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(Hardware) May 2009 NPD Predictions - Closes June 7

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donny2112

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With E3 next week, predict early, so you won't miss it with all the other stuff going on. That's why I'm posting the thread earlier than usual this month. :)

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 5 p.m. EDT on Sunday, June 7th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: May 3-30 (4 weeks, April was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: June 11th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:

[360]
[NDS]
[PS2]
[PS3]
[PSP]
[WII]

Code: 
Good              Bad
[360] 234K        [360] 234.5K
[360] 234,000     [360] 234.000
[360] 234567      [360] - 234000
The Software Prediction thread is here.


Potential hardware impacting events in May:

Recession


April's Results - thanks to NPD and EviLore

EviLore said:
PlayStation 2 172K
PlayStation 3 127K
PSP 116K
Xbox 360 175K
Wii 340K
Nintendo DS 1.04M


FIT W/ BALANCE BOARD Wii 471K
POKEMON PLATINUM VERSION NDS 433K
MARIO KART W/ WHEEL Wii 210K
PLAY W/ REMOTE Wii 170K
THE GODFATHER II 360 155K
RESIDENT EVIL 5* 360 122K
NEW SUPER MARIO BROS NDS 119K
MARIO KART DS NDS 112K
GUITAR HERO AEROSMITH* 360 110K
THE GODFATHER II PS3 91K

(*includes CE, GOTY editions, bundles, etc. but not those bundled with hardware)
Click to expand...

Apr-08 -> May-08 transition:

Code: 
      Apr-08  May-08   % change
360     188K    187K    -  1%
NDS     415K    453K    +  9%
PS2     124K    133K    +  7%
PS3     187K    209K    + 12%
PSP     193K    182K    -  6%
WII     714K    675K    -  5%

April Prediction Results: Units / Points
 
Going to lowball everything but the DS this time around. I really don't know how much lower some hardware can go, but the recent trend is going to make this month tricky.
 
[360] 200k
[NDS] 700k
[PS2] 150k
[PS3] 160k
[PSP] 140k
[WII] 400k

last month was such a clusterfuck.. i don't know what to predict anymore...
 
[360] 147K
[NDS] 507k
[PS2] 97K
[PS3] 117K
[PSP] 97K
[WII] 307K

Like others, I don't know what to predict so I'm probably underestimating everything.
 
Triple will be well under 100k for the month. Start adjusting. How in the world would it remain constant at the rate of drop off from the last two months.
 
Jtyettis said:
Triple will be well under 100k for the month. Start adjusting. How in the world would it remain constant at the rate of drop off from the last two months.
Click to expand...

You'll be wrong about this :)

The rate of drop off from March --> April is pretty much expected and it happened for all the platforms. Tax return is over. Post-Holiday season is over. No big game releases = big drop.

The drop from April -> May won't be as pronounced.
 
JoJo13 said:
You'll be wrong about this :)
Click to expand...

Most definitely wrong last month;

Jtyettis said:
The week over week levels of last month (PS3) with the drop off from the month before suggest even less and possibly considerably less. If you had the same kind of drop off week over week for the month we would be looking at 113k for the month. I doubt that kind of drop of is sustained this month as well however as for some reason February was a particularly strong month all around. ~150k could very well happen I'd say though. At a constant rate it would be around 175k at best. With that said 360 is likely on the upper end as well.
Click to expand...
 
I only assume week over week rates that's it. Pretty easy math actually, but I even gave myself headroom for the month and it was far below my general estimate. I did not predict a full fallout to 113k as I said worst case scenario with 150k more likely. It was closer to 125. If it isn't I'll be highly surprised to say the least. The rate continues to fall with the rest.

You don't have to assume a similar drop. All I have to do is somewhere in the middle and I bet my math comes up below 100k still.
 
Let's look at some historical data:

March 2007:

PS3 - 130k

April 2007:

PS3 - 82k

37% drop.

May 2007:

PS3 - 82k

0% drop

Now, let's look at 2009 so far:

March 2009:

PS3 - 218k

April 2009:

PS3 - 127k

42% drop


As you can see, the PS3's drop in 2009 was similar to the one in 2007. The reason I'm not using 2008 data is because of GTA4, which definitely did push systems. May could be lower than April, but it won't go so low as to be 'well below' 100k as you suggest. It'll definitely be above 100k.
 
I'll do my math a bit later when I have more time, but if I had to guess off the top 80/85k or so.

Ok I was incorrect the middle comes in at 104k (26 a week=April week over week rate (32k per week) minus the drop off week over week March to April (~12k) devided by 2 =32-6=26k week) and at a constant rate 127k (31.75k per week). Worst case scenario 80k(20k a week=April week over week rate minus full drop week over week from March to April (12k per week) , but since I was high in the middle last month I still have my money on it at least 90-95k for the month. So maybe not far below, but certainly below.

We also were not in a full blown recession in mid 2007 and I'm taking that into consideration for a console that has run it's course in the current economic environment at $400.
 
Jtyettis said:
I'll do my math a bit later when I have more time, but if I had to guess off the top 80/85k or so.

Ok I was incorrect the middle comes in at 104k (26 a week=April week over week rate (32k per week) minus the drop off week over week March to April (~12k) devided by 2 =32-6=26k week) and at a constant rate 127k (31.75k per week). Worst case scenario 80k(20k a week=April week over week rate minus full drop week over week from March to April (12k per week) , but since I was high in the middle last month I still have my money on it at least 90-95k for the month. So maybe not far below, but certainly below.

We also were not in a full blown recession in mid 2007 and I'm taking that into consideration for a console that has run it's course in the current economic environment at $400.
Click to expand...

That's some insanely fuzzy math, and again, it assumes that the drop off from March -> April will be similar in magnitude to the drop off from April -> May, and there are numerous reasons why that won't happen.

And InFamous releases in May, and though I'm not suggesting it will be a gigantic system seller or anything, it could be enough to sustain current levels of PS3 sales without the drop off you're suggesting.
 
JoJo13 said:
That's some insanely fuzzy math, and again, it assumes that the drop off from March -> April will be similar in magnitude to the drop off from April -> May, and there are numerous reasons why that won't happen.

And InFamous releases in May, and though I'm not suggesting it will be a gigantic system seller or anything, it could be enough to sustain current levels of PS3 sales without the drop off you're suggesting.
Click to expand...

Heh, it's not fuzzy math at all. It's actually quite clear. It's the same math I used last month and I was high by 23k with the mid estimate bottom line. I'll give you Infamous as the one variable I haven't accounted for and I've thought about that a bit, but simply put I just do not see it moving any kind of systems.


And no it does not assume the same rate of drop off it assumes a drop off of less, but more than the mid. Where I should have put it last month as well.

I will say this however if anything does keep it above the line it would have to be Infamous as few thousand either way can make or break it, and I do suppose Infamous could help to push a few although I still have my doubts. The economy is not helping this thing at the current price point that is for certain.
 
Jtyettis said:
Heh, it's not fuzzy math at all. It's actually quite clear. It's the same math I used last month and I was high by 23k with the mid estimate bottom line. I'll give you Infamous as the one variable I haven't accounted for and I've thought about that a bit, but simply put I just do not see it moving any kind of systems.
Click to expand...

But the same math you used last month is not necessarily applicable to the math you would use this month, that's exactly what I'm saying. March --> April generally sees a significant drop. April --> May, generally not so much of a drop. The reason being is, as I said, due to tax return season being over and the post-holiday high dwindling down finally. But after April, things sustain themselves at somewhat low levels until the holiday season ramps up again in the fall.

Good software does 'push' systems, but the effect may not be noticeable unless you see that the system sold significantly more. Like I said, I don't expect it to be noticeable, but it could prevent a bigger drop from happening to the tune of 10+k a week at the end of May.
 
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