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The 2012 Florida Republican Primary: Draw Guns at Sundown in the Sunshine State

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AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!


The Candidates:

Mitt Romney
cL020.jpg

"The idea that I overpaid on my taxes has brought tears to my bionic ocular implants."

Newt Gingrich
j6xKD.jpg

"Now let me be very clear, I am stalling in hopes that what I say will make the moderator and all of my supporters look stupid. "

Rick Santorum
08zJY.jpg

"You know what is on my finger? Hint: it rhymes with scrantorum."

Ron Paul
wHqIt.jpg

"Already legalized it."


Logistics of the Florida Primary:
The 2012 Florida Republican Primary, set earlier this year than in election cycles past, makes this contest the first big state to basically crown the next presidential nominee. Florida has chosen the Republican nominee each time since Gerald Ford; the Democratic primary chose Hilary Clinton over Barack Obama in 2008 by 17%, despite donors from Florida donating twice as much to Obama's campaign!

Florida decided to hold their primary so early in order to gain more prestige, candidate spending, and national focus, but they did so without the GOP's permission, which ends up costing the state half of their delegates, down to 50 from 99.

Immigrants are a very interesting part of the primary, as Cuban-born and descended immigrants favor the Republican party nearly 2-1 over Democratic presidential nominees. Immigrants and descendants from other Latin American countries continue to support Democrats on a much wider scale than Republicans.

2008 Results:
IsoE7.png



Current projections as of January 30th, per Nate Silver of the New York Times, which takes a weighted average of different polls. These numbers are shown to be some of the most accurate:
hps9W.png



Hot-Button Issues:

Illegal Immigration - None of the candidates support the DREAM Act, with only Gingrich and Romney stating that they would support an altered form narrowing the focus to service in the military, and not to those illegal immigrants who go to college and get degrees.

NASA - Gingrich is all for moon bases, space travel, building up NASA again like the good old days. The rest of the candidates do not see the merit in putting too much government funding into NASA. Mitt Romney also stated that relying on private enterprise to fund space travel will probably never result in anything, as their is no reason for any corporation to dedicate hundreds of millions of dollars into space travel, construction, and industry.

Finances and Taxes - Romney has been under constant attack for his time at Bain Capital, his low tax percentage relative to his income, his accounts in Switzerland, the Caymans, and his large donations to the Mormon Church. Gingrich supports cutting capital gains to zero, in the hopes that it would spur all to invest (but would obviously benefit the most wealthy on a grand scale). Romney supports cutting capital gains down to zero for everyone that makes less than $250,000/year, while also reducing the percentage on higher levels.

Negativity - This has been called by nearly every pundit, reporter, election insider, and talk radio host, the most heated and negative campaign ever run. Almost all of the negativity surrounds Romney's individual mandate in Massachusetts that he enacted while governor in 2006, his personal wealth and tax returns, and his time at Bain Capital. Ads targeting Gingrich have focused on his time as a "historian" for Freddie Mac, in which he received large sums to advise them on historical situations, his multiple divorces, marital infidelity, asking his second wife for an open marriage, and sanctions placed on him for ethics violations while Speaker of the House in the mid-90's. Santorum and Paul have been relatively quiet both in the debates, and on the negativity front.

anything I am missing or am incorrect on, let me know.


Polls open: 7 am
Polls close: 7 pm

Results should start pouring in shortly thereafter.
 

ToxicAdam

Member
My only interest in this primary is to see how many early votes went Romney's way. If Gingrich holds close with those that vote tomorrow, that could be a big story.
 

ronito

Member
My only interest in this primary is to see how many early votes went Romney's way. If Gingrich holds close with those that vote tomorrow, that could be a big story.

Agreed.

If Romney can't hold Florida with a respectable margin that's sorta big. Of course, if you believe the polls it should be a Romney landslide.
 

Jackson50

Member
My only interest in this primary is to see how many early votes went Romney's way. If Gingrich holds close with those that vote tomorrow, that could be a big story.
According to PPP he has a substantial lead. Although, I haven't parsed the other polls, so this could be an outlier.
One thing Romney did a great job of was getting his voters out early. With the third of the electorate who have already cast their ballots he leads 45-32. That means Gingrich would have to win election day voters by somewhere in the 6-8 point range to pull off the Florida upset, but we find that Romney still has a 36-30 advantage with those are waiting to vote tomorrow.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/01/romney-headed-for-florida-victory.html
 

Mike M

Nick N
So my understanding is that FL is winner-take-all for delegates... Except as part of the punishment for going early, the RNC told them that they couldn't do that... Except FL doesn't like that and wants WTA regardless...

Going to be interesting to see how that plays out, you'd THINK that'd be something completely clarified prior to the actual vote.
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
So my understanding is that FL is winner-take-all for delegates... Except as part of the punishment for going early, the RNC told them that they couldn't do that... Except FL doesn't like that and wants WTA regardless...

Going to be interesting to see how that plays out, you'd THINK that'd be something completely clarified prior to the actual vote.
Interesting. I thought that it was pretty much settled that it is winner take all.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
So, is it winner takes all or not?
Or will we not know till the convention because of in-fighting.
 

Mike M

Nick N
So, is it winner takes all or not?
Or will we not know till the convention because of in-fighting.

From what I can gather, the RNC is letting them proceed with the WTA allocation of delegates, but it's apparently not in accordance with the rules. So someone (Gingrich) can file a complaint with the RNC about it, and may potentially force them to allocate proportionately.

Or something.

Because you can't spell "electoral clusterfuck" without "Florida."
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
My only interest in this primary is to see how many early votes went Romney's way. If Gingrich holds close with those that vote tomorrow, that could be a big story.

Yeah, that's what most reporters are saying will be the important issue. Not whether if Romney wins, but if so, by how much.
 
So, is it winner takes all or not?
Or will we not know till the convention because of in-fighting.

Winner takes all, I think we're at a point where the GOP just wants to get this over with. It likely won't go to a brokered convention, no matter how much Newt wants it and how much Palin wanted to "rage against the machine", there's going to be way too much pressure on Newt to last all the way to the end.

Newt is simply not an electable candidate, he's just too eager to turn on everybody, that and his physical attributes aren't appealing enough to the masses which is his biggest problem, hopefully the money will dry up for Newt after Florida, Santorum was never going to be a factor in the long run but Newt in his desperation wouldn't hesitate to blow everything up.
 
Epic OP. Question, why do Cubans favor the republicans party by such a wide margin? Does it have to do with the anti commie and socialisme spin? In really confused by it, but don't know enough about Cubans in the US enough to perhaps see the simple explanation. Is it a case of immigrants and descendants of immigrants hating on the new generation of immigrants because they feel they make them look bad? Did the democratic party ever do anything big that alienated then? It seems so weird that people would support a party that's trying to keep others from having the same opportunities that you or your parents had.
 
IsoE7.png


Interesting to see how many candidates were in the game last time vs this time.

And also, Ron Paul with 4x the support he had last time.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Was just watching Hardball, and they showed a gallup poll that had Newt winning against Romney nationally. If Newt gets destroyed in Florida tomorrow, hopefully he'll decide to stick to the very end.
 

IrishNinja

Member
Epic OP. Question, why do Cubans favor the republicans party by such a wide margin? Does it have to do with the anti commie and socialisme spin? In really confused by it, but don't know enough about Cubans in the US enough to perhaps see the simple explanation. Is it a case of immigrants and descendants of immigrants hating on the new generation of immigrants because they feel they make them look bad? Did the democratic party ever do anything big that alienated then? It seems so weird that people would support a party that's trying to keep others from having the same opportunities that you or your parents had.

Clevinger fielded the first part, but to your 2nd bit on immigration (and mind you, this is anecdotal and all, but holy shit it's been a constant in my time here): there's a huge divide between 2nd generation cubans living here and those trying to come over. those here seem to see the refugees as just wanting to leave the awful socialism their families fled from (not all having made it, natch) but squander resources here and not work/try to advance. again, just my experience, but nobody i've ever met is as racist towards actual cubans as miami cubans, it's interesting to see.

as an aside: there's a nicaraguan segment in the section of dade i live in who, while often socially somewhat liberal as well, tend to vote republican because of reagan's actions during the sandinista revolution. i don't agree with either group, but i can kind've follow the logic, anyway.

Was just watching Hardball, and they showed a gallup poll that had Newt winning against Romney nationally. If Newt gets destroyed in Florida tomorrow, hopefully he'll decide to stick to the very end.

as ever, my finger's not on the pulse, but...sanotorum still lingering around is confusing enough; by what metric is gingrich considered electable?
 
edit: Thanks for the insights irishninja. The disliking of more recent immigrants by past immigrants and their children is definitely real at times. It's funny, yet sad too.

It's your standard "I've got mine, fuck you" cornerstone of the republican party.

But that's not all, the other major pillar of the GOP is "vote against own interests" so you get the one-two punch with the miami cubans

1) Fuck everyone else, they got what they wanted
2) Vote for the party that hates other languages and brow people

It's the definition of being a republican.
 
It's your standard "I've got mine, fuck you" cornerstone of the republican party.

But that's not all, the other major pillar of the GOP is "vote against own interests" so you get the one-two punch with the miami cubans

1) Fuck everyone else, they got what they wanted
2) Vote for the party that hates other languages and brow people

It's the definition of being a republican.

Remember, a lot of Cubans consider themselves white.

Unlike those Central and South American savages.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
It's sad to see Newt doing so bad in Florida. I mean, come on, Republicans were afraid to made tea baggers mad by being unwilling to destroy the global economy just last Summer. Yet here they are standing up to them. Never thought I'd see the day.
 

Zzoram

Member
It sucks that Romney is going in with such a lead, no nail biting finish.

Also, it sucks that Romney is going to be the candidate, Gingrich would be much funnier. Romney is too serious.
 

WillyFive

Member
Maybe after this we'll stop seeing billions of Romney signs randomly placed anywhere there is grass in the state. They are a menace to the last non-artificial parts of Florida.
 

Miletius

Member
I'm just wondering how much Newt is gonna get blown out by, and how does that translate nationally. I also expect that Santorum will drop out after Florida, especially since it seems that he's running into financial trouble. I guess we will see though, will be an interesting day.
 

Jackson50

Member
I'm just wondering how much Newt is gonna get blown out by, and how does that translate nationally. I also expect that Santorum will drop out after Florida, especially since it seems that he's running into financial trouble. I guess we will see though, will be an interesting day.
Barring an unexpectedly close outcome, Mitt's national position will improve significantly. Iowa and NH propelled him to nearly 40%. And unlike the debates in SC, there shouldn't be an impediment to his momentum. Henceforth begins his inexorable victory.
 

Krowley

Member
Barring an unexpectedly close outcome, Mitt's national position will improve significantly. Iowa and NH propelled him to nearly 40%. And unlike the debates in SC, there shouldn't be an impediment to his momentum. Henceforth begins his inexorable victory.

If Santorum drops out, don't most of his people go to Newt, and would that be enough to put him over the top for good?

I think most people who are voting for Santorum are definitely not going to switch to Romney at this point. Some of them might stay home rather than voting for Newt, but others probably won't.
 

VALIS

Member
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/...mney_n_1244284.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000009

LAKELAND, Fla. -- The Newt Gingrich campaign has a robocall out in Florida claiming that Mitt Romney once took kosher food away from Holocaust survivors.

The allegation made in the call, obtained by anti-robocall activist Shaun Dakin, is undoubtedly targeted at Florida's large Jewish and elderly populations.

The text of the call:

As governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney vetoed a bill paying for kosher food for our seniors in nursing homes. Holocaust survivors, who for the first time, were forced to eat non-kosher, because Romney thought $5 was too much to pay for our grandparents to eat kosher. Where is Mitt Romney's compassion for our seniors? Tuesday you can end Mitt Romney's hypocrisy on religious freedom, with a vote for Newt Gingrich. Paid for by Newt 2012.

My god, he is such a fucking puke. He's actually got me rooting for Mittens at this point. (besides which, I think Obama beats Mitt fairly easily)
 

Jackson50

Member
If Santorum drops out, don't most of his people go to Newt, and would that be enough to put him over the top for good?

I think most people who are voting for Santorum are definitely not going to switch to Romney at this point. Some of them might stay home rather than voting for Newt, but others probably won't.
Certainly, that's Newt's hope. And he's been promoting that premise. But the crosstabs suggest otherwise. According to the recent polls in FL, Mitt trumps Newt as the second choice for Santorum's voters. Moreover, his advantage will increase after he wins tonight. I don't see a compelling reason for Santorum's voters to shun Mitt.
The results start coming in after 7pm right?
8 ET/7 CT.
 
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