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(Hardware) April 2009 NPD Predictions - Closes May 10 (Mother's Day in U.S.)

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donny2112

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Predict early, so you won't be late! :)

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 5 p.m. EDT on Sunday, May 10th (Happy Mother's Day! in the U.S.). Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: April 5 - May 2 (4 weeks, March was 5 weeks)
NPD Release: May 14th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:

[360]
[NDS]
[PS2]
[PS3]
[PSP]
[WII]

Code: 
Good              Bad
[360] 234K        [360] 234.5K
[360] 234,000     [360] 234.000
[360] 234567      [360] - 234000
The Software Prediction thread is here.


Potential hardware impacting events for March:

  • PS2 price drop to $99 - April 1 (Just prior to April NPD period)
  • DSi release @ $170 - April 5 (300K 1st day, 435K 1st week but 58K of those are counted in March => ~240K 1st day, ~380K 1st week for April's NPD for DSi only) (Nintendo: DS ~doubled 2008 in the U.S. in April)
  • Easter - April 12


March's Results - thanks to NPD and EviLore

EviLore said:
PlayStation 2 112K
PlayStation 3 218K
PSP 168K
Xbox 360 330K
Wii 601K
Nintendo DS 563K


RESIDENT EVIL 5* (360) 938K
POKEMON PLATINUM VERSION (NDS) 805K
HALO WARS* (360) 639K
RESIDENT EVIL 5* (PS3) 585K
WII FIT W/BALANCE BOARD (WII) 541K
MLB '09: THE SHOW (PS3) 305K
KILLZONE 2 (PS3) 296K
WII PLAY W/REMOTE (WII) 281K
MARIO KART W/WHEEL (WII) 278K
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL 2K9 (360) 205K

(*includes CE, GOTY editions, bundles, etc. but not those bundled with hardware)
Click to expand...

Mar-08 -> Apr-08 transition:

Code: 
      Mar-08   Apr-08   % change
360     262K     188K      - 28%
NDS     698K     415K      - 41%
PS2     216K     124K      - 43%
PS3     257K     187K      - 27%
PSP     297K     193K      - 35%
WII     721K     714K      -  1%

March Prediction Results: Units / Points
 
[360] 250K
[NDS] 850K
[PS2] 100K
[PS3] 200K
[PSP] 120K
[WII] 500K

All even numbers this time. Should I include the DSi and DS Lite in one number? As of now, I combined them.
 
[360] 255K
[NDS] 860K
[PS2] 99K
[PS3] 180K
[PSP] 140K
[WII] 550K

Quick Notes Last Year GTA4/Mario Kart came out right?
Hence the larger numbers last year but any new releases to keep note of this year?
 
Am I missing something, or are most of you completely off the mark on the ds numbers? Even if ds/dsi did a conservative 100k/week after dsi's 380k first week, that would still be 680k for the month. And isn't NPD grouping dsi/ds together?

[360] 270k
[NDS] 900k
[PS2] 175k
[PS3] 160k
[PSP] 135k
[WII] 500k
 
nextgeneration said:
Am I missing something, or are most of you completely off the mark on the ds numbers? Even if ds/dsi did a conservative 100k after dsi's 380k first week, that would still be 680k for the month. And isn't NPD grouping dsi/ds together?
Click to expand...
Sshhhh my points?!
 
d[-_-]b said:
Quick Notes Last Year GTA4/Mario Kart came out right?
Hence the larger numbers last year but any new releases to keep note of this year?
Click to expand...

Only relatively major ones I can think of are Excitebots and Godfather 2. Oh and the licensed X-men Wolverine game.
 
d[-_-]b said:
Quick Notes Last Year GTA4/Mario Kart came out right?
Click to expand...

Yes, but neither affected hardware much.

nextgeneration said:
And isn't NPD grouping dsi/ds together?
Click to expand...

I fully expect them to when they report the public numbers. They did with DS/DSL, for example.

Edit:
Also, the 380K 1st week would be for DSi only. Any DSL weekly sales would go on top of that. I just realized this. :lol
 
[NDS] 900K
[Wii] 532K
[360] 264K
[PS3] 160K
[PS2] 140K
[PSP] 135K

Various People said:
[PS3] 254k

[PS3] 199K

[PS3]195K

PlayStation 3 240K

[PS3] 200k

and more
Click to expand...
Is there something notable for PS3 this month? Of the three months in 2009, two of them (January and March) have been PS3's weakest of those months yet. Each month this year has been down from last year. PS3's previous Aprils were 183K and 193K, so numbers above those stick out a bit.
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
[NDS] 900K
[Wii] 532K
[360] 264K
[PS3] 160K
[PS2] 140K
[PSP] 135K


Is there something notable for PS3 this month? Of the three months in 2009, two of them (January and March) have been PS3's weakest of those months yet. Each month this year has been down from last year. PS3's previous Aprils were 183K and 193K, so numbers above those stick out a bit.
Click to expand...

No doubt about it. Should be well under 200k with how it's trending for the last two months. Would have been under that last month had it not been for the fifth week.
 
[NDS] 800K
[Wii] 590K
[360] 290K
[PS3] 190K
[PS2] 150K
[PSP] 200K

Numbers are probably going to be off but hey guessing is where most of the fun lies.
 
donny2112 said:
I fully expect them to when they report the public numbers. They did with DS/DSL, for example.
Click to expand...

Yup that is correct.

NPD released a statement a few days before the DSi launched that said all numbers will be lumped together under one NDS category and will not be separated.
 
What launched on the DS making some of these really high numbers?

fake edit: Oh yeah... Pokemon!

I think I'm going to fix my numbers up there.
 
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