IDC a research firm has recently reported that the PS3 has apparently overtaken the Xbox 360, 77m to 76m, widely discussed in this thread. Myself and others that follow sales have noticed and argued why it's very unlikely this is the case and that IDC are either lying or mistaken (I'm thinking the latter which I'll get to shortly.) Either way it's no surprise from the company that gave us this little gem. This is doing the rounds on most of the sites without anyone bothering to do much research, and people here are using it in debates.
First off I'll go back to the last solid PS3 shipment number we got before Sony merged PS2 and PS3 quarterly shipments. This would be a LTD of 63.9m as of March 31st, the end of Sony's FY. That Q the PS3 was down 0.2m YOY.
The following Q's looked like this.
Q2 Apr/June: 2.8m PS2 + PS3
Q3 July/Sep: 3.5m PS2 + PS3
In Q2 2011 the PS3 shipped 1.8m, it's noted in the financials that the PS3 was down this Q but it's unclear whether they mean in terms of Revenue or Units. What we do know is that the PS3 was down around 160,000 units in the US (NPD) and up in Japan 50,000 units. So between the two, down 110,000 units. No other data for Europe or around the world.
In Q3 we know for Sure PS3 was down, as it shipped 3.7m by itself in 2011, in Q3 this year it sold 3.5m with the PS2 included as well. It was down in the US by 260,000 units and down in Japan 275,000 units. So those two regions combined 525,000. Again no data for Europe or elsewhere. In the same period last year the PS2 shipped 1.2 million.
By end of September the sheer maximum amount of PS3's there could be on shelves was 70.2 million, that is without Sony shipping any PS2 at all, the likelyhood of that is low.
It's debatable what PS3 is truly at end of September, anywhere from 63.9 - 70.2.
I imagine (feel free to debate this!) Q2 broke down into around 1.8m PS3 (flat) and 1m PS2 (down 400k) and Q3 being 2.8m PS3 (down 900k) and PS2 700k (down 500k).
This would put PS3 at about 68.5m. It may be higher, it may be lower It's a good average for what we've got to work with though.
Fast forward to today and we apparently have 77 million PS3's. For comparison, last Q4 Sony shipped 6.5m PS3's. Even if we go off that highest figure 70.2, that means they would have had to have shipped 6.8m this Q. Of course it wasn't at 70.2, more likely the 68.5 I arrived at. So make that 8.5m Sony would have had to have shipped this Q to reach 77 mill.
This makes no sense given;
A) They're down in the US this Q around 550,000 units, and down in Japan around 125,000 units. So 675,000 combined.
B) Reaching 77m means PS3 just had it's best ever year shipping 15 million! This is up 700k on its previous best, despite being down Q1,Q3 (probably Q2 given the sales data we have) and down in the US this year over 1.14m and down in Japan over 330,000k.
C) Sony were not even forecasting 15m shipped. They expected around 13m PS3, and 16m PS2 + PS3 combined for their FY (ends march, Q1 will likely be similar to this years, certainly not up!)
We don't have any data for Europe, the strongest market for Sony. This doesn't automatically mean it's up or even flat there though. the US is 360's strongest market and that's dropped 25% there. Simply having 'PS3 is a beast in Europe' as your argument won't do when you have no numbers or evidence to back it up.
Lastly we have the 70m figure from Sony at the start of Nov, which means Sony would have had to have shipped 7m between Nov-Dec. This is more than what they've done any other Q in PS3 history despite having a month shaved off (where retailers are buying in prep of the holiday.)
My thoughts on how IDC arrived at these numbers. Well, they either guessed. Or they have seen Sony's financials, which state PS3 + PS2 shipped around 6.8m combined and added that onto the previous combined figure of 70.2m.
Is there a way the 77m figure is true? Sure, Sony shipped 8.5m during this Q. For that to happen they would have had to have stuffed the channels (big time).
MS did this last holiday you say? Well, 360 had it's best ever year in actual sell through last year in the US. In its biggest market it was actually very slightly up during the holiday. (2011) All evidence we have for PS3 this year does not suggest the same. There are other arguments as to how that figure they shipped isn't as abnormal as many think.
First off I'll go back to the last solid PS3 shipment number we got before Sony merged PS2 and PS3 quarterly shipments. This would be a LTD of 63.9m as of March 31st, the end of Sony's FY. That Q the PS3 was down 0.2m YOY.
The following Q's looked like this.
Q2 Apr/June: 2.8m PS2 + PS3
Q3 July/Sep: 3.5m PS2 + PS3
In Q2 2011 the PS3 shipped 1.8m, it's noted in the financials that the PS3 was down this Q but it's unclear whether they mean in terms of Revenue or Units. What we do know is that the PS3 was down around 160,000 units in the US (NPD) and up in Japan 50,000 units. So between the two, down 110,000 units. No other data for Europe or around the world.
In Q3 we know for Sure PS3 was down, as it shipped 3.7m by itself in 2011, in Q3 this year it sold 3.5m with the PS2 included as well. It was down in the US by 260,000 units and down in Japan 275,000 units. So those two regions combined 525,000. Again no data for Europe or elsewhere. In the same period last year the PS2 shipped 1.2 million.
By end of September the sheer maximum amount of PS3's there could be on shelves was 70.2 million, that is without Sony shipping any PS2 at all, the likelyhood of that is low.
It's debatable what PS3 is truly at end of September, anywhere from 63.9 - 70.2.
I imagine (feel free to debate this!) Q2 broke down into around 1.8m PS3 (flat) and 1m PS2 (down 400k) and Q3 being 2.8m PS3 (down 900k) and PS2 700k (down 500k).
This would put PS3 at about 68.5m. It may be higher, it may be lower It's a good average for what we've got to work with though.
Fast forward to today and we apparently have 77 million PS3's. For comparison, last Q4 Sony shipped 6.5m PS3's. Even if we go off that highest figure 70.2, that means they would have had to have shipped 6.8m this Q. Of course it wasn't at 70.2, more likely the 68.5 I arrived at. So make that 8.5m Sony would have had to have shipped this Q to reach 77 mill.
This makes no sense given;
A) They're down in the US this Q around 550,000 units, and down in Japan around 125,000 units. So 675,000 combined.
B) Reaching 77m means PS3 just had it's best ever year shipping 15 million! This is up 700k on its previous best, despite being down Q1,Q3 (probably Q2 given the sales data we have) and down in the US this year over 1.14m and down in Japan over 330,000k.
C) Sony were not even forecasting 15m shipped. They expected around 13m PS3, and 16m PS2 + PS3 combined for their FY (ends march, Q1 will likely be similar to this years, certainly not up!)
We don't have any data for Europe, the strongest market for Sony. This doesn't automatically mean it's up or even flat there though. the US is 360's strongest market and that's dropped 25% there. Simply having 'PS3 is a beast in Europe' as your argument won't do when you have no numbers or evidence to back it up.
Lastly we have the 70m figure from Sony at the start of Nov, which means Sony would have had to have shipped 7m between Nov-Dec. This is more than what they've done any other Q in PS3 history despite having a month shaved off (where retailers are buying in prep of the holiday.)
My thoughts on how IDC arrived at these numbers. Well, they either guessed. Or they have seen Sony's financials, which state PS3 + PS2 shipped around 6.8m combined and added that onto the previous combined figure of 70.2m.
Is there a way the 77m figure is true? Sure, Sony shipped 8.5m during this Q. For that to happen they would have had to have stuffed the channels (big time).
MS did this last holiday you say? Well, 360 had it's best ever year in actual sell through last year in the US. In its biggest market it was actually very slightly up during the holiday. (2011) All evidence we have for PS3 this year does not suggest the same. There are other arguments as to how that figure they shipped isn't as abnormal as many think.
