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(Hardware) January 2010 NPD Predictions - Closes February 7

donny2112

Member
Note:
We're starting the year predicting for PS2, but if NPD drops it during the year, all PS2 results will be removed from the point totals. This is to keep months being equal to each other, as otherwise, a month with a PS2 result would be worth more than a month without a PS2 result.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 5 p.m. EST on Sunday, February 7th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: January 3-30 (4 weeks, December was 5 weeks)
NPD Release: February 11th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Format:

[360]
[NDS]
[PS2]
[PS3]
[PSP]
[WII]

Code:
Good              Bad
[NDS] 500K        [NDS] 500 thousand
[NDS] 500,000     [NDS] 500.000
[NDS] 500000      [NDS] - 500000
The Software Prediction thread is here.


Potential hardware impacting events in January:


December's Results - thanks to NPD and EviLore

EviLore said:
PlayStation 2 333.2K
PlayStation 3 1.36M
PSP 654.7K
Xbox 360 1.31M
Wii 3.81M
Nintendo DS 3.31M


NEW SUPER MARIO BROS. WII WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA Nov-09 2.82M
WII FIT PLUS* WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA Oct-09 2.41M
WII SPORTS RESORT W/ WII MOTION PLUS* WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA Jul-09 1.79M
CALL OF DUTY: MODERN WARFARE 2* 360 ACTIVISION BLIZZARD Nov-09 1.63M
CALL OF DUTY: MODERN WARFARE 2* PS3 ACTIVISION BLIZZARD Nov-09 1.12M
WII PLAY W/ REMOTE WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA Feb-07 1.01M
MARIO KART W/ WHEEL WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA Apr-08 936.1K
ASSASSIN'S CREED II 360 UBISOFT Nov-09 783.1K
LEFT 4 DEAD 2 360 ELECTRONIC ARTS Nov-09 728.5K
MARIO & LUIGI: BOWSER'S INSIDE STORY NDS NINTENDO OF AMERICA Sep-09 656.7K

(*includes CE, GOTY editions, bundles, etc. but not those bundled with hardware)

Dec-08 -> Jan-09 transition:

Code:
      Dec-08  Jan-09   % change
360    1440K    309K   - 79%
NDS    3040K    511K   - 83%
PS2     410K    101K   - 77%
PS3     726K    203K   - 72%
PSP    1020K    172K   - 83%
WII    2150K    679K   - 68%

December Prediction Results
 
Taking a stabby stab stab.


[360] 510,000
[NDS] 2,200,000
[PS2] 170,000
[PS3] 540,000
[PSP] 190,000
[WII] 3,000,000

Might be a little high, but gift-cards after the holidays carry retail sales.
 
[360] 245K
[NDS] 690K
[PS2] 70K
[PSP] 90K
[PS3] 250K
[WII] 740K


:lol at all us juniors who've been waiting to get in on this action.
 
Lotan said:
Taking a stabby stab stab.


[360] 510,000
[NDS] 2,200,000
[PS2] 170,000
[PS3] 540,000
[PSP] 190,000
[WII] 3,000,000

Might be a little high, but gift-cards after the holidays carry retail sales.

You're right, that might be a little high for January. :lol
 
Broman1978 said:
[360] 210K
[NDS] 400K
[PS2] 100K
[PS3] 250K
[PSP] 90K
[WII] 500K

You really think the 360 will only (about) double the PS2's sales in the month coming out of the holidays?
 
[360] 260K
[NDS] 500K
[PS2] 80K
[PSP] 90K
[PS3] 275K
[WII] 800K

Hmm, Wii is going to be really interesting, as Nintendo seem to be running into supply issues during January. I just checked right now, and Wii is sold out at Target, Walmart, Best Buy, Gamestop, and Amazon online. http://www.nowinstock.net/wii/ I'm going to assume that demand for wii continues to be crazy because of Mario. Let's see what happens!
 
[360] 280,000
[NDS] 650,000
[PS2] 95,000
[PS3] 375,000
[PSP] 105,000
[WII] 850,000

The Wii is the one I'm most uncertain about. It's coming out of the holiday, but this is the first time it's coming out of a holiday without shortages.
 
KuwabaraTheMan said:
The Wii is the one I'm most uncertain about. It's coming out of the holiday, but this is the first time it's coming out of a holiday without shortages.

Actually, many online sites are sold out of Wii, as well as stores in my area. Don't know how widespread the shortages are, but there definitely are shortages.
 
[360] 290,000
[NDS] 540,000
[PS2] 85,000
[PS3] 220,000
[PSP] 150,000
[WII] 630,000

I hadn't checked the November results until now, and I noticed my ranking was sixteen for that month. I feel proud :lol (didn't play in December though)
 
[360] 275.1K
[NDS] 562.7K
[PS2] 76.636K
[PS3] 380.8K
[PSP] 111.299K
[WII] 1219.2K

First time trying this: Just used last years Dec->Jan transition percentages to predict Dec 09 figures. Wii still looks way too high, but whatever.
 
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