Is there a tool to create such a diagram? I would like to include something like that in a presentation ^^
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What do we expect of lifetime sales from PS4/Xbone/Wii U?
- Thread starter Phediuk
- Start date
Is there a tool to create such a diagram? I would like to include something like that in a presentation ^^
My prediction from a similar thread back in November:
Though, that's how much I'm predicting all three would have sold in five years since the launch of both PS4 and Xbox One.
Thus is my favourite one, totally divorced from reality.
PS4 will do about double XBO by the end, and Wii U will be stuck at 12-15.
prag16
Banned
To be honest, and I think Aquamarine broke this down a few pages ago, the lowest floor that's really realistic barring some unforseen catastrophe (e.g. Nintendo pulling the plug a year from now and launching the successor in Q4 2015) is around 12 million. It has a good chance of getting to your 9 million number in 2014. And then less than two years from now it'll likely be under $200 bundled with Kart, Smash, or SM3DW.
I have this topic bookmarked; it'll be a fun one to come back to way down the line.
"Divorced from reality" I agree, your's isn't far off that either.
You don't think MS isn't going to fight hard for US?
After all the bad press, higher price, ect it's about 300k off PS4 there. MS can easily claw it back if they make the right moves and soon.
Japan is shrinking, PS4 is getting the 10m PS3 got even with 80% of the market,
Europe it'll dominate, but it's nowhere big enough for it to be double XB1 sales when they're flat/behind in the US/UK.
PS4: 80 mln
Xbone: 50 mln
WiiU: 14 mln
I think that if PS4 kept this pace actually it would get to 100mln like Wii and Psone, I just have a bad feeling it will start to decline in 2 years simply due to home console sales declining.
For example sales in Japan so far are already pretty bad...
Xbone: 50 mln
WiiU: 14 mln
I think that if PS4 kept this pace actually it would get to 100mln like Wii and Psone, I just have a bad feeling it will start to decline in 2 years simply due to home console sales declining.
For example sales in Japan so far are already pretty bad...
I think Japan not being too excited about it will make it harder to match PS3 numbers, actually.PS4: 80 mln
Xbone: 50 mln
WiiU: 14 mln
I think that if PS4 kept this pace actually it would get to 100mln like Wii and Psone, I just have a bad feeling it will start to decline in 2 years simply due to home console sales declining.
For example sales in Japan so far are already pretty bad...
it's possible. I still think they'll do it because PS3 started pretty bad in the USA, right? So I think they'll compensate with that...If those numbers are accurate I'll buy another one of each just to prove you wrong.
I LOVE how this and almost every other post has absolutely no consideration towards emerging technologies and how the industry may change as a whole via the competition of new devices, platforms and mediums
XBO sales have been front loaded, and the sales difference outside the US, and in it, will mount up over the course of the generation. PS4 sales are more consistent and early dominance creates a go-to platform effect. That will be hard for Microsoft to counter, and VR hype will have a halo affect on the PS4 of being the more future proof and cutting edge platform.
Too early to call for sure but I do think it's going to be an ever widening gap. It's a high-stakes game and Microsoft couldn't afford to stumble, even if they recovered as best they could.
So yeah PS4 doubling XBO isn't out of the question at all really, the bigger question is how down in general the whole market will be.
First of all: amazing post!
I would lower the estimates of Xbox to some 45M, though. Could be lower. It's really not that attractive deal in Europe, and I struggle to see, how its value proposition could be improved. So maybe 9M cut from the European figure. And since single console purchasers are more likely to select PS4 this time around, I can see Xbox ending up with PS3 numbers.
This looks like I'm estimating even more severe contraction of the market.
PS3 is only sitting at 10M in Japan. With Final Fantasy XV, Kingdom Hearts 3, and whatever Capcom, Sega, etc put out for the system, it's not like the PS4 is going to sell sub-gamecube numbers LTD. If there is a Japanese drop from PS3 to PS4, it will be less than 5M. Do you really think it is impossible for Sony to make that up elsewhere?
Actually, at 80M, the PS4 will be down from the PS3, which is probably looking at a 90M finish or so.
RobFox64tm
Member
What an individual feels about each piece of hardware doesn't equate to what that hardware will sell. Too many of these predictions aren't looking broadly enough beyond personal tastes. I think it's highly unlikely that A) the Xbox One will outsell the PS4, B) the Vita will outsell the Wii U, and C) that we'll have total hardware sales numbers coming anywhere near what they were in the PS2 era. It's nice to want things to turn out a certain way, but these predictions, as of right now, are completely baseless.
Honestly his numbers seem very reasonable to me. Care to explain? You mean you think PS4 sales will collapse? Yeah maybe they're a bit high but it doesn't seem like he threw something crazy.
edit: whoops sorry for the double post
I honestly don't see any of the three consoles hitting 100M units before this generation is up. The console market is retracting, and if this trend accelerates before the end of this generation we could be looking at the PS4 only matching the PS3's 80M figure at the top end.
Hell, it's probable that the performance of consoles this gen will determine whether there will be successors to these. Between the ever encroaching mobile and its free/cheap low end offerings and the constant, militant drumbeat of the PC crowd the big 3 have difficult times ahead.
Hell, it's probable that the performance of consoles this gen will determine whether there will be successors to these. Between the ever encroaching mobile and its free/cheap low end offerings and the constant, militant drumbeat of the PC crowd the big 3 have difficult times ahead.
LordOcidax
Member
PS4: 60M
XO: 40M
WIIU: 25M
3DS:70M
VITA:17M
XO: 40M
WIIU: 25M
3DS:70M
VITA:17M
Honestly his numbers seem very reasonable to me. Care to explain? You mean you think PS4 sales will collapse? Yeah maybe they're a bit high but it doesn't seem like he threw something crazy.
edit: whoops sorry for the double post
No not at all, in fact the opposite could happen.
There are many new things coming out that we know little about now all with at least a partial focus on gaming. Amazon have Fire TV, Google are bringing their own box out that was leaked on the Verge, Apple are rumoured to have one on the way expected to be announced their wwdc in a few months, steam machines are believed to be on the way around end of the year, then Virtual Reality gets into swing next year for PS4 and PC but Apple are also working on something similar, and we have no idea whether these will be targeted at their respective living room machine as well. Not to mention what ever else comes along.
Of course a lot of these seem low powered or niche, but it is important to understand how that landscape is rapidly changing as well as TV as a whole. It all could go either way, perhaps boosting the number of gamers as a whole even for consoles, or as these devices mature they could eat a significant chunk of the market as a whole. If you were to take a decade long perspective, there is a lot of room for change. Just as I wouldn't rule out the potential of all these platforms, I wouldn't rule out the consoles or even the xbox one or whatever nintendo decide to do.
Extrapolating sales via the data from the last consoles and what has happened ONLY in the console space is just odd to me. These devices are all going to pose some influence on each other, whether you deem them shit or casual or whatever, they itterate a lot quicker than the consoles. It's hard to say what they will represent in 10 years
I really don't see the Xbone closing any gap with PS4. Quite the opposite. Now's the time for them to perform best, when they've got a stronger launch window lineup and the market isn't well-educated that there's a clear power gap between the two systems. Once third parties really start cranking up their next-gen output, it's going to become more and more common knowledge that PS4 versions of multiplats perform better on average, and that ain't gonna be pretty for Xbone's perception.
Dude, the battle for the living room is already over. And it isn't Live TV (because that model's already outdated as hell). It's streaming on devices like mobile & tablets.
Plus nobody cares about Kinect anymore. There's no way that Xbox One will sell 200 million off of what you said. Not even PS2 did.
Just because Microsoft has a load of money, doesn't mean that they can automatically spend it on the Xbox brand or anything else if it doesn't make back a return in profits.
Great post, dude. I agree with a lot of your assertions.
I think the total for this generation will fall slightly above the PS3 and 360's combined 160 Million, but with very different distribution. The loss of the Wii will definitely bring market contraction, but I don't believe that it will continue to contract enough to affect the Xbox and Playstation audiences. I think that this generation, in terms of sales distribution and popularity of each console, slightly mirrors the fifth generation.
I would be genuinely surprised if the PS4 bottomed out before reaching the PS1's 100 million units.
PS4: 110 Million
Xbox One: 40 Million (the PS4's fierce competition in the US and UK will cut deep)
Wii U: 12 Million
GenericUser
Member
PS4 - 110M
XBOXOne - 60M
WiiU 10M
My guess
XBOXOne - 60M
WiiU 10M
My guess
Manmademan
Member
What emerging technologies? Tablets and smartphones are mature technology in most of the world.
We've been seeing the impact of such devices since the iPad and iPhone launches. Dedicated handhelds had their market devastated, as did the Wii. Dedicated consoles were completely unaffected. There have been many, many threads on this subject and all came to the same conclusion. Consoles and smart devices are appealing to two totally different markets.
Not one single fan shelling out 59.99 for Madden, GTA, and Battlefield is saying "you know what? I'm good with candy crush on this iPhone."
The only possible contender could be steam machines, but it's more likely these units are going to be taking marketshare from gaming PC's, since consoles will always be cheaper with more exclusive first party content.
SimpleGamer
Member
If the generation is 6-7 years
ps4-100m
Xbox One 80-90m
Wii U 20m
Really can't see a huge gap between the ps4 and Xbone at the end of the generation especially if a price drop happens for the xbone.
ps4-100m
Xbox One 80-90m
Wii U 20m
Really can't see a huge gap between the ps4 and Xbone at the end of the generation especially if a price drop happens for the xbone.
PlumCantaloupe
Member
Steamboxes have huge potential of disrupting the "Xbox/Sony" AAA market.
Edit: It all depends on support but there seems to be a lot of interest towards now supporting Linux on Kickstarters and all major game engines. Also, if graphics do matter as much as everyone suggests they do, Steamboxes can look better and still be cheap within a couple of years.
Shining Sunshine
Banned
No hard numbers from me, but PS4 will definitely more than double Xbone. It's the current trend, and PS3 caught up to 360 last gen with better games.
Xbone has less exclusive development (like last gen), and it's even losing third party support for multiplatform games (like Spiderman2).
Xbone has less exclusive development (like last gen), and it's even losing third party support for multiplatform games (like Spiderman2).
SecretSquirrel
Neo Member
PS4:90M
XB1:80M
WIu:16M
This gen is going to be close for Sony and MS. M$ has the ability to give the XBone a price advantage over the PS4 anytime they desire.
XB1:80M
WIu:16M
This gen is going to be close for Sony and MS. M$ has the ability to give the XBone a price advantage over the PS4 anytime they desire.
Ascenion
Member
PS4: 65-75M
XOne: 45-60M
Wii U: 15-25M
3DS: 70M
Vita: 15M
Reasoning is that obviously the Xbox One will lessen the gap but there will always be a gap and I think 15mil is conservative. PS4 has a lot of steam but it can't maintain this pace for ever plus I see this being a short gen compared to the last one. Wii U numbers are based around the need for Nintendo to ride this out, otherwise I see the same thing happening again. As for launching QoL in 2016....if it's on par it's already behind PS5 and NextBox. I'd launch the next handheld and use its sales to just deal console wise until 2018 when this likely ends and come out guns blazing.
XOne: 45-60M
Wii U: 15-25M
3DS: 70M
Vita: 15M
Reasoning is that obviously the Xbox One will lessen the gap but there will always be a gap and I think 15mil is conservative. PS4 has a lot of steam but it can't maintain this pace for ever plus I see this being a short gen compared to the last one. Wii U numbers are based around the need for Nintendo to ride this out, otherwise I see the same thing happening again. As for launching QoL in 2016....if it's on par it's already behind PS5 and NextBox. I'd launch the next handheld and use its sales to just deal console wise until 2018 when this likely ends and come out guns blazing.
Banjo-Kazooie
Member
Manmademan
Member
I addressed those. Steam machines CANT end up cheaper than the ps4 and xbone. Sony and MS have the luxury of selling those at a loss, and making back the profit on the games and services.
The steam machine model doesn't allow for this. Each manufacturer is going to have to build in a margin, since they don't get a cut of steam sales.
On top of that, Sony and MS both have a lot of exclusive franchises that will never appear on steam, and psn and xbla are very good at locking in users to their services. It's very unlikely anyone who was already invested in either ecosystem is going to drop them for a steam machine.
Top all that off with the steamboxes not having a fraction of a FRACTION of Sony or MS marketing budget and this game is over.
They will appeal to gamers interested in PC centric franchises that want more usability, or gamers interested in customization or just new gadgets in general. These gamers are likely already PC gamers or invested in that ecosystem if those things are at all important.
Gonzo The Great
Banned
3DS: 70M
PS4: 80M
PSV: 12M (discontinued in 2015)
Wii U: 15M (discontinued in 2016)
XB1: 30M
PS4: 80M
PSV: 12M (discontinued in 2015)
Wii U: 15M (discontinued in 2016)
XB1: 30M
PS4: 80M
XO: 65M
WiiU: 12M
I think the PS4 is going to eat into the XO's potential a little, at least enough so that we can't end up with a "tie" like we did last generation.
The Wii U is going to drop off a lot faster than people expect, I feel, due to general Wii fatigue, a result of Wii U not being different enough from the Wii.
XO: 65M
WiiU: 12M
I think the PS4 is going to eat into the XO's potential a little, at least enough so that we can't end up with a "tie" like we did last generation.
The Wii U is going to drop off a lot faster than people expect, I feel, due to general Wii fatigue, a result of Wii U not being different enough from the Wii.
Where do people come up with this shit? MS doesn't have infinite money and they want Xbox division to be profitable. Considering the xbbone costs around a hundred bucks more to make than the PS4, designed by Sony for quick price drops, this idea is ridiculous.
You seem to not know how gaps work. Hear me out, i'm an expert.
Every month, if Sony sells more than the Xbox One in the same month worldwide, the gap grows.
If PS4 sells 300k in a month, and the X1 sells 250k, then the total sales gap increases with 50k between the two.
Do tell.
QuantumZebra
Member
Being that X1 is not available in near as many countries and the PS4 leads in the U.S. is well, it is highly likely there could be a bigger disparity than seen in previous generations.
Exactly how so many people forget this. If Microsoft were to freely spend their money on the Xbox brand, then Xbox One would've been way more powerful than PS4 is, & more.
They can't just easily do what they did with the Original Xbox & Xbox 360 anymore & take tons of losses. Those days are over.
Lets watch VR and AR, and lets watch what the potential of living room machines governing TV viewing along with a myriad of other services as well as supplementing with gaming. VR has pretty wide ranging implications and has the power to drive industries that wouldn't typically have programmers, engineers, designers, artists etc synonymous with gaming, to start taking more of them on board.
You assume that these TV boxes from apple, google, amazon etc as well as mobile will sit at the same graphical fidelity for over a decade? I would not count on that at all. Particularly with the living room boxes, they are not going to just target TV but all manner or streaming services along with gaming. I wouldn't be surprised to see them invest in more powerful machines as time moves on and these machine become common place. And of course steam machines seem a lost cause right? We'll see how that turns out in 10 years. Of course all of this is hypothetical, but the investments are there and this is the first time many of these big players are actually dedicated to serving "the biggest screen in the house" also often where the console sits. It is unknown whether this is of benefit to consoles or detriment
They should buy all the Xbox ones themselves with that bottomless warchest.
"SUCK IT NPD, XBOX WON - USA USA USA"
Wickerbasket
Member
shinra-bansho
Member
Japan:
Shipped at 31st December 2013 = 1.75M
LTD sold-through at 30th March 2014 = 1.69M
The Americas:
Shipped at 31st December 2013 = 2.61M
LTD sold-through US NPD at 5th April 2014 = 2.3M
+ 10% as an estimate of Canada = 2.53M
Other:
Shipped at 31st December 2013 = 1.49M
LTD sold-through = ?
I.e. at least based on the US and Japanese sales figures we get the answer is no, they likely still haven't sold through the 5.86M units shipped through the end of the last CY. We'll see in a couple of weeks, but given the above there wasn't much of a need for a channel refill in the past quarter, so I'd expect weak shipment numbers. I'm somewhat doubtful about whether the system will even hit the 6M shipped number that people keep stating in the fiscal year.
I think that number was 'sold' back in 2013.
Unknown One
Member
Wickerbasket
Member
It was 5.86 million shipped as of January 2014, taken from Nintendo's earnings report.
When they say sold, they mean sold to retailers.
Also, thanks for this. That was a pretty informative post.