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(Hardware) Official February NPD Prediction Thread - closes Friday Mar 7

D

donny2112

Member
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 4 p.m. EST on Friday, March 7th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

Format:

[360]
[NDS]
[PS2]
[PS3]
[PSP]
[WII]

Examples:

Code: 
Good              Bad
[PS2] 123K        [PS2] 123.5K
[PS2] 123,000     [PS2] 123.000
[PS2] 123000      [PS2] - 123000
[PS2] 123456      [PS2] one-hundred and twenty-three thousand

The Official Software Prediction thread is here. Post your guesses for DMC4 PS3/360 and Turok PS3/360 among others!


NPD Release: March 13th @ 4:00 p.m. EST (thread posted around 6:30 p.m. EST)
NPD Coverage: February 3 - March 1 (4 weeks, January was 4 weeks)


January 2008 Results (4-week month) - thanks to NPD and VideoMan for the Jan 2008 thread

VideoMan said:
Hardware:

Nintendo Wii -- 274k
PlayStation 3 - 269k
PlayStation 2 - 264k
Nintendo DS -- 251k
Sony PSP ----- 230k
Xbox 360 ----- 230k


Top 10 software:

360 CALL OF DUTY 4: MODERN WARFARE ACTIVISION (CORP) NOV 2007 MATURE (M) 1 330.9K

WII PLAY W/ REMOTE NINTENDO OF AMERICA FEB 2007 EVERYONE (E) 2 298.1K

WII GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK W/ WIREACTIVISION (CORP) OCT 2007 TEEN (T) 3 239.6K

360 ROCK BAND SPECIAL ED BUNDLE MTV GAMES/ELECTRONIC ARTS NOV 2007 TEEN (T) 4 183.8K

360 GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK W/ WIREACTIVISION (CORP) OCT 2007 TEEN (T) 5 182.7K

WII SUPER MARIO GALAXY NINTENDO OF AMERICA NOV 2007 EVERYONE (E) 6 172K

360 BURNOUT PARADISE ELECTRONIC ARTS JAN 2008 EVERYONE 10+ (E10+) 7 144.1K

PS3 CALL OF DUTY 4: MODERN WARFARE ACTIVISION (CORP) NOV 2007 MATURE (M) 8 140K

NDS MARIO PARTY NINTENDO OF AMERICA NOV 2007 EVERYONE (E) 9 138.5K

NDS MARIO AND SONIC: OLYMPIC GAMES SEGA OF AMERICA JAN 2008 EVERYONE (E) 10 133K
Click to expand...


Potentially significant releases from February 3 - March 1

360 - Devil May Cry 4 (2/5), Turok (2/5), Lost Odyssey (2/12)
NDS - HW: Blue/Black DS Lite (2/10), Professor Layton (2/11), Apollo Justice (2/19)
PS2 - Twisted Metal: Head-On (2/5)
PS3 - Devil May Cry 4 (2/5), Turok (2/5), Lost Planet (2/26)
PSP - Wipeout Pulse (2/12)
WII - Dragon Quest: Swords (2/19)
 
I bought an NDS this month. I'm part of the problem! :)

[360] 200k
[NDS] 225k
[PS2] 200k
[PS3] 250k
[PSP] 180k
[WII] 265k
 
Luckyman said:
DS - 485,000
Wii - 335,000
PS2 - 295,000
360 - 228,000
PSP - 176,000
GBA - 136,000
PS3 - 127,000

Triple should double that.
Click to expand...

Thanks

[wii] 315k
[ps2]220k
[360]255k
[psp]180k
[ps3]260k
[ds] 295k
 
Mojovonio said:
Is the 360 stock still short?
Click to expand...
There's been anecdotal reports on various message boards that stores started to get new shipments of Premiums in the middle of February.

It'll make the February NPD even more interesting, at least.
 
So why is everyone posting their PS3 numbers above 360.

I agree, but its surprising to see such unison.

Personally, I see Sony being a lot more competitive, as of late. They're broken the Price barrier and the no games barrier.

The 360 still has the stigma of shoddy hardware.
 
Mojovonio said:
Is the 360 stock still short?
Click to expand...

For the first 2 weeks at least and some stores are still showing as out of stock today. It's going to affect the numbers, but it's hard to say how much. In January, there was good stock for the first week or so at retailers for the 360, but it quickly ran out and wasn't being supplied well enough to meet demand. However, there have been regular (but small) shipments for all of this year.
 
[360] 190K
[NDS] 320K
[PS2] 250K
[PS3] 245K
[PSP] 240K
[WII] 250K

Mojovonio said:
The 360 still has the stigma of shoddy hardware.
Click to expand...

Its main problem is MS can't get it in stores this year.
 
Dama said:
How do you guys think of those numbers? Random or do you have some info that I don't have.
Click to expand...
Look at last month's performance, and industry trends. I look at historical sales levels as well.

Also, guess.
 
Mojovonio said:
Is the 360 stock still short?
Click to expand...

Yes, for the first 3 weeks. This last week it was restocked at most retailers. I see the PS3 outselling the 360 again this month due to this.
 
GhaleonEB said:
Look at last month's performance, and industry trends. I look at historical sales levels as well.

Also, guess.
Click to expand...

I do the first, estimate the second, ignore the third, and open a whole can of the fourth. This is my first try, so I might as well have fun with it.
 
sonycowboy said:
For the first 2 weeks at least and some stores are still showing as out of stock today. It's going to affect the numbers, but it's hard to say how much. In January, there was good stock for the first week or so at retailers for the 360, but it quickly ran out and wasn't being supplied well enough to meet demand. However, there have been regular (but small) shipments for all of this year.
Click to expand...

I don't buy it. Maybe the PS3 boost will be a little be larger than if the 360 was well stocked, but by strictly personal accounts, no one seems interested in the 360 anymore.

Everyone I've talked to picked up a PS3 because its $50 more than the 360, has BR included and is know for great reliability.

Frankly, for, them, there's no reason to buy a 360.

I think that sentiment may influence the sales this month.

But we'll see.
 
Mojovonio said:
I don't buy it. Maybe the PS3 boost will be a little be larger than if the 360 was well stocked, but by strictly personal accounts, no one seems interested in the 360 anymore.

Everyone I've talked to picked up a PS3 because its $50 more than the 360, has BR included and is know for great reliability.

Frankly, for, them, there's no reason to buy a 360.

I think that sentiment may influence the sales this month.

But we'll see.
Click to expand...
WHy do you have to shit up every single thread?
 
Mojovonio said:
I don't buy it. Maybe the PS3 boost will be a little be larger than if the 360 was well stocked, but by strictly personal accounts, no one seems interested in the 360 anymore.
Everyone I've talked to picked up a PS3 because its $50 more than the 360, has BR included and is know for great reliability.

Frankly, for, them, there's no reason to buy a 360.

I think that sentiment may influence the sales this month.

But we'll see.
Click to expand...


Okay, I know I'm just a junior, but I really need your help to understand this way of thinking. In December, the 360 outsold the PS3 by 500k units in the U.S. Last month, the PS3 outsold the 360 by 30k units. Now, I'm a reasonable guy. I fully accept that the PS3 might very well outsell the 360 for the rest of the year (although that's still unlikely). However, the part of your post that I bolded just does not make any logical sense.

Maybe it's because I'm a psychologist and therefore obessesed with quantitative data, but I cannot believe that "no one seems interested in the 360 anymore." 1.3 million people bought a new 360 in December. 230k people bought a 360 in January. Do you actually believe that January's sales have completely erased the gargantuan december that the 360 had? Is one month really enough to say that a new trend has begun and interest in the 360 has completely died?

Just so you know, these are real questions. I really am interested to know where this belief comes from and what is the logic upon which it is based.

That being said, here's my prediction:

[360] 225k
[NDS] 305k
[PS2] 230k
[PS3] 252k
[PSP] 222k
[WII] 311k
 
GPsych said:
Okay, I know I'm just a junior, but I really need your help to understand this way of thinking. In December, the 360 outsold the PS3 by 500k units in the U.S. Last month, the PS3 outsold the 360 by 30k units. Now, I'm a reasonable guy. I fully accept that the PS3 might very well outsell the 360 for the rest of the year (although that's still unlikely). However, the part of your post that I bolded just does not make any logical sense.

Maybe it's because I'm a psychologist and therefore obessesed with quantitative data, but I cannot believe that "no one seems interested in the 360 anymore." 1.3 million people bought a new 360 in December. 230k people bought a 360 in January. Do you actually believe that January's sales have completely erased the gargantuan december that the 360 had? Is one month really enough to say that a new trend has begun and interest in the 360 has completely died?

Just so you know, these are real questions. I really am interested to know where this belief comes from and what is the logic upon which it is based.

That being said, here's my prediction:

[360] 225k
[NDS] 305k
[PS2] 230k
[PS3] 252k
[PSP] 222k
[WII] 311k
Click to expand...

Again, my evidence was strictly on a personal level. I'm not going to go on about how the sentiments of a few friends echoes the rest of NA.

Countrywide, of course there is still lots of interest for the 360.

The point being that the PS3 and 360 are going head to head now, where months prior, it was 360 stomping the PS3 in to the ground.

It really doesn't bother me any way, but ideally, i'd like to see Sony give MS a beat of a beating so they can be even more aggressive.

Both consoles have their faults, and its going to take competition to fix them.

So I'll go back to my post again, most of my friends don't see a reason to get a 360.

MS needs to change that sort of mindset or risk losing their strongest territory.

And I'm willing to be absolutely wrong.

I'm just hedging a bet.
 
Mojovonio said:
Again, my evidence was strictly on a personal level. I'm not going to go on about how the sentiments of a few friends echoes the rest of NA.

...

So I'll go back to my post again, most of my friends don't see a reason to get a 360.

MS needs to change that sort of mindset or risk losing their strongest territory.

And I'm willing to be absolutely wrong.

I'm just hedging a bet.
Click to expand...

Is it possible that your friends reflect your own attitude towards the 360 and aren't representative of the game-buying public outside this forum?
 
Mojovonio said:
Again, my evidence was strictly on a personal level. I'm not going to go on about how the sentiments of a few friends echoes the rest of NA.

Countrywide, of course there is still lots of interest for the 360.

The point being that the PS3 and 360 are going head to head now, where months prior, it was 360 stomping the PS3 in to the ground.

It really doesn't bother me any way, but ideally, i'd like to see Sony give MS a beat of a beating so they can be even more aggressive.

Both consoles have their faults, and its going to take competition to fix them.

So I'll go back to my post again, most of my friends don't see a reason to get a 360.

MS needs to change that sort of mindset or risk losing their strongest territory.

And I'm willing to be absolutely wrong.

I'm just hedging a bet.
Click to expand...

Okay, now I understand. I had the impression from your post that you were talking about a huge blowout over the next couple of months in favor of the PS3. I did not realize you meant that the two consoles would really go head to head now as far as sales go. My bad.

-G
 
Vinci said:
Is it possible that your friends reflect your own attitude towards the 360 and aren't representative of the game-buying public outside this forum?
Click to expand...

No, I'm actually a huge xbot ;)

GPsych said:
Okay, now I understand. I had the impression from your post that you were talking about a huge blowout over the next couple of months in favor of the PS3. I did not realize you meant that the two consoles would really go head to head now as far as sales go. My bad.

-G
Click to expand...

Reading through my original post, I can see how that may have come across.

Ideally, I'd like to see both consoles in a heated competition with each other, so it can benefit me, the gamer.

Forget the Wii, that thing has its own stratosphere.
 
[360] 250k
[NDS] 450k
[PS2] 220k
[PS3] 220k
[PSP] 220k
[WII] 375k

Nintendo should've gotten their shipments going at least decently by now.
 
Lots of you are saying the 360 has hardware supply probs but everywhere I have gone in Northern Utah has had plenty on the shelf. I don't think its going to be a problem for MS.
 
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