forever. I reformat, or loose a key, it doesn't matter
 
Durante said:
That's the important part. In other words, the vast majority of pirated copies are not lost sales.

Pirates redeemed? Seems so.

Who's to say that these people wouldn't have tried the game out if they knew there was no avenue at all for getting it free?
 

Evander

"industry expert"
Durante said:
That's the important part. In other words, the vast majority of pirated copies are not lost sales.

Yup.

Of course, that doesn't mean that they shouldn't get rid of those 1000 pirates, if it'll mean an extra sale.

just that they shouldn't waste their effort on the tactics which DON'T increase sales
 

saelz8

Member
I think we'll start seeing more games like this integrated in browser services, like InstantAction. I'm not sure exactly how it works, but I imagine it'll make it harder than just straight serial downloads.

It would probably cost more to set up such a service though.
 
DeathWasHere said:
Please don't pirate Mass Effect when it comes on to PC.
People will. I'm sure it'll get dumped a couple weeks before it's release after it's "Gone Gold" announcement. I'm sure Razor 1911 group will claim credit. I'm sure people on here will give it praise. I'm sure people will buy the game. I'm sure it will sell over a million copies. I'm sure we'll see the sequel on the PC.

PC piracy has gotten to the point where I don't think there really is anything the PC industry can do to slow it. SecureROM tried--- and failed. I don't think there is any one solution to stop it aside from maybe lowering cost of the product but even that is a slippery slope.

I'll maybe consider picking it up on the PC depending on specs and framerate vs. the 360 version.
 

navanman

Crown Prince of Custom Firmware
regs said:
I'll pirate a game if it's loaded with DRM, or usually I'll loose a cdkey or something and just end up redownloading it.

Example: I have oblivion for PC but the disc got damaged somehow, so I pirated it.

This is why I LOVE steam, I buy the game I have it forever. I reformat, or loose a key, it doesn't matter

Oblivion doesn't have any DRM or keygen. I hope that was an example not what you did.
 

regs

Member
navanman said:
Oblivion doesn't have any DRM or keygen. I hope that was an example not what you did.

reread
regs said:
I'll pirate a game if it's loaded with DRM, or usually I'll loose a cdkey or something and just end up redownloading it.

Example: I have oblivion for PC but the disc got damaged somehow, so I pirated it.

This is why I LOVE steam, I buy the game I have it forever. I reformat, or loose a key, it doesn't matter
 

sk3tch

Member
Borys said:
dLMN8R:

You are a disgrace to real PC gamers, shut the fuck up.

As for this article... nothing we can do but weep. Stealing and getting away with it is way too easy nowadays.

Why the attack? He does have a point. I've been on their site for 5 minutes and I can't find how much the damn game costs. I'm guessing you need to install, play it, and then get prompted to pay?
 

Davedough

Member
What's wrong with more companies just going to a Steam setup or have all of your authentication go through a server. If your computer does not authenticate through their server, you dont play. Plain and simple. I dont pretend to be a guru on protection schemes, so please inform me of the flaws in this way of thinking. I'd like to educate myself.
 

regs

Member
Davedough said:
What's wrong with more companies just going to a Steam setup or have all of your authentication go through a server. If your computer does not authenticate through their server, you dont play. Plain and simple. I dont pretend to be a guru on protection schemes, so please inform me of the flaws in this way of thinking. I'd like to educate myself.

you dont have an internet connection?
 

syllogism

Member
Never heard of this game and I'm somewhat surprised people even bother to pirate it. I would wager the few torrents out there get more hits than their homepage.
 
Put another way, for every 1,000 pirated copies we eliminated, we created 1 additional sale.

unfortunately pirates will just use this to advocate their argument that it's not really stealing cause they wouldn't have bought it anyway.
 

M3wThr33

Banned
Jenga said:
Ricochet Infinity? Never heard of it.
It's a sponsored game that they pandered to a lot of other websites to brand and sell as their own.

But regardless of the quality of the game, 92% saw fit to crack and play it ANYWAY.
 

larvi

Member
I would like to see numbers on how much extra the DRM coding/support costs them vs how much extra they gained in sales by putting it in. I would bet it's not that much of a return if anything at all.
 

B!TCH

how are you, B!TCH? How is your day going, B!ITCH?
92%. That's a global figure and not just a specific market, correct?
 

Durante

Member
I AM JOHN! said:
I'm sorry, but that's utter bullshit.
Math wasn't your favourite subject I take it?

And I hope GAF is able to distinguish "interpreting the data correctly" from "advocating piracy".
 

Danj

Member
These figures can't in any way be taken as definitive over the whole industry. At best it can be said to relate to shareware games that use an unlock key system. Games whose demo version cannot be unlocked to a full version are unlikely to have such a high level of piracy IMO.
 

Finguo

Member
regs said:
you dont have an internet connection?

Well, this game is distributed online only, no? So an internet connection is a must to get that game in the first place.

But besides that, I too have always wondered how these keygens work. I mean, wouldn´t it be possible to generate an unique key for every game sold and ban everyone who doesn´t have an official key. How do these hackers get hold of these "valid" keys for their keygens? I fear, I am too uneducated to understand...
 

regs

Member
Finguo said:
Well, this game is distributed online only, no? So an internet connection is a must to get that game in the first place.

But besides that, I too have always wondered how these keygens work. I mean, wouldn´t it be possible to generate an unique key for every game sold and ban everyone who doesn´t have an official key. How do these hackers get hold of these "valid" keys for their keygens? I fear, I am too uneducated to understand...

keys are almost always a mathematical algorithm
 
Wth is Ricochet Infinity and why is it important to piracy statistics?


Chances of a sucky game having an higher piracy rate - 90%
 

dionysus

Yaldog
Even if I accept the argument that piracy doesn't hurt sales, it is still wrong. Right and wrong are the only issues.
 
Durante said:
That's the important part. In other words, the vast majority of pirated copies are not lost sales.

Yep.

I'm not advocating piracy. I just think it's ridiculous that publishers and even developers seem to think they're losing billions of dollars off of pirated copies. Nevermind the fact that these pirates probably wouldn't pay for your game in the first place. And so, these developers overreact by placing Draconian DRM in place that actually turns away their legitimate customers.

Piracy is bad and wrong. However, the backlash of overextending DRM practices is simply hurting your true customers, those who actually want to pay for your product. The lesson to be learned here is that sensible, non-intrusive DRM is far more important than the end-all, be-all piracy protection that ends up hurting your bottom line more than helping it.

I'm glad that we kind of have some real perspective on the issue of how piracy affects sales.

I AM JOHN! said:
I'm sorry, but that's utter bullshit.

Your argument is so eloquent and well-thought-out. I'm sure you have the inside track at this developer and have done the appropriate research. Where's the link to your article?

dionysus said:
Even if I accept the argument that piracy doesn't hurt sales, it is still wrong. Right and wrong are the only issues.

Of course, piracy is still wrong. And illegal. This article doesn't change that fact.

What the article DOES do, though, is put into perspective just how many lost sales result from piracy. It proves that, while DRM is useful for keeping honest people honest, hinging all yours bets on greatly increasing sales by having really invasive DRM just doesn't work. It's better to have user-friendly DRM for your paying customers than having everything nailed down.

Remember, this is an article posted on a developer website, and therefore is for developers.
 
Put another way, for every 1,000 pirated copies we eliminated, we created 1 additional sale.

I love this statement, I really do. I love to throw this in the face of people who whine about illegal scans of magazines, or ripped mp3s, or whatever - the people who get them MAJORITY of the time WERE NEVER GOING TO PAY FOR YOUR STINKING PRODUCT ANYWAY. Doesn't change the fact it is illegal, but the whole argument that it hurts sales so badly is really weak. If everyone who got the illegal copy paid, yea, you'd make a ton of money, and companies always factor these "pirated" versions automatically into "lost sales'. It wasn't going to be a sale, sheesh. Lost sales should only be people who WOULD have bought it but got the illegal copy.
 
TSA said:
I love this statement, I really do. I love to throw this in the face of people who whine about illegal scans of magazines, or ripped mp3s, or whatever - the people who get them MAJORITY of the time WERE NEVER GOING TO PAY FOR YOUR STINKING PRODUCT ANYWAY. Doesn't change the fact it is illegal, but the whole argument that it hurts sales so badly is really weak. If everyone who got the illegal copy paid, yea, you'd make a ton of money, and companies always factor these "pirated" versions automatically into "lost sales'. It wasn't going to be a sale, sheesh. Lost sales should only be people who WOULD have bought it but got the illegal copy.

Right. I think the point, as I said above, is that DRM should really only be used to keep honest people honest. And to that end, you need to make sure they also remain your paying customers by not annoying them.

I would say that DRM itself may be a deterrent for many people, as we're currently seeing with the music industry increasingly dropping it. The fact of the matter is, worry about your paying customers, and tackle the pirates some other way.
 
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