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Japan sees record fall in Population (24% are 65+)

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BudokaiMR2

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/japan/9999591/Japans-population-suffers-biggest-fall-in-history.html

The population across the Japanese archipelago dropped by around 284,000 to an estimated 127.5 million by October last year, the figures compiled by the government's Internal Affairs and Communications Ministry found.

The number of elderly people aged 65 or over surpassed 30 million for the first time, accounting for as much as 24 per cent of the population – in contrast to children aged 14 and under which decreased to a record low of 13 per cent.

As a result, the elderly officially outnumbered children, with a higher number of over-65s compared to children aged 14 and under in each of Japan's 47 prefectures for the first time.
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As someone living in Japan some of those numbers really scare me.

Is there going to be a senile cliff where Japan reaches the point where it is doomed to be a collection of decrepit old people with walkers trying to run the whole country?

It's already getting past the point of "Make more babies!!!!" being a possible solution.
I have a feeling Japan is going to be a very strange place in 20 years. Feels like the only short term solution would be promoting immigration, but most Japanese politicians are too stubborn and old-fashioned to even talk about it most of the time.
 
Multiculturalism is Japans only hope now, but that itself is a frightening concept. You can kiss Japans established culture goodbye.
 
Population fluctuations are natural >.< its weird that we have this strange obsession with GROWTH in every damn thing...

Granted most fluctuations were plague related but still!
 
Oh that's why Nintendo is having trouble...

seriously though it will be really interesting to see how Japan navigates this weird demographic "crisis" as several western nations are not far behind.
 
1000px-Population_of_Japan_since_1872.svg.png
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Ain't looking good.
 
BudokaiMR2 said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/japan/9999591/Japans-population-suffers-biggest-fall-in-history.html



As someone living in Japan some of those numbers really scare me.

Is there going to be a senile cliff where Japan reaches the point where it is doomed to be a collection of decrepit old people with walkers trying to run the whole country?

It's already getting past the point of "Make more babies!!!!" being a possible solution.
I have a feeling Japan is going to be a very strange place in 20 years. Feels like the only short term solution would be promoting immigration, but most Japanese politicians are too stubborn and old-fashioned to even talk about it most of the time.
Click to expand...

I wonder how they are going to cope with their debt and overall economic situation with their whole population shrinking to 1939 levels.
 
Don't they have some of the most expensive real estate in the world? I wonder what's going to happen as a third of the demand literally dies off.
 
markot said:
Population fluctuations are natural >.< its weird that we have this strange obsession with GROWTH in every damn thing...

Granted most fluctuations were plague related but still!
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Well the problem with Japan is that it's not so much a fluctuation as it is a nosedive.
 
BudokaiMR2 said:
Feels like the only short term solution would be promoting immigration, but most Japanese politicians are too stubborn and old-fashioned to even talk about it most of the time.
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Not to mention that many of the +65 people are also old-fashioned and they are big political demographic which only keeps growing these upcoming years. Maybe it will all work out and Japan will lead the way for sustainable no growth society.
 
John Dunbar said:
that actually sounds like a more reasonable population for a country of that size. going to be a rough ride to get there, though.
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It is in terms of population density, but yes, navigating the economic rapids as the population declines so rapidly will be difficult.
 
suaveric said:
Don't they have some of the most expensive real estate in the world? I wonder what's going to happen as a third of the demand literally dies off.
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That's obvious, the price of property falls through the floor and foreign investors swoop in like vultures, especially in a very livable city like Tokyo.
 
Japan was and is too densely populated, a decline in population was inevitable. It'll be rough going for a while but things will level out eventually. And as someone already pointed out they could really use the boost in the arm that immigration would bring.
 
I don't think that small population decrease over longer period of time would actually be that bad for some insanely densely populated countries like Japan but the complete crash of population is pretty damn bad and Japan is not the only country facing this. South Korea, Taiwan and Germany will follow shortly.
 
Population projection is the most stupid of all things ever. Its never correct at all, because there are sooooooo many variables.
 
I can understand the problem with a ageing population etc. but why is a smaller population a negative?

World is already overpopulated from what I understand.
If we keep on pressing nature might just do with us like it does in the animal kingdom, when there are too many rabbits for example.
 
KillerMan91 said:
I don't think that small population decrease over longer period of time would actually be that bad for some insanely densely populated countries like Japan but the complete crash of population is pretty damn bad and Japan is not the only country facing this. South Korea, Taiwan and Germany will follow shortly.
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Germany doesn't have same problem. It's very open for immigration and it's desirable country to work for educated and non-educated people.
 
Peru said:
The problem isn't the number of people in the country, it's the average age.
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Yeah, I think that is one thing people are missing here. It's not just that the population is dropping it's the fact that it is aging way too rapidly.

Especially for a country as densely populated as Japan the infrastructure needed just to keep things running is insane. If the average age keeps going up they could hit a point where everyone is too old and senile to run anything. Probably in small spurts if it happens at all.

I guess one plus side could be the fact that young skilled workers would be in high demand which could actually raise the abysmal Salaries here.
 
This is an issue for a lot of the developed world - both Germany and the UK also have dependency ratios creeping up the 30s, though Japan's rise is sharper. Japan should have no problem though. Their welfare state is tiny in comparison to those Eiropean countries and the workers retire much later. Barring some stupid moves this can all be managed very easily.

BTW: Mass immigration would only exacerbate this problem in the long term - something to be avoided for sure.

Now China, there's a country with a real population problem..

BudokaiMR2 said:
Yeah, I think that is one thing people are missing here. It's not just that the population is dropping it's the fact that it is aging way too rapidly.

Especially for a country as densely populated as Japan the infrastructure needed just to keep things running is insane. If the average age keeps going up they could hit a point where everyone is too old and senile to run anything. Probably in small spurts if it happens at all.

I guess one plus side could be the fact that young skilled workers would be in high demand which could actually raise the abysmal Salaries here.
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Lol. Maybe if this continued for 500 years.
 
Fuzz Rez said:
Germany doesn't have same problem. It's very open for immigration and it's desirable country to work for educated and non-educated people.
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There is limit for immigration too and Germany is looking to hit that. Fertility rate in Germany has been under replacement level since 70s.
 
GoddyofAus said:
That's obvious, the price of property falls through the floor and foreign investors swoop in like vultures, especially in a very livable city like Tokyo.
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Except iirc foreigners can't buy property in Japan. Not without a permanent residency visa at least.
 
The first time I saw a population pyramid for Germany I almost died of a heart attack. There are a lot of countries that are going to face problems like Japan in the future.
 
Wubby said:
Except iirc foreigners can't buy property in Japan. Not without a permanent residency visa at least.
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Yeah, I don't see that law sticking around if the property market crashes, which it will.

I hope I'm rich by that stage so I can buy a nice holiday apartment overlooking Akihabara.
 
Forsete said:
I can understand the problem with a ageing population etc. but why is a smaller population a negative?

World is already overpopulated from what I understand.
If we keep on pressing nature might just do with us like it does in the animal kingdom, when there are too many rabbits for example.
Click to expand...

Japan has high debt and with less people working it will be increasingly hard to bear that burden, also there will be bigger retired population to upkeep.
 
Sage00 said:
This is an issue for a lot of the developed world - both Germany and the UK also have dependency ratios creeping up the 30s, though Japan's rise is sharper. Japan should have no problem though. Their welfare state is tiny in comparison to those Eiropean countries and the workers retire much later. Barring some stupid moves this can all be managed very easily.

BTW: Mass immigration would only exacerbate this problem in the long term - something to be avoided for sure.

Now China, there's a country with a real population problem..


Lol. Maybe if this continued for 500 years.
Click to expand...

What makes you say immigration would exacerbate the problem?
 
Peru said:
The problem isn't the number of people in the country, it's the average age.
Click to expand...

Yeah, how do you take care of old people via social security type systems and healthcare if everyone who was paying taxes is now too old to work (in a culture that doesn't hire old people past mid 60's)?

I guess old people will need to work longer and any cultural roadblocks that would ordinarily cause companies to never hire an old person would have to be removed.
 
Uh, that's the nature of post industrial nations. If anything, it's not as big a worry as the overpopulation happening in places like Nigeria, Bangladesh, parts of India.

Japan is self sustaining and supporting. If their population falls, it's always easier to recover. Humans are resilient and it's hard to predict the future.

If anything slightly increased Chinese/Korean immigrants have helped somewhat. But I'm sure if there was a big problem, it can be mitigated. More benefits afford to large families, possible land usage, etc.

Besides, Japan, like Hong Kong has an extensive foreign worker service. I don't think they'll ever do mass immigration for fear of changing their homogeneous culture/lifestyle, but I can see them bringing in a lot of Chinese or Korean or other foreign workers to offset the loss.
 
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