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donny2112 · May 4, 2009

We're predicting for five games that I'm reasonably sure will be in the Top 10 with some leaning to what EEDAR predicts will make the Top 10 for the month.

Games/Format:

[360 Resident Evil 5]
[NDS Pokemon Platinum]
[NDS Rhythm Heaven]
[WII Mario Kart Wii]
[WII Wii Fit]

[Total SW $ in millions]

Code:

Good                            Bad
[360 Resident Evil 5] 400K      [360 Resident Evil 5] 400 thousand
[360 Resident Evil 5] 400,000   [360 Resident Evil 5] 400.000
[360 Resident Evil 5] 400000    [360 Resident Evil 5] - 400,000

The Hardware Prediction thread is here.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 5 p.m. EDT on Sunday, May 10th (Happy Mother's Day! in the U.S.). Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: April 5 - May 2 (4 weeks, March was 5 weeks)
NPD Release: May 14th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Code:

                         Feb 2009  Mar 2009

[360 Resident Evil 5]          -       938K
[NDS Pokemon Platinum]         -       805K
[WII Mario Kart Wii]         263K      278K
[WII Wii Fit]                644K      541K

[Total SW $ in millions]      734       793

Days available in tracking period (new releases):
NDS Rhythm Heaven - 28 days

JJConrad · May 4, 2009

So really wasn't much of anything new released last month. I thought I was just not paying attention.

Can you add Excitebots to the list? Even if it doesn't make the top10, I sure some site will announce its sales.

donny2112 · May 4, 2009

JJConrad said:
Can you add Excitebots to the list? Even if it doesn't make the top10, I sure some site will announce its sales.

If games sell really low, it's very easy to end up getting zero points, if you overshoot the sales. e.g. 25K actual with a 65K prediction gives zero points. Therefore, I try to keep it to things in the Top 10 for that reason, as well as for the reason of actually getting the sales numbers. Anyone who wants to predict for EXCITEbots just for their own sake can, though. It just won't be included in the point totals.

andy_lhc · May 4, 2009

[360 Resident Evil 5] 400k
[NDS Pokemon Platinum] 620k
[NDS Rhythm Heaven] 250k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 265k
[WII Wii Fit] 520k

[Total SW $ in millions] 780

WaltJay · May 4, 2009

[360 Resident Evil 5] 350k
[NDS Pokemon Platinum] 675k
[NDS Rhythm Heaven] 200k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 295k
[WII Wii Fit] 500k

[Total SW $ in millions] 800

botticus · May 4, 2009

[360 Resident Evil 5] 400k
[NDS Pokemon Platinum] 600k
[NDS Rhythm Heaven] 175k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 210k
[WII Wii Fit] 390k
[Total SW $ in millions] 650

apujanata · May 5, 2009

I have a suspicion that Rhythm Heaven are going to be bigger than expected

.

donny2112 · May 5, 2009

[360 Resident Evil 5] 250K
[NDS Pokemon Platinum] 750K
[NDS Rhythm Heaven] 380K
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 190K
[WII Wii Fit] 400K

[Total SW $ in millions] 700

billy.sea · May 5, 2009

Highly doubt Rhythm Heaven will hit top 10. The game is on sale everywhere and I think it has something to do with it not selling. I predict it sell pretty much the same (maybe a little better) as Elite Beat Agents.

[360 Resident Evil 5] 370K
[NDS Pokemon Platinum] 590K
[NDS Rhythm Heaven] 90K
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 310K
[WII Wii Fit] 420K

RBH · May 7, 2009

[360 Resident Evil 5] 200k
[NDS Pokemon Platinum] 650k
[NDS Rhythm Heaven] 200k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 250k
[WII Wii Fit] 500k

[Total SW $ in millions] 700

Hammer24 · May 8, 2009

[360 Resident Evil 5] 175k
[NDS Pokemon Platinum] 595k
[NDS Rhythm Heaven] 325k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 225k
[WII Wii Fit] 525k

[Total SW $ in millions] 685

shykyoichi · May 8, 2009

[360 Resident Evil 5] 400k
[NDS Pokemon Platinum] 610k
[NDS Rhythm Heaven] 160k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 215k
[WII Wii Fit] 390k
[Total SW $ in millions] 650

Vinci · May 8, 2009

[360 Resident Evil 5] 265K
[NDS Pokemon Platinum] 710K
[NDS Rhythm Heaven] 350K
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 200K
[WII Wii Fit] 470K

[Total SW $ in millions] 750

boontje · May 9, 2009

[360 Resident Evil 5] 210k
[NDS Pokemon Platinum] 500k
[NDS Rhythm Heaven] 150k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 220k
[WII Wii Fit] 450k
[Total SW $ in millions] 625

rostocker · May 9, 2009

[360 Resident Evil 5] 245k
[NDS Pokemon Platinum] 600k
[NDS Rhythm Heaven] 180k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 220k
[WII Wii Fit] 505k

[Total SW $ in millions] 650

JJConrad · May 9, 2009

[360 Resident Evil 5] 200k
[NDS Pokemon Platinum] 250k
[NDS Rhythm Heaven] 200k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 250k
[WII Wii Fit] 475k

[Total SW $ in millions] 725k

[WII Excitebots] 85k

Brakara · May 9, 2009

[360 Resident Evil 5] 225k
[NDS Pokemon Platinum] 350k
[NDS Rhythm Heaven] 200k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 240k
[WII Wii Fit] 415k

[Total SW $ in millions] 675

The M.O.B · May 9, 2009

[360 Resident Evil 5] 420k
[NDS Pokemon Platinum] 305k
[NDS Rhythm Heaven] 240k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 220k
[WII Wii Fit] 430k

[Total SW $ in millions] 680

llonesmiz · May 10, 2009

[360 Resident Evil 5] 300k
[NDS Pokemon Platinum] 500k
[NDS Rhythm Heaven] 180k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 250k
[WII Wii Fit] 545k
[Total SW $ in millions] 665

apujanata · May 10, 2009

[360 Resident Evil 5] 160K
[NDS Pokemon Platinum] 300K
[NDS Rhythm Heaven] 220K
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 220K
[WII Wii Fit] 500K

[Total SW $ in millions] 700k

my RE5 prediction is the lowest one so far. I wonder how it will fare

.

rikitikitik · May 10, 2009

[360 Resident Evil 5] 145k
[NDS Pokemon Platinum] 645k
[NDS Rhythm Heaven] 85k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 215k
[WII Wii Fit] 275k

[Total SW $ in millions] 615

starship · May 10, 2009

[360 Resident Evil 5] 170K
[NDS Pokemon Platinum] 350K
[NDS Rhythm Heaven] 250K
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 180K
[WII Wii Fit] 450K

[Total SW $ in millions] 630

Christine · May 10, 2009

[360 Resident Evil 5] 310,000
[NDS Pokemon Platinum] 770,000
[NDS Rhythm Heaven] 360,000
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 245,000
[WII Wii Fit] 490,000

[Total SW $ in millions] 770

John Dunbar · May 10, 2009

[360 Resident Evil 5] 200,000
[NDS Pokemon Platinum] 320,000
[NDS Rhythm Heaven] 210,000
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 225,000
[WII Wii Fit] 500,000

[Total SW $ in millions] 690

_Alkaline_ · May 10, 2009

[360 Resident Evil 5] 285K
[NDS Pokemon Platinum] 390K
[NDS Rhythm Heaven] 205K
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 210K
[WII Wii Fit] 435K

[Total SW $ in millions] 685

VegaShinra · May 10, 2009

[360 Resident Evil 5] 333k
[NDS Pokemon Platinum] 450k
[NDS Rhythm Heaven] 175k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 275k
[WII Wii Fit] 445K

[Total SW $ in millions] 656

zsidane · May 10, 2009

[360 Resident Evil 5] 310k
[NDS Pokemon Platinum] 460k
[NDS Rhythm Heaven] 110k
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 280k
[WII Wii Fit] 505k

[Total SW $ in millions] 710

Chumly · May 10, 2009

[360 Resident Evil 5] 275K
[NDS Pokemon Platinum] 300K
[NDS Rhythm Heaven] 150K
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 250K
[WII Wii Fit] 500K

[Total SW $ in millions] 700

donny2112 · May 11, 2009

GAF Average

NDS Pokemon Platinum - 512K
WII Wii Fit - 460K
360 Resident Evil 5 - 275K
WII Mario Kart Wii - 236K
NDS Rhythm Heaven - 210K

Total SW $ in millions - 691

apujanata · May 15, 2009

donny2112 said:
GAF Average

NDS Pokemon Platinum - 512K
WII Wii Fit - 460K
360 Resident Evil 5 - 275K
WII Mario Kart Wii - 236K
NDS Rhythm Heaven - 210K

Total SW $ in millions - 691

My result :
[360 Resident Evil 5] 160K - 38K off
[NDS Pokemon Platinum] 300K - 133K off
[NDS Rhythm Heaven] 220K - unknown, but should be way off
[WII Mario Kart Wii] 220K - 10K off, nice
[WII Wii Fit] 500K - 29K off, nice

[Total SW $ in millions] 700k - more than 10% off

donny2112 · May 17, 2009

There are eight predictors who have a chance to receive additional points for Rhythm Heaven (i.e. they predicted < 180K for it), so I'll hold off on doing the prediction results to see if we get that number over the next week.

donny2112 · May 30, 2009

April NPD Software Results

Code:

     April 2009                  Last 3 Months                Overall 2009
1.   Jesse2040          68.33    RBH                 233.49   apujanata           307.12
2.   apujanata          65.44    boontje             215.92   Jesse2040           297.95
3.   starship           64.55    andy_lhc            215.1    boontje             292.31
4.   boontje            60.63    apujanata           213.81   llonesmiz           291.83
5.   Hammer24           60.11    llonesmiz           212.38   RBH                 291.22
6.   John Dunbar        59.33    John Dunbar         210.94   John Dunbar         289.05
7.   rikitikitik        57.64    Hammer24            207.37   andy_lhc            286.14
8.   _Alkaline_         56.49    GAF Average         206.79   GAF Average         284.79
9.   JJConrad           54.78    botticus            206.08   botticus            283.24
10.  Brakara            54.05    _Alkaline_          204.58   Hammer24            278.17
11.  GAF Average        53.41    starship            201.72   billy.sea           278.06
12.  RBH                52.15    Jesse2040           200.25   starship            270.93
13.  VegaShinra         51.92    zsidane             195.38   WaltJay             269.39
14.  The M.O.B          51.39    TwinIonEngines      193.98   Brakara             268.76
15.  zsidane            50.64    rostocker           192.57   rostocker           268.29
16.  llonesmiz          49.95    Chumly              190.25   TwinIonEngines      262.01
17.  rostocker          49.89    billy.sea           189.1    Chumly              261.49
18.  botticus           48.85    WaltJay             186.47   The M.O.B           260.99
19.  Chumly             48.82    The M.O.B           186.23   donny2112           251.28
20.  shykyoichi         47.91    Brakara             184.98   Frillen             224.01
21.  Vinci              46.21    donny2112           175.13   kefka2030           211.32
22.  andy_lhc           44.04    Frillen             147.09   _Alkaline_          204.58
23.  billy.sea          41.06    dolemite            142.51   zsidane             195.38
24.  donny2112          40.44    kefka2030           141.75   Flakster99          192.67
25.  TwinIonEngines     40.29    rikitikitik         135.12   dolemite            142.51
26.  WaltJay            39.5     Aaron Strife        130.72   rikitikitik         135.12
27.                              Flakster99          125.11   Aaron Strife        130.72
28.                              h3ro                124.64   h3ro                124.64
29.                              PSGames             116.54   PSGames             116.54
30.                              shykyoichi          116.04   shykyoichi          116.04

Congratulations, Jesse2040/EEDAR!

I excluded Rhythm Heaven since we never got an official number for it. We could've guesstimated it, since we have numbers above and below it, but that's an option I'd rather not use for the official results, if I can help it.

I found that Jesse2040/EEDAR predictions were available early enough for February, March, and April, in the same vein as Michael Pachter/Wedbush Morgan Securities predictions are available early enough (i.e. after the thread deadline but before NPD release). Since I include Mr. Pachter's predictions, I've gone back and included Jesse2040/EEDAR's predictions, too.

Sorry for the previous oversight.

Jesse2040 · May 31, 2009

We do our forecasts about 3-4 weeks prior to the numbers. I just keep forgetting to post them here and I try not to be first as I'd hate to be the one that sets the tone. (Not that we are better than anyone else

Just statistically proven that the first few that make a prediction usually sets the bar for the next forecasters)

donny2112 · May 31, 2009

Results are updated again.

Jesse2040 said:
I just keep forgetting to post them here

See the update in the previous post. Your predictions were readily available on the web, so I should've included them on the front end. Sorry about that.

Posting them here would still be helpful, though.

Jesse2040 · May 31, 2009

Thanks, much appreciated.
I set a reminder to throw my forecasts in here every month..it's completely my fault for not posting them in here.

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(Software) April 2009 NPD Predictions - Closes May 10 (Mother's Day in U.S.)

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