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October 2012 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 5

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donny2112

Member
What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Monday, November 5th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: September 30-October 27 (4 weeks, September was 5 weeks)
NPD Release: November 8th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST

IMPORTANT: As of May 2012's results, NPD is now directly including Wal-Mart data in their totals. Previously they were only estimating for Wal-Mart, so there could be some significant changes in relative performance compared to previous years.

Format:

[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PSV]
[WII]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[360] 300K        [360] 300 thousand
[360] 300,000     [360] 300.000
[360] 300000      [360] - 300000


Potential hardware impacting events in October:
Initially stealth but officially announced 4-days later, 360 $50 price drop on all but Arcade standalone @ ~Oct. 14 - 14 days
Wii new bundle @ $130 trickling into stores fully by Oct. 28 @ ~Oct. 15 - 13 days (not widely available until after October NPD period ends)
Pokemon Black 2/White 2 @ Oct. 7 - DS > 3DS this month? :lol

September's Results - thanks to jvm and "a variety of angles"

jvm said:
Based on a variety of angles, my estimates for hardware:
Xbox 360: 270K
3DS: 240K
PS3: 200K
NDS: 130K
Wii: 80K
PSV: 55K
PSP: 5K

As usual, my estimates posted here are rounded to the nearest multiple of 5K. I do not have access to NPD's official figures.
Click to expand...

September 2011 NPD thread
October 2011 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
Some notes from last Nintendo's Investor Briefing.

Although the sales of the hardware have increased after the launch of the Nintendo 3DS XL system, the U.S. was the only market out of the three regions in which the sales boost did not exceed that of last year’s markdown. Sales almost recovered to the level of the previous year in September and Nintendo 3DS has performed better in October. We are working hard to further develop the sales.
Click to expand...

NOTE: Unclear if that "better" is referred to just September or to October 2011, given Iwata compared sales between September 2011 and September 2012

The release of "Pokémon Black Version 2" and "Pokémon White Version 2" in the U.S. and Europe this month raised the sales level of the Nintendo 3DS hardware and has accelerated the trend towards the year-end. [...] They have therefore worked to boost the Nintendo 3DS sales even in the U.S. where Nintendo DSi has been sold relatively well. We consider them important products to boost the momentum of Nintendo 3DS. This is for Nintendo DS, but this is a big difference from October last year when we had a hard time to keep the sales momentum.
Click to expand...

Hoping these quotes can help.
 
@donny2112: Would you mind adding a link the next time you update the NPD Prediction Thread Archive? It's easy to find these threads with a Google search, but a link would be even easier.
 
Thanks, Mpl90. Wasn't sure how to include that part about October sales for 3DS, so figured it was best to just leave it out of the OP. Glad it was posted, though. :)

archnemesis said:
@donny2112: Would you mind adding a link the next time you update the NPD Prediction Thread Archive? It's easy to find these threads with a Google search, but a link would be even easier.
Click to expand...

You're referring to the archive thread? If so, the OP in that thread gets updated when it's posted in, but can repeat the link in the actual bump post, if that would make it easier. Just let me know if you're talking about the archive thread post or something else.
 
Can't see 360 getting a lower marketshare this month (49%) with a $50 price cut for two weeks ...

[360] 330k
[3DS] 280k
[PSV] 40k
[PS3] 180k
[WII] 60k
 
[360] 235k
[3DS] 280k
[PSV] 35k
[PS3] 175k
[WII] 65k

Don't think the 360 cut will make that much difference to overall numbers instead just skew the percentages towards the more expensive ones
 
frankie_baby said:
Don't think the 360 cut will make that much difference to overall numbers instead just skew the percentages towards the more expensive ones
Click to expand...

You actually expect no bump whatsoever with those predictions, bit foolish really, it's already been proven the cheapest model isn't the most popular by ASP, and it's a 360 price cut in USA for goodness sakes. Obviously it's gonna get a bump.

Also what should be beared in mind, PS3 and Wii were moreorless flat YOY last October, 360 (without a price cut) went up 20%.
 
Dynopia said:
MS made an announcement
Click to expand...

Oh, didn't realize they had ever officially announced it. (link) Will update OP. Thanks!

Dynopia said:
it's already been proven the cheapest model isn't the most popular by ASP,
Click to expand...

No, it hasn't. It's proven that the 250GB+Kinect previously $400 model is not the most popular, since the ASP is < $300, but there's nothing to say that it's not 4GB > (4GB+Kinect or 250 GB) > 250GB+Kinect.
 
donny2112 said:
Oh, didn't realize they had ever officially announced it. (link) Will update OP. Thanks!



No, it hasn't. It's proven that the 250GB+Kinect previously $400 model is not the most popular, since the ASP is < $300, but there's nothing to say that it's not 4GB > (4GB+Kinect or 250 GB) > 250GB+Kinect.
Click to expand...

I dunno why I said it's the least popular, what I meant was it's not the most popular, his line of thinking is silly anyway IMO.
 
Dynopia said:
You actually expect no bump whatsoever with those predictions, bit foolish really, it's already been proven the cheapest model isn't the most popular by ASP, and it's a 360 price cut in USA for goodness sakes. Obviously it's gonna get a bump.

Also what should be beared in mind, PS3 and Wii were moreorless flat YOY last October, 360 (without a price cut) went up 20%.
Click to expand...

Actually I do predict a small bump, last month was 5 weeks this month only 4 so I do predict average weekly sales to increase, also there are several bundles of 360 so its actually difficult to say using asp which is actually most popular
 
frankie_baby said:
Actually I do predict a small bump, last month was 5 weeks this month only 4 so I do predict average weekly sales to increase, also there are several bundles of 360 so its actually difficult to say using asp which is actually most popular
Click to expand...

In terms of marketshare (which is pretty consistant) you expect no bump, this for sure should be the month 360 breaks 50% marketshare.
 
Dynopia said:
what I meant was it's not the most popular,
Click to expand...

That's what I read it as, and the information we have doesn't prove that.

Example:
300 4GBs @ $200 +
125 4GBs+Kinect @ $300 +
125 250 GBs @ $300 +
100 250 GBs+Kinect @ $400 =>

ASP of $269, which is about the ASP jvm usually posts. In that scenario 4GBs is the most popular of the four models with 46% share in units. I think you're forgetting about the existence of the $400 model. Someone made the same mistake when they posted what you said in last month's NPD thread, I think.
 
donny2112 said:
That's what I read it as, and the information we have doesn't prove that.

Example:
300 4GBs @ $200 +
125 4GBs+Kinect @ $300 +
125 250 GBs @ $300 +
100 250 GBs+Kinect @ $400 =>

ASP of $269, which is about the ASP jvm usually posts. In that scenario 4GBs is the most popular of the four models with 46% share in units. I think you're forgetting about the existence of the $400 model. Someone made the same mistake when they posted what you said in last month's NPD thread, I think.
Click to expand...

Are the $99 models and the fact discounts are available factored in? I'm not against believeing the 4GB sku is in fact the most popular though, doesn't change my stand however.
 
[360] 275k
[3DS] 255k
[PS3] 210k
[PSV] 44k
[WII] 60k

Don't see the price cut doing a great amount for the 360 this month and Assassin's Creed comes out on the 30th for Vita so it should drop this month with no signficant releases.
 
metalslimer said:
[360] 275k
[3DS] 255k
[PS3] 210k
[PSV] 49k
[WII] 60k

Don't see the price cut doing a great amount for the 360 this month and Assassin's Creed comes out on the 30th for Vita so it should drop this month with no signficant releases.
Click to expand...

Based on weekly average you actually suggest a slight rise for vita
 
Dynopia said:
Are the $99 models and the fact discounts are available factored in?
Click to expand...

I believe NPD uses the price at time of purchase to determine ASP, but I don't know about subscription model costs. For example, the free 360s with a Windows 7 PC purchase a couple of years ago seemed to cause a huge spike in hardware sales that month, but ASP was pretty much unaffected. Don't know if they counted that as a full-price SKU and discounted the PC that much or what. Since the ASP for single SKU configurations can be less than MSRP, sales are definitely included somehow, though.

Dynopia said:
doesn't change my stand however.
Click to expand...

Yeah, the other models should all see rises due to their price drops. Whether that affects the $199 model is unknown, but I'd still expect a pretty good increase over last month's weekly average.

Edit:
There's the general "more advertising raises public awareness of the system, which can lead to more sales, anyways" line of thinking, too.
 
frankie_baby said:
Based on weekly average you actually suggest a slight rise for vita
Click to expand...

Ah yes, I was talking monthly. Even though this is a 4 week month October sales don't generally seem to drop in relation to the lack of a 5th week. So yes, a weekly increase does seem possible. I guess I will lower them a bit.
 
[360] 220k
[3DS] 200k
[PS3] 180k
[PSV] 35k
[WII] 95k


Feel like I'm lowballing 360 and 3DS, but I think October's games aren't going to give a bump to 360 and I don't think B&W2 will help 3DS much.
 
[360] 244K
[3DS] 211K
[PS3] 166K
[PSV] 33K
[WII] 66K


Curious to see if RE6 will mirror its UK (under)performance.
 
I know I'm probably late, but thinking more about Iwata's statements, maybe we have a sort of range for 3DS.

He said "3DS almost recovered in September to last year levels, and it's performing better in October". As said many posts ago, it's unclear if he's saying it's doing better than just September 2012 or than October 2011. Now, we know some numbers

September 2011: 260k - 52k per week, 5-weeks-month
September 2012: almost 250k - 50k per week, 5-weeks-month
October 2011: 250k - 62.5k per week, 4-week-month

Since Iwata is saying it's doing better in October, 3DS should have done at least better than 50k per week. Something like 55k, and then 220k for the whole month. If the platform is doing instead better than October 2011, it could be around 270-280k.

Then, we have the bit about Pokèmon actually helping 3DS sales in US too, which is different compared to last year, when there was nothing relevant released in October. And in fact, Nintendo had to lower sales forecasts with Q3 Results released this January due to lower-than-forecasted sales entering the end of the year. Instead, this time, Pokèmon "accelerated the trend towards the year-end".

So, IMHO the range is between 230k and 300k for 3DS, since Pokèmon helped.
 
[360] 300K
[3DS] 235K
[PS3] 175K
[WII] 65K
[PSV] 35K

Sony did 250K last October and 250K the one before that. What could possibly get them above that this year? Nothing. :(
 
jvm said:
Sony did 250K last October and 250K the one before that. What could possibly get them above that this year?
Click to expand...

Price increase?

Oh.

Should set them up for some relatively large "deals" in the Christmas shopping season compared to the new base price, though.
 
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