Even back in 2010-2011, when MS started designing the XBone and Sony started much earlier the only way to guarantee 8GB of RAM was to go with DDR3. DDR3 doesn't meet the performance requirements of modern GPUs, so going with DDR3 meant needing a high-speed "cache" to try to keep the GPU fed, hence the eSRAM. In turn, the eSRAM takes up tons of space on the die, meaning the GPU portion needed to be shrunk to accommodate it.
All of that would have the effect of reducing gaming performance, so to Sony, it wasn't really an option. A powerful GPU and 3.5GB of high-speed RAM to feed it made for a better gaming machine than a weaker GPU and 5GB of RAM that can't even keep up with the gimped GPU, so that's what they did. Gaming first.
Where Sony got lucky is that at the last minute, GDDR5 did jump to 8GB, allowing Sony to increase the game dev's RAM allocation from 8xPS3 to 11xPS3 (or more), while also bumping the OS allotment to 6x what they had originally planned.
If GDDR5 hadn't made the leap, Sony would've been "stuck" with the console that offered the best possible gaming experience, and not a whole lot else. As it stands, that's given them the console with the best possible gaming experience and the ability to do a bunch of other stuff at the same time
, though a lot of that extra functionality will be coming in the future, as 8GB really did come at the last minute, and they really haven't had much time to make use of it
Yup. The way XB1/PS4 ended up relates directly to the priorities of each platform holder.
MS: Wanted a multimedia box with Kinect -> 8gb needs to be there -> Only way to guarantee this early in the development cycle is to use DDR3 -> Too slow, need ESRAM on chip -> Weaker APU as a result -> More complex system to dev for and similar BOM as PS4 (sans Kinect).
Sony: Wanted the best games box -> GDDR5 is the best ram to feed GPU -> Can only use 2-4gb of it early in the development cycle -> XB1 has 8gb, we need to tighten our belts and make 8gb GDDR5 happen -> Good APU, no need to spend die space on embedded ram -> Easy to dev for console with similar BOM as XB1.
Heard back from my supply chain guy, reworked the figures:
Code:
Production Air shipping Sea shipping
August 0.2 0 0
September 0.4 0 0.6
October 0.9 0 0.8
November 1.7 0 1.8
December 1.7 1.0 0.7
January 1.2 0.3 0.9
February 1.2 0.2 1.0
Figures in millions.
Yup. 1.7m peak production per month. Crazy times if he is right. Makes sense though.
If Sony kept up 1.2 mil a month bar OCT/NOV and DEC for 1.7 mil those months and demand stayed as high as it is now, it's possible the PS4 could ship (and sell) 20 Million by 31st December 2014
Its not beyond the realms that japan could do 1m by end of feb so could be near 7m. 8m by end of march and 3m ahead of schedule. I wouldn't bet against it.
You could ofcourse be right. I've heard people say if you don't think they can shift a million in a short time your crazy. Also people with your opinion. Will be interesting to see what happens. Not long to wait.
Probably not, but given that everytime they put up pre-orders, the thing sells out within minutes means it's probably going to do pretty well for them out of the gate at least.
If Sony kept up 1.2 mil a month bar OCT/NOV and DEC for 1.7 mil those months and demand stayed as high as it is now, it's possible the PS4 could ship (and sell) 20 Million by 31st December 2014
I've been worried that there will be a peak and then a downfall in console sales...especially because this is a slower time of year. However, for Sony to be pumping out those numbers with only a handful of new PS4 games is great news. Just imagine how well they'll sell in a few months once we get a stronger influx of games. Congrats, Sony.
They're only lining up a few days in advance? Clearly going to get trounced by the Madoka movie's opening weekend.
I'm actually very confident it will sell-through completely for at least a month solid in Japan, though it remains to be seen what exactly that means. I'm having a lot of trouble really pinning down their stock allocation for the launch, and it's anyone's guess what their worldwide stock breakdown will look like afterwards.
The PS4's case is cantilevered with the supports being along the line of the matt/gloss divide. This (apparently) was a design choice so if you choose to stack the 4 vertically you don't see two rubber feet at the top.
This was 'wobblegate' and much discussed in the pre-launch frenzy. There are two solutions:
1. Don't push the end of the 4 down to make it rock.
Lets assume Sony ship 500k to Japan and that sells out within 2 weeks. Given we've had approx two weeks since these figures were released, they'll be around 6 million sold through by then.
Lets assume Sony ship 500k to Japan and that sells out within 2 weeks. Given we've had approx two weeks since these figures were released, they'll be around 6 million sold through by then.
Lets assume Sony ship 500k to Japan and that sells out within 2 weeks. Given we've had approx two weeks since these figures were released, they'll be around 6 million sold through by then.
I think 200k would disappoint a lot of people. Me anyway for sure. I'm hoping for 300 - 350k. edit: at least. I'm honestly hoping it hits 400k but I'm not too optimistic there.
The main problem with guessing their Japanese launch numbers is sort of the story of the PS4 in general: it's all about supply, not demand. The demand is obviously there, but we have no idea how much supply they've actually reserved.
I'd say somewhere around 500k is probably a decent estimate. They still have a lot of worldwide demand to keep up with. There's the possibility for more, though, if some of the napkin math in this thread that puts their production at 1.4 million a month turns out to be true.
It's not a bad price in Japan either and I expect the promise of what's to come to be enough to hook Japans home console gaming market. I expect there to be a sizable dropoff though. Not anywhere near as bad as WiiU, but I don't expect it to stabilize at much higher than 3DS has been. Probably a bit lower.30-35,000 units a week.
The end of it's life if everything goes well might take it to 15 million units there. A large uptick from the PS3, but still king of a shrinking hill. At the maximum (absolute) WiiU is going to sell 3.5 million units, and I'd expect One to sell closer to the Xbox than the 360. Home consoles might sell 20 million units in total. It could actually get worse in Japan though. All it takes is PS4 under-performing and WiiU and One being even worse than my already meager expectations.
The latter two are more likely. I have a good feeling that Sony is going to see an increase in marketshare through this home console generation in all regions. Largest upticks I expect from Europe and America. A gain of at least 20 million units in each.
But this may just be me looking for hope in a dwindling market. One that has brought me so many tens of thousands of hours of entertainment.
I think 200k would disappoint a lot of people. Me anyway for sure. I'm hoping for 300 - 350k. edit: at least. I'm honestly hoping it hits 400k but I'm not too optimistic there.
It's not a bad price in Japan either and I expect the promise of what's to come to be enough to hook Japans home console gaming market. I expect there to be a sizable dropoff though. Not anywhere near as bad as WiiU, but I don't expect it to stabilize at much higher than 3DS has been. Probably a bit lower.30-35,000 units a week.
The end of it's life if everything goes well might take it to 15 million units there. A large uptick from the PS3, but still king of a shrinking hill. At the maximum (absolute) WiiU is going to sell 3.5 million units, and I'd expect One to sell closer to the Xbox than the 360. Home consoles might sell 20 million units in total. It could actually get worse in Japan though. All it takes is PS4 under-performing and WiiU and One being even worse than my already meager expectations.
The latter two are more likely. I have a good feeling that Sony is going to see an increase in marketshare through this home console generation in all regions. Largest upticks I expect from Europe and America. A gain of at least 20 million units in each.
But this may just be me looking for hope in a dwindling market. One that has brought me so many tens of thousands of hours of entertainment.
If PS4 sells around 15 million lifetime that would be great .
It should be noted if it sells that much it would still rank 2nd or 3rd best country for sales even if the market shirks .
For me i think it going to sell as much as PS3 but the up take going to be faster still i hope for more.
If it does worst than PS3 then people that like Japanese games like me going to be in a world of hurt .
I think if Sony is smart they'll divert stock back to North America for March. If demand is still strong and could beat the Xbox One during Titanfall launch month, it would be a huge PR victory.
If PS4 sells around 15 million lifetime that would be great .
It should be noted if it sells that much it would still rank 2nd or 3rd best country for sales even if the mark shirks .
For me i think it going to sell as much as PS3 but the up take going to be faster still i hope for more.
If it does worst than PS3 then people that like Japanese games like me going to be in a world of hurt .
Even if it sells at PS3 levels you're talking an unacceptable level of market contraction. From 23.5 million units down to 14 million units. It selling under that would mean... well... "What's the point?"
Homes consoles would see pretty much zero support unless completely focused on the west.
Even if it sells at PS3 levels you're talking an unacceptable level of market contraction. From 23.5 million units down to 14 million units. It selling under that would mean... well... "What's the point?"
Homes consoles would see pretty much zero support unless completely focused on the west.
Even I can dabble in hyperbole occasionally can't I?
It's either figs or serious with you guys. I'm just saying that a contraction of that level in the home console arena may cause publishers to be hesitant about green-lighting any support for such a small market. Even if the spread is like 66% Sony 32% Ninty 1% MS 26% unrealistic expectations.
Even if it sells at PS3 levels you're talking an unacceptable level of market contraction. From 23.5 million units down to 14 million units. It selling under that would mean... well... "What's the point?"
Homes consoles would see pretty much zero support unless completely focused on the west.
The PS3 gets plenty of support at 9m sold. The Japanese home console market for third parties was never as high as you are saying. The Wii was basically irrelevant for the majority of publishers. If the PS4 manages to get to 14m that would be a net gain for Japanese publishers.
I think Japan will surprise everyone. They've been following how well it is going in the west and getting the thirst, so my prediction is really otherworldy: 850k units in the first 24 hours. Every single console in Japan sold out.
I think Japan will surprise everyone. They've been following how well it is going in the west and getting the thirst, so my prediction is really otherworldy: 850k units in the first 24 hours. Every single console in Japan sold out.
I think Japan will surprise everyone. They've been following how well it is going in the west and getting the thirst, so my prediction is really otherworldy: 850k units in the first 24 hours. Every single console in Japan sold out.
I think Japan will surprise everyone. They've been following how well it is going in the west and getting the thirst, so my prediction is really otherworldy: 850k units in the first 24 hours. Every single console in Japan sold out.
Even if it sells at PS3 levels you're talking an unacceptable level of market contraction. From 23.5 million units down to 14 million units. It selling under that would mean... well... "What's the point?"
Homes consoles would see pretty much zero support unless completely focused on the west.
Right now PS3 is getting load of games and unlike the rest of the world the Wii was a non factor there .
PS4 selling as much as PS3 but faster means i can still get all the Japanese games i getting now .
Something like tales series will stay on consoles and with PS4 being easier to program even better since they don't use much system power and i get better looking game.
The PS3 gets plenty of support at 9m sold. The Japanese home console market for third parties was never as high as you are saying. The Wii was basically irrelevant for the majority of publishers. If the PS4 manages to get to 14m that would be a net gain for Japanese publishers.
I think more important is how quickly PS4 can reach the goal of 3m, 5m, 7m ... Once the userbase is there quickly i think publishers will automatically switch to PS4... if i remember correctly PS3 was off to a very slow start especially in Japan which meant that it took a long time for it to have a reasonable user base for publishers to switch to PS3..I think the life time sales is not as important a factor.
I think Japan will surprise everyone. They've been following how well it is going in the west and getting the thirst, so my prediction is really otherworldy: 850k units in the first 24 hours. Every single console in Japan sold out.
Some people are too optimistic when it comes to the console market in Japan..
I would love to see the resurgence of it but I don't think it will happen. The PS4 is a westernized console in comparison with it's predecessors.
Those "consoles are d00med everywhere" sayers on the other hand...uhh..
I'd say a lot of people are pessimistic about the console market in Japan too. It's almost as if there are lots of opinions out there, Personally everytime someone suggests numbers lower than 300k at launch, I wonder why they think it will do worse than the Wii U.
