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SemiA: Console using Amkor potentially delayed 6 months till mid 2014

J

jeff_rigby

Banned
Edit: This OP post is in error. My opinion: Game console is a special case covered under NDA and this is what caused the confusion between dates for the game console in the first Oct 2011 AMKOR PDF and the Industry at large in the second AMKOR Oct 2011 PDF in a presentation at an industry lecture. Game consoles will be 6-8 months ahead of AMD's other products using the same technology. (First AMKOR PDF agrees with the Yole PDF on 2.5D wide IO memory in the PS4) Edit: 512 bit wide custom DDR3 is not the same as WideIO as WideIO has a different standard for communication. The principals are the same and even some articles are confusing this issue.

Edit on edit: First take is apparently accurate and Sony to release in 2013 is using GDDR5 to get the same bandwidth.

http://semiaccurate.com/forums/showpost.php?p=173901&postcount=903 said:
To whichever company using Amkor, could this be the confirmation of the rumors of delay for production?

PDF from Oct 2011
Page 2
Si Interposer + DDR + Logic
GPU / CPU (28nm)
http://sites.amd.com/la/Documents/TFE2011_001AMC.pdf

PDF from Feb 2012
Page 10
http://www.amkor.com/download.cfm?d...DC8BFAE253&typename=dmFile&fieldname=filename
On page 10 we see the same chart as in the Oct 2011 document, but with Si Interposer + DDR + Logic chip delayed 6 months, pushed into mid 2014
Click to expand...
http://semiaccurate.com/forums/showpost.php?p=173907&postcount=905 said:
The updated PDF from Feb 2012 fits the timeline, if we assume it's MS they're talking about for that specific chip. Chip goes into production in Jan, and yields are horribly low as Charlie reports later in Sep. Amkor of course knows already straight away hence the updated PDF in Feb.

Obviously AMD is using Amkor (look at the pic, uses the same font as in the PDFs ) but as far as the Si Interposer + DDR + Logic chip at 28nm goes, whoever that product is being produced for will get delayed. It fits in with what we hear about 720 so far, but could it also be PS4?
Click to expand...

This explains the rumored delay for Sony unless some still don't believe Sony is supporting wide IO via transposer.

This could impact BOTH consoles as AMD/GF is using AMKOR, only if Microsoft is using AMD/TSMC would it not impact the Xbox 720.

More info: this would be something related to the transposer which should Fab first and might be Oban. Sweetvar26 said Sony was first, 6 months behind but now on track?

If this is related to the transposer => Oban is a large blank Japanese gold coin with bumps (transposer description) then Charlie was correct but didn't have the whole story. We may see another article soon.

EDIT:

http://www.i-micronews.com/upload/Rapports/3D_Silicon_&Glass_Interposers_sample_2012.pdf

Page 10 above picture stating PS4 will use 2.5D stacking
Page 16 2013 start of Game station and controllers using 2.5D stacking
page 17 continues with a forecast to 2017 of Game console % use of 2.5D stacking

2013 as the start of game console 3D stacking in this 2012 PDF contradicts the AMKOR Oct 27, 2011 and 2012 PDF. There are two versions of the OCT 2011 AMKOR PDF, one in the OP and the one found by systemfehler. Both are Oct 2011 but the second below has NEW information on increasing yield by splitting large Logic (CPU or CPU) chips into smaller packages. This second Oct PDF agrees with the 2012 PDF that 2.5D products will ship the middle of 2014.

http://sites.amd.com/la/Documents/TFE2011_001AMC.pdf
http://imapsaz.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/Amkor-IMAPS-presentation-Oct27-2011.pdf

Best guess is that the AMKOR OCT 27 and 2012 product intercepts do not include game consoles while the first is about game consoles. This created the confusion. I can continue with a wall of explanation but I believe it's obvious.

Either AMKOR in the same month (OCT 2011) revised their projection forward 6 months and Yole has their information from 2012 in error or the second AMKOR PDF with the revised timeline is to "IMAPS Presentation" for the industry and information about game consoles is edited out as it's a special case and falls under NDA which still applies to the 2012 AMKOR PDF.

Thanks to systemfehler for finding the second OCT 2011 AMKOR PDF.
 
O

Orayn

Member
Though I try to take SemiA with more than a grain of salt, the delay to 2014 really is looking like a reality at this point... Very unfortunate for Sony.
 
Q

quest

Not Banned from OT
If they can not launch in the same holiday season as MS they might as well close up shop. Being 2 holiday seasons after the Wii U and 1 after the next xbox would be disasterous in the US. Just asking to be 3rd in the US again and playing catch up again for a whole generation.
 
D

Derrick01

Banned
That would not be good for Sony if they let MS have 2013. As it is now Sony doesn't have anything for the last half of the year, and it felt like they were pushing everything to the front so they could launch a new console.
 
C

Cookie18

Member
I reckon it will be closer to March 2014 with Japan getting it in late 2013. Similar to the PS3 and Vita launches.

If it does release like that then I'm definitely importing it.
 
T

Tagg9

Member
I realize that you know your stuff, Jeff, but this implies that they knew the launch would be delayed way back at the beginning of 2012.

Given this, it doesn't make sense that they'd choose to release their biggest titles during the first half of 2013 (Last of Us, GoW:A) instead of saving them for the fall.
 
F

fuenf

Member
Cookie18 said:
I reckon it will be closer to March 2014 with Japan getting it in late 2013. Similar to the PS3 and Vita launches.

If it does release like that then I'm definitely importing it.
Click to expand...

focusing on Japan doesnt make sense, they need to stay competitive in the US / Europe.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Vyse The Legend said:
Could? Pretty much DOA, if they let Microsoft get a huge, uncontested lead.
Click to expand...

Wouldn't it be shorter than their uncontested time on the market from this gen? Though this time they will have Nintendo out there.

I agree that this would be pretty bad though, and I can't understand why they wouldn't have been planning for this.

watershed said:
Not good for Sony if true. What the hell is going to happen to their finances for 2013 with the ps3 fading, the Vita...existing and their competitors' new consoles already on the market?
Click to expand...

It would be good for Sony financially to have the PS3 on the market for another year. They're going to lose money on every PS4 sold.

Long term they might just have a flop product and lose like a billion dollars, which...I guess might be better than PS3!
 
T

TimeEffect

Member
Tagg9 said:
I realize that you know your stuff, Jeff, but this implies that they knew the launch would be delayed way back at the beginning of 2012.

Given this, it doesn't make sense that they'd choose to release their biggest titles during the first half of 2013 (Last of Us, GoW:A) instead of saving them for the fall.
Click to expand...

What if they try to clean up stock by doing crazy bundles for 2012 Christmas? Like, super cheap PS3's with lots of games bundled.

The Last Guardian and Versus XIII were confirmed for PS3, so they're pretty much guaranteed to come out before 2014 or not too late in 2014.
Click to expand...

I have no hope for either, but they are better off as PS4 titles
 
C

Cookie18

Member
fuenf said:
focusing on Japan doesnt make sense, they need to stay competitive in the US / Europe.
Click to expand...

Well it's easier for them to release earlier in Japan. If I remember correctly the PS3 came out in the USA and Japan in late 2006 and Europe in March 2007. My money is on something like that happening again. Maybe they will shift focus to a early US release if the next Xbox is around then.
 
W

watershed

Banned
Not good for Sony if true. What the hell is going to happen to their finances for 2013 with the ps3 fading, the Vita...existing and their competitors' new consoles already on the market?
 
R

RoboPlato

I'd be in the dick
I feel like Sony would rather find another solution instead of waiting for this piece to be ready, unless it'll allow them to beef up all of their specs more.
 
D

Dabanton

Member
I'll echo the thoughts on giving MS even a couple of months headstart. 6 months is potentially deadly.

That will give if MS as expected they release later next year lots of accidental third party timed exclusives. Plus whatever else they are cooking up.

If their is even a small chance of release I could see Sony releasing in the US first rather than Japan.
 
J

Jarmel

Banned
Computer said:
The Last Guardian and Versus XIII were confirmed for PS3, so they're pretty much guaranteed to come out before 2014 or not too late in 2014.
Click to expand...

Really, neither should be an indicator for anything. No way Versus makes it out by the end of 2013. Lightning Returns is going to be released at the earliest mid-2013 if not Winter.
 
B

Barack Lesnar

Banned
Jarmel said:
Really, neither should be an indicator for anything. No way Versus makes it out by the end of 2013. Lightning Returns is going to be released at the earliest mid-2013 if not Winter.
Click to expand...

How are they releasing these FF13 spin-off games and sequels and can't get Versus done? Are they just not working on it?
 
S

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Sony would be in trouble in the West via Microsoft and borderline out of the game in Japan via Nintendo if this is true.
 
Q

quest

Not Banned from OT
Dabanton said:
I'll echo the thoughts on giving MS even a couple of months headstart. 6 months is potentially deadly.

That will give if MS as expected they release later next year lots of accidental third party timed exclusives. Plus whatever else they are cooking up.

If their is even a small chance of release I could see Sony releasing in the US first rather than Japan.
Click to expand...

In the US it is pointless to launch outside fall/holiday season. If no PS3 in the fall 2013 might as well delay to holiday 2014 and hope for a miracle. Launching outside of fall/holiday season is sending it to die.
 
P

Proxy

Member
I'll believe it when I see it. I think the PS4 is locked in for 2013 in at least one region, probably NA.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
That's absolutely huge if true.
 
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