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January 2013 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes February 11

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donny2112

Member
What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Monday, February 11th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: December 31-February 2 (5 weeks, December was 5 weeks - This is a leap month!)
NPD Release: February 14th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST) (Happy Valentine's Day!)

IMPORTANT: As of May 2012's results, NPD is now directly including Wal-Mart data in their totals. Previously they were only estimating for Wal-Mart, so there could be some significant changes in relative performance compared to previous years.

Format:
Note: PSV will only be counted for unit results and not point results.

[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PSV]
[WIU]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[360] 300K        [360] 300 thousand
[360] 300,000     [360] 300.000
[360] 300000      [360] - 300000


Potential hardware impacting events in January:


December's Results - thanks to a variety of angles

donny2112 said:
Okay, unless something else comes up while finishing catching up with the thread, looks like we're going with the below for predictions. :)

360 - 1400K
3DS - 1250K
PS3 - 625K
WII - 475K
WIU - 460K
PSV - 225K
Click to expand...
December 2011 NPD thread
January 2012 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
[360] 210K
[3DS] 180K
[PS3] 166K
[PSV] 75K
[WIU] 115K

I wonder if I'm underestimating the Wii U and overestimating the 3DS :P
 
Some of the 3DS predictions are a bit too high and Wii U a bit too low. I seriously don't see it dropping below 100k this month.

With 3DS, doesn't it usually end up below PS3 unless it's the holidays?

[360] 225k
[3DS] 150K
[PS3] 165K
[PSV] 95K
[WIU] 130K
 
Worst first January:
Code: 
GC   2002  60k
Xbox 2002 130k
DS   2005 150k
GBA  2002 170k
PSP  2006 180k

I think those were all 4 weeks only.
 
[360] 250K
[3DS] 200K
[PS3] 150K
[PSV] 50K
[WIU] 130K

Wii U numbers seem to be overly pessimistic, IMO. Are people forgetting the 5-week month?

EDIT: Downward revising Wii U, again.
 
shinra-bansho said:
Wii U numbers seem to be overly pessimistic, IMO. Are people forgetting the 5-week month?
Click to expand...

In Japan, where it is currently cratering, challenging Vita for the low spot each week among *ahem* active systems, it sold 128K in the four weeks of January. Another week would push it up ~10K to ~140K. Japan's first week of January is much bigger than U.S. first week of January due to New Year's being big for gift-giving/gift card spending over there, though.

Maybe it's compensation trying to cover the idea of an overall sickly market?
 
Well, most of the numbers seem to be indicating people expect a weekly average at or below 25K. That's Vita level bad.

Even the ridiculously expensive PS3 managed ~50K a week in January 07.
 
donny2112 said:
In Japan, where it is currently cratering, challenging Vita for the low spot each week among *ahem* active systems, it sold 128K in the four weeks of January. Another week would push it up ~10K to ~140K. Japan's first week of January is much bigger than U.S. first week of January due to New Year's being big for gift-giving/gift card spending over there, though.

Maybe it's compensation trying to cover the idea of an overall sickly market?
Click to expand...
I think Wii U, so far, has a considerably more western focused support; and on top of it, home console market hasn't been good in Japan for a while now.

shinra-bansho said:
Well, most of the numbers seem to be indicating people expect a weekly average at or below 25K. That's Vita level bad.

Even the ridiculously expensive PS3 managed ~50K a week in January 07.
Click to expand...
I don't necessarily think Wii U will not do 50k, but it certainly doesn't seem as appealing as PS3 was at launch; it's more or less in the same situation that 3DS was initially: expensive and with few exclusive good games.
 
shinra-bansho said:
Well, most of the numbers seem to be indicating people expect a weekly average at or below 25K. That's Vita level bad.

Even the ridiculously expensive PS3 managed ~50K a week in January 07.
Click to expand...
It's probably been pointed out already, but the reason PS3 did decently in it's first January was because it was still supply constrained in the holidays. A lot is said about seeing it in the wild during the holidays but it still maintained an average over market value (At least for the 60GB model) on eBay signalling that supply was still an issue in many parts of the country. The way the numbers fell off a cliff in February add credence to this theory.

The Wii U however was fully stocked online and stayed that way from the beginning of December on and eBay prices collapsed 2 weeks into the system's life, for both models. There's no reason to believe it'll have a similar early-January sales rush.
 
PS3 was in stock the entire January 2007 NPD period. A case can be made of impulse purchases due to not seeing it in stock before Christmas much, but there were no PS3 shortages in January 2007.

Edit:
Is that what you were saying?
 
donny2112 said:
PS3 was in stock the entire January 2007 NPD period. A case can be made of impulse purchases due to not seeing it in stock before Christmas much, but there were no PS3 shortages in January 2007.

Edit:
Is that what you were saying?
Click to expand...
No, I was saying that the better than expected PS3 sales in early January 2007 came from pent up demand left over from the holidays. Obviously supply wasn't an issue in January and it'd be nuts to claim otherwise.
 
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