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August 2013 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes September 9

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donny2112

Member
What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Monday, September 9th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: August 4-31 (4 weeks, July was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, September 12th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:
Note: PSV will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. PSV is not included for point results.

[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PSV]
[WIU]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[360] 200K        [360] 200 thousand
[360] 200,000     [360] 200.000
[360] 200000      [360] - 200000


Potential hardware impacting events in August:
Black 3DSXL @ $199 - August 11 (21 days)
PS3 12GB version @ $199 - August 20 (12 days)
PSVita price cut to $199 - August 21 (11 days)
Wii U price cut to $299 announced for Sept. 20 - August 28 (4 days)
2-D 3DS (i.e. 2DS) announced for Oct. 12 at $129 - August 28 (4 days)

July's Results - thanks to Freki and various angles

Freki said:
Going by the posts until now this is roughly the picture for July:

3DS - 150,000
360 - 107,000
PS3 - 79,000
WiiU ~ 29.000
Vita ~ 16.000
Click to expand...

July 2012 NPD thread
August 2012 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
I'll have to post my predictions later, but this should be an interesting month. Vita price cut, cheaper PS3 entry unit, and Pikmin 3 + announced Wii U price cut. Hopefully we get more variation in the predictions this time around.
 
[360] 115K
[3DS] 135K
[PS3] 120K
[PSV] 50K
[WIU] 20K

Incoming college student bump up the HD twins, with a small lead to sony for the new $199 PS3.

Vita get a bump, but nothing massive.

Wii U actually falls a bit because of price drop announcement late in the month.
 
The August 28th Wii U news will have hampered existing sales for the last four days of the month. Of course, this phenomenon will largely be inconsequential to overall sales. In total, the August NPD season saw the release of four retail Wii U games: Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell® Blacklist™, Disney Planes, Phineas and Ferb: Quest for Cool Stuff, and Pikmin™ 3...as well as the eShop games DuckTales: Remastered and Pokémon™ Rumble U. I predict the first three retail titles will not have even slightly changed potential trajectory of the console. However, Pikmin 3's previous success in the USA retail market does have the potential to elevate Wii U sales into a MOM gain. Regardless, I envision continued sluggishness for the console that will extend at least until the September 20th price cut.

Wii U - 34,000

Vita's August 21st price cut gives it an edge over previous months, but its extraordinarily weak retail presence throws the impact of such a price cut into question. It's safe to say that I'm not willing to be optimistic, especially as the price cut wasn't dramatic and the memory card prices still remain high.

Vita - 26,000

I expect slight MOM depreciation for 360 with no major trajectory shifts as of yet. That is, I bet that Gamescom did not have any significant impact on the system.

360 - 102,000 (-47% YOY)

With the cheapest PS3 now $50 lower than before, I presume a slight sales boost for the PS3, but nothing spectacular...certainly not something to reverse the intense declines we've seen so far for the system.

PS3 - 92,000 (-36% YOY)

And finally, I anticipate that 3DS retail (Mario & Luigi: Dream Team) will not have sufficiently modified the post-Animal Crossing downward track to the extent that it can stave off MOM declines. In fact, I believe 3DS retail is such that it will even underwhelm YOY, something Nintendo needs to be worried about. However, with the upcoming 2DS and Pokemon X/Y in October, I look forward to more of a return to form.

3DS - 139,000 (-21% YOY)


In proper counting order:

[360] 102K
[3DS] 139K
[PS3] 92K
[PSV] 26K
[WIU] 34K
 
[360] 95k
[3DS] 170k
[PS3] 80k
[PSV] 25k
[WIU] 47k

Pikmin 3 will help Wii U sales, bump won't be big, similar to Japan's bump. 360 will perform worse than July. PS3 model won't boost sales significantly, Vita as well. Over prediciting 3DS just cause.
 
Yeah, why not this month? I've started checking how the trends were from July to August in the last years, and there have been increases (by increases I mean increases not determined by new models / Madden). So, it's possible to see increases.

PS3: It had the 199$ 12GB model for 12 days of the tracked period, there should be some effect. However, the 199$ 12GB SKU launch doesn't seem to be an exciting event, and there's no big exclusive title (especially no title with a good appeal accompaining the launch), so I'm not expecting a huge effect. Last month it sold less than 80k, lowest result ever for the platform, despite The Last of Us doing amazing. Combining possible increase due to the month + 12 days of the new SKU, and Madden's first days, I'd say...

[PS3] 105,000

360: Minecraft will continue selling, but the brand new Slim already failed at reigniting interest in it. There's Madden, though, even if for less than a week. So...

[360] 113,000

Wii U: Price cut got announced on 28th, so no impact for this month's datas. But Pikmin 3, and the other games released could have had. Pikmin is a niche series, though, so we can't expect huge increases, far from it. Then...

[Wii U] 42,000

Vita: Price cut for 11 days, but no releases accompaining it. It sold like 2011/2012 PSP recently, and memory cards didn't see enough of a price cut, they're still expensive, and they still make Vita very expensive, even if less than before. We should see a pretty little effect...

[Vita] 21,000

3DS: 2DS's announcement is as influential as Wii U's price cut announcement: basically, not at all for this month.
When we saw 3DS's June number, especially considering Iwata's claims about how sales increased when Animal Crossing debuted (4x compared to precedent week at least), which were good, but not so good to think at huge increases in the following months, we were questioning how much of the AC's momentum would have influenced July's sales. And, actually, July sales demonstrated that Animal Crossing is still influencing sales: not by much, but a 14% YOY increase in a month where the biggest event of the platform was the release of a quite niche release (which overperformed, though :D) means that its effect is lasting, and considering New Leaf released at the beginning of June, that's good. AC should be still selling very nicely, so it'll influence 3DS sales for the month again. But, in August, 3DS saw both Mario&Luigi and the Black 3DS XL being launched; Animal Crossing isn't alone this time.
So, higher than last year again? It's not guaranteed. Last year, 3DS XL + NSMB2 launched and effected 7 days of the tracked period. My veridict, then? Well...

[3DS] 170,000

Summing up:

[360] 113,000
[3DS] 170,000
[PSV] 21,000
[PS3] 105,000
[WIU] 42,000
 
[360] 110k
[3DS] 160k
[PSV] 25k
[PS3] 95k
[WIU] 40k

Overall I see increases from last month, although small. 3DS has black XL and Mario & Luigi going for it, WiiU has Pikmin and Luigi U, PS3/Vita have price drops, and 360... has Madden? I dunno. I'm usually dead wrong in these predictions anyways :D
 
Ok, so what do y'all think the Wii U will end up doing after 12 months (ending October 2013)?

So far just over 1.2 million. If we add 50K in August, then even 100K in September, and 100K in October, we're at just under 1.5 million for 12 calendar months on the market. Is that lowballing the potential for the effect of the price cut and software launches? You think it will go above 1.5 million for 12 months, then by how much?

Just curious what people are thinking. I'm concerned the die has been cast, but we'll know more in September and then again by February 2014 when the holiday is past and we see what people are doing subsequent to that.

Edit: Also, food for thought. I believe the Wii U is about 1 full game per system behind the Wii in terms of tie ratio at this point in its lifetime. How much of that do you think is down to eShop sales? How much is simply a lack of new software titles at retail? I ask because I kind of felt that Nintendo fans would be a big part of the hardware base so far, and therefore more likely to buy Wii U software, even if there's not a lot to buy. But the figures show that they're buying fewer titles, not more.

The closest comparison I can make to a sluggish console launch is the PS3, but even its tie ratio was significantly higher than the Wii U at the same point in its life.
 
<40k in August - Pikmin didn't do nearly anything in Japan which usually responds better to new software but it should keep weekly average at similar levels to July
then September up to 20th will be dead due to price cut so 50-60k total
<80k in October
 
michaelius said:
<40k in August - Pikmin didn't do nearly anything in Japan which usually responds better to new software but it should keep weekly average at similar levels to July
then September up to 20th will be dead due to price cut so 50-60k total
<80k in October
Click to expand...

I'd agree here except october, i think it'll be over 100k with a full month of the price cut and the zelda bundle
 
jvm said:
Ok, so what do y'all think the Wii U will end up doing after 12 months (ending October 2013)?

So far just over 1.2 million. If we add 50K in August, then even 100K in September, and 100K in October, we're at just under 1.5 million for 12 calendar months on the market. Is that lowballing the potential for the effect of the price cut and software launches? You think it will go above 1.5 million for 12 months, then by how much?

Just curious what people are thinking. I'm concerned the die has been cast, but we'll know more in September and then again by February 2014 when the holiday is past and we see what people are doing subsequent to that.
Click to expand...

You have to keep in mind that the Wii U's state at retail is quite weak. In that sense, I believe there is a sense of futility in being overly-optimistic with the console. It's kind of like the Vita in that regard.

That doesn't mean miracles can't happen. Nintendo may be able to suddenly spark interest in the hearts of the consumer and completely change their fortunes. But I believe when dealing with the Wii U, it's better to have a realistic, grounded opinion about its sales potential. In that sense, no, 1.5 million is not lowballing the console as the price cut isn't dramatic, and the first-party lineup may still underperform.

So we're at 1.22 million consoles sold in the USA as of July 2013.

And for the rest of the year we have:


September

1) The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker HD: Launches Sept. 20 (downloadable) at a suggested price of $49.99.

2) Starting Sept. 20, the Deluxe version of NintendoÂ’s Wii U system will be reduced in price by $50, to a new suggested retail price of just $299.99.

3) A new limited-edition Wii U bundle featuring The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker HD launches on Sept. 20 at a suggested retail price of $299.99.

October:

1) The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker HD: Launches Oct. 4 (packaged) at a suggested retail price of $49.99.

2) Wii Party U: Launches Oct. 25 bundled with a Wii Remote Plus controller and stand at a suggested retail price of $49.99.

Holiday Season:

1) Super Mario 3D World: Launches Nov. 22 at a suggested retail price of $59.99.

2) Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze: Launches Dec. 6 at a suggested retail price of $49.99.

3) Wii Fit U: Launches this holiday season. Further details, including launch date, pricing and bundling information, will be revealed at a later date.

4) Mario & Sonic at the Sochi 2014 Olympic Winter Games™: Launches this holiday season. Further details, including launch date and pricing, will be revealed at a later date.


These are all the potential modifiers to Wii U sales.

I firmly believe that no third-party game in 2013 for the Wii U (not even Sonic Lost World) can significantly change its momentum, so it's completely up to first-party to drive adoption.

Given holiday fervor, and the fact that Nintendo will most likely backload their advertising campaign, it is reasonable to expect at least 200,000 units sold each month during the holiday season. So around 450,000 total (keep in mind, the Wii U launch sold 888,000 in the USA).

September will see the $50 price cut and the Wind Waker bundle, which will at least double Wii U sales.

And while I feel October's lineup isn't particularly strong at all, September and October are typically the lead-in months to the holiday season, so it should maintain momentum.

In terms of absolute minimum expectations:

August - 20K
September - 50K
October - 50K
November - 100K
December - 100K

If the Wii U can't hit those figures in 2H, Nintendo might as well cancel the system next March.

In terms of realistic minimum expectations:

August - 34K
September - 75K
October - 75K
November - 200K
December - 250K

^ Based on the relative strength of the Wii U and how successfully the new releases will push adoption, that would be the minimum expected amount I would project for the console.

Of course, that would be the "minimum." Here would be my projected (non-minimum) sales for the console, assuming we find evidence that the Wii U's fortunes will start to turn around.

August - 50K
September - 150K
October - 150K
November - 300K
December - 400K

In that case, the Wii U would be at 1.57 million after October 2013.
 
Aquamarine said:
it is reasonable to expect at least 200,000 units sold each month during the holiday season.
Click to expand...

In other words, it's dead. Can't really spin 200K in November and/or December as a good thing, unless it's just in comparison to the previous months for that system. From an industry perspective, that's just barely existing numbers for a "living" console.
 
Don't forget Sonic in October too... not a system seller per se but it's something. Definitely a good addition to their lineup.
 
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