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donny2112 · Jan 4, 2009

We're predicting for five games that I'm reasonably sure will be in the Top 10 with some leaning to what EEDAR predicts via the simExchange.

Games/Format:

[360 Gears of War 2]
[360 COD: World at War]
[PS3 COD: World at War]
[WII Mario Kart]
[WII Wii Fit]
[Total SW $ in millions]

Code:

Good                        Bad
[WII Mario Kart] 200K       [WII Mario Kart] 200 thousand
[WII Mario Kart] 200,000    [WII Mario Kart] 200.000
[WII Mario Kart] 200000     [WII Mario Kart] - 200,000

The Hardware Prediction thread is here.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 5 p.m. EST on Sunday, January 11th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: November 30 - January 3 (5 weeks, November was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: January 15th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Code:

                              Oct 2008   Nov 2008

[360 Gears of War 2]                       1,560K
[360 COD: World at War]                    1,410K
[PS3 COD: World at War]                      597K
[WII Mario Kart]                  290K       637K
[WII Wii Fit]                     487K       697K
[Total SW $ in millions]          697      1,450

Sindou_Hikaru20 · Jan 4, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 1100k
[360 COD: World at War] 1000k
[PS3 COD: World at War] 700k
[WII Mario Kart] 780k
[WII Wii Fit] 700k

Flakster99 · Jan 4, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 1000k
[360 COD: World at War] 850k
[PS3 COD: World at War] 320k
[WII Mario Kart] 1130k
[WII Wii Fit] 1260k
[Total SW $ in millions] 2970K

Edit: Oops, added Total SW $

RBH · Jan 4, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 1000k
[360 COD: World at War] 800k
[PS3 COD: World at War] 500k
[WII Mario Kart] 500k
[WII Wii Fit] 800k
[Total SW $ in millions] 1,800

w3stfa11 · Jan 4, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 1100K
[360 COD: World at War] 1400k
[PS3 COD: World at War] 650k
[WII Mario Kart] 900K
[WII Wii Fit] 850K
[Total SW $ in millions] 2,750

botticus · Jan 6, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 1000k
[360 COD: World at War] 800k
[PS3 COD: World at War] 300k
[WII Mario Kart] 800k
[WII Wii Fit] 875k
[Total SW $ in millions] 2850

apujanata · Jan 6, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 780K
[360 COD: World at War] 1300K
[PS3 COD: World at War] 650K
[WII Mario Kart] 1200K
[WII Wii Fit] 900K
[Total SW $ in millions] 2630

shykyoichi · Jan 7, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 1000K
[360 COD: World at War] 800K
[PS3 COD: World at War] 300K
[WII Mario Kart] 825K
[WII Wii Fit] 850K
[Total SW $ in millions] 2850K

donny2112 · Jan 7, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 1200K
[360 COD: World at War] 1250K
[PS3 COD: World at War] 600K
[WII Mario Kart] 700K
[WII Wii Fit] 950K
[Total SW $ in millions] 2500

rikitikitik · Jan 7, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 1150k
[360 COD: World at War] 950k
[PS3 COD: World at War] 715k
[WII Mario Kart] 835k
[WII Wii Fit] 570k
[Total SW $ in millions] 2500

Hammer24 · Jan 7, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 1150K
[360 COD: World at War] 1250K
[PS3 COD: World at War] 550K
[WII Mario Kart] 850K
[WII Wii Fit] 900K
[Total SW $ in millions] 2650

SIP YEK NOD · Jan 7, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 999k
[360 COD: World at War] 888k
[PS3 COD: World at War] 555k
[WII Mario Kart] 666k
[WII Wii Fit] 777k
[Total SW $ in millions] 2100

Hammer24 · Jan 7, 2009

apujanata said:
[360 Gears of War 2] 780K
[360 COD: World at War] 1300K
[PS3 COD: World at War] 650K
[WII Mario Kart] 1200K
[WII Wii Fit] 900K
[Total SW $ in millions] 263

Could it be you forgot a zero in your total software estimate?

apujanata · Jan 7, 2009

Hammer24 said:
Could it be you forgot a zero in your total software estimate?

Thanks for spotting my mistake. I was converting the # from my simEx spreadsheet, and forgot to add a zero to it (I added zero to the other #). I have corrected the mistake.

HocusPocus · Jan 7, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 950k
[360 COD: World at War] 1050k
[PS3 COD: World at War] 400k
[WII Mario Kart] 550k
[WII Wii Fit] 650k
[Total SW $ in millions] $2200

andy_lhc · Jan 9, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 1150K
[360 COD: World at War] 1050K
[PS3 COD: World at War] 550K
[WII Mario Kart] 700K
[WII Wii Fit] 900K
[Total SW $ in millions] 2000

starship · Jan 10, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 890k
[360 COD: World at War] 980k
[PS3 COD: World at War] 450k
[WII Mario Kart] 950k
[WII Wii Fit] 900k
[Total SW $ in millions] 2,700k

MikeE21286 · Jan 10, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 800k
[360 COD: World at War] 650k
[PS3 COD: World at War] 375k
[WII Mario Kart] 725k
[WII Wii Fit] 675k
[Total SW $ in millions] 2500

Brakara · Jan 10, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 975k
[360 COD: World at War] 1100k
[PS3 COD: World at War] 425k
[WII Mario Kart] 800k
[WII Wii Fit] 750k
[Total SW $ in millions] 2400

Kenka · Jan 10, 2009

I sincerely congrat the people able to judge sales after the data we have. Damn, that's tough...

rostocker · Jan 10, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 1160K
[360 COD: World at War] 1500K
[PS3 COD: World at War] 556K
[WII Mario Kart] 750K
[WII Wii Fit] 980K
[Total SW $ in millions] 2500

h3ro · Jan 10, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 1100K
[360 COD: World at War] 1500K
[PS3 COD: World at War] 500K
[WII Mario Kart] 900K
[WII Wii Fit] 850K
[Total SW $ in millions] 2500

lubczyk · Jan 10, 2009

[WII Mario Kart Wii] 2300K
[WII Fit] 1800K
[360 COD: World at War] 1300K
[360 Gears of War 2] 900K
[PS3 COD: World at War] 500K
[Total SW $ in millions] 3200

Chumly · Jan 10, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 1100K
[360 COD: World at War] 1100K
[PS3 COD: World at War] 400K
[WII Mario Kart] 750K
[WII Wii Fit] 750K
[Total SW $ in millions] 2500

Frillen · Jan 11, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 750k
[360 COD: World at War] 1100k
[PS3 COD: World at War] 450k
[WII Mario Kart] 1100k
[WII Wii Fit] 900k
[Total SW $ in millions] 2900

DrForester · Jan 11, 2009

I'm only making one longshot prediction.

"Personal Trainer: Cooking" makes the top 10.

Spiegel · Jan 11, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 880K
[360 COD: World at War] 1340K
[PS3 COD: World at War] 550K
[WII Mario Kart] 950K
[WII Wii Fit] 970K
[Total SW $ in millions] 2850

kefka2030 · Jan 11, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 1,029,200
[360 COD: World at War] 1,132,000
[PS3 COD: World at War] 421,000
[WII Mario Kart] 1,354,000
[WII Wii Fit] 1,194,000
[Total SW $ in millions] 2,723

GameGamer · Jan 11, 2009

I was wondering how giveaways are counted.

For example, Amazon was giving away a free copy of Little Big Planet with each PS3 sold for a while.

Does that count as a NPD sale since the product 'went though' retail? Or does it not count because the title brought no money for itself from the customer?

PS3GamerKyle · Jan 11, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 990k
[360 COD: World at War] 1000k
[PS3 COD: World at War] 750k
[WII Mario Kart] 1000K
[WII Wii Fit] 1100k
[Total SW $ in millions] 2,850k

donny2112 · Jan 11, 2009

GameGamer said:
I was wondering how giveaways are counted.

For example, Amazon was giving away a free copy of Little Big Planet with each PS3 sold for a while.

Does that count as a NPD sale since the product 'went though' retail? Or does it not count because the title brought no money for itself from the customer?

There was a similar situation when Nintendo gave away Metroid Prime with the GameCube (non-bundled) in early 2003. I don't 100% recall what was done there, but I believe that all non-maufactured bundled games still count towards the sales. They just have to be scanned through separately.

perfectchaos007 · Jan 11, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 800K
[360 COD: World at War] 960K
[PS3 COD: World at War] 500K
[WII Mario Kart] 1360K
[WII Wii Fit] 600K
[Total SW $ in millions] 1357

Saiyar · Jan 11, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 800k
[360 COD: World at War] 1200k
[PS3 COD: World at War] 600k
[WII Mario Kart] 1500k
[WII Wii Fit] 1500k
[Total SW $ in millions] 2250

boontje · Jan 11, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 900k
[360 COD: World at War] 1100k
[PS3 COD: World at War] 450k
[WII Mario Kart] 950k
[WII Wii Fit] 850k
[Total SW $ in millions] 2400

llonesmiz · Jan 11, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 950k
[360 COD: World at War] 1100k
[PS3 COD: World at War] 450k
[WII Mario Kart] 890k
[WII Wii Fit] 910k
[Total SW $ in millions] 2750

Nirolak · Jan 11, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 1150K
[360 COD: World at War] 1100K
[PS3 COD: World at War] 550K
[WII Mario Kart] 790K
[WII Wii Fit] 850K
[Total SW $ in millions] 2450

Sectus · Jan 11, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 2K
[360 COD: World at War] 1K
[PS3 COD: World at War] 1K
[WII Mario Kart] 500000K
[WII Wii Fit] 700000K
[Total SW $ in millions] 1500000

Accident · Jan 11, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 999k
[360 COD: World at War] 1200k
[PS3 COD: World at War] 480k
[WII Mario Kart] 1000k
[WII Wii Fit] 950k
[Total SW $ in millions] 2700K

zsidane · Jan 11, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 1110k
[360 COD: World at War] 1250k
[PS3 COD: World at War] 630k
[WII Mario Kart] 1120k
[WII Wii Fit] 1090k
[Total SW $ in millions] 2400K

akilshohen · Jan 11, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 760k
[360 COD: World at War] 650k
[PS3 COD: World at War] 300k
[WII Mario Kart] 500k
[WII Wii Fit] 600k
[Total SW $ in millions] 2500k

donny2112 · Jan 11, 2009

Just a few minutes left.

Steverulez · Jan 11, 2009

[360 Gears of War 2] 800k
[360 COD: World at War] 1200k
[PS3 COD: World at War] 36500k
[WII Mario Kart] 600k
[WII Wii Fit] 700k
[Total SW $ in millions] 2600k

donny2112 · Jan 16, 2009

Sorry, steverulez. Just a few minutes too late.

December 2008 Software Prediction Results

Code:

     December 2008               Last 3 Months                Overall 2008	
1.   Spiegel            103.37   llonesmiz           242.94   apujanata           838.77
2.   Frillen             96.25   Accident            242.87   starship            822.67
3.   llonesmiz           95.87   apujanata           241.49   llonesmiz           814.05
4.   GAF Average         95.49   GAF Average         239.38   Frillen             812.38
5.   Accident            95.48   Frillen             230.44   rostocker           812.35
6.   apujanata           94.9    rostocker           228.98   GAF Average         805.13
7.   Hammer24            94.67   starship            225.7    Hammer24            802.79
8.   starship            94.11   Chumly              223.74   andy_lhc            794.23
9.   h3ro                93.19   Hammer24            222.11   RBH                 763.57
10.  rostocker           92.14   kefka2030           221.56   Chumly              762.06
11.  w3stfa11            91.54   rikitikitik         211.96   donny2112           758.61
12.  donny2112           89.03   boontje             211.71   Brakara             755.09
13.  PS3GamerKyle        85.52   botticus            206.59   rikitikitik         745.73
14.  boontje             84.64   Spiegel             205.92   Jesse2040           723.39
15.  Chumly              84.12   Brakara             199.44   botticus            710.23
16.  MikeE21286          82.4    donny2112           199.23   Spiegel             693.42
17.  shykyoichi          82.25   RBH                 197.59   kefka2030           690.97
18.  botticus            82.18   andy_lhc            194.18   boontje             650.45
19.  kefka2030           80.44   SIP YEK NOD         173.12   SIP YEK NOD         612.79
20.  Nirolak             80.04   akilshohen          161.78   Accident            565.83
21.  Brakara             79.55   HocusPocus          156.95   Bending_Unit_22     502.33
22.  andy_lhc            78.24   Jesse2040           148.27   DayShallCome        496.35
23.  zsidane             78.02   Aaron Strife        117.19   megaman511          480.74
24.  rikitikitik         77.02   shykyoichi          115.12   seattle6418         462.65
25.  Flakster99          76.98   Sean                 97.43   Sean                417.71
26.  SIP YEK NOD         76.44   h3ro                 93.19   dammitmattt         389.05
27.  akilshohen          74.03   w3stfa11             91.54   BuzzJive            388.37
28.  perfectchaos007     72.75   PS3GamerKyle         85.52   schuelma            339.2
29.  RBH                 71.35   Orbitcube            84.89   zsidane             309.74
30.  Sindou_Hikaru20     71.02   MikeE21286           82.4    crimsonheadGCN      296.44
31.  HocusPocus          70.84   Nirolak              80.04   Clever Pun          266.73
32.  Saiyar              69.86   scorpian007          79.02   perfectchaos007     262.75
33.  lubczyk             58.11   beermonkey@tehbias   78.97   jarrod              250.47
34.                              zsidane              78.02   JJConrad            246.71
35.                              Flakster99           76.98   akilshohen          239.39

Congratulations, Spiegel for the monthly title!

Congratulations, apujanata for the overall 2008 title!

Hammer24 · Jan 16, 2009

donny2112 said:
Congratulations, Spiegel for the monthly title!

Congratulations, apujanata for the overall 2008 title!

Congrats guys!

And apu, I´ll have a beer, thx!

starship · Jan 16, 2009

I'm number 2 here too?

Great result for software predictions because I always throw numbers out of my ass.

apujanata · Jan 16, 2009

Hammer24 said:
Congrats guys!

And apu, I´ll have a beer, thx!

Sure, beer is not a problem. As long as you came to my country (Asia Pacific), I will treat you with 10 glasses of beer (taxi money if you are drunk are not included)

I am glad that I am #1 here, but it is a close call.

I wondered why Jesse2040 didn't vote for December 08 ?

starship said:
Great result for software predictions because I always throw numbers out of my ass.

Your ass must be very special and unique. Have you ever considered insuring it ? Just in case anything happened to your ass

. IIRC, Dolly Parton insured her enormous breast.

h3ro · Jan 16, 2009

9th Place... sweet! Not bad for just putting up random numbers... :lol

Hammer24 · Jan 16, 2009

apujanata said:
Sure, beer is not a problem. As long as you came to my country (Asia Pacific), I will treat you with 10 glasses of beer (taxi money if you are drunk are not included)

Asia/Pacific huh? When I imagine You sitting under some coconut palm at the beach of a tiny micronesian island, cocktail in hand - You´d better be carefull as I might take Your word at face value. I happen to travel a lot.

Spiegel · Jan 16, 2009

1. Spiegel 103.37

apujanata · Jan 17, 2009

Hammer24 said:
Asia/Pacific huh? When I imagine You sitting under some coconut palm at the beach of a tiny micronesian island, cocktail in hand - You´d better be carefull as I might take Your word at face value. I happen to travel a lot.

No problemo man. Just drop me a PM at least one week before your visit (just in case I am really busy with work during that period, and didn't visit NeoGAF. I usually visit at least once a day). Well, the island I live on did have coconut palm tree at the beach. It also have coctail. Unfortunately, the island is not a tiny one, and I don't really drink cocktrail (I avoid alcohol as much as I can, but I have no problem treating a guest to beer or something stronger, as long as it is not an XO).

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