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donny2112 · Feb 28, 2010

We're predicting for five games that I'm reasonably sure will be in the Top 10 for the month or at least get numbers for.

Games/Format:

[360 Bioshock 2]
[360 Mass Effect 2]
[360 Modern Warfare 2]
[PS3 Bioshock 2]
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii]

[Total SW $ in millions]

Code:

Good                              Bad
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 300K       [360 Modern Warfare 2] 300 thousand
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 300,000    [360 Modern Warfare 2] 300.000
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 300000     [360 Modern Warfare 2] - 300,000

The Hardware Prediction thread is here.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 5 p.m. EST on Sunday, March 7th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: January 31-February 27th (4 weeks, January was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: March 11th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Code:

                                Dec 2009  Jan 2009
[360 Mass Effect 2]                  ---      572K
[360 Modern Warfare 2]             1630K      327K
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii]    2820K      657K

[Total SW $ in millions]           2580       598

Number of days available for new releases:
360/PS3 Bioshock 2 - 19 days

user_nat · Mar 3, 2010

With no other predictions so far, I'm liking my chances

[360 Bioshock 2] 500k
[360 Mass Effect 2] 300k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 250k
[PS3 Bioshock 2] 249k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 550k

[Total SW $ in millions] 580

WaltJay · Mar 3, 2010

[360 Bioshock 2] 400k
[360 Mass Effect 2] 350k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 200k
[PS3 Bioshock 2] 200k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 500k

[Total SW $ in millions] 567

seady · Mar 3, 2010

[360 Bioshock 2] 320K
[360 Mass Effect 2] 200K
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 260K
[PS3 Bioshock 2] 210K
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 470K

[Total SW $ in millions] 420

Baki · Mar 3, 2010

No Heavy Rain?

UbiSoftologist · Mar 3, 2010

I'd like to add Heavy Rain and Dante's Inferno to my Top-10 prediction:

1. [360 BioShock 2] 600K
2. [PS3 Heavy Rain] 400K
3. [Wii New Super Mario Bros] 320K
4. [360 Mass Effect 2] 250K
5. [Wii Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board] 230K
6. [360 Dante's Inferno] 220K
7. [PS3 BioShock 2] 200K
8. [PS3 Dante's Inferno] 180K
9. [360 CoD: Modern Warfare 2] 170K
10. [Wii Mario Kart with Wheel] 160K

donny2112 · Mar 3, 2010

Baki said:
No Heavy Rain?

Being sold out doesn't necessarily mean it sold a lot. I consider it more likely that Mass Effect 2 and MW2 (360) will make the Top 10, but Heavy Rain could still be there, too.

confuziz · Mar 4, 2010

[360 Bioshock 2] 550k
[360 Mass Effect 2] 350k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 225k
[PS3 Bioshock 2] 230k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 480k

[Total SW $ in millions] 700

Danthrax · Mar 4, 2010

[360 Bioshock 2] 750k
[360 Mass Effect 2] 290k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 245k
[PS3 Bioshock 2] 475k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 460k

[Total SW $ in millions] 480

Looks like my Bioshock predictions are pretty ballsy compared to the people above me. I'm new to predicting software, though, so I'm probably shooting myself in the foot here :lol

boontje · Mar 4, 2010

[360 Bioshock 2] 575k
[360 Mass Effect 2] 285k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 240k
[PS3 Bioshock 2] 250k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 480k

[Total SW $ in millions] 575

Garjon · Mar 4, 2010

[360 Bioshock 2] 450K
[360 Mass Effect 2] 200K
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 326K
[PS3 Bioshock 2] 250K
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 450K

[Total SW $ in millions] 550

donny2112 · Mar 5, 2010

[360 Bioshock 2] 400K
[360 Mass Effect 2] 200K
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 250K
[PS3 Bioshock 2] 150K
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 500K

[Total SW $ in millions] 490

KuwabaraTheMan · Mar 5, 2010

[360 Bioshock 2] 450,000
[360 Mass Effect 2] 300,000
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 150,000
[PS3 Bioshock 2] 240,000
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 580,000

[Total SW $ in millions] 500

dolemite · Mar 5, 2010

[360 Bioshock 2] 700k
[360 Mass Effect 2] 300k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 300k
[PS3 Bioshock 2] 400k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 400k

[Total SW $ in dollars] 700

Hammer24 · Mar 5, 2010

[360 Bioshock 2] 475K
[360 Mass Effect 2] 225K
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 195K
[PS3 Bioshock 2] 155K
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 485K

[Total SW $ in millions] 535

botticus · Mar 5, 2010

[360 Bioshock 2] 400k
[360 Mass Effect 2] 200k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 250k
[PS3 Bioshock 2] 250k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 500k

[Total SW $ in millions] 570

*looks at own predictions*
*looks above at donny's predictions*
donny, your predictions are terrible.

andy_lhc · Mar 5, 2010

[360 Bioshock 2] 430K
[360 Mass Effect 2] 225K
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 260K
[PS3 Bioshock 2] 190K
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 510K

[Total SW $ in millions] 550

perfectchaos007 · Mar 5, 2010

[360 Bioshock 2] 500K
[360 Mass Effect 2] 300K
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 270K
[PS3 Bioshock 2] 350K
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 500K

[Total SW $ in millions] 645

Blast Processing · Mar 5, 2010

[360 Bioshock 2] 450K
[360 Mass Effect 2] 300K
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 250K
[PS3 Bioshock 2] 300K
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 600K

[Total SW $ in millions] 300

The_lascar · Mar 7, 2010

[360 Bioshock 2] 600K
[360 Mass Effect 2] 200K
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 270K
[PS3 Bioshock 2] 300K
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 480K

[Total SW $ in millions] 550

rostocker · Mar 7, 2010

[360 Bioshock 2] 560k
[360 Mass Effect 2] 333k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 220k
[PS3 Bioshock 2] 252k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 512k

[Total SW $ in millions] 550

And just for fun:
[PS3 Heavy Rain] 160k

starship · Mar 7, 2010

[360 Bioshock 2] 550k
[360 Mass Effect 2] 180k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 180k
[PS3 Bioshock 2] 300k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 600k

[Total SW $ in millions] 550

Road · Mar 7, 2010

[360 Bioshock 2] 466K
[360 Mass Effect 2] 266k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 266K
[PS3 Bioshock 2] 266K
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 466K

[Total SW $ in millions] 566

Baki · Mar 7, 2010

[360 Bioshock 2] 490K
[360 Mass Effect 2] 440K
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 210K
[PS3 Bioshock 2] 320K
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 410K
[PS3 Heavy Rain] 210K
[Total SW $ in millions] 550

timetokill · Mar 7, 2010

[360 Bioshock 2] 440k
[360 Mass Effect 2] 260k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 220k
[PS3 Bioshock 2] 210k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 460k

[Total SW $ in millions] 560

I don't think Heavy Rain charts, or breaks 150k

RBH · Mar 7, 2010

[360 Bioshock 2] 600k
[360 Mass Effect 2] 410k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 300k
[PS3 Bioshock 2] 350k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 475k

[Total SW $ in millions] 650

Jesse2040 · Mar 7, 2010

[360 Bioshock 2] 580k
[360 Mass Effect 2] 375k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 275k
[PS3 Bioshock 2] 240k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 450k

[Total SW $ in millions] 590

Brakara · Mar 7, 2010

[360 Bioshock 2] 450k
[360 Mass Effect 2] 150k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 170k
[PS3 Bioshock 2] 200k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 500k

[Total SW $ in millions] 550

apujanata · Mar 8, 2010

[360 Bioshock 2] 480K
[360 Mass Effect 2] 350K
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 220K
[PS3 Bioshock 2] 240K
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 480K

[Total SW $ in millions] 610

Kifimbo · Mar 11, 2010

NPD Canada indeed hit today. PlayStation 3 wins the month, finishes in first. 4 out of the top 7 software titles are ps3 (2 360, 1 Wii)

http://twitter.com/THEKyleMoffatt/status/10341885810

Gadfly · Mar 11, 2010

Kifimbo said:
http://twitter.com/THEKyleMoffatt/status/10341885810

why does it talk about 4 out of top 7 and not top 10?

AdventureRacing · Mar 11, 2010

Kifimbo said:
http://twitter.com/THEKyleMoffatt/status/10341885810

Now imagine if there wasn't a shortage!

Brakara · Mar 19, 2010

No results? We got all the numbers...

donny2112 · Mar 19, 2010

Brakara said:
No results? We got all the numbers...

D'oh! I keep forgetting to do this. I'll try to get to it this weekend. Thanks for the prodding!

Baki · Mar 21, 2010

donny2112 said:
D'oh! I keep forgetting to do this. I'll try to get to it this weekend. Thanks for the prodding!

Are you going to include Heavy Rain. Thats the only one I nailed. :lol

EDIT:

[360 Bioshock 2] -73K
[360 Mass Effect 2] +193K
[360 Modern Warfare 2] +104.3K
[PS3 Bioshock 2] -110K
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] -145K
[PS3 Heavy Rain] -10K

Really overshot ME2 and underestimated COD: MW 2 severely. Also NSMB Wii as well.

donny2112 · Mar 21, 2010

February 2010 NPD Software Prediction Results

Code:

     February 2010               Overall 2010
1.   user_nat           92.99    Jesse2040           181.78
2.   boontje            92.75    boontje             181.12
3.   Road               90.75    andy_lhc            180.39
4.   andy_lhc           88.38    user_nat            175.12
5.   botticus           88.1     Road                169.03
6.   Jesse2040          87.47    donny2112           162.58
7.   WaltJay            85.54    Hammer24            162.08
8.   timetokill         83.05    timetokill          158.07
9.   perfectchaos007    81.86    Brakara             155.17
10.  Garjon             81.42    GAF Average         151.72
11.  Hammer24           81.27    WaltJay             150.89
12.  GAF Average        80.84    seady               150.61
13.  donny2112          80.09    RBH                 147.75
14.  UbiSoftologist     79.74    botticus            145.96
15.  seady              79.01    starship            145.32
16.  rostocker          78.85    rostocker           142.24
17.  confuziz           78.59    KuwabaraTheMan      141.77
18.  The_lascar         77.87    The_lascar          141.3
19.  Brakara            75.98    Garjon              131.7
20.  KuwabaraTheMan     75.12    dolemite            123.59
21.  RBH                74.86    Danthrax            110.17
22.  Blast Processing   74.46    apujanata            86.63
23.  starship           72.51    perfectchaos007      81.86
24.  dolemite           64.28    UbiSoftologist       79.74
25.  Danthrax           61.97    confuziz             78.59
26.  Baki               56.24    rikitikitik          77.83
27.                              Blast Processing     74.46
28.                              Frillen              71.01
29.                              Baki                 56.24
30.                              nextgeneration       55.91

Congratulations, user_nat! You didn't end up being the only one to predict, but you still finished on top.

Baki · Mar 21, 2010

Lol. I'm last. :lol

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