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(Hardware) December 2009 NPD Predictions - Closes January 10

D

donny2112

Member
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 5 p.m. EST on Sunday, January 10th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: November 29-January 2 (5 weeks, November was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: January 14th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Format:

[360]
[NDS]
[PS2]
[PS3]
[PSP]
[WII]

Code: 
Good              Bad
[NDS] 1,250K      [NDS] 1.25m
[NDS] 1,250,000   [NDS] 1.250.000
[NDS] 1250000     [NDS] - 1250000
The Software Prediction thread is here.


Potential hardware impacting events in December:
It's December. Biggest sales month of the year.


November's Results - thanks to NPD and EviLore

EviLore said:
PlayStation 2 203.1K
PlayStation 3 710.4K
PSP 293.9K
Xbox 360 819.5K
Wii 1.26M
Nintendo DS 1.70M


CALL OF DUTY: MODERN WARFARE 2* (360) |Nov-09| 4.20M
CALL OF DUTY: MODERN WARFARE 2* (PS3) |Nov-09| 1.87M
NEW SUPER MARIO BROS. WII (WII) |Nov-09| 1.39M
ASSASSIN'S CREED II (360) |Nov-09| 794.7K
LEFT 4 DEAD 2 (360) |Nov-09| 744.0K
WII SPORTS RESORT* (WII) |Jul-09| 720.2K
WII FIT PLUS* (WII) |Oct-09| 679.0K
ASSASSIN'S CREED II (PS3) |Nov-09| 448.4K
DRAGON AGE: ORIGINS* (360) |Nov-09| 362.1K
MARIO KART W/ WHEEL (WII) |Apr-08| 315.0K

(*includes CE, GOTY editions, bundles, etc. but not those bundled with hardware)
Click to expand...

Nov-08 -> Dec-08 transition:

Code: 
      Nov-08  Dec-08   % change
360     836K   1440K   + 72%
NDS    1570K   3040K   + 94%
PS2     206K    410K   + 99%
PS3     378K    726K   + 92%
PSP     421K   1020K   +142%
WII    2040K   2150K   +  5%

November Prediction Results
 
PS3 entered December with momentum. PS3 BF sales were ahead of 360. There is no reason to believe the trend did not continue into December.

I believe PS3 outsold 360 in December by at least 400K.
 
Gadfly said:
PS3 entered December with momentum. PS3 BF sales were ahead of 360. There is no reason to believe the trend did not continue into December.

I believe PS3 outsold 360 in December by at least 400K.
Click to expand...

There's one reason: supposedly the 120GB system has been having shortage.
 
[360] 1300k
[NDS] 3300k
[PS2] 400k
[PS3] 1250k
[PSP] 625k
[WII] 3100k

DS has another monster December, Wii sales up YoY (in stock, yay). PS3 would have probably been above 360 if it weren't for the shortages (which were very real for the entire month of December for my local area). Xbox 360 slightly down YoY. PS2 flat, PSP down YoY.
 
Gadfly said:
PS3 entered December with momentum. PS3 BF sales were ahead of 360. There is no reason to believe the trend did not continue into December.

I believe PS3 outsold 360 in December by at least 400K.
Click to expand...

You did great with your 360 and PS3 predictions last month so I believe you.

Gadfly November 2009 NPD Prediction said:
[360] 420k
[PS3] 950k
Click to expand...
 
Karma said:
You did great with your 360 and PS3 predictions last month so I believe you.
Click to expand...
:lol
OK, I admit I was off last month (and the month before that...)

I tend to overestimate PS3 and underestimate 360 in my predictions. After 3 years I still can't believe we are where we are. I keep looking at situation as an anomaly that would eventually correct itself.

I work for MS (not in games division) so this is not a Sony fanboy's wishful thinking.
 
Gadfly said:
:lol
OK, I admit I was off last month (and the month before that...)

I tend to overestimate PS3 and underestimate 360 in my predictions. After 3 years I still can't believe we are where we are. I keep looking at situation as an anomaly that would eventually correct itself.

I work for MS (not in games division) so this is not a Sony fanboy's wishful thinking.
Click to expand...

Is this some sort of reverse psychology where you want us to believe that the PS3 outsells the 360 handily and then when it actually doesn't it's a bigger impact if the 360 outsells the PS3?

I just don't know what to think of you :p

Anyways, on topic

[360] 1,100,000
[NDS] 2,000,000
[PS2] 154,000
[PS3] 1,050,000
[PSP] 200,000
[WII] 1,550,000
 
These are not necessarily what I think sales will look like, its just what I'm playing:


[360] 1300k
[NDS] 3600k
[PS2] 400k
[PS3] 1500k
[PSP] 600k
[WII] 3000k
 
Snipes424 said:
Is this some sort of reverse psychology where you want us to believe that the PS3 outsells the 360 handily and then when it actually doesn't it's a bigger impact if the 360 outsells the PS3?

I just don't know what to think of you :p
Click to expand...

Actually in this case I do believe the momentum is finally on PS3's side. I was not aware of supply issue so maybe the margin is less than I stated.
 
apujanata said:
Are you guys serious ? My Wii estimate is somewhere between 2.5 - 2.7M, which I believe is a tad too high (too optimistic).

If you guys are serious, I probably need to up my Wii prediction.
Click to expand...

I will be impressed if the Wii will even crack 2 million this month tbh.
 
apujanata said:
Are you guys serious ? My Wii estimate is somewhere between 2.5 - 2.7M, which I believe is a tad too high (too optimistic).

If you guys are serious, I probably need to up my Wii prediction.
Click to expand...

The Wii sold 1.26 million units in November, which is an an increase of, more or less, 150% on October 506.9k sales. Apply the same figure again and you get 3.35 million units.

Couple this with the (increased) momentum for NSMB Wii, and it is highly possible that Wii sales will be over three million for the month, if not closer to four.

In terms of weekly averages, I think you get an even higher figure, although my maths may be incorrect. October 2009 saw 126.725k Wii units sold a week, and November 2009 saw 315k units sold a week. Multiply November's figure by 12.5 (a 150% increase per week multiplied by five weeks), and you get 3.9375 million units.

Edit: I realised that the difference is because the first figure (of 3.35 million units) doesn't take into account the fact that December is a five-week month whereas November is a four-week month.
 
A lot of people are going to get burned from Wii me thinks..it should clear 2.5M pretty easily..


[360] 1400k
[NDS] 3400k
[PS2] 425k
[PS3] 1450k
[PSP] 575k
[WII] 2800k
 
Gadfly said:
I work for MS (not in games division) so this is not a Sony fanboy's wishful thinking.
Click to expand...
:lol I love how every single MS employee seems to be perpetually flabbergasted by the 360 succeeding over top the PS3.
 
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