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donny2112 · Jan 31, 2010

We're predicting for five games that I'm reasonably sure will be in the Top 10 for the month or at least get numbers for.

Games/Format:

[360 Mass Effect 2]
[360 Modern Warfare 2]
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2]
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii]
[WII Wii Sports Resort]

[Total SW $ in millions]

Code:

Good                              Bad
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 500K       [360 Modern Warfare 2] 500 thousand
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 500,000    [360 Modern Warfare 2] 500.000
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 500000     [360 Modern Warfare 2] - 500,000

The Hardware Prediction thread is here.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 5 p.m. EST on Sunday, February 7th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: January 3-30 (4 weeks, December was 5 weeks)
NPD Release: February 11th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Code:

                                Nov 2009  Dec 2009
[360 Modern Warfare 2]             4200K     1630K
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2]             1870K     1120K
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii]    1390K     2820K
[WII Wii Sports Resort]             720K     1790K

[Total SW $ in millions]           1400      2580

Number of days available for new releases:
360 Mass Effect 2 - 5 days

VegaShinra · Feb 1, 2010

[360 Mass Effect 2] 1350k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 500k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 200k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 750k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 550k

[Total SW $ in millions] 1750

Garjon · Feb 1, 2010

[360 Mass Effect 2] 1500K
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 550K
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 290K
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1100K
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 300K

[Total SW $ in millions] 1490

apujanata · Feb 1, 2010

donny,

What is the result for S/W Dec 2009 ? The search was disabled, so I couldn't search for it.

botticus · Feb 1, 2010

[360 Mass Effect 2] 1100k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 400k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 275k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 800k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 500k

[Total SW $ in millions] 1250

donny2112 · Feb 1, 2010

apujanata said:
The search was disabled, so I couldn't search for it.

Go to Google and search for the hardware thread title for December. The link to the software thread (and results) is in the OP of the hardware thread.

http://tinyurl.com/ycp3xog

wizword · Feb 1, 2010

[360 Mass Effect 2] 800k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 600k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 400k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1300k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 400k

[Total SW $ in millions] 1300k

andy_lhc · Feb 2, 2010

[360 Mass Effect 2] 550K
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 370K
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 280K
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 900K
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 380K

[Total SW $ in millions] 650

WaltJay · Feb 2, 2010

[360 Mass Effect 2] 1100K
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 500K
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 200K
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 650K
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 310K

[Total SW $ in millions] 1250

Aaron Strife · Feb 2, 2010

[360 Mass Effect 2] 1200k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 450k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 180k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 850k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 370k

[Total SW $ in millions] 1400

donny2112 · Feb 3, 2010

[360 Mass Effect 2] 500K
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 400K
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 300K
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1000K
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 400K

[Total SW $ in millions] 650

user_nat · Feb 3, 2010

Why do people expect ME2 to do over 1m?
It only shipped 2m worldwide across 2 platforms. Remember Fallout 3 shipped like 5m and only sold ~500k first month. I do hope it sells that much though.

[360 Mass Effect 2] 790k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 400k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 250k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 650k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 370k

[Total SW $ in millions] 850

Really late edit: Forgot total SW$
Random note: Another game that should be interesting is Army of Two. The first sold very well in it's first month. Although it does seem that the sequel won't.

rikitikitik · Feb 3, 2010

[360 Mass Effect 2] 876k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 449k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 216k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 673k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 294k
[Total SW $ in millions] 811

boontje · Feb 4, 2010

[360 Mass Effect 2] 575k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 310k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 225k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 800k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 350k

[Total SW $ in millions] 675

apujanata · Feb 6, 2010

[360 Mass Effect 2] 650K
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 300K
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 205K
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 700K
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 350K

[Total SW $ in millions] 680

Looking at other people's prediction, Why is everyone so high on NSMB Wii ?
Boontje 850K,
donny2112 1000K,
and_lhc 900K
botticus 800K

Is there something I don't know about NSMB Wii (other that it's faboulous Dec 09 #) ?

Hammer24 · Feb 6, 2010

[360 Mass Effect 2] 755K
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 315K
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 215K
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 705K
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 405K

[Total SW $ in millions] 725

starship · Feb 6, 2010

[360 Mass Effect 2] 600k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 450k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 250k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 800k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 500k

[Total SW $ in millions] 720

boontje · Feb 7, 2010

apujanata said:
[360 Mass Effect 2] 650K

Looking at other people's prediction, Why is everyone so high on NSMB Wii ?
Boontje 850K,
donny2112 1000K,
and_lhc 900K
botticus 800K

Is there something I don't know about NSMB Wii (other that it's faboulous Dec 09 #) ?

Personally I put it pretty high because of there were enough signs of the game having shortages in December. This pend up demand coupled with the 2.8 million units sold in December puts my prediction for the title that high for January (although I adjusted it slightly downward)

seady · Feb 7, 2010

[360 Mass Effect 2] 700K
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 450K
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 320K
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 770K
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 420K

[Total SW $ in millions] 1000

rostocker · Feb 7, 2010

[360 Mass Effect 2] 780K
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 465K
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 230K
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 822K
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 500K

[Total SW $ in millions] 790

The_lascar · Feb 7, 2010

[360 Mass Effect 2] 800k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 310k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 200k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 900k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 530k

[Total SW $ in millions] 790

nextgeneration · Feb 7, 2010

[360 Mass Effect 2] 1100k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 275k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 125k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 650k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 475k

[Total SW $ in millions] 750

timetokill · Feb 7, 2010

I don't normally partake in the software side. Let's give it a shot.

[360 Mass Effect 2] 690k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 380k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 180k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 720k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 440k

[Total SW $ in millions] 830

Christine · Feb 7, 2010

[360 Mass Effect 2] 1,067,000
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 392,000
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 284,000
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1,010,000
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 501,000

[Total SW $ in millions] 1347

apujanata · Feb 7, 2010

boontje said:
Personally I put it pretty high because of there were enough signs of the game having shortages in December. This pend up demand coupled with the 2.8 million units sold in December puts my prediction for the title that high for January (although I adjusted it slightly downward)

Ok. Thanks for the reply. I forgot about the shortage in Dec, and your reason is certainly very logical.

I changed my figure from 600K to 700K, since getting 800K+ is too optimistic to me. Of course, I also predicted only 2.3 Million sales in Dec, so I could be having another underestimation for this month. If NSMB Wii got another 1 Million in US this month, I can certainly see it getting 30 Million or even 35 Million WW.

What is the WW record of SNES & NES Mario ? I remember seeing a chart of it before, but I couldn't find it in my PC.

Danthrax · Feb 7, 2010

[360 Mass Effect 2] 800k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 535k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 275k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 980k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 695k

[Total SW $ in millions] 1590

I think January's overall sales will be better than a lot of people here seem to expect.

Frillen · Feb 7, 2010

[360 Mass Effect 2] 720k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 520k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2]320k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 780k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 350k

[Total SW $ in millions] 730

Road · Feb 7, 2010

[360 Mass Effect 2] 700,000
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 390,000
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 250,000
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 750,000
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 444,000

[Total SW $ in millions] 700,000

dolemite · Feb 7, 2010

[360 Mass Effect 2] 800,000
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 500,000
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 250,000
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 400,000
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 500,000

[Total SW $ in millions] 700,000

Brakara · Feb 7, 2010

[360 Mass Effect 2] 750k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 350k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 200k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 600k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 400k

[Total SW $ in millions] 700

RBH · Feb 7, 2010

[360 Mass Effect 2] 650k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 500k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 250k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 750k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 450k

[Total SW $ in millions] 700

Jesse2040 · Feb 7, 2010

[360 Mass Effect 2] 650k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 300k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 200k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 550k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 350k

[Total SW $ in millions] 650

KuwabaraTheMan · Feb 7, 2010

[360 Mass Effect 2] 850,000
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 350,000
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 200,000
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 900,000
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 450,000

[Total SW $ in millions] 750

apujanata · Feb 12, 2010

[360 Mass Effect 2] 650K vs 572.1K = 77.9K off
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 300K vs 326.7K = 26.7K off
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 205K vs 259K = 54K off
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 700K vs 656.7K = 43.3K off
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 350K vs 297.6K = 52.4K off

[Total SW $ in millions] 680

Very slight beneficial effect by changing my NSMBW prediction from 600K to 700K

andy_lhc · Feb 12, 2010

andy_lhc said:
[360 Mass Effect 2] 550K
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 370K
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 280K
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 900K
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 380K

[Total SW $ in millions] 650

[360 Mass Effect 2] Off 22.1k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] Off 43.3k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] Off 21k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] Off 243.3k

[WII Wii Sports Resort] Off 82.4k

user_nat · Feb 12, 2010

user_nat said:
[360 Mass Effect 2] 790k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 400k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 250k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 650k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 370k

[Total SW $ in millions] 850

Actuals:
MASS EFFECT 2 572.1K
MODERN WARFARE 2 360 326.7K
MODERN WARFARE 2 PS3 259.0K
NEW SUPER MARIO BROS. WII 656.7K
SPORTS RESORT 297.6K

So I was off by 379.3. Thanks to Mass Effect mainly, and I was one of the low ones for it :lol

Danthrax · Feb 12, 2010

[hides head in shame]

The only one I was REMOTELY close on was PS3 Modern Warfare 2, which I was off by about 16k on.

I was off by a combined 1.14 million units or so on all the other games :lol I'll be shocked if I'm not in last place this month!

Garjon · Feb 12, 2010

With the exceptions of WSR and MW2 PS3, I was miles away from the actual data

donny2112 · Feb 13, 2010

January 2010 NPD Software Prediction Results

Code:

     January 2010
1.   Jesse2040          94.32
2.   andy_lhc           92.01
3.   boontje            88.37
4.   apujanata          86.63
5.   donny2112          82.49
6.   user_nat           82.13
7.   Hammer24           80.8
8.   Brakara            79.19
9.   Road               78.28
10.  rikitikitik        77.83
11.  timetokill         75.02
12.  RBH                72.89
13.  starship           72.82
14.  seady              71.59
15.  Frillen            71.01
16.  GAF Average        70.88
17.  KuwabaraTheMan     66.65
18.  WaltJay            65.34
19.  The_lascar         63.43
20.  rostocker          63.39
21.  dolemite           59.31
22.  botticus           57.86
23.  nextgeneration     55.91
24.  Aaron Strife       55.6
25.  TwinIonEngines     52.34
26.  Garjon             50.27
27.  Danthrax           48.2
28.  VegaShinra         45.03
29.  wizword            37.94
30.

Congratulations, Jesse2040/EEDAR!

dolemite · Feb 13, 2010

lame

andy_lhc · Feb 13, 2010

I'm at 2nd place....

But I didnt even crack Top 50 in the Hardware results..

boontje · Feb 13, 2010

I did better here than with hardware. Ah well, there's always next month.

apujanata · Feb 13, 2010

Congrats, Jesse Divnich.

Compared to Jan 2009, I am doing much better in H/W prediction, but slightly worse in S/W prediction.

If I didn't predict 680 for Total S/W, but 650 for Total S/W (just like my original rough prediction), I would have gotten the 10 point bonus.

Jesse2040 · Feb 14, 2010

Thanks.

I didn't participate in 2009, but I hope to win in 2010.

I should get Pachter to participate.

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